Introducing THE Top MLB Pitching Prospects

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Yesterday we examined some of the top hitting prospects available in this year’s MLB Draft – today we turn our attention to the mound and the top pitchers to be had in this class. One of the strengths of this draft is college pitching, with an excellent chance 8-10 prospects come off the board in the 1st round.  While I cannot highlight every elite name, these are several of the best arms available, each of whom should be selected on Day 1.

Dillon Tate RHP UC Santa Barbara

After pitching as a closer for UCSB last year and for Team USA last summer, Tate made the transition to Friday night starter this year and has been nothing short of outstanding. Tate features a 94-98mph fastball with life, along with a hard plus slider and a developing changeup. His delivery has a pronounced, high leg kick and plenty of moving parts, but he repeats the motion well and has exceptional arm speed. The only real knocks against Tate are his lack of a track record as a starter and his non-ideal delivery, but he has a chance to develop into a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher and should not escape the top-4 picks in the draft.

Tyler Jay LHP University of Illinois

Considered the top left-handed pitcher in this year’s class, Jay spent the 2015 season serving as the closer for Illinois, rather unusual for a lefty with mid-90s velocity, a monster slider, along with a quality curveball and changeup. While his detractors question if he can be a long-term starter primarily since he has pitched in relief, he should have a fresh arm and could move quickly if a team kept him in a bullpen role. He has a high floor of a dominant reliever, with a strong chance he develops into a #2/#3 starting pitcher.

Walker Buehler RHP Vanderbilt

Buehler entered this season with some consideration for a top-3 selection, after leading Vanderbilt to the NCAA championship last spring, then followed that up with an MVP award in the Cape Cod League playoffs, leading Y-D to the title. Buehler has a low-90s fastball, along with 3 quality offspeed offerings, along with some projection remaining in his lean physique. He has not quite lived up to the hype this season as a junior, though the recent outings have been better. Buehler should come off the board between #10-#20 to a team that prioritizes results and appreciates a projectable pitcher’s body.

These people do not do anything important over the internet, while they lowest priced tadalafil do gaming, watching porn, doing unnecessary activates etc. These delicious flavors helped ED patients to make their treatment more exciting and healthy. viagra professional 100mg In addition audiogram, in some cases, are necessary for imaging cialis usa online diagnostic, such as vascular Doppler, CT or magnetic resonance brain. Since the year when this medicine came in existence, the generic viagra tab medicine is relieving the problem and allowing individuals to love their sexual life. Carson Fulmer RHP Vanderbilt

A smallish but powerfully built right-handed pitcher, Fulmer possesses an impressive 3-pitch mix, featuring a mid-90s fastball with life, a plus curveball with bite and a fringy changeup. His fastball and curveball combination is as good as there is in this draft, but his delivery, physical stature and mediocre changeup lead scouts to question if his future is as a reliever. He throws strikes and repeats his delivery well, giving his supporters reason to believe he will stay in the starting rotation in the pros. Either way, Fulmer has a floor as a late-innings impact relief pitcher and a ceiling as a mid-rotation starting pitcher – He should not escape the top-15 picks next week.

Brady Aiken LHP IMG Academy Bradenton, FL

The number 1 overall selection in last year’s draft, Aiken and the Astros had a major falling out during negotiations, to the point where Aiken passed on signing and enrolled at the IMG Academy in Florida. Since then, Aiken threw one inning for IMG before leaving the mound and soon thereafter, underwent Tommy John surgery. Pre-surgery Aiken had a fastball in the upper-90s, along with three potentially above-average to plus offspeed pitches. Now questions exist which team will gamble on this high-risk/high-reward lefty, with rumors heavily linking him to the Dodgers at #24. However, do not be surprised if a team picks him before the 20s, as he was considered the top prospect in a perceived stronger draft last year.

James Kaprielian RHP UCLA

UCLA’s Friday night starter this season, Kaprielian starred for Team USA last summer and continued his excellence for the Bruins, leading them to an overall #1 national seed in the NCAA Tournament. Kaprielian has an impressive 3-pitch mix, consisting of a low-90s fastball, solid curveball and above-average changeup. Kaprielian may not have the greatest ceiling, but in a draft filled with High-Risk/High-Reward type prospects, his floor is one of the highest in this class. He figures to develop into a quality #4 starter in the major leagues.

