GottA Go – Washington Trades Trevor Gott to San Francisco

Wednesday morning the Washington Nationals continued their frenetic offseason overhaul of their pitching staff, sending RHP Trevor Gott to San Francisco for cash considerations.  Gott was designated for assignment last week when Washington needed to make space on their 40-man roster for Jeremy Hellickson.

Gott was acquired by Washington in December 2015 from Anaheim for Yunel Escobar following a strong 2015 for the Angels, posting a 3.02 ERA and 27 strikeouts over 47.2 innings pitched.  However, he generated three subpar seasons with Washington, throwing only 28 innings in 33 appearances and posting a 7.39 ERA with 24 strikeouts against 16 walks, plus 5 home runs allowed.  Nonetheless, his Triple-A numbers the past two years, 3.68 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 29.1 innings in 2018 and 3.86 ERA and 35 strikeouts in 37.1 innings in 2017, makes it puzzling he was not given a greater opportunity with the Nationals.  Overall, Gott possesses a 4.64 ERA over 75.2 major league innings, allowing 79 hits and 32 walks against 51 strikeouts.

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Gott is blessed with a mid-90s sinker and has shown the ability to generate ground balls, producing a 54.3% ground ball rate in the major leagues.  The rebuilding Giants are gambling a return to the west coast and a change of scenery will help the still only 26-years-old recapture his previous success.

At the beginning of this offseason, a breakup between Washington and Trevor Gott seemed inevitable, as Gott is out of minor league options and Washington had continually shown a hesitancy to give him opportunities to pitch major league innings.  It is still rather perplexing how quickly the organization soured on Trevor Gott, and from the outside looking in, how raw a deal he seemingly got in Washington.  San Francisco will give Gott an opportunity to prove Washington correct or not, but regardless, his tenure in Washington has to be considered highly disappointing.

I’ll Trade You A Tanner – Washington Trades Tanner Roark to Cincinnati

In their first move at the 2018 MLB Winter Meetings, Wednesday the Washington Nationals announced they had traded RHP Tanner Roark to Cincinnati in exchange for RHP Tanner Rainey.  Recent rumors had Washington’s front office uneasy about paying Roark’s expected $10 million salary next season in his final year before free agency, preferring to reallocate those funds.  Conversely the Reds had prioritized acquiring starting pitching this offseason, and used surplus bullpen depth to bring Roark’s talents to Cincinnati.

The 32-year-old Roark struggled through mechanical issues during 2018, but rebounded to provide Washington with a 9-15 record, a 4.34 ERA and 146 strikeouts over 180.1 innings pitched. It was a tale of two halves for Roark, who had a 4.87 ERA in the first half and 3.43 ERA in the second.  Over his 6-year career, Roark has provided the Nationals with 64-54 record and a 3.59 ERA over 935 innings pitched.  A durable workhorse, Roark has thrown 180+ four of the past five years and each season he was used as a starter.  Unfortunately, his ERA has been above 4 in three of the past four years, making Washington feel his durability is not as valuable as his productivity at his projected salary.

In return Washington receives almost 26-year-old right-handed reliever Tanner Rainey, who was Cincinnati’s 2nd round pick in 2015 and briefly reached the majors last season.  Rainey’s cameo in the big leagues was a bigger disaster than the movie Waterworld, as he threw only 7 innings but earned a 24.43 ERA with 12 walks and 4 home runs allowed against only 7 strikeouts.  In contrast, however, Rainey was outstanding at Triple-A in 2018, throwing 51innings and allowing only 25 hits and 35 walks against 65 strikeouts. 

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Rainey is blessed with dominant, back-of-the-bullpen stuff, possessing an upper-90s fastball that touches 100mph, along with a hard 90mph slider and the occasional changeup.  As the high walk totals confirm, Rainey possesses below-average or worse command.  He will need to improve this in order to reach his ceiling as a high-leverage late-inning reliever: his likely major league role will be working in middle relief, with underwhelming statistics compared to his impressive repertoire.

Overall this is a difficult trade to analyze, as this move feels like the first in a series of two or three connected transactions.  Washington’s biggest present weakness before this trade was their starting pitching depth behind Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and newly-signed Patrick (Don’t Call Me Baron) Corbin, and this move further depletes this area of need. 

In a vacuum, this trade was purely a salary dump for the Nationals, who did not want to pay Roark $10 million for 2019.  Through that lens, General Manager Mike Rizzo did well to clear all of Roark’s salary and receive a major league ready reliever with premium stuff.  Rainey is likely destined for a maddening career in middle relief, but there is a chance a change of scenery helps him improve his control. Nevertheless, I believe the Nationals (and their fan base) are woefully underestimating the importance of Roark’s durability, and I strongly fear this trade comes back to bite them in 2019. While I would happily gamble on Rainey’s upside, I would have passed on this offer from Cincinnati.

NatsGM Grade ->             C-

Nothing to Yan At – Gomes Coming to Washington

Friday afternoon, in the midst of non-tender deadline day, the Nationals and Indians struck a trade, with Cleveland sending catcher Yan Gomes to Washington for Daniel Johnson, Jefry Rodriguez and a Player To Be Named Later.  Washington prioritized upgrading at catcher this winter, and has quickly solidified the position by signing Kurt Suzuki a few weeks ago and now trading for Gomes.

