THE 2016 Washington Nationals Breakout Prospects

Early AM Nats Park

Now that Super Bowl 50 is over (Congratulations to the Advertisers), it is time to shake off our collective hangovers and focus our attention toward the rapidly approaching 2016 baseball season. In order to prepare for pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, only 12 days from today, this week I will evaluate the Washington Nationals’ farm system, counting down the Top-30 prospects currently in their organization.

In the process of ranking their prospects, I realized the Nationals’ minor league affiliates are filled with players who could develop into future major league contributors. Therefore, before unveiling my official list, I wanted to spotlight five players currently outside of my Top-30 that deserve attention within the impressively deep Nationals’ system.

Joan Baez    Right-Handed Pitcher

Signed from the Dominican Republic in April 2014, Joan Baez has been steadily gaining helium as a prospect within the Nationals farm system. The 21-year-old Baez split time between three levels last season, reaching Hagerstown late in the year. Baez struggled with results in 2015 but showed excellent promise as a pitcher. Baez is a well-built and wiry 6-3 190lbs with a 3-pitch repertoire featuring a 92-96mph fastball, a promising upper-70s curveball and a hard mid-80s changeup.

Baez currently struggles repeating his mechanics while maintaining his arm slot, causing him to struggle walking hitters and throwing quality strikes. However, Baez shows current plus fastball velocity and the potential for a future average or better curveball with further refinement, making him profile for a 7th or 8th inning reliever in the future. This is yet another quality, under the radar Latin American signing by the Washington scouting staff.

Dale Carey    Outfielder

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Carey was Washington’s 2014 7th round pick as a below-slot senior sign from the University of Miami. Carey is an impressive athlete with above-average to plus speed and a quality arm, allowing him to profile well at all three outfield positions. Offensively Carey struggles with strikeouts, limiting his ability to get on-base and utilize his speed. However he does have fringe average raw power and peppers the gaps when he makes contact. Carey does not have a huge ceiling due to these contact issues, but I expect his defensive versatility, outstanding speed and occasional power will allow him to climb the organizational ladder. Now 24, this is a vital year in Carey’s development and he should begin the season at High-A Potomac.

Alec Keller    Outfielder

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A 17th round pick in 2014 from Princeton, the 23-year-old Keller is a lithe, projectable athlete with obvious athleticism and above-average speed. This left-handed hitting outfielder shows noticeable bat speed and quick, loose wrists. His swing does show some excess length, but his aptitude for barreling the baseball allows him to compensate for this weakness. Despite his 6-2 200lbs frame, Keller has yet to hit a professional home run, putting extreme pressure on his hit tool and ability to get on-base. He shows some occasional pull power during batting practice, but it is difficult to foresee better than a “40/45 Hit – 25 Power” hitter at the big league level.

In the field Keller is a quality defender capable of playing all three outfield positions. He uses his above-average speed and solid instincts to have solid range in the corners, though his lack of elite speed gives him a fringe-average profile in center field. Keller has a solid-average, accurate arm with a quick release, allowing him to profile well in left and center field and fringy in right. Overall Keller projects as above-average in left, fringe-average in right and stretched as below-average in center field.

Odds are Keller’s career stagnates in the upper minors due to his lack of power or elite carrying tool. However, in many ways Keller has already outplayed his draft pedigree as a 17th round senior sign from the Ivy League. Furthermore, Keller is a projectable raw athlete with some 5th outfielder potential if he can gain strength and make some refinements to his swing. While this might sound slightly underwhelming in prospect “circles”, Keller is a nice sleeper prospect for the Nationals and has a chance to reach the majors in a reserve capacity.

Nick Lee    Left-Handed Pitcher

Nick Lee

Drafted by Washington in the 18th round of the 2011 draft from Weatherford College in Texas, the Nationals added the 25-year-old to their 40-man roster a few months ago to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. A pure left-handed reliever, Lee possesses a powerful 93-96mph fastball with some movement, along with a hard 79-82mph slider with sharp downward tilt.

Lee spent 2015 pitching for both High-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg, posting a combined 3.12 ERA and 1.404 WHIP over 52 innings pitched, with 57 strikeouts against 33 walks. Lee has excellent pure stuff as evidenced by his career 8.6 H/9 and 0.6 HR/9 ratios, but his difficulty avoiding walks (career 4.8 BB/9 ratio) hinders his overall effectiveness. He will attend spring training with Washington, and I am curious if new pitching coach Mike Maddux can work to improve his mechanics to curb his walks allowed. Lefties with mid-90s velocity are always worth remembering and Lee could see time in Washington’s bullpen sometime in 2016.

Mariano Rivera Jr.    Right-Handed Pitcher

Son of the legendary Yankees’ reliever, Mariano Rivera Jr. was Washington’s 4th round pick last summer from Iona College. A wiry, lean 5-11 155lbs, Rivera Jr. is more than a nod to nostalgia, possessing a 92-95mph fastball with excellent life and a hard breaking low-80s slider. Due to his slender frame and lightning-fast arm speed, scouts project Rivera Jr. to add velocity as a professional. A pure relief prospect, Rivera Jr. should begin the year in Low-A Hagerstown’s bullpen, with the expectation he moves quickly through the Nationals’ farm system this summer. Rivera Jr. profiles as a solid middle reliever in the majors, with the potential for more if his fastball ticks up as he matures physically.