Mike Matuella RHP Duke University

Perhaps the most controversial player in this draft, Matuella at this time last year was considered one of the favorites to be selected 1st overall, as his upper-90s velocity, 4-quality pitches, and monster pitching frame makes him an ideal starting pitching prospect. However, Matuella was diagnosed with a chronic back condition last fall and underwent Tommy John surgery this spring, causing many teams to take him completely off their draft boards due to his medicals. Conversely, most pitchers eventually break and when Matuella is healthy, he has some of the best pure stuff for a draft prospect in recent memory. He should be selected on Day 1 of the draft, but he could be selected anywhere from #10 through #70, depending on a team’s appetite for risk and confidence in signing him.

Introducing THE Top 2015 MLB Draft Hitting Prospects

Mere days before the 2015 MLB Draft, this felt like an ideal time to look at several of the top bats expected to be taken next Monday evening. Scouts each year lament the lack of impact hitters in that year’s draft class, and this year is no different. However, these complaints ignored, there are several college hitters, especially middle infielders, expected to be chosen early and a few high school bats that could develop into middle-of-the-order hitters down the road. Here is an introduction to a few of the top hitting prospects available this year, each of whom is expected to be selected on Day 1 of the MLB Draft.

Dansby Swanson SS Vanderbilt

Entering this season Swanson projected as a mid-1st round pick, as questions existed if he could play shortstop professionally after playing the keystone as a sophomore. This season Swanson has answered the critics, showing soft hands, good feet and a quality, accurate throwing arm at shortstop and figures to be above-average defensively long-term. At the plate Swanson has quality bat speed, a relatively compact right-handed swing and some pull side power. Now scouts profile him as a potential above-average to plus offensive and defensive shortstop. This, in addition to his recent offensive explosion in the SEC Tournament and the NCAAs, makes Swanson a near-lock to be drafted in the top-3 picks in the draft.

Alex Bregman SS/2B LSU

Naturally comparisons have been made between Swanson and Alex Bregman, as both are outstanding SEC shortstops projected to be top selections in the June draft with questions about their ability to stay at shortstop. And while Swanson has silenced the critics, Bregman still has his detractors who expect him to shift to second base professionally, due to his lack of elite athleticism and arm strength.

Conversely, most scouts are convinced Bregman is the best, most polished college hitter in this class, as his excellent bat speed, hand-eye coordination and track record of success at the highest levels gives him a strong chance of hitting as a professional. Questions about his eventual defensive position will have him chosen after Swanson, but Bregman should not escape the top-8 selections himself.

Daz Cameron OF Eagle’s Landing Christian Academy, Georgia

Son of long-time major league centerfielder Mike Cameron, Daz has long been on scouts’ radar due to his family lineage and his appearance as a sophomore in the Under Armour All-American Game two years ago. Cameron has solid, but not elite, speed and athleticism but his feel for the game and instincts allow him to profile as a strong defender in center field, similar to his father.

Questions exist about his skills at the plate, as scouts are mixed on how his power and contact ability will translate against better quality pitching. That said it feels like Cameron is suffering from a bit of prospect fatigue amongst the scouting community, and would be a tremendous value outside of the top-6 picks in June.
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Brendan Rodgers SS Lake Mary HS, Florida

Coming off a monster summer on the showcase circuit, Rodgers was considered the consensus top prospect in this draft class and entered this calendar year as the favorite to be selected 1st overall. Simply put, Rodgers has impact potential at the big league level, as he has the skills to be a 20+ home run hitter along with playing above-average defense at shortstop.

He does not have the speed one might ideally desire from a shortstop and already has a large frame, giving his critics thought he may not stay at shortstop for many years. Even so, if he outgrows shortstop and moves to the hot corner, Rodgers could be a plus defender there with 20+ home run power, a role “6” or fringe all-star caliber player. Rodgers two-way talent and all-star potential should have him selected in the top-5 picks, with a chance he goes 1-1.

