What do Duck Dynasty, Macklemore and Ryan Lewis, and Tanner Roark all have in common: Each entered the year with little fanfare and finished 2013 household names.  While I will not pretend to be able to select the next rising star in the world of television or music, I will, however, try to identify which Nationals prospect or prospects will emerge in 2014.

After scouring the Nationals minor league system and reviewing my scouting notes, these are four names that fans should be on high-alert for unexpected breakout seasons next year. 

                Brandon Miller                 OF

Miller, the Nationals 4^th round pick in 2012, hit 20 home runs in 2013, yet stayed relatively anonymous due to his age (he’s 24) and his tendency to swing-and-miss with 164 strikeouts in 505 at-bats in 2013.  In addition Miller lost a considerable amount of weight during last summer, sapping much of his power toward the end of the year.  A strong defender in right field due to his average speed and massive throwing arm, if Miller can start making more contact, he could be another in the long line of late-blooming corner outfielders for Washington. 

                Adrian Nieto                      Catcher

An overslot selection in the 5^th round of the 2008 draft, Nieto has matured slowly as he has climbed the organizational ladder, but performed well in 2013 in High-A with a .285/.373/.449 batting line and 11 home runs.  Nieto then followed up this season with a quality performance in the Arizona Fall League, hitting .271 and playing solid defense behind the plate.  Now 24-years-old, Nieto will face a difficult challenge in his first taste of Double-A pitching in 2014, but he has talent and is slowly starting to turn this talent into production. 

                Pedro Severino                                 Catcher

A truly superb defensive catcher, the 20-year-old Severino could already be the best defender in the farm system as he has a powerful arm, blocks pitches well in the dirt, and is a quiet receiver behind the plate.  Severino spent all of last season in Low-A Hagerstown and held his own offensively, hitting .241/.274/.333.  Severino could return to Hagerstown to begin 2014, but should see time in High-A Potomac next season and should be the top catching prospect in the farm system this time next winter. 

                Austin Voth                        RHP

The Nationals 5^th round pick this past summer, Voth owns a solid three-pitch mix with a low-to-mid-90s fastball, a sharp biting slider, and decent changeup.  As a polished college pitcher, Voth should begin next season in Low-A Hagerstown and move to High-A Potomac by midsummer.  Scouts question whether Voth will remain a starter as he climbs the professional ladder or if he eventually reverts to the bullpen; either way, Voth looks like a steal in Round 5 and has a chance to move quickly through the minor leagues.

Honorable Mention:

Destin Hood OF, Estarlin Martinez OF, Narciso Mesa OF, Nick Pivetta RHP, and John Simms RHP

Last winter most people saw the Nationals roster pretty well spoken for, and with little room for anyone besides perhaps top prospect Anthony Rendon to warrant any significant playing time.  Unfortunately due to multiple injuries to the pitching staff, last season the Nationals received unexpected production from young players Taylor Jordan, Ian Krol, and Tanner Roark.  Each player to a degree was off the organizational radar this time last year, yet each played a vital role for the Nationals in 2013. 

Today I try to identify a few names that could play a positive role for the Nationals in 2014.  Like Rendon this time last year, many would immediately mention prospects such as AJ Cole, Lucas Giolito, or Robbie Ray to play a similarly impactful role in Washington next season, but these are some other players that could earn significant playing time in 2014.

5)            Zach Walters

Walters received a September promotion to Washington after a strong season in Triple-A Syracuse, batting .253/.286/.517 with 29 home runs.  With Danny Espinosa a likely trade candidate, and the injury history of Ian Desmond and particularly Anthony Rendon, Walters is only one injury away from seeing significant playing time in the middle infield next season. 

4)            Robert Benincasa

The Nationals 7^th round pick in 2012 from Florida State University, Benincasa had a successful 2013 across both levels of A-ball, pitching 51 innings and posting a 3.00 ERA with 64 strikeouts and 27 saves.  With a 92-94mph fastball described as “heavy” and an above-average slider, Benincasa should start next season as the closer in Double-A, and could find himself in Washington sometime in 2014. 

