Dear Readers,

I hope you are enjoying NatsGM’s 2016 Washington Nationals Prospect Week. Monday we highlighted five potential breakout players in Washington’s system and yesterday we ranked prospects #30-#21 for the Nationals.

Building off yesterday’s column, here are my picks for the current #20-#11 prospects in the Nationals’ organization. Thanks for reading!

Sincerely,
Ryan

#20 – Spencer Kieboom   Catcher

Washington’s 2012 5th round pick, this 24-year-old catcher is an absolute pleasure to watch defensively. Kieboom owns an above-average to plus arm, a quick release and fancy feet, allowing him to routinely post sub-1.9 pop times to second base. He is a quality receiver and shows a knack for blocking errant pitches, making him an easy plus or “60” defensive catcher.

Kieboom, a right-handed swinger, shows decent raw power in batting practice, in addition to reasonable barrel skills and the ability to draw the occasional walk. He does not strike out much and makes contact, but does not make as much hard contact as one might expect with these skills. Looking through an optimistic lens, perhaps Kieboom becomes a “35 hit / 30-35 power” hitter in the big leagues.

His impressive defensive skills should allow him to reach the majors as a capable backup, but his below-average offensive potential limits his overall ceiling. He should begin the year at Double-A and could reach the majors late in September or next season.

#19 – Christopher Bostick   Second Base / Outfield

Acquired from Texas last winter for Ross Detwiler, Bostick had a quietly productive season in 2015 across two levels, slugging 40 extra base hits in 530 at-bats. A right-handed hitter, Bostick has quick wrists and surprising power in his 5-11 185lbs frame. He has plenty of swing-and-miss in his game but he makes up for this deficiency with intriguing power production. Still only 22-years-old, if Bostick can harness his whiff rate this season at Double-A, his offensive numbers could explode.

Defensively Bostick’s athleticism and above-average speed do not translate well, as his fringe-average arm and mediocre hands make him a difficult infield profile. He has played some outfield as well, perhaps portending a future as an offensive-first utility player. His speed, power and defensive versatility will allow him to carve out a major league role, with his ability to manage his strikeouts determining his eventual future.

For more about Bostick, please click here -> http://natsgm.com/2015/09/10/evaluating-washington-nationals-prospect-chris-bostick/

#18 – Blake Perkins   Center Field

Washington’s second 2nd round pick, 69th overall last June, Perkins was selected from an Arizona high school with the reputation as an excellent athlete with terrific speed, but raw baseball skills. His speed, coupled with surprisingly good instincts and a good throwing arm make him a surefire future centerfielder. The present risk in his profile lies with his bat, as the 19-year-old has resumed switch-hitting after abandoning it in high school. The early returns were positive according to reports, but Perkins will need significant at-bats in the minors to refine each swing.

Perkins has a high floor as a prospect due to his base running and defensive value. The Nationals are gambling that with experience and physical maturation he can develop into a potential “45-50 hit / 40 power” batter while playing terrific defense up-the-middle. The risk is large but the reward could be substantial if the production ever matches his tools.

#17 – Austen Williams   Right-Handed Pitcher

Washington’s 6th round pick in 2014, Williams owns a prototypical 6-3 220lbs pitcher’s frame along with a strong 3-pitch arsenal. Williams features a 90-93mph fastball with some cutting movement away from righties, a high-70s curveball with potential to be an solid-average pitch and an inconsistent, firm mid-80s changeup. His mechanics are not the cleanest and he has excess movement throughout, which provides some deception but causes him to struggle with consistency. Still only 23, there is potential for Williams to become a back-end starter in the future, with the downside being a role in middle relief.

#16 – Edwin Lora   Shortstop

Signed as an international free agent in 2012, the 20-year-old Lora is quietly generating his own prospect buzz as the next top middle infield prospect in the Nationals system. Lora possesses a good arm with a quick release and plus speed, allowing him to profile as a long-term shortstop. Offensively his right-handed swing shows reasonable contact skills and current gap power, giving him the possibility of generating some power as he matures physically. Lora should see time in Low-A this season and is a likely top-10 prospect in the system next year.

