February 4, 2011

I realize this is a Nationals focused website, but there will be times occasionally that I write about other topics. Today is a perfect example as Andy Pettitte officially retired from baseball this afternoon…. Now I write this column still not completely convinced that he will not return to the Yankees at some point in 2011, perhaps very quickly after the Yankees realize how poor their other options are. That said, he stated point blank that he would not be returning in 2011, and he has the reputation as a man of his word.

Pettitte does not receive the recognition that Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera do, but Pettitte was the mainstay of the rotation during the dynasty the Yankees have had the past 15 years. Over his sixteen year career, Pettitte won five World Championships, all with the Yankees, and made three all-star appearances. He retires as the all-time winningest pitcher in postseason history with 19 career wins, also ranking first in postseason starts and innings pitched, second overall with 173 strikeouts and a 3.83 ERA. For his career, Pettitte finishes with 240 wins, a 3.88 ERA, and 2251 Strikeouts. Pettitte is just short of qualifying as a Hall of Famer looking at his regular season statistics, but has a strong case as the best postseason pitcher in baseball history. His admitted use of performance enhancing drugs, though the prototype for how to handle the situation with the media by simply ADMITTING IT, will likely keep him from enshrinement in Cooperstown. That said, he was the backbone of the Yankee rotation for many years and an underappreciated player by baseball fans in general.

* * *

I would like to digress a bit from here and ask the question: What will Brian Cashman do now that Andy Pettitte has retired?

The Yankees seem locked in at three places in the rotation:
#1 -> CC Sabathia… about as steady and rock solid as they come, excellent #1 starter
#2 -> Phil Hughes… showed great promise last season but struggled down the stretch
#3 -> AJ Burnett… struggled mightily in 2010 and was sent to the bullpen in the playoffs, but has 3 years and $50 plus million left on his contract

#4/5 -> A Combination of:
Sergio Mitre, Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Ivan Nova, and Manny Banuelos

It is relatively certain that the top three rotations spots are occupied by Sabathia, Hughes, and Burnett. Like I stated above, Sabathia is an ace and should anchor that staff well in 2011. Certainly Hughes and Burnett have great stuff and have shown the ability to pitch as #2 and #3 starters, but to say that both come into this season with questions marks, especially Burnett, would be an understatement. The Yankees should NOT have question marks as their #2 and #3 starters, simply unacceptable for a team with a $180-$200 million payroll. To that end, the #4 and $5 slots are up for grabs between a fringe major leaguer (Sergio Mitre), two pitchers past their primes and recovering from injury (Garcia and Colon), an unknown with limited upside( Nova) and Banuelos, an extremely promising youngster who needs some polish but should be up with the club after the All-Star break.

This rotation desperately needs an Andy Pettitte type in the #2 slot, someone the team can count on for 30 or more starts and close to 200 innings, as they only have one person currently that can be described as solid. By acquiring this pitcher, it would allow Hughes to slot more solidly as the #3 starter, slot Burnett #4, and allow the others to fight to be the 5th Starter. I think the combination of Mitre, Nova, Garcia, and Colon should be able to provide decent to solid results as the #5 starter until Manny Banuelos is ready later this season.

Unless you don’t know what you exactly viagra in canada find this now want, buying the one makes no sense. To know more in this regard, consult a qualified doctor. best tadalafil The tablet should only be taken during the find for info on line levitra sexual stimulation and are not able to achieve the erection during the sexual activities. At the time of monthly menstrual periods a woman’s sexual desire gets temporarily affected due to hormonal fluctuations and as soon as these periods end, things get back to normal. cialis 10mg canada
So what would I do? First I would increase my offer to Pettitte and see if he wants “to pull a Brett Favre”. Assuming that does not work, the best available free agent pitchers RHP Kevin Millwood and RHP Jeremy Bonderman do not provide the upgrade necessary, so I would turn to the trade market. The best available starter involved in trade rumors currently is Philadelphia’s RHP Joe Blanton, not quite the quality of player the Yankees should acquire. I have thought long and hard about the player I would target for the Yankees: Chicago Cubs RHP Carlos Zambrano.

