February 21, 2011 

What do you expect from Danny Espinosa, both in 2011 and longer-term? Jenny B. New York, NY

Danny Espinosa enters 2011 as the starting second baseman after a solid debut last September. Espinosa, a 3^rd round pick of the Washington Nationals in 2008, spent the majority of last season in AA Harrisburg, boasting an impressive .262/.334/.464 stat line in 386 at-bats. The Nationals then sent him to AAA Syracuse and in his brief time he impressed with a .295/.349/.463 in 95 at-bats. Because the minor league season ends around Labor Day, the Nationals decided to challenge Danny and brought him to the big leagues in September and handed him the second base job: he impressed with both his glove and athleticism more so than his bat, flashing a .214/.277/.477 in 103 at-bats. GM Mike Rizzo, manager Jim Riggleman, and the rest of the organization gave him a ringing endorsement this off-season, resisting the temptation to sign a bigger name free agent to fill the position and thus give Espinosa more seasoning in the minors, instead opting to sign Jerry Hairston as insurance at second base and making Danny the starter at second base.

I have been a big believer in Danny Espinosa ever since I saw him play in college at Long Beach State. Because he played the same position at the same school as Troy Tulowitzki and Evan Longoria, the comparisons were far too easy to make for scouts and were not always favorable for Espinosa, as the other two went in the top 7 picks in their respective draft classes. In a rather uncommon fashion, the attention he received, and thus the criticisms lobbed against him compared to Tulowitzki and Longoria made him somewhat underrated going into the draft. When I saw him in college, I was convinced I was looking at a major league utility player as his floor, and a league average shortstop as his ceiling. In my notes I compared him with long time Oriole shortstop Mike Bordick, as I thought Espinosa projected as a similar player (above average glove, decent to solid bat, scrappy and a winner). Since he was drafted in 2008, he has developed more power and base stealing ability and has become a more solid prospect. The Nationals decided to move him to second base in favor of Ian Desmond, an opinion that I do not share. I will continue to believe that the Nationals would be better off long-term with Espinosa at shortstop, Ian Desmond in center field, and filling second base in some other manner. In general, Espinosa is steadier at shortstop with a stronger throwing arm, whereas Desmond has more range but is also more prone to errors.

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I encourage each of you to email me your questions or any general feedback at nationalsgm@gmail.com and to follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom

February 15^th, 2011 

In the past few days I have had two readers email me with similar questions, so I decided to combine them into one. So as a tip of the fedora to Alex S. from Delaware and Mr. Anonymous… “While reading your site, I never saw your opinion of the Jayson Werth signing or the Josh Willingham trade. What did you think?” 

While I acknowledge that these were two of the biggest moves of the off-season, both happened so long before I started this site that I concluded that the topic had been discussed ad nauseum. But since two people took the time to ask, I am happy to comment on both transactions. 

Washington Nationals Sign OF Jayson Werth to a 7-Year $126 million Contract 

Sound the alarms, the Washington Nationals finally stepped into the big leagues. After a long history of being Katherine Heigl in 27 Dresses, the Nationals came out of nowhere and signed RF Jayson Werth to the biggest contract in team history and one of the biggest in the history of baseball. I must say as well, this was one of the biggest surprises I can remember in my 30+ years as a Washington sports fan. I was completely blindsided, both by the magnitude of the contract and the lunacy of it. 

Werth, 32 in May, posted a tremendous .296/.388/.532 with 27 home runs in 554 at-bats in 2010 and is currently a top 3 right fielder in the major leagues. I believe he has been underrated these past few seasons being surrounded with the other big name great players in Philadelphia.  Werth will play right field for the Nationals the next few seasons and will likely shift to left field for the second half of this contract. He should have one to two more peak seasons and then begin his career decline about the time the Nationals anticipate competing for championships. 

While I firmly believe the Nationals needed to make a big splash this off-season in an attempt to create some interest for this season and the team in general, this decision reeks of the desperation and pressure the organization must have felt to produce results. Jayson Werth makes the Nationals a better team in 2011, but to give a 7-year contract to a 32 year old player with injury history and better career statistics in Citizens Bank Park than on the road leads me to believe there is little to no chance that the organization does not regret this deal in the future.  I expected Werth to get overpaid this off-season with a 5-year contract for about $80-85 million; therefore, using “NatsGM math” (trademark pending) Werth was overpaid by two years and $41-$46 million dollars. In light of the potential for this contract to stiffle the organization in years 2015, 2016, and 2017, I cannot support this organizational decision. 

Overall Grade…. D to D- 

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After signing RF Jayson Werth a few weeks earlier, the Nationals felt that they had a surplus in the outfield and decided to let CF Nyjer Morgan and LF Roger Bernadina either play their way into or out of the Nationals plans in 2012 and beyond. Thus Josh Willingham, a solid corner outfielder and good clubhouse influence whom has struggled with injuries throughout his career, was deemed expendable and traded to the Oakland Athletics for RHP Henry Rodriguez and OF Corey Brown. At 32 years old with one year left on his contract, the Nationals made the proper decision to trade Willingham for pieces more likely to contribute in the future. Therefore, the better question may be…. Was this the right deal to make? 