#15 – Rhett Wiseman   Outfield
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Washington’s 3rd round pick, 103rd overall last June, Wiseman had an impressive 3-year career at Vanderbilt, helping them win the College World Series. The left-handed hitting Wiseman has legitimate bat speed and the ability to draw a walk, yet struggles with strikeouts. If he can trim the whiffs as a professional, he could develop into a “50 hit / 45-50 power” type hitter.

Defensively Wiseman uses his solid-average speed and average arm to play all three outfield positions, though he fits best as a corner outfielder, preferably in left field. Wiseman has a high floor as a prospect with a good chance to reach the majors – his ability to make contact will decide if his role is as a backup or a league-average starter.

#14 – Rafael Bautista Center Field

Signed from the Dominican in 2012 as an international free agent, Bautista has steadily risen through the farm system before struggling in 2015 with injuries. Defensively Bautista is outstanding in center field due to his plus speed, excellent instincts and solid-average arm. He needs additional game experience but the 22-year-old projects as a future “60” defender.

In the box Bautista’s skills lag behind his defense, though he shows a knack for making contact and the ability to get on-base. Bautista, a right-handed hitter, will pull the rare home run, but knows his role as a leadoff hitter. He focuses on making contact and utilizing his speed to put pressure on the opposition. Bautista is still quite raw and lost quite a bit of development time in 2015, but could become a “45 hit / 30 power” hitter in the future.

A captivating prospect due to his tools, elite speed and defensive potential, Bautista is still quite raw in terms of baseball skills and the loss of development time last year adds risk to this profile. If he can put the injuries behind him, Bautista still has the chance to become a starter in center who hits at the bottom of the order. This season is critical in his development, but the injuries have made Bautista a bit of a sleeper in the Nationals’ organization.

For further information -> http://natsgm.com/2015/09/09/evaluating-potomac-nationals-cf-rafael-bautista/

#13 – Osvaldo Abreu   Shortstop / Second Base

Another under-the-radar signing from the Dominican Republic, the 21-year-old Abreu is beginning to make a name for himself as a quality middle infield prospect. The right-handed hitter had an impressive 2015 at Hagerstown, hitting .274/.357/.412 batting line with 45 extra base hits and 30 stolen bases in 123 games. Abreu has evident plus speed, solid contact skills and some emerging thump in his bat.  With further experience, Abreu projects as a potential “50+ hit / 35 power” hitter.

In the field Abreu shows a solid-average to above-average arm and nimble feet for the position, though he does not have the elite tools most expect from a major league shortstop. Nevertheless he profiles as an average defender at shortstop, but has experience at second base and could project as above-average to plus on the right side of the infield.

#12 – Pedro Severino   Catcher

Another terrific defensive backstop in the Nationals’ system, Severino has earned the reputation as one of the better defensive catchers currently in the minors. He has a plus arm along with a quick release, allowing him to routinely post sub-1.95 second pop times. Severino is an excellent athlete for a catcher and shows the potential to be a quality receiver. He needs some additional repetitions for experience but Severino projects as a “6” defender.

The 22-year-old Severino is still quite raw offensively, possessing some bat speed in his right-handed swing and shows some pull power during batting practice. He also will take a walk, but has struggled to turn these skills into in-game production. His swing does not show any obvious flaws, besides perhaps some length, but Severino does not project better than a “35-40 Hit / “30 Power” hitter.

Signed by the Nationals for $55,000 as an international free agent from the Dominican Republic, Severino is yet another terrific find by the team’s scouting department. He currently profiles as a strong backup catcher or weak-side platoon player, but could develop into a starting caliber player if the bat shows improvement.

For more about Severino, please click here – http://natsgm.com/2015/09/18/scouting-notes-on-washington-nationals-prospect-pedro-severino/

#11 – Andrew Stevenson   Center Field

The Nationals’ top pick last summer after a distinguished career at LSU, the 21-year-old Stevenson possesses excellent speed, quality baseball instincts and a solid-average arm, making him profile as a future stud in center field. Offensively Stevenson has shown excellent barrel skills and solid bat speed, but to say his swing is unconventional would be like saying Carrot Top has a unique look. He uses an awkward arm bar in his swing, which limits his power and could hinder his ability to hit advanced velocity in the future. That said, rumors have had the Nationals working to refine his swing during instructs last fall.