3)            Steven Souza Jr.

Recently added to the 40-man roster to shield him from the upcoming Rule 5 draft, Souza has begun to put his immense tools into production, hitting .300/.396/.557 with 15 home runs in 77 games in 2013.   Drafted by Washington in the 3^rd round in 2007, Souza has impressive tools and could be the latest in a trend of late-blooming power hitting corner outfielders (Mike Morse / Tyler Moore) for the Nationals.    

2)            Aaron Barrett

Another late-round pitching gem mined by the Nationals, Barrett was the team’s 9^th round pick in the 2011 draft from the University of Mississippi.  Armed with a low-90s fastball and a devastating slider, Barrett overwhelmed Double-A hitters this season with a 2.15 ERA, 69 strikeouts, and 26 saves in 50.1 innings pitched.  Barrett should start next season as the closer in Syracuse, and could be the first option if any of the right-handed relievers end up on the disabled list. 

1)            Sammy Solis

Solis has battled injuries since being drafted in the 2^nd round by the Nationals in 2010, undergoing Tommy John surgery which caused him to miss all of 2012 and pitch only 59.2 innings in 2013.  However, Solis has pitched well in the Arizona Fall League, making a favorable impression with a 2.17 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 29 innings pitched.  A polished left-handed pitcher with a solid low-90s fastball, curveball, and changeup, Solis was mentioned recently by General Manager Mike Rizzo as a possible option as a lefty in the Nationals bullpen next year.  Expect Solis to begin 2014 in the starting rotation in Double-A, and if he can stay healthy, he should debut in Washington sometime late in the season. 

After examining the potential moves to help improve the pitching staff on Monday, today I propose my master plan to bolster the Nationals’ offensively in 2014.  Luckily General Manager Mike Rizzo enters this winter with a brief Wish List offensively, as the starting lineup is generally resolved, and only a few veteran upgrades are needed to round out the bench.

Last season the Nationals struggled offensively, as injuries to Bryce Harper and Wilson Ramos, and poor seasons from Danny Espinosa, Adam LaRoche, and the bench as a whole combined to hurt the production of the offense.  In 2013 the Nationals finished 17^th in team batting average (.251), 18^th in team on-base percentage (.313), 15^th in runs scored (656), 13^th in home runs (161), and 13^th in slugging percentage (.398).  This compares unfavorably to their 2012 results of 9^th in BA (.261), 12^th in OBP (.322), 10^th in runs (731), 8^th in homers (194), and 6^th in slugging (.428).

As a consequence of their mediocre offensive production, the Nationals finished with a rather disappointing 86-76 record last season and failed to reach the postseason.  In order for the Nationals to recapture the NL East division championship and potentially reach the 2014 World Series, the offense must play closer to their 2012 performance. 

Monday, in Part 1, we spent a hypothetical $51.175 million on the pitching staff, leaving us approximately $77.825 million to stay within the hypothetical $129 million dollar payroll I have guesstimated for the Nationals in 2014.  In this project, I have kept the starting lineup intact, instead preferring to focus on improving the bench overall and assuming more productive seasons for many of the starters. 

Hypothetical Payroll ->                                          $ 129 million ($118.29 million in 2013)

My Transactions:

#1           Traded RHP Ryan Mattheus and RHP Robert Benincasa to Minnesota for OF Ryan Doumit

#2           Traded 2B Danny Espinosa to Toronto for LHP Brett Cecil

#3           Signed Catcher John Buck, 1-year $2.5 million

****

Starting Lineup

Catcher –                                              Wilson Ramos                                   $2.1 million

First Base –                                          Adam LaRoche                                  $12 million

Second Base –                                      Anthony Rendon                             $1.8 million

Shortstop –                                          Ian Desmond                                     $6.9 million

Third Base –                                        Ryan Zimmerman                            $14 million

Left Field –                                           Bryce Harper                                     $2.15 million

Center Field –                                     Denard Span                                      $6.5 million

Right Field –                                        Jayson Werth                                    $20.571 million

                                                            Starting Lineup Salary Total =  $66.021 million

Struggling with injuries much of the season, Wilson Ramos made a strong impression in the second half of last year hitting .261 with 12 home runs and playing excellent defense behind the plate.  Questions exist if Ramos can stay healthy and play a full season, but this is the only knock on one of the best young catchers in baseball.  Ramos should be the Nationals opening day catcher in 2014, and man the position much of the rest of the decade. 