RHP Henry Rodriguez has an impressive arm that reportedly hits 98-100mph with a decent breaking pitch and reportedly has made strides to improve his below average control. In general, I do not think it is good decision to trade for relievers, as their value fluctuates too much from season to season and the taxing nature of their workloads makes the injury risk too great. That said, his potential as a closer or strong set-up man makes him intriguing. 

OF Corey Brown, drafted 59^th overall by the A’s in 2007, was very impressive in AA in 2010, posting a .320/.415/.502 in 386 plate appearances after bombing in his first attempt in AAA. Brown has great speed and quality defensive skills, but has struggled with strikeouts in his minor league career and at 25 years old is getting old for a prospect. Brown profiles as a solid 4^th outfielder on a playoff team, and should carve out a solid career in the majors while having the potential to be a quality starter if he cuts down on his strikeouts. 

Overall, I was hoping the Nationals would receive two prospects in return for Willingham with fewer question marks, but both have the potential to be strong assets for the Nationals when they expect to contend. If Rodriguez is not able to harness his control and if Brown cannot cut down on the strikeouts, then Billy Beane and the Oakland A’s win this trade hands down. However, if either or both happen, this trade becomes a big win for the Nationals and that leads me to give this deal a solid thumbs up. 

Overall Grade: B or B- … closer to the B 

I encourage you to email me with questions at nationalsgm@gmail.com and follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom 

February 8, 2011

What a great way to begin the day: I opened my calendar and realized that we are only seven days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Viera for spring training. Before we know it, Opening Day will arrive and we will be watching baseball again. Thank goodness!

The other night while catching up with friends at a Super Bowl party, I had various people in different ways ask me the same basic question: “How good will the Nationals be this season?”

After finishing 2010 with a record of 69-93, an improvement of ten wins from 2009 when the club finished 59-103, the Washington Nationals enter this year with a sense of optimism that better days are ahead… just not likely in 2011. The Nationals seem to be pointing toward 2012 and beyond as the time when the club will be mature and ready for success. While the Lerners and GM Mike Rizzo spent money this off-season, it likely will not result in a drastic increase in wins, as this upcoming year will focus more on player and organizational development than a playoff run in September.

The batting lineup suffered two large losses this off-season with the free agent departure of Adam Dunn to the White Sox and the trade of Josh Willingham to Oakland. However, the middle of the order should remain a team strength with all-star 3B Ryan Zimmerman batting 3rd, major free agent signing RF Jayson Werth batting cleanup and new 1B Adam LaRoche holding down the fifth spot. The Nationals will be counting on improvement both offensively and defensively from young players SS Ian Desmond, 2B Danny Espinosa and LF Roger Bernadina. Finally, holdover CF Nyjer Morgan will look to bounce back from just an awful season in 2010 while Ivan Rodriguez will serve as the starting catcher and mentor as Wilson Ramos and Jesus Flores battle for the backup catching position.

The starting rotation should improve with RHP Livan Hernandez and LHP John Lannan at the top, and the return from injuries of veteran RHP Jason Marquis and promising RHP Jordan Zimmermann. The fifth spot in the rotation will likely be recent trade acquisition LHP Tom Gorzelanny, but expect youngsters LHP Ross Detwiler or RHP Yunesky Maya to push him this year. The bullpen, a major strength in 2010, should remain solid with the return of core members RHP Tyler Clippard, RHP Drew Storen, LHP Sean Burnett, and LHP Doug Slaten in addition to newcomers RHP Henry Rodriguez and RHP Todd Coffey.

The 2011 version of the Washington Nationals should be significantly more athletic, better defensively, and more consistent with their starting pitching while likely seeing declines in home runs, on-base percentage and some natural regression from the bullpen. I expect the Nationals will be more competitive this season and I believe the impressive collection of young talent will step forward and begin to make a name for themselves. This team enters this season as a stronger and more balanced club top-to-bottom than in 2010, but the improvement of the NL East overall this off-season and the injury to Stephen Strasburg likely restricts the improvement the team can expect this season.
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My 2011 Prediction….. 75 Wins – 87 Losses

What do you think? Leave a comment and let me know. I also want to encourage everyone to follow me on twitter @NatsGMdotcom and to email me at nationalsgm@gmail.com.

