5 Washington Nationals Free Agent Targets

This week Major League Baseball held their General Manager’s meetings, which is the unofficial start to the offseason and free agency.  Washington enters this offseason with much of their roster settled, yet with obvious issues at closer, catcher and depth throughout the roster, there is plenty of work to be done by the Nationals’ front office.

While big name free agents such as Yoenis Cespedes, Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen have been linked with Washington, I wanted to highlight five cheaper options that could also bolster Washington’s roster next season.

Jon Jay                                 OF                          San Diego Padres

A steady left-handed hitting outfielder, Jay has quietly produced a solid 7-year major league career, hitting .287/.352/.384 while playing all three outfield positions.  The almost 32-year-old was hitting .296/.345/.407 for the Padres last season before injuring himself in June.  Primarily a center fielder, Jay profiles best as a 4th outfielder at this point in his career due to his declining foot speed, range and lack of home run power.  That said Jay is a consistent, productive player and would fit well in Ben Revere’s role for Washington next year.  He might command a multiyear contract in this market, but could serve as a nice fallback option if Washington fails to acquire a long-term solution in center field this winter.

Steve Pearce                      1B/2B/LF              Baltimore Orioles

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This 10-year veteran had another productive major league season in 2016, hitting .288/.374/.492 with 13 home runs in 85 games for Tampa Bay and Baltimore.  Unfortunately, his season was cut short due to an injury to his forearm, an injury that should be healed before spring training.  The 33-year-old Pearce has a career .852 OPS against left-handed pitching, which when coupled with his defensive versatility makes him an ideal bench player.  His injury last season should keep his salary demands reasonable and Washington would be wise to sign him.

Jason Castro                      Catcher                                Houston Astros

The 29-year-old Castro finds himself in a unique position this winter, as he is probably the best free agent catcher behind the pricey Matt Wieters and the injured Wilson Ramos.  In addition, many teams, including the Nationals, need catchers this winter, making this a potentially expensive market with limited supply and high demand.

Sex will become less pleasurable but you will best viagra in uk get absolutely complete recovery. There are very little chances buying that purchase generic cialis to cure the erectile dysfunction of men. It has the viagra price signature Pfizer name that is impressed on one side. As they say, educate a teacher and thereby, you educate viagra samples an entire community. A former all-star, Castro has the reputation as a solid defensive catcher with strong framing skills.  Offensively Castro hit .210/.307/.377 in 113 games for Houston last year, in line with his career .232/.309/.390 batting line.  He struggles mightily against left-handed pitching with a career .536 OPS, making him an ideal platoon candidate.  If he can be had on a 2-year contract for $6-$7 million annually he could be a nice value, but odds are his numerous suitors drive that price significantly higher.

Greg Holland                    RHP                        Kansas City Royals

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Certainly Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman and Mark Melancon are the top closers on the market this winter and will receive consideration, but their potential salaries could have Washington seeking alternate options.  The almost 31-year-old Holland was one of the top relievers in baseball from 2011-2015, saving 145 games and making two all-star appearances before having Tommy John surgery in October 2015.  Holland spent all of last season recovering from surgery before performing earlier this week for scouts.

Assuming he is healthy, there should be enough interest for him to sign a multiyear deal, likely filled with contract incentives.  Holland is one of the more intriguing risk verses reward options in free agency this year and could be a nice option for Washington in the late innings.

Brad Ziegler                       RHP                        Boston Red Sox / Arizona Diamondbacks

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Although the primary bullpen need is at closer, do not be surprised if the Nationals also look for additional help for right-handed setup men Shawn Kelley and Blake Treinen.  Somewhat quietly the 37-year-old Ziegler has been one of the better relievers in baseball, posting a 2.44 ERA, 1.228 WHIP and 3.38 FIP over his 9-year career.  In addition he has notched 85 career saves, giving him experience as a closer.

Due to his age and unique side-arm throwing motion, most teams will view him as a right-handed specialist and set-up man, likely putting a ceiling on his salary demands.  However, as one of the better relievers on the market, he should have 10+ teams seeking his services, giving him a chance to sign a multiyear contract at $7 million or more per year.  If Washington does not bust their bullpen budget signing a closer, Ziegler could be a tremendous addition to the Nationals’ relief corps.

Analysis of the Stephen Strasburg Extension

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During Monday’s contest against Detroit, rumors began spreading and were confirmed Tuesday afternoon when the Washington Nationals and Stephen Strasburg announced they had agreed to terms on a 7-year contract extension worth $175 million.  Washington’s 1st round selection, 1st overall, in the 2009 MLB Draft, Strasburg was projected to be the top available free agent this coming offseason, making it rather surprising he signs this extension at this time.