The 31-year-old Gomes had a strong season in 2018, batting .266/.313/.449 with 16 home runs over 112 games played, along with securing his first all-star game appearance.  Gomes, a right-handed hitter, has a career .248/.295/.424 batting line.  In particular, he punishes left-handed pitching, producing a .801 career OPS against lefties verses a .682 OPS against righties.  Behind the plate Gomes has earned the reputation as an above-average or better defensive catcher, as he has strong pitch framing numbers and blocks errant pitches well.  In addition, Gomes does a solid job controlling the running game, as evidenced by his career 35% caught stealing percentage.  He will earn $7 million in 2019, with team options for $9 million in 2020 and $11 million in 2021.

In exchange Washington was first forced to part with 23-year-old Daniel Johnson, the Nationals’ 5th round pick in the 2016 MLB Draft.  The left-handed hitting and throwing outfielder broke out in 2017, his first full professional season, hitting .298/.356/.505 with 22 home runs.  Johnson struggled in 2018 with the promotion to Double-A, batting .269/.327/.412 with only 7 home runs.  In fairness, Johnson broke his hamate bone midseason, an injury notorious for sapping home run power.  There are concerns with his swing-and-miss, but Johnson has an intriguing combination of power and speed.

Defensively Johnson features a double-plus throwing arm and above-average speed.  Typically these tools would profile well in center field, but Johnson does not look particularly comfortable in the middle of the field.  He is a solid defender in either corner spot, but Cleveland would be wise to continue to develop him as a center fielder.  Johnson is raw and needs another season or two of minor league development, but the tools are there for him to become a league-average center fielder, with the likely outcome being a productive 4th outfielder.

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Finally, Cleveland will also acquire a Player To Be Named Later from the Nationals in this trade.  Although no names have been mentioned as of yet, expect this to be a young, raw pitcher in the lower levels of Washington’s farm system.

Overall this trade makes good sense for both clubs, as Cleveland had some catching depth and as a team blessed with a mid-market payroll, their front office sought to reallocate Gomes’s salary to fill bigger needs.  However, I am mildly surprised Cleveland preferred a return of two talented but raw prospects, and a Player To Be Named Later, rather than players that are likely to contribute in the majors next season.

From Washington’s perspective, this offer was nearly impossible to turn down, as they find an excellent tag-team partner for Kurt Suzuki without parting with anyone that was projected to impact the team in 2019.  Both Johnson and Rodriguez are boom-or-bust prospects with a non-zero chance of developing into impact players, yet their age and risk make them more likely supplemental pieces rather than major league starters.  Without knowing the Player To Be Named Later it is impossible to fully judge this deal, but it is difficult to imagine this trade not being a clear win for the Nationals.

Barraclough To The Rescue

Wednesday, the Washington Nationals began their offseason maneuvering by trading an undisclosed amount of International Bonus dollars to Miami in exchange for RHP Kyle Barraclough.  Due to penalties from previous years, Washington was barred from signed any international player for more than $300,000 this year, while Miami has been eagerly gobbling up these funds in an attempt to sign top prospect Victor Victor Mesa.  Washington’s bullpen struggled in 2018 and the Nationals’ hope Barraclough can help solidify their relief corps next season.

The 28-year-old Barraclough had a subpar 2018, providing Miami with a 4.20 ERA in 55.2 innings pitched, allowing 40 hits, 34 walks and 8 home runs against 60 strikeouts.  These numbers do not tell the full story, as Barraclough was a monster in the first half, allowing only a .124/.254/.217 batting line in 42.1 innings, before limping to a .361/.486/.667 in the second half.  He was placed on the disabled list in early August with a shoulder impingement, perhaps explaining his dreadful late-season performance.

During his 4-year major league career, Barraclough has pitched 218.2 innings for Miami with a 3.21 ERA, 11 saves and 279 strikeouts.  He has always struggled limiting his walks with a career 5.5 BB/9 ratio.  This is the main knock on Barraclough, otherwise, he has a career 11.5 K/9 ratio and limits both his hits and home runs allowed.  He attacks hitters with a mid-90s fastball and a nasty slider, along with the occasional changeup.  Barraclough is first-time arbitration eligible this winter and is under contract through 2021.
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Before I declare this trade to be a clear “Win” for Washington, we must keep in mind Barraclough is coming off a nightmarish second half and spent time on the disabled list for a shoulder issue.  In addition and perhaps correlated, Barraclough’s fastball velocity dropped more than 1mph in 2018, while his home runs allowed spiked.  Certainly an offseason to rest and recover could allow him to return to form in 2019, but Barraclough has more risk involved with him than his reputation suggests.

Overall this trade makes sense for both teams, as what they each received is far more valuable than what they traded away – Miami urgently needs international dollars and they have consistently traded relievers when they reach arbitration.  Conversely, international dollars are not especially valuable to Washington at present, so using them to acquire a player at a position of need is brilliant.  Washington desperately needs to rebuild their relief corps and despite the risks, Barraclough is a savvy gamble for the Nationals.

NatsGM Overall Grade ->             B+