Andrew Benintendi CF University of Arkansas

Only a draft-eligible sophomore, Benintendi has exploded this season, ranking in the top-10 in the NCAA in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, while competing in the SEC conference. Benintendi plays a quality center field and projects to remain there professionally due to his solid arm and excellent speed. Offensively he shows excellent bat-to-ball skills, an ability to barrel the baseball and has home run power, especially to the pull side. He is not very tall or physically large, and lacks a long track record of success as he has played two years in college and skipped summer baseball last year. Those knocks aside, Benintendi has a chance to be an above-average 2-way centerfielder and should not escape the top-12 picks.

Kevin Newman SS University of Arizona

Newman is not an elite athlete or particularly fast, but he has solid actions at shortstop with an average to above-average throwing arm. Offensively Newman does not flash much power currently, but he controls the strike zone well, has a mature approach and excellent barrel skills. A two-time Cape Cod League batting champion, Newman has proven his swing will translate with a wood bat. Newman will not play it flashy, but he should remain at shortstop as a professional and has a chance to contribute offensively.

Richie Martin SS University of Florida

Martin is an obvious, tremendous athlete with good speed and excellent lateral agility. Blessed with soft hands, good feet and a strong arm, there is little question Martin will stay at shortstop as a professional. Offensively Martin showed skills last summer in the Cape League, handling himself well with a wood bat, although there are questions about the impact he will have offensively. Nonetheless, Martin projects as an above-average to plus defensive shortstop with a chance to hit in the #2 spot in the lineup down the road.

THE NatsGM Mock Draft Version 1

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The best day of the year is only one week away – No, not the last day of school, the 2015 MLB Draft commences next Monday night. With this in mind, I figured it was the appropriate time to do my 1st Mock Draft of 2015, projecting the entire 1st round plus Baltimore and Washington’s selections on Day 1.

While I have talked with many baseball people in recent days about the draft, this list should be viewed as whom I believe the individual team would select if the picks fell this way next week, not filled with any “insider” knowledge. That said here is THE NatsGM 2015 Mock Draft, Version 1.0.

Arizona Diamondbacks Pick #1 Dansby Swanson SS Vanderbilt

I was tempted to put Rodgers here as I have an odd feeling Arizona likes him and is downplaying their enthusiasm. However after the recent hot streak of Swanson in the SEC Tournament and the NCAAs, I think he is eventually the #1 overall pick.

Houston Astros Pick #2 Brendan Rodgers SS Lake Mary HS

The Astros love Swanson and would run to the podium to select him if Arizona passes on him. I could see Bregman here but believe Houston eventually gambles on Rodgers’ immense upside.

Colorado Rockies Pick #3 Tyler Jay LHP University of Illinois

If either Swanson or Rodgers slips to #3, I think they are the pick. Otherwise, I think Colorado takes the top pitcher available (in their minds) – Tate is tempting but I believe Jay’s repertoire fits better in Coors Field, making him the selection.

Texas Rangers Pick #4 Dillon Tate RHP UC Santa Barbara

Tate has struggled a bit in recent weeks, but his performance the other night in the NCAA Regionals, which had him sitting 94-98mph, should have him seen as the best college righty on the board. Texas has plenty of hitting but could use a front-line pitcher to bolster their farm system.

Houston Astros Pick #5 Alex Bregman SS LSU

Daz Cameron could be tempting here, but I expect the Astros to take a safer player, both track record and bonus demand wise, here at #5 and select Bregman. Bregman would pair extremely nicely in a prospect infield with Carlos Correa and Brendan Rodgers potentially as the future in Houston.

Minnesota Twins Pick #6 Daz Cameron OF Eagle’s Landing Christian Academy HS

I do not have a great feel for this pick, so I would expect Minnesota to lean toward the best player available, which likely could be Mike Cameron’s son, Daz.

Boston Red Sox Pick #7 Ian Happ OF University of Cincinnati

I know everyone discusses Boston’s depth with hitting prospects, but I can see Happ serving as a possible heir apparent to Dustin Pedroia at second base, with left field or third base being a solid backup plan.

Chicago White Sox Pick #8 Jon Harris RHP Missouri State

Carson Fulmer is interesting, but I think the White Sox choose Harris here at pick #8, preferring the certainty of Harris staying as a starter long-term.

