The May 2015 Edition of THE NatsGM Mailbag – Part 2

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Yesterday for the first time since Paula Dean was still considered a lovable celebrity chef, I published a NatsGM Mailbag filled with excellent questions from you, the readers. I have received so many quality queries from you this week that today I return for Round 2 of THE NatsGM Mailbag.

@GRTrouble via Twitter -> “Best prospect in the Nats system no one (besides a scout) has heard of yet?”

Tough question, as the Nationals’ fan base is pretty savvy in their knowledge of the minor leagues and especially those reading this site. Without discussing players in the Dominican, three names that do not get enough attention in Washington’s system are Spencer Kieboom, Dale Carey, and Osvaldo Abreu.

Many may recognize Kieboom primarily for his “80” last name, but he is a tremendous defensive catcher with a little bit of pop in his right-handed swing. I am not the biggest fan of his contact ability or overall skills offensively, but he is a plus defensive catcher who can knock a mistake over the fence. That sounds like a number of current backup catchers throughout baseball, including Washington’s Jose Lobaton.

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Dale Carey

Carey was Washington’s 7th round pick last summer as a senior sign from the University of Miami and was selected with the reputation as a quality athlete who had underachieved in his time as a Hurricane. Carey has above-average to plus speed and a good arm, allowing him to profile well at all three outfield positions. At the plate Carey struggles with strikeouts, which limits his ability to use his speed to get on-base and steal bases. However, he does have some pop, more than enough to keep pitchers’ honest and can plug the gaps with doubles when he makes contact. He does not have a large ceiling due to the whiffs, but I expect his defensive skills, speed, and power to allow him to reach the majors in a backup capacity. This was a tremendous below-slot second day selection for the Nationals last summer.

Another in the next wave of signees from the Dominican Republic, Abreu is often overlooked in the Nationals’ system due to his lack of a plus tool. However, the more you watch Abreu the more you appreciate his solid glove work at shortstop and flashes of above-average bat speed and occasional power. He does not have the speed one expects from a major league shortstop or an impact bat, but the 20-year-old Abreu could eventually reach the majors in a backup capacity with more experience and refinement offensively.

@2Zuethes via Twitter -> “ Is Jomar Reyes too big to be a 3B? He’s a big fella, and only 18. Wonder if a move to 1B is in future.”

Jomar Reyes

Before diving in, CJ Wittmann and I discussed Reyes at length in a recent THE NatsGM Show Podcast, link here -> http://natsgm.com/2015/05/19/the-natsgm-show-episode-37-guest-cj-wittmann-jr/
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No question, Jomar Reyes is already a physically imposing man, looking significantly larger than his listen 6-3 220lbs. In fact I would guess he is closer to 6-6 250lbs and I often compare him physically to a young J.J. Watt. Reyes is already a slow runner and should only grow larger as he matures, so while he has reasonable agility, soft hands and a good arm, it is nearly impossible to believe he stays at third base in the future. While he plays the position reasonably well today, he profiles as a first baseman long-term.

However, regardless of his eventual defensive positon, Reyes is a legitimate hitter and his bat will carry him to the major leagues. Reyes shows above-average bat speed, good mechanics and balance throughout his simple right-handed swing. He generates loft and backspin off the bat, and the ball sounds different off the bat, like a gunshot. Like most young power hitters, his swing can get a touch long and he will need to shorten it as he moves through the minors, but he has quick wrists and the raw bat speed to hit professional velocity.

The most impressive thing to me about Reyes is what type of hitter he will develop into as he matures – most hitters are easy to project to a degree, as their strengths and weaknesses are easy to see (i.e. he has power but cannot hit, he has no power, etc.). Reyes is a unique exception, because I could see him develop 25-30 home run power while sacrificing batting average. In contrast, Reyes could focus on making contact and using the entire field, likely to the detriment of his home run totals. Or could Reyes be one of the rare hitters who hits for average and power, as the skills are there for him to potentially do both. Frankly, I am not ready to make that judgement, but Reyes has special potential as a hitter and is easily a top-3 prospect in Baltimore’s system.

Lamar via Email –> “Who are some of your favorite sleepers in this year’s draft?”

Brandon Lowe

Brandon Lowe

If anyone ever asks a draft question, near 100% chance it will be answered. I have written up Maryland infielders Brandon Lowe and Jose Cuas individually this spring and believe they both have a chance to reach the major leagues. Neither will be selected on Day 1 of the draft, but both will be excellent value picks on Day 2. In addition, if Maryland catcher Kevin Martir and outfielder LaMonte Wade are signable, I think they could be interesting picks as well.

Another Day 2 pick that deserves more attention is Division 2 slugger, Nova Southeastern University 1B Justin Garcia. Garcia has played some outfield in college, but his 6-3 235lbs frame probably profiles best at first base. Nevertheless, Garcia has legitimate power in his left-handed swing, clubbing 26 home runs and 44 extra base hits in 52 games played this season. In a draft devoid of hitters, especially ones with power, expect to hear Garcia’s name early to a team that priorities power and production.

Two more names I believe need more draft attention are North Carolina State senior hitters, outfielder Jake Fincher and infielder Logan Ratledge. Fincher caught my attention last season when I watched the Wolfpack visit Maryland, as he showed decent speed, a grinder mentality and some decent bat speed. He does not have a huge ceiling, but as a senior capable of playing all three outfield spots, Fincher could be a nice pick on Day 2.

In addition, Ratledge has taken advantage of teammate Trea Turner’s departure to show the ability to play a passable shortstop, in addition to his skills at the plate. Ratledge has some power, speed, position flexibility, and a lack of negotiating leverage, which could make him an interesting selection in the 3rd to 5th round next month.

* Thanks for the many excellent questions and I am sorry I could not answer every single one.  I plan to do another Mailbag this summer, so keep the questions coming.  *