After examining the potential moves to help improve the pitching staff on Monday, today I propose my master plan to bolster the Nationals’ offensively in 2014. Luckily General Manager Mike Rizzo enters this winter with a brief Wish List offensively, as the starting lineup is generally resolved, and only a few veteran upgrades are needed to round out the bench.
Last season the Nationals struggled offensively, as injuries to Bryce Harper and Wilson Ramos, and poor seasons from Danny Espinosa, Adam LaRoche, and the bench as a whole combined to hurt the production of the offense. In 2013 the Nationals finished 17th in team batting average (.251), 18th in team on-base percentage (.313), 15th in runs scored (656), 13th in home runs (161), and 13th in slugging percentage (.398). This compares unfavorably to their 2012 results of 9th in BA (.261), 12th in OBP (.322), 10th in runs (731), 8th in homers (194), and 6th in slugging (.428).
As a consequence of their mediocre offensive production, the Nationals finished with a rather disappointing 86-76 record last season and failed to reach the postseason. In order for the Nationals to recapture the NL East division championship and potentially reach the 2014 World Series, the offense must play closer to their 2012 performance.
Monday, in Part 1, we spent a hypothetical $51.175 million on the pitching staff, leaving us approximately $77.825 million to stay within the hypothetical $129 million dollar payroll I have guesstimated for the Nationals in 2014. In this project, I have kept the starting lineup intact, instead preferring to focus on improving the bench overall and assuming more productive seasons for many of the starters.
Hypothetical Payroll -> $ 129 million ($118.29 million in 2013)
My Transactions:
#1 Traded RHP Ryan Mattheus and RHP Robert Benincasa to Minnesota for OF Ryan Doumit
#2 Traded 2B Danny Espinosa to Toronto for LHP Brett Cecil
#3 Signed Catcher John Buck, 1-year $2.5 million
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Starting Lineup
Catcher – Wilson Ramos $2.1 million
First Base – Adam LaRoche $12 million
Second Base – Anthony Rendon $1.8 million
Shortstop – Ian Desmond $6.9 million
Third Base – Ryan Zimmerman $14 million
Left Field – Bryce Harper $2.15 million
Center Field – Denard Span $6.5 million
Right Field – Jayson Werth $20.571 million
Starting Lineup Salary Total = $66.021 million
Struggling with injuries much of the season, Wilson Ramos made a strong impression in the second half of last year hitting .261 with 12 home runs and playing excellent defense behind the plate. Questions exist if Ramos can stay healthy and play a full season, but this is the only knock on one of the best young catchers in baseball. Ramos should be the Nationals opening day catcher in 2014, and man the position much of the rest of the decade.
After a truly masterful season in 2012 with 33 home runs and a 6th place finish in the NL MVP voting, Adam LaRoche significantly regressed in 2013, hitting only .237/.332/.402 with 20 home runs. LaRoche, a notoriously streaky hitter, can carry an offense when healthy, and is perhaps the best defensive first baseman in the majors. Now 34-years-old his best playing days are likely behind him, but if LaRoche can rebound offensively next season, it would be an enormous help to the National’s offense.
Anthony Rendon entered last season as the Nationals top prospect and blocked at third base by Ryan Zimmerman, and finished the year as the team’s starting second baseman of the future. Certainly Danny Espinosa’s struggles contributed, but Rendon’s sweet swing helped force a rapid promotion and position switch. Rendon acclimated well, hitting .265 with 7 home runs and played surprisingly good defense at second base. Rendon is a key player for the Nationals next season, because if he can avoid the dreaded sophomore slump, his bat could lengthen a potentially impressive lineup.
Shortstop belongs to underrated Ian Desmond, the 2012 and 2013 Silver Slugger award winner, who is coming off another 20-20 season, hitting .280/.331/.453 with 20 home runs and 21 stolen bases this season. In addition, Desmond has improved defensively, as his lengthy midseason errorless game streak shows. Desmond is one of the best shortstops in baseball and a clubhouse leader, and the Nationals would be wise to sign him to a lengthy extension prior to opening day.
The Face of the Franchise, Ryan Zimmerman was slow to recover from offseason shoulder surgery and struggled defensively in the first half of last season. Zimmerman still finished with another strong season offensively, batting .275/.344/.465 with 25 home runs. Expect Zimmerman to improve defensively next season, while hitting his usual 25-30 homers; a quiet leader, he is arguably the best third baseman in the National League.
Bryce Harper’s breakout season came to a screeching halt in early May after two separate collisions with an outfield wall, sending him to the disabled list and hindering him the rest of the year. Harper battled injuries all season to hit .274/.368/.486 with 20 home runs in 118 games. Having already undergone minor offseason knee surgery, I am expecting a monster season from a fully healthy Harper in 2014.