Chicago Cubs Pick #9 Tyler Stephenson Catcher

The Cubs are certainly choosing best player available, though they would like to see a college pitcher all things equal. If Harris is on the board, I believe he’s the pick, but if not, I think Stephenson is the selection, as a backup plan in case Kyle Schwarber is traded or not a long-term catcher.

Philadelphia Phillies Pick #10 Kyle Tucker OF Plant HS

Once again, Philadelphia would like to see Harris available and they could select the Vanderbilt RHPs Walker Buehler or Carson Fulmer. However, foreshadowing a major mid-season trade of Cole Hamels (and others), I expect the Phillies to take the most talented player available, Kyle Tucker.

Cincinnati Reds Pick #11 Andrew Benintendi OF University of Arkansas

A Cincinnati native who has blossomed as a draft-eligible sophomore, dominating the competition in the SEC, Benintendi would be difficult for the Reds to pass on if available.

Miami Marlins Pick #12 Carson Fulmer RHP Vanderbilt

Fulmer’s slide stops here, as the Marlins could look for a quick return on investment with this pick and select Fulmer. Scouts question if he is a long-term starter or reliever, but few question a long career in the majors barring injury. He fits well here at pick #12.

Tampa Bay Rays Pick #13 Walker Buehler RHP Vanderbilt

Although Tampa leans toward high school players often in the draft, the Rays’ have missed on numerous picks in recent drafts and could look to bolster their system with a college player, specifically proven SEC starter Walker Buehler. As a college pitcher with projection remaining, Buehler could benefit greatly from Tampa’s noted scouting and development people.

Atlanta Braves Pick #14 Cornelius Randolph SS Griffin HS

Giving the Braves the best available high school player in Georgia is almost too easy, so Randolph goes to Atlanta here at #14.

Milwaukee Brewers Pick #15 Chris Betts Catcher Wilson HS

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New York Yankees Pick #16 Garrett Whitley OF Niskayuna HS

Many have speculated a college pitcher for the Yankees, but the value here in the middle of the 1st round is with high school outfielders, as Whitley and Trenton Clark are still available. A New York native with excellent potential at the plate, Whitley feels like a perfect pick for the Yankees.

Cleveland Indians Pick #17 Trenton Clark OF Richland HS

I do not have much of a feel for this pick, but Texas high school outfielder Trenton Clark is a tremendous value past the top-15 and slots well to an organization that values outfielders highly.

San Francisco Giants Pick #18 James Kaprielian RHP UCLA

Kaprielian is one of the safest players in this draft and UCLA’s Friday starter will likely be off the board before the Giants pick. However, somehow he is still available the way this draft has fallen, making Kaprielian a solid pick for San Francisco and fits with organizational need as well.

Pittsburgh Pirates Pick #19 Mike Nikorak RHP Stroudsburg HS

A talented high school righty from a local high school, Mike Nikorak could be selected much higher next week, but is a slam dunk pick for the Pirates if he lasts to #19.

Oakland Athletics Pick #20 Cody Ponce RHP Cal Poly Pomona

A local product from nearby division 2 Cal Poly Pomona, Cody Ponce has skyrocketed up draft boards this spring and would be a perfect pick for Oakland.

Kansas City Royals Pick #21 Phil Bickford RHP JC of Southern Nevada

Kansas City liked Bickford a bunch a few years ago and it would be surprising to see them pass on him if he is still available when they are on the clock.

Detroit Tigers Pick #22 Ashe Russell RHP Cathedral Catholic HS

Detroit tends to favor hard-throwing pitchers and/or prospects seeming to slip in the draft with their top pick and Ashe Russell certainly fits that description. A power righty from Indianapolis, Russell would be an excellent pick for Detroit to enhance their floundering farm system.

St. Louis Cardinals Pick #23 Kolby Allard LHP San Clemente HS

The Cardinals tend to prefer college players in the 1st round, but the opportunity to add perhaps the best high school left-handed pitcher in this year’s draft would be too tempting for the Cardinals.

Los Angeles Dodgers Pick #24 Brady Aiken LHP IMG Academy

The Dodgers have been heavily rumored to Aiken, especially since they acquired the #74 pick from Baltimore in the Ryan Webb trade earlier this spring. Aiken was the top pick in a perceived stronger draft class last summer before negotiations collapsed with the Houston Astros last summer. Then he enrolled in junior college, pitched a few innings and then underwent Tommy John surgery this spring. All that said Aiken has a tremendous amount of potential and would be an magnificent risk/reward selection late in Round 1.