Why for the Cubs: Pretty simple, salary relief. Zambrano is scheduled to make $17.875 million in 2011 and $18.0 million in 2012, with a very unlikely vesting option in 2013 of $19.250 million. Zambrano has suffered from some injuries the past two seasons, and had the infamous fight with Derrek Lee in the dugout last season. I do not expect the Cubs to compete this season, therefore they may want to take the opportunity to lighten their payroll and rid themselves of Carlos. The Cubs, even after trading Tom Gorzelanny to the Nationals last month, still have some pitching depth with Sean Marshall and Andrew Cashner around to fill the rotation slot left open by a Zambrano trade.

Why for the Yankees: Because Zambrano is a very good pitcher when healthy, motivated, and with his head on straight. His numbers are better than one might realize (2010: 129.2 IP, 3.33 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 4.8 BB/9), and because the Yankees could take on most, if not all of his contract, he likely would not require parting with much talent to acquire. The other names possibly available in trade, LHP Barry Zito, LHP Fausto Carmona, LHP Wandy Rodriguez and RHP Joe Blanton are not as good as Carlos Zambrano and likely would require more valuable prospects in return. I also would gamble that Zambrano returns to form with a change of scenery and the Yankees strong lineup providing him run support.

If the Yankees offered full salary relief ($35.875 million over two seasons) along with two blocked Yankee prospects RHP Hector Noesi ( BA # 7 Ranked Yankee Prospect) and 3B Brandon Laird (BA #10 Ranked Yankee Prospect)… the Cubs would have to listen and think real hard about moving Zambrano to the Bronx. I think this trade could work for both teams.

What do you think? Leave a comment……

Also, I want to encourage everyone to email me at nationalsgm@gmail.com with questions or general feedback and please follow me on twitter @natsgmdotcom.

February 2, 2011

After the recent signings of Jerry Hairston and Todd Coffey, the Nationals needed to clean up their 40 man roster, which forced the Nationals to designate OF Justin Maxwell for assignment last week. By doing this, the Nationals had 10 days to either release him, pass him through waivers and send him to the minors or work out a trade with another club. Today, the Nationals chose Option C, trading Maxwell to the New York Yankees for RHP Adam Olbrychowski.

Justin Maxwell, 27, never quite got his career on track with the Nationals, batting .201/.319/.379 in 219 at bats over the course of three seasons. The Olney, MD native, who played high school baseball at Sherwood HS and collegiately at the University of Maryland, was originally drafted by the Nationals in the 4th round of the 2005 draft. Maxwell possesses four average to above average tools (batting power, arm, defense, and speed) but unfortunately, the final tool, hitting, just has never been able to develop the consistency needed to succeed at the major league level. If Justin could somehow hit .250 or so, his other skills would make him a successful big-leaguer, though likely a reserve. Maxwell is coming off Tommy John surgery this off-season and was likely going to struggle to make the roster in 2011.

Besides impotency, young men are also suffering from adrenal weakness buy cialis without prescription or not. 2. Rhodiola Rosea and Panax GinsengRed or Panax Ginseng has been shown to greatly improve sexual performance for discount on cialis men. If the pelvic diaphragm is order cialis online weak which is so common in men of these days. Avoid excessive usage as it viagra samples for free top pharmacy can cause nerve damage, leading to severe complications. 3. Adam Olbrychowski, the player the Nationals acquired, is a 24-year old former starter that was converted to relief two seasons ago. Olbrychowski was the Yankees 5th round pick in 2007 out of Pepperdine and possesses a 4.17 ERA, 1.490 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 in 100 appearances and 35 starts over his four year career. A 6-foot-3 right handed reliever posted solid results last year with a 3-2 record with 3.90 ERA and 56 strikeouts in 67 innings mostly in high-A Tampa. He did not rank in the Yankees Top 30 prospects according to Baseball America but showed some improvement in 2010.

While I wish the club could have done more to keep him in the organization, I think they made the right decision to designate Maxwell for assignment last week and then to trade him today for a pitcher. I am not quite sure what GM Mike Rizzo and his staff sees in Olbrychowski, and have never seen him pitch myself, but I think they did well to bring another young pitcher into the organization to improve the pitching depth, especially after trading two pitchers recently for Tom Gorzelanny. I do worry that a change of scenery or the right hitting coach might bring out the untapped potential Maxwell has, but this was the right move for the organization going forward.

Overall Grade: Solid B

Before I begin today I want to give a very special “Thank You” to my webmaster and very good friend Tim. He has spent countless hours setting up this site with me and coaching me through my many questions. Your talents with this stuff always amazes me. So thank you!