After a truly masterful season in 2012 with 33 home runs and a 6^th place finish in the NL MVP voting, Adam LaRoche significantly regressed in 2013, hitting only .237/.332/.402 with 20 home runs.  LaRoche, a notoriously streaky hitter, can carry an offense when healthy, and is perhaps the best defensive first baseman in the majors.  Now 34-years-old his best playing days are likely behind him, but if LaRoche can rebound offensively next season, it would be an enormous help to the National’s offense.

Anthony Rendon entered last season as the Nationals top prospect and blocked at third base by Ryan Zimmerman, and finished the year as the team’s starting second baseman of the future.  Certainly Danny Espinosa’s struggles contributed, but Rendon’s sweet swing helped force a rapid promotion and position switch.  Rendon acclimated well, hitting .265 with 7 home runs and played surprisingly good defense at second base.  Rendon is a key player for the Nationals next season, because if he can avoid the dreaded sophomore slump, his bat could lengthen a potentially impressive lineup.

Shortstop belongs to underrated Ian Desmond, the 2012 and 2013 Silver Slugger award winner, who is coming off another 20-20 season, hitting .280/.331/.453 with 20 home runs and 21 stolen bases this season.  In addition, Desmond has improved defensively, as his lengthy midseason errorless game streak shows.  Desmond is one of the best shortstops in baseball and a clubhouse leader, and the Nationals would be wise to sign him to a lengthy extension prior to opening day.

The Face of the Franchise, Ryan Zimmerman was slow to recover from offseason shoulder surgery and struggled defensively in the first half of last season.  Zimmerman still finished with another strong season offensively, batting .275/.344/.465 with 25 home runs.  Expect Zimmerman to improve defensively next season, while hitting his usual 25-30 homers; a quiet leader, he is arguably the best third baseman in the National League.

Bryce Harper’s breakout season came to a screeching halt in early May after two separate collisions with an outfield wall, sending him to the disabled list and hindering him the rest of the year.  Harper battled injuries all season to hit .274/.368/.486 with 20 home runs in 118 games.  Having already undergone minor offseason knee surgery, I am expecting a monster season from a fully healthy Harper in 2014.

A critical acquisition last winter from the Minnesota Twins, Denard Span arrived in Washington and played spectacular defense and solidified the revolving door in center field for the Nationals.  Span was somewhat mediocre with the bat, hitting .279/.327/.380 with 20 stolen bases, although a second half batting line of .302/.337/.413 portends improvement in 2014. 

Following an injury-plagued 2012 season, Jayson Werth was truly outstanding in 2013, hitting .318/.398/.532 with 25 home runs and playing quality defense in right field.  At 34-years-old he might be susceptible to nagging injuries in future seasons, but Werth will play right field and hit toward the top of the Nationals lineup in 2014. 

Bench:

A)                                           Scott Hairston                                                   $2 million

B)                                            (Ryan Doumit)                                                 $3.5 million

C)                                            Tyler Moore                                                       $500,000

D)                                           Zach Walters                                                     $500,000

E)                                            (John Buck)                                                       $2.5 million

                                    Reserves Salary Total =                                                  $9 Million

                                   Offense Salary Total =                                                   $ 75.021 Million

                                   Pitching Staff Salary =                                                     $ 51.175 Million

                                   Total 2014 Payroll =                                                $ 126.196 Million

One of the major weaknesses for the 2013 Nationals team was that the bench was woeful, as the major cogs of the bench, namely Roger Bernadina, Steve Lombardozzi, Tyler Moore, and Chad Tracy combined to pinch hit .207/.249/.357 and produce -3 Wins Above Replacement.  In response to this woeful performance, the Nationals are expected to overhaul their bench in hopes of recapturing some of the magic from the Bench Mob of 2012. 