Baltimore Orioles Pick #25 Kevin Newman SS University of Arizona

The Orioles farm system is rather thin currently, so I would expect Baltimore to lean toward collegiate players in hopes of a quick return. Kyle Funkhouser and Nathan Kirby will be tempting, but I expect them to favor Arizona shortstop Kevin Newman as their top pick.

Los Angeles Angels Pick #26 Blake Trahan SS Louisiana-Lafayette

Similarly to Baltimore, I expect the Angels to lean toward college players in Round 1, preferring to choose a more “polished” and closer-to-the-majors prospect. Trahan is not quite as well-known as others but he is an exciting college hitter capable of staying in the middle infield, making him a nice choice to end Round 1.

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Baltimore Orioles Pick #36 Kyle Funkhouser RHP University of Louisville

Six weeks ago it would have been laughable that Funkhouser would be available outside of the top-15 picks, but recent struggles and a rumored velocity loss could allow him to slide into the compensation round. Although the Orioles have been burned by top pitching prospects and velocity loss, I think Funkhouser’s ceiling would be too great for Baltimore to pass on with their 2nd pick.

Washington Nationals Pick #58 Mike Matuella RHP Duke University

While it is difficult to believe Matuella will still be available here at #58, the rumors are many teams have taken him completely off their draft boards due to his medical concerns. The Nationals tend to overlook medicals, especially with pitchers, more than most teams and could be the team that takes the risk selecting Matuella. If he reaches #58, I believe Matuella will be the pick for Washington.

Baltimore Orioles Pick #68 Alex Robinson LHP University of Maryland

After taking two talented prospects thought to be selected higher than they were, I project Baltimore to attempt to save a few dollars with an “under-slot” player in local prospect University of Maryland left-handed pitcher Alex Robinson. Baltimore scouts have packed Maryland home games this spring, and the opportunity to add the upper-90s arm in Robinson, plus save a few dollars, would make this a strong pick at #68.

Washington Nationals Pick #69 Brett Lilek LHP Arizona State

After taking high-risk/high-reward Matuella, I think Washington would lean toward a safer prospect, perhaps with “under-slot” bonus demands, with their 2nd pick on Day 1. Lilek has struggled with some “draftitis” this spring after a strong sophomore season with Arizona State, but his solid command of a 3-pitch mix and recent better performance could make him a Rizzo-type choice late in Round 2.

The May 2015 Edition of THE NatsGM Mailbag – Part 2

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Yesterday for the first time since Paula Dean was still considered a lovable celebrity chef, I published a NatsGM Mailbag filled with excellent questions from you, the readers. I have received so many quality queries from you this week that today I return for Round 2 of THE NatsGM Mailbag.

@GRTrouble via Twitter -> “Best prospect in the Nats system no one (besides a scout) has heard of yet?”

Tough question, as the Nationals’ fan base is pretty savvy in their knowledge of the minor leagues and especially those reading this site. Without discussing players in the Dominican, three names that do not get enough attention in Washington’s system are Spencer Kieboom, Dale Carey, and Osvaldo Abreu.

Many may recognize Kieboom primarily for his “80” last name, but he is a tremendous defensive catcher with a little bit of pop in his right-handed swing. I am not the biggest fan of his contact ability or overall skills offensively, but he is a plus defensive catcher who can knock a mistake over the fence. That sounds like a number of current backup catchers throughout baseball, including Washington’s Jose Lobaton.

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Dale Carey

Carey was Washington’s 7th round pick last summer as a senior sign from the University of Miami and was selected with the reputation as a quality athlete who had underachieved in his time as a Hurricane. Carey has above-average to plus speed and a good arm, allowing him to profile well at all three outfield positions. At the plate Carey struggles with strikeouts, which limits his ability to use his speed to get on-base and steal bases. However, he does have some pop, more than enough to keep pitchers’ honest and can plug the gaps with doubles when he makes contact. He does not have a large ceiling due to the whiffs, but I expect his defensive skills, speed, and power to allow him to reach the majors in a backup capacity. This was a tremendous below-slot second day selection for the Nationals last summer.