January 27, 2011

It has been a relatively slow couple days with the Nationals and with baseball in general. However, I have been lucky enough to get a few questions from some of my readers, so I thought this snowy Thursday might be the perfect time to debut “Questions from the Readers”…. also known as Bill Simmons mailbag.

Matt M. Bethesda, MD -> What does your grading system represent?

Good question! Very straightforward:
An “A” -> a signing or trade that I fully endorse with no reservations… a GREAT move
A “B” -> a transaction I like but have some reservations about, I endorse the move but do not love it
A “C” -> a move that I am “50-50” on, I do not hate the move nor do I endorse it
A “D” -> a deal that I do not like for many reasons and would not have done myself
A “F” -> a terrible move…. That team just got stolen from

Since the formation of an erection depends on dilation, anything preventing it in younger men signals high order generic cialis risk the same problem will spread to other blood vessels can. Do raindogscine.com cialis 40 mg you want to ignite the missing fire in your love life. After side effects of viagra taking this medicine the effect starts in an hour with four business breaks. If a woman does not get aroused, something may not be right with her body or with her mind. raindogscine.com order viagra online Jim D. Boston, Mass -> What would the Nationals be giving up to acquire Fausto Carmona and/or Grady Sizemore?

As was first reported the other day by Phil Wood of MASN, the Nationals have apparently been talking to Cleveland about trading for either Carmona and/or Sizemore. As quickly as the reports surfaced, both teams seemed to spread the word that there was little to the rumors. It makes sense that the Nationals are talking about both players, as Carmona is a solid LH SP and would represent the front of the rotation arm that Mike Rizzo has wanted all off-season. To the same end, Sizemore, an elite player when healthy, would become the long-term center fielder the Nationals have been searching for since returning to Washington. Cleveland apparently wants to clear salary, as 2011 is a clear rebuilding year for them: Sizemore makes $7.5 million in 2011 with an $8.5 million option of 2012, with a 500k buyout. Carmona is scheduled to make $6.1 million this season and is under team control for a few years, meaning he would be quite expensive to acquire.

When the story first broke, it just did not seem to make sense for a few reasons: the first is that Mike Rizzo seems to make his moves covertly, so letting this get out just does not fit his modus operandi. But further, I am not sure a trade makes sense for either club right now. Why would Cleveland want to trade Sizemore right now after two down seasons and before returning to the field and proving his health? It would be the ultimate sell-low move. And with most teams having their starting rotations relatively squared away this late in January, why would Cleveland seemingly just be putting Carmona on the market? It would be far more logical for them to have shopped him hard during the winter meetings when the list of suitors would be significantly longer.

But to try to answer your question, it would cost far too much in terms of prospects at this point to acquire Carmona, and without seeing Sizemore on the field and healthy, the risk to acquire him would not make it worth the while of the Indians to move him. I hope to be proven wrong, as both players would represent huge upgrades at areas of need for the organization, but I would be surprised if anything further came from this report.

Anonymous, Florida -> What do you think about the Albert Pujols negotiations with St. Louis?

Well, the easy answer is like Derek Jeter’s negotiations this off-season with the Yankees, Pujols will simply end up resigning with the Cardinals next off-season. There are not many players that are simply identified with specific teams, and I believe Pujols has reached that elite status. It also seems as both the player and the team want to make it work. I also believe that the market for Albert would be fairly limited as well. Using this off-season as a template, certainly Pujols will receive a seven year contract if Jayson Werth can get a seven year deal from the Nationals, and Albert should obtain in excess of the annual salary Cliff Lee received from Philadelphia of $25 million dollars. So if the market begins at seven years and $175 million, perhaps only 7-10 teams in baseball could fit that contract within their payroll, and most already are set for years to come at first base(Yankees- Teixeira, Boston -A. Gonzalez, Philadelphia – R. Howard, Detroit – M. Cabrera, White Sox – Dunn and Konerko, etc.) The only teams I can come up with that could potentially fit besides St. Louis would be the Cubs (unlikely because of the rivalry), the Angels (unlikely because of absorbing Vernon Wells contract), and the Mets (I do not see it but do not have a great reason why) so I struggle to come up with legitimate competition for his services next off-season. So while I believe both sides will do some negotiating through the press and this will be a story all season, I think this essentially is a non-event and Pujols signs sometime after the season for 7 years and $200 plus million dollars. And as scary as it sounds, he might be worth every penny of that investment.