Stevenson has strong value as a prospect due to his defensive profile in center field, plus speed and past contact skills in the SEC. If he can improve his swing, Stevenson projects as a top-of-the-order hitter who can impact the game in all three phases. He should begin the season at High-A Potomac and has a chance to be a top-5 prospect in the system next year.

Please return tomorrow (2/11) as I unveil my picks for #10-#1… Thanks for reading!

Although 2015 was a disappointing season for the Washington Nationals at the major league level, the organization had yet another successful year at the minor league level. Washington saw the continued development of Lucas Giolito and Wilmer Difo, the arrival of Trea Turner and the prospect breakouts of Victor Robles and Anderson Franco. Additionally the team appears to have done well in the past June draft, selecting outfielders Andrew Stevenson, Blake Perkins, and Rhett Wiseman and finding possible sleepers Koda Glover, Tyler Watson and Max Schrock.

Now only 10 days from the arrival of pitchers and catchers in Viera, this is an appropriate time to analyze the Nationals’ farm system and rank their Top-30 prospects. Today, I unleash my picks for prospects #30-#21 currently in the Washington Nationals’ farm system.

Honorable Mention: Joan Baez RHP, Dale Carey OF, Abel De Los Santos RHP, Robbie Dickey RHP, Matt Grace LHP, Jake Johansen RHP, Nick Lee LHP, Mariano Rivera Jr. RHP, Matt Skole 1B

#30 – Tyler Mapes    Right-Handed Pitcher

Selected in the 30th round in 2014, this 24-year-old is a stocky right-handed pitcher blessed with a solid 3-pitch repertoire featuring a 88-93mph fastball, 75-79mph sweeping slider/slurve and a promising 82-84mph changeup. Mapes has the physical attributes of a starting pitcher, along with the potential for 3 average offerings, giving him a profile as a #5 starter or major league swingman.

To read more about Mapes, please click here -> http://natsgm.com/2015/09/07/scouting-washington-nationals-prospect-tyler-mapes/

#29 – Tyler Watson    Left-Handed Pitcher

Signed for $400,000 as an overslot 34th round pick last summer, Watson spurred a college commitment to Loyola Marymount to sign professionally with Washington. He received a brief cameo with the GCL Nationals late last summer, pitching 13.1 innings and posting a 0.00 ERA and 16 strikeouts against only 4 walks. The 18-year-old lefty features a low-90s fastball, along with a lanky, projectable 6-5 200lbs frame. He should start this year at Short-Season Auburn and could skyrocket up these rankings in 2017.

#28 – Max Schrock    Second Base / Outfielder

Another 2015 overslot selection by Washington, Schrock signed for $500,000 as a 13th round selection out of the University of South Carolina. Schrock, a left-handed hitter, punished the SEC conference for three college seasons, posting an impressive .302/.392/.460 slash line for the Gamecocks. He has a short, compact swing and some raw pull power, along with a keen batting eye.

Schrock will need to hit his way up the organizational ladder, as defensively his fringe-average speed and below-average arm make him a difficult natural profile. That said Schrock is a born hitter and profiles as an offensive-first utility player unless he improves in the field.

#27 – Jefry Rodriguez   Right-Handed Pitcher

Rodriguez suffered through a difficult, injury-plagued 2015, causing him to fall significantly on the list this year. When healthy the converted shortstop will flash an explosive mid-90s fastball and a hard mid-80s curveball. Signed as a non-drafted free agent in 2012, the 22-year-old struggled in 2015, posting a 5.42 ERA in 111.1 innings at Short-Season Auburn and Low-A Hagerstown, allowing 117 hits and 58 walks against 94 strikeouts. Still extremely raw with only 235 career innings pitched, Rodriguez has the potential upside of a #4/#5 starting pitcher or late-inning reliever if things click for him.

#26 – Brian Goodwin   Outfielder

Goodwin was given a $3 million signing bonus as Washington’s third 1st round pick, 34th overall, in the 2011 draft and has struggled to turn his impressive physical tools into on-field production. The 25-year-old centerfielder has posted a career .246/.343/.390 slash line over 1,542 at-bats, causing concern among scouts this left-handed hitter will not hit major league pitching.
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On the other hand, Goodwin is a tremendous athlete who has shown five average or better tools in the past. Also, he was considered extremely raw at draft time and would need more development time than the average prospect to allow his talent to blossom. Finally, Goodwin had a productive winter in Venezuela this offseason, hitting .302 with a .394 on-base percentage in 23 games, giving hope he is having a breakthrough in his development. An extremely risky prospect, Goodwin still has a chance to carve out a lengthy major league career, though likely in a reserve capacity.