A critical acquisition last winter from the Minnesota Twins, Denard Span arrived in Washington and played spectacular defense and solidified the revolving door in center field for the Nationals. Span was somewhat mediocre with the bat, hitting .279/.327/.380 with 20 stolen bases, although a second half batting line of .302/.337/.413 portends improvement in 2014.
Following an injury-plagued 2012 season, Jayson Werth was truly outstanding in 2013, hitting .318/.398/.532 with 25 home runs and playing quality defense in right field. At 34-years-old he might be susceptible to nagging injuries in future seasons, but Werth will play right field and hit toward the top of the Nationals lineup in 2014.
Bench:
A) Scott Hairston $2 million
B) (Ryan Doumit) $3.5 million
C) Tyler Moore $500,000
D) Zach Walters $500,000
E) (John Buck) $2.5 million
Reserves Salary Total = $9 Million
Offense Salary Total = $ 75.021 Million
Pitching Staff Salary = $ 51.175 Million
Total 2014 Payroll = $ 126.196 Million
One of the major weaknesses for the 2013 Nationals team was that the bench was woeful, as the major cogs of the bench, namely Roger Bernadina, Steve Lombardozzi, Tyler Moore, and Chad Tracy combined to pinch hit .207/.249/.357 and produce -3 Wins Above Replacement. In response to this woeful performance, the Nationals are expected to overhaul their bench in hopes of recapturing some of the magic from the Bench Mob of 2012.
The first move took place last summer, as the Nationals traded the Chicago Cubs for 33-year-old corner outfielder Scott Hairston, a veteran who punishes left-handed pitching with a career .815 OPS. A valuable presence in the clubhouse, Hairston should also contribute off the bench if used primarily against left-handed pitching.
One upgrade I would like to see the Nationals target would be Minnesota Twins switch-hitter Ryan Doumit, a 32-year-old capable of catching, playing first base and the corner outfield spots. Doumit has a career batting line of .268/.329/.438 and is signed for one more season at $3.5 million. Minnesota is not expected to compete next season, and could relish trading Doumit and his salary, for a quality reliever in Ryan Mattheus and pitching prospect Robert Benincasa.
Tyler Moore suffered through a Jekyll and Hyde type season in 2013, hitting .151/.191/283 in the first half before a demotion to Triple-A. Moore then returned to Washington later in the season and performed well, hitting .344/.375/.459. With LaRoche now 34-years-old and recovering from offseason surgery, Moore could receive more at-bats at first base than might be expected and his powerful right-handed bat will be an asset off the bench next season.
Zach Walters had a terrific season at Triple-A Syracuse hitting .253/.286/.517 with 29 home runs before forcing a promotion to Washington. Walters is a switch-hitter with power, speed, and the ability to capably play second base, shortstop, and third base, making him an ideal bench player. Jeff Kobernus and Steve Lombardozzi will compete with Walters for this utility position, and could fill the role if the Nationals decide the 24-year-old Walters needs more seasoning in the minors.
Considering the injury history of Wilson Ramos, the Nationals should be in the market for a quality, veteran backup catcher this offseason and John Buck would fill the role perfectly. Buck hit .219/.285/.362 with 15 home runs last season while playing good defense behind home plate. Sandy Leon and Jhonatan Solano are both solid defensive catchers with questionable hitting ability, and will serve as depth in the minor leagues.
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Although rumors are circulating tying the Nationals to elite free agents Robinson Cano and Jacoby Ellsbury, I have assumed for this exercise that these superstars will not fit within the Nationals 2014 budget, and that Washington will not tinker with their starters. I also believe that the cost, both in dollars and otherwise, is too prohibitive to bring either to Washington, and that the offense will organically be significantly better in 2014. Bryce Harper should take a major step forward in his development towards becoming a superstar, and the Nationals should get stronger production from the catcher, first base, and second base positions.
Therefore, the only moves I would seek to make would be finding a power-hitting, versatile veteran to lead the bench next season, and sign a proven backup catcher to protect themselves in case of injuries to Wilson Ramos. Ryan Doumit would be an ideal fit, as his switch-hitting capability and ability to play four defensive positions, including catcher, would give the Nationals a valuable veteran presence off the bench. In addition, the Nationals should work hard to convince catcher John Buck to bring his talents to Washington, as his defensive ability, home run power, and veteran presence would make him a perfect backup for Ramos.
In conclusion, this plan for the 2014 offense leaves the Nationals with a strong starting lineup, with seven of the eight hitters capable of 15+ home runs next season, and each player capable of playing average or better defensively. The bench, a notable weakness for the team in 2013, now has five players with home run power, two switch-hitters and three right-handed bats, and quality defensive players in Buck, Hairston, and Walters. Also I have stayed well within budget, and have not parted with any premium prospects, leaving the front office in a position of strength if they need to make midseason trades to improve the team. If the Nationals can execute this plan and keep their hitters off the disabled list, it should be a fun season in Washington next year.