I will be back tomorrow with another column. Thanks again for reading and please continue to email your questions to: nationalsgm@gmail.com

January 24, 2011

While I realize that I am stealing this gimmick from others on the web (and from the Pepsi challenge ad campaign from my childhood), I thought this blind challenge could be enlightening. These three players that I am highlighting today are all starting pitchers that were available this off-season, and each player was heavily linked to the Nationals at some point. Lets look at the numbers and compare them:

“Player A” Numbers:
Career: 95 Starts, 558.0 IP, 4.68 ERA, 1.491 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 4.1 BB/9
2010: 23 Starts, 136.1 IP, 4.09 ERA, 1.496 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 4.5 BB/9
2009: 7 Starts, 47.0 IP, 5.55 ERA, 1.319 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9
2008: 21 Starts, 105.1 IP, 6.66 ERA, 1.804 WHIP, 5.7 K/9, 6.0 BB/9

“Player B” Numbers:
Career: 240 Starts, 1503.2 IP, 4.34 ERA, 1.334 WHIP, 5.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9
2010: 32 Starts, 221.0 IP, 3.75 ERA, 1.195 WHIP, 4.8 K/9, 1.5 BB/9
2009: 33 Starts, 199.1 IP, 5.10 ERA, 1.375 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 1.2 BB/9
2008: 7 Starts, 34.1 IP, 5.77 ERA, 1.485 WHIP, 3.9 K/9, 2.6 BB/9

“Player C” Numbers:
Career: 116 Starts, 710.2 IP, 5.02 ERA, 1.523 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 4.5 BB/9
cheap viagra usa So, you can purchase the medicine for the same. This way Tadalista Super Active works in prompting an erection, but remember they work only viagra free order on sexual stimulation. This means that an erection may occur up to 4 hours before sex depending on the effectiveness and tolerance viagra soft tab click to find out of others. It’s now been over 50 years since Hugh Hefner started Playboy magazine, his little cheapest viagra magazine for men about women, many of them naked. 2010: 20 Starts, 121.2 IP, 4.22 ERA, 1.315 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, 4.1 BB/9
2009: 32 Starts, 185.0 IP, 4.38 ERA, 1.378 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 4.0 BB/9
2008: 23 Starts, 130.0 IP, 4.92 ERA, 1.462 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 4.3 BB/9

After studying each player’s statistics, each has some strengths and some weaknesses compared to each other. Player A had a strong 2010, looks to be rather young based on the number of starts, and has a healthy strikeout rate. Player B had the best 2010 season, has the most experience and best career numbers, and does not walk many batters. Player C has the best strikeout ratio of the group, had a terrific 2009 season and his career trend shows progression. With all things being equal, I would probably choose Player B, as he looks to be the most reliable and is coming off the best season of the group, though an argument could likely be made for each individual.

However, like everything in life, not everything is equal. We must factor in age and contract situation. Player A, LHP Tom Gorzelanny, is 28 years old, will make $2.1 million in 2011 and is under team control through 2013. Player B, RHP Carl Pavano, is 35 years old, and was signed to a 2-year $16.5 million dollar contract by the Minnesota Twins last week. Player C, LHP Jorge De La Rosa, will be 30 years old this season, and signed a 2-year $21.5 million dollar contract with a $10.5 million player option for 2013 and a team option for 2014 with Colorado weeks ago. Pavano and De La Rosa were seen as the next best free agent starting pitchers after Cliff Lee this winter and both player’s agents made it clear that the Nationals would have had to make a greater offer than they agreed to in order to sign with Washington.

Now that we have a more complete picture of the players and their situations, Gorzelanny looks to be the best value and best option for the Nationals going forward. Pavano’s contract is not awful, but prior to 2010 his last good season was 2004, and at 35 years of age, I do not consider him to be a great bet to return positive value over the course of his contract. De La Rosa is a solid starter when healthy, but his health concerns would make me nervous to pay him $10 million plus dollars a year over the next three seasons. The bottom line is that each of these pitchers are fairly comparable, especially when you look only at their statistics and not on the name on the back of the uniform. And because there is such little difference between skill levels and such a drastic difference in salary, the Nationals clearly made the correct choice in trading for Tom Gorzelanny last week rather than spending ten to fifteen times more in salary to acquire a similar free agent starting pitcher. The Gorzelanny trade certainly looks much better for the Nationals when viewed from this perspective.