Another in the next wave of signees from the Dominican Republic, Abreu is often overlooked in the Nationals’ system due to his lack of a plus tool. However, the more you watch Abreu the more you appreciate his solid glove work at shortstop and flashes of above-average bat speed and occasional power. He does not have the speed one expects from a major league shortstop or an impact bat, but the 20-year-old Abreu could eventually reach the majors in a backup capacity with more experience and refinement offensively.

@2Zuethes via Twitter -> “ Is Jomar Reyes too big to be a 3B? He’s a big fella, and only 18. Wonder if a move to 1B is in future.”

Jomar Reyes

Before diving in, CJ Wittmann and I discussed Reyes at length in a recent THE NatsGM Show Podcast, link here -> http://natsgm.com/2015/05/19/the-natsgm-show-episode-37-guest-cj-wittmann-jr/
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No question, Jomar Reyes is already a physically imposing man, looking significantly larger than his listen 6-3 220lbs. In fact I would guess he is closer to 6-6 250lbs and I often compare him physically to a young J.J. Watt. Reyes is already a slow runner and should only grow larger as he matures, so while he has reasonable agility, soft hands and a good arm, it is nearly impossible to believe he stays at third base in the future. While he plays the position reasonably well today, he profiles as a first baseman long-term.

However, regardless of his eventual defensive positon, Reyes is a legitimate hitter and his bat will carry him to the major leagues. Reyes shows above-average bat speed, good mechanics and balance throughout his simple right-handed swing. He generates loft and backspin off the bat, and the ball sounds different off the bat, like a gunshot. Like most young power hitters, his swing can get a touch long and he will need to shorten it as he moves through the minors, but he has quick wrists and the raw bat speed to hit professional velocity.

The most impressive thing to me about Reyes is what type of hitter he will develop into as he matures – most hitters are easy to project to a degree, as their strengths and weaknesses are easy to see (i.e. he has power but cannot hit, he has no power, etc.). Reyes is a unique exception, because I could see him develop 25-30 home run power while sacrificing batting average. In contrast, Reyes could focus on making contact and using the entire field, likely to the detriment of his home run totals. Or could Reyes be one of the rare hitters who hits for average and power, as the skills are there for him to potentially do both. Frankly, I am not ready to make that judgement, but Reyes has special potential as a hitter and is easily a top-3 prospect in Baltimore’s system.

Lamar via Email –> “Who are some of your favorite sleepers in this year’s draft?”

Brandon Lowe

Brandon Lowe

If anyone ever asks a draft question, near 100% chance it will be answered. I have written up Maryland infielders Brandon Lowe and Jose Cuas individually this spring and believe they both have a chance to reach the major leagues. Neither will be selected on Day 1 of the draft, but both will be excellent value picks on Day 2. In addition, if Maryland catcher Kevin Martir and outfielder LaMonte Wade are signable, I think they could be interesting picks as well.

Another Day 2 pick that deserves more attention is Division 2 slugger, Nova Southeastern University 1B Justin Garcia. Garcia has played some outfield in college, but his 6-3 235lbs frame probably profiles best at first base. Nevertheless, Garcia has legitimate power in his left-handed swing, clubbing 26 home runs and 44 extra base hits in 52 games played this season. In a draft devoid of hitters, especially ones with power, expect to hear Garcia’s name early to a team that priorities power and production.

Two more names I believe need more draft attention are North Carolina State senior hitters, outfielder Jake Fincher and infielder Logan Ratledge. Fincher caught my attention last season when I watched the Wolfpack visit Maryland, as he showed decent speed, a grinder mentality and some decent bat speed. He does not have a huge ceiling, but as a senior capable of playing all three outfield spots, Fincher could be a nice pick on Day 2.

In addition, Ratledge has taken advantage of teammate Trea Turner’s departure to show the ability to play a passable shortstop, in addition to his skills at the plate. Ratledge has some power, speed, position flexibility, and a lack of negotiating leverage, which could make him an interesting selection in the 3rd to 5th round next month.

* Thanks for the many excellent questions and I am sorry I could not answer every single one.  I plan to do another Mailbag this summer, so keep the questions coming.  *