#25 – Koda Glover   Right-Handed Pitcher

An 8th round selection last June from Oklahoma State, Glover is a powerfully built 6-5 225lbs right-handed relief pitcher. He possesses a 94-97mph fastball with life and downward plane, along with a solid-average 85-87mph slider. Glover is a pure relief prospect due to his two-pitch arsenal, but there is a chance he develops into a solid 7th or 8th inning reliever. This was a nice find by the Nationals on Day 2 of the draft.

#24 – Raudy Read   Catcher

Signed by the Nationals as an international free agent in 2011, the 22-year-old Read has earned the reputation as a strong catch-and-throw defender with soft hands. Like most young catchers he still needs to refine his footwork, receiving skills and the finer nuisances of the position, but Read shows the potential to be an above-average defender in time. If he continues to develop offensively, Read could develop into a solid backup catcher and/or the weak-side of a platoon in the future.

#23 – John Simms    Right-Handed Pitcher

The 24-year-old Simms has steadily developed from an 11th round pick in 2013 into a potential major league contributor. Simms owns a quality 3-pitch repertoire, featuring an 88-92mph fastball, a high-70s curveball with bite and a promising mid-80s changeup. None of these pitches are above-average but Simms excellent command and control allow them to “play up”. He should begin 2016 at Double-A Harrisburg and projects as a #5 starter or long-reliever in the major leagues.

#22 – Drew Ward    Third Base

The Washington Nationals 3rd Round pick, 105th overall, in the 2013 MLB Draft, Drew Ward was given a well over-slot signing bonus of $850,000 out of a small Oklahoma high school after entering the draft a year early. Ward is a monster figure, looking larger than his listed 6-3 215lbs. In addition he possesses a powerful throwing arm and above-average to plus home run power.

Unfortunately Ward has mediocre speed and quickness, giving scouts concern he may have to move from third base in the future. Additionally his contact issues hinder his ability to flash his impressive raw power in game action. Still only 21-years-old, Ward still has time to refine his current weaknesses and develop into a major league contributor, but there is significant risk in his profile. 2016 is a pivotal year in his development, as he will likely be challenged with a promotion to Double-A Harrisburg.

To read more about Drew Ward, please look here – http://natsgm.com/2015/09/11/scouting-washington-nationals-3b-prospect-drew-ward/

#21 – Juan Soto    Outfielder

In July the Nationals signed this 17-year-old Dominican outfielder to the largest bonus in franchise history with a Latin player, agreeing to terms for $1.5 million. Soto was ranked as the #22 overall international prospect by MLB.com and #13 by Baseball America last summer. A left-handed hitter with obvious bat speed, Soto was clearly one of the top hitting prospects available in the international market in 2015. He is extremely raw but has the potential to develop into a starting corner outfielder in several years.

To read more about Juan Soto, please click here – http://natsgm.com/2015/07/03/scouting-washington-nationals-newest-prospect-of-juan-soto/

Thanks for reading – I will return tomorrow (2/10) with #20-#11 and Thursday (2/11) with #10-#1.

Now that Super Bowl 50 is over (Congratulations to the Advertisers), it is time to shake off our collective hangovers and focus our attention toward the rapidly approaching 2016 baseball season. In order to prepare for pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, only 12 days from today, this week I will evaluate the Washington Nationals’ farm system, counting down the Top-30 prospects currently in their organization.

In the process of ranking their prospects, I realized the Nationals’ minor league affiliates are filled with players who could develop into future major league contributors. Therefore, before unveiling my official list, I wanted to spotlight five players currently outside of my Top-30 that deserve attention within the impressively deep Nationals’ system.

Joan Baez    Right-Handed Pitcher

Signed from the Dominican Republic in April 2014, Joan Baez has been steadily gaining helium as a prospect within the Nationals farm system. The 21-year-old Baez split time between three levels last season, reaching Hagerstown late in the year. Baez struggled with results in 2015 but showed excellent promise as a pitcher. Baez is a well-built and wiry 6-3 190lbs with a 3-pitch repertoire featuring a 92-96mph fastball, a promising upper-70s curveball and a hard mid-80s changeup.