The first move took place last summer, as the Nationals traded the Chicago Cubs for 33-year-old corner outfielder Scott Hairston, a veteran who punishes left-handed pitching with a career .815 OPS.  A valuable presence in the clubhouse, Hairston should also contribute off the bench if used primarily against left-handed pitching.

One upgrade I would like to see the Nationals target would be Minnesota Twins switch-hitter Ryan Doumit, a 32-year-old capable of catching, playing first base and the corner outfield spots.  Doumit has a career batting line of .268/.329/.438 and is signed for one more season at $3.5 million.  Minnesota is not expected to compete next season, and could relish trading Doumit and his salary, for a quality reliever in Ryan Mattheus and pitching prospect Robert Benincasa.

Tyler Moore suffered through a Jekyll and Hyde type season in 2013, hitting .151/.191/283 in the first half before a demotion to Triple-A.  Moore then returned to Washington later in the season and performed well, hitting .344/.375/.459.  With LaRoche now 34-years-old and recovering from offseason surgery, Moore could receive more at-bats at first base than might be expected and his powerful right-handed bat will be an asset off the bench next season.

Zach Walters had a terrific season at Triple-A Syracuse hitting .253/.286/.517 with 29 home runs before forcing a promotion to Washington.  Walters is a switch-hitter with power, speed, and the ability to capably play second base, shortstop, and third base, making him an ideal bench player.  Jeff Kobernus and Steve Lombardozzi will compete with Walters for this utility position, and could fill the role if the Nationals decide the 24-year-old Walters needs more seasoning in the minors.

Considering the injury history of Wilson Ramos, the Nationals should be in the market for a quality, veteran backup catcher this offseason and John Buck would fill the role perfectly.  Buck hit .219/.285/.362 with 15 home runs last season while playing good defense behind home plate.  Sandy Leon and Jhonatan Solano are both solid defensive catchers with questionable hitting ability, and will serve as depth in the minor leagues. 

****

Although rumors are circulating tying the Nationals to elite free agents Robinson Cano and Jacoby Ellsbury, I have assumed for this exercise that these superstars will not fit within the Nationals 2014 budget, and that Washington will not tinker with their starters.  I also believe that the cost, both in dollars and otherwise, is too prohibitive to bring either to Washington, and that the offense will organically be significantly better in 2014.  Bryce Harper should take a major step forward in his development towards becoming a superstar, and the Nationals should get stronger production from the catcher, first base, and second base positions.

Therefore, the only moves I would seek to make would be finding a power-hitting, versatile veteran to lead the bench next season, and sign a proven backup catcher to protect themselves in case of injuries to Wilson Ramos.  Ryan Doumit would be an ideal fit, as his switch-hitting capability and ability to play four defensive positions, including catcher, would give the Nationals a valuable veteran presence off the bench.  In addition, the Nationals should work hard to convince catcher John Buck to bring his talents to Washington, as his defensive ability, home run power, and veteran presence would make him a perfect backup for Ramos. 

In conclusion, this plan for the 2014 offense leaves the Nationals with a strong starting lineup, with seven of the eight hitters capable of 15+ home runs next season, and each player capable of playing average or better defensively.  The bench, a notable weakness for the team in 2013, now has five players with home run power, two switch-hitters and three right-handed bats, and quality defensive players in Buck, Hairston, and Walters.  Also I have stayed well within budget, and have not parted with any premium prospects, leaving the front office in a position of strength if they need to make midseason trades to improve the team.  If the Nationals can execute this plan and keep their hitters off the disabled list, it should be a fun season in Washington next year.