February 6, 2011 

Nationals Sign Matt Chico, JD Martin, Cla Meredith, Alex Cora, Laynce Nix ,Carlos Maldonado, and Kevin Barker, Option Shairon Martis to Triple-A 

This past week the Washington Nationals signed LHP Matt Chico, RHP JD Martin, RHP Cla Meredith, IF Alex Cora, OF Laynce Nix, C Carlos Maldonado, and 1B Kevin Barker to minor league contracts and invited each to spring training. Chico and Martin have spent time over the past few seasons with the Nationals and I am glad that each has returned to the organization, while not occupying a 40-man roster spot. I have long thought that Chico could do well as a LOOGY (left-handed one out guy) out of the bullpen as his motion and stuff might play up a bit better out of the bullpen. To the same end, I have long thought that the Nationals, or some big league team, should try JD Martin out of the bullpen. While his fastball is below average, he does not walk many hitters and induces a fair amount of ground ball outs, perfect for a reliever. Perhaps a shift to the bullpen might allow his fastball to play up as he could cut loose a bit more. The other names should see most of their action this season in Triple-A Syracuse while serving as organizational depth in case of injury at the big league level. 

Also, the Nationals announced this week that RHP Shairon Martis, whom was designated for assignment about two weeks ago, has cleared waivers and has been sent outright to Triple-A Syracuse, thus staying with the organization. Martis had a nice run of production in early 2009 with the Nationals but has spent the past season and a half in Triple-A with reasonable success (4.09 ERA in 27 starts in 2010). Martis does not have great stuff so he is unlikely to have sustained success in the big leagues, but he is only 23 years old and I think it is only a positive to keep young arms in the organization. While these are all minor moves, I think GM Mike Rizzo did good work bringing some quality depth into the fold. 

Vladimir Guerrero Signs a 1-year $8 million dollar contract with the Baltimore Orioles

The big baseball news of the past few days was that Vladimir Guerrero agreed to a 1-year contract with the Baltimore Orioles for $8 million, some of which is deferred. Here is my guess for the Orioles opening day lineup. 

2011 Lineup 

1- Brian Roberts 2B 

2- Nick Markakis RF 

3- Derrek Lee 1B 

4- Vladimir Guerrero DH 

5- Luke Scott LF 

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7- Adam Jones CF 

8- Matt Wieters C 

9- JJ Hardy SS 

That is quite a lineup GM Andy MacPhail has assembled this off-season in Baltimore. Besides Brian Roberts, each hitter has the potential to put up 20+ home runs, with some real breakout potential from the bottom of the lineup. After a relatively quiet start to the winter, the Orioles have done quite a job turning over their roster, adding a new 1B Derrek Lee, a new SS JJ Hardy, new 3B Mark Reynolds, new DH Guerrero, new starting pitcher Justin Duchscherer, and a new closer Kevin Gregg, amongst others. I commend GM Andy MacPhail for recognizing the large upgrade that Vladimir Guerrero would be to the club for a reasonable cost and a short term commitment. I find it interesting that the Orioles decided to increase their payroll so much this off-season (going from approximately $73 million in 2010 to approx. $93 million in 2011) as they still do not expect to compete with New York, Boston, or Tampa this season. 

But the Orioles will be a tough and pesky team all season with their improved lineup, a solid bullpen comprised of Kevin Gregg, Koji Uehara, and Mike Gonzalez, and a pitching staff that should take a step forward with Jeremy Guthrie anchoring the staff, Justin Duchscherer a solid starter when healthy, and the continued development of youngsters Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, and Brad Bergesen. While it does not look like 2011 will be the year the Orioles return to past glory, with GM MacPhail in charge, an increasing payroll and developing young talent, they should be much improved in 2011 and in the years upcoming. 

Prediction Time…

Penguins @ Capitals 12:30pm… I know the Penguins have the stronger record this season and should be inspired to play well with the loss of Evgeni Malkin to a terrible knee injury Friday evening, but I really liked the effort from the Caps Friday night against Tampa Bay and I think they might be beginning a hot streak… In a close game, I will go….. Capitals 4 Pittsburgh 3 , otherwise known as Good over Evil. 

Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers @ 6:30pm…. What a great match up! I have been trying all week to think of a Super Bowl that I have been anticipating like this one, and I certainly cannot come up with anything from the past decade. Sure we have had some great Super Bowl games recently, but none that have had two teams so well matched. I think the game will come down to two things: How well can the Steelers compensate for the injury to starting center Maurice Pouncey and thus keeping BJ Raji blocked and out of the backfield; and secondly, who wins the match up when Green Bay goes three and four wide receivers and Pittsburgh brings in their nickel and dime defenses. The Packers have shredded defenses all season because of their superior depth at wide receiver in comparison to other teams third and fourth cornerbacks. When the dust settles, I think the experience advantage that the Steelers have will allow them to make one more big play than Green Bay and send them to victory in Super Bowl . Pittsburgh 23 – Green Bay 20 

Also, I want to encourage everyone to email me at nationalsgm@gmail.com with questions, general feedback, or topics you might like me to cover. Also, please follow me on twitter @natsgmdotcom.