Baez currently struggles repeating his mechanics while maintaining his arm slot, causing him to struggle walking hitters and throwing quality strikes. However, Baez shows current plus fastball velocity and the potential for a future average or better curveball with further refinement, making him profile for a 7th or 8th inning reliever in the future. This is yet another quality, under the radar Latin American signing by the Washington scouting staff.

Dale Carey    Outfielder

Carey was Washington’s 2014 7th round pick as a below-slot senior sign from the University of Miami. Carey is an impressive athlete with above-average to plus speed and a quality arm, allowing him to profile well at all three outfield positions. Offensively Carey struggles with strikeouts, limiting his ability to get on-base and utilize his speed. However he does have fringe average raw power and peppers the gaps when he makes contact. Carey does not have a huge ceiling due to these contact issues, but I expect his defensive versatility, outstanding speed and occasional power will allow him to climb the organizational ladder. Now 24, this is a vital year in Carey’s development and he should begin the season at High-A Potomac.

Alec Keller    Outfielder

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A 17th round pick in 2014 from Princeton, the 23-year-old Keller is a lithe, projectable athlete with obvious athleticism and above-average speed. This left-handed hitting outfielder shows noticeable bat speed and quick, loose wrists. His swing does show some excess length, but his aptitude for barreling the baseball allows him to compensate for this weakness. Despite his 6-2 200lbs frame, Keller has yet to hit a professional home run, putting extreme pressure on his hit tool and ability to get on-base. He shows some occasional pull power during batting practice, but it is difficult to foresee better than a “40/45 Hit – 25 Power” hitter at the big league level.

In the field Keller is a quality defender capable of playing all three outfield positions. He uses his above-average speed and solid instincts to have solid range in the corners, though his lack of elite speed gives him a fringe-average profile in center field. Keller has a solid-average, accurate arm with a quick release, allowing him to profile well in left and center field and fringy in right. Overall Keller projects as above-average in left, fringe-average in right and stretched as below-average in center field.

Odds are Keller’s career stagnates in the upper minors due to his lack of power or elite carrying tool. However, in many ways Keller has already outplayed his draft pedigree as a 17th round senior sign from the Ivy League. Furthermore, Keller is a projectable raw athlete with some 5th outfielder potential if he can gain strength and make some refinements to his swing. While this might sound slightly underwhelming in prospect “circles”, Keller is a nice sleeper prospect for the Nationals and has a chance to reach the majors in a reserve capacity.

Nick Lee    Left-Handed Pitcher

Drafted by Washington in the 18th round of the 2011 draft from Weatherford College in Texas, the Nationals added the 25-year-old to their 40-man roster a few months ago to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. A pure left-handed reliever, Lee possesses a powerful 93-96mph fastball with some movement, along with a hard 79-82mph slider with sharp downward tilt.

Lee spent 2015 pitching for both High-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg, posting a combined 3.12 ERA and 1.404 WHIP over 52 innings pitched, with 57 strikeouts against 33 walks. Lee has excellent pure stuff as evidenced by his career 8.6 H/9 and 0.6 HR/9 ratios, but his difficulty avoiding walks (career 4.8 BB/9 ratio) hinders his overall effectiveness. He will attend spring training with Washington, and I am curious if new pitching coach Mike Maddux can work to improve his mechanics to curb his walks allowed. Lefties with mid-90s velocity are always worth remembering and Lee could see time in Washington’s bullpen sometime in 2016.

Mariano Rivera Jr.    Right-Handed Pitcher

Son of the legendary Yankees’ reliever, Mariano Rivera Jr. was Washington’s 4th round pick last summer from Iona College. A wiry, lean 5-11 155lbs, Rivera Jr. is more than a nod to nostalgia, possessing a 92-95mph fastball with excellent life and a hard breaking low-80s slider. Due to his slender frame and lightning-fast arm speed, scouts project Rivera Jr. to add velocity as a professional. A pure relief prospect, Rivera Jr. should begin the year in Low-A Hagerstown’s bullpen, with the expectation he moves quickly through the Nationals’ farm system this summer. Rivera Jr. profiles as a solid middle reliever in the majors, with the potential for more if his fastball ticks up as he matures physically.