The structure of the deal is somewhat unique, as Strasburg will earn $15 million per season from 2017-2023, with the remaining $70 million being deferred without interest and paid out at $10 million per year from 2024-2030.  In addition, the contract allows the 27-year-old Strasburg to opt out of the agreement after the third and fourth year.  Finally, he can earn an additional $1 million per year for each season he throws more than 180 innings.

After perhaps the most publicized collegiate career in a generation, it was difficult to imagine that Strasburg could live up to the pre-draft hype.  However, despite the cloud of skepticism surrounding his 2012 playoff shutdown, Strasburg has developed into one of the best starting pitchers in the National League.  Since his memorable debut in June 2010, Strasburg has a 59-37 record with a 3.07 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 10.5 K/9 and a 2.2 BB/9 over 825.2 innings pitched.

These fantastic numbers, plus his age, had Strasburg primed to be the top available free agent this winter in what is generally considered to be a weak class – this expectation, plus the fact that notoriously difficult negotiator Scott Boras is Strasburg’s agent, makes this extension both shocking and fascinating.

On the surface, it seems interesting that Strasburg signed for less guaranteed money than fellow comparable free agent pitchers Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez and teammate Max Scherzer did in recent years.  However, the injury risk associated with Strasburg would appear to be greater than those pitchers or similar free agent starters, as he had Tommy John surgery in 2011 and has thrown nearly 650 innings on the repaired elbow.  Understandably Strasburg valued the opportunity to sign for seven years and guarantee his family’s future with $175 million.  Plus, if he continues to pitch in similarly excellent fashion the next few years and/or the salaries paid to free agents continues to skyrocket, Strasburg could opt out of this deal and sign another massive contract after 2019 or 2020.

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Secondly, Washington has locked up Strasburg’s age 28-34 seasons, and most specifically, his age 28-30 or 28-31 seasons, also known as his prime, before he reaches the opt outs in the agreement.  Rarely do players reach free agency before 30, meaning teams are often signing these superstars never receiving the chance to capitalize on their supposed peak seasons.

Finally, in an environment where teams are paying $8+ million in free agency for 1 WAR (Win Above Replacement), in sheer economic terms the Nationals need Strasburg to be worth approximately 18-21 “Wins” from 2017-2023.  Considering he has been worth 20.4 WAR thus far in his career according to Fangraphs.com, it feels reasonably plausible he would double this output over the rest of his career, even assuming for little to no production in 2022 and 2023.

While the potential for injury cannot be ignored or overstated, the team has structured the contract where unless catastrophe strikes, Strasburg should be able to be “worth” his contract if he stays for all seven seasons through 2023.  That said, the best case scenario for Washington most likely has Strasburg dominate on the mound for the next several years, then opt out and sign with another organization for his post-prime seasons.

Looking ahead, this deal guarantees the Nationals to have Scherzer and Strasburg, likely along with uber-prospect Lucas Giolito, fronting their starting rotation beginning next season through the rest of the decade.  In what has to be considered the biggest “WOW” moment in franchise history since signing Jayson Werth as a free agent, the Nationals have made a calculated and wise gamble in signing Stephen Strasburg to this extension.

NatsGM Grade ->            Solid B

The Washington Nationals Agree To Terms With Bronson Arroyo

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Late Tuesday evening, after several days of rumor and speculation, the Washington Nationals agreed to terms on a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training with veteran right-handed starting pitcher Bronson Arroyo. According to reports, Arroyo will earn a $2 million base salary if he makes the Nationals’ roster, with an additional $6 million in performance-based incentives. Arroyo played for new Nationals’ manager Dusty Baker in Cincinnati for six years and this reunion allows him the opportunity to compete for a spot on a playoff contender this season.

The almost 39-year-old Arroyo has not pitched since June 2014 after falling victim to Tommy John surgery. Before this injury Arroyo had established himself as one of the most durable pitchers in baseball, throwing 199+ innings annually from 2005-2013. He does not possess elite stuff, as his fastball barely touches 87mph, but rather survives by limiting his walks (2.4 BB/9 career) and home runs allowed (1.2 HR/9). During his 15-year major league career Arroyo owns a 4.19 ERA, 4.37 xFIP, and a 5.81 K/9 ratio over his 2,364.2 innings pitched. In summary, if you look up “veteran innings-eating starting pitcher” in a baseball dictionary, Arroyo’s picture will be prominently displayed.
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Arroyo’s signing gives the Washington rotation veteran depth it was previous lacking on their roster. Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez comprise a formitable top-3, with Tanner Roark and Joe Ross projected as the #4 and #5 starters. However, questions surround Roark’s return to the rotation, along with how Ross will respond in his first full major league season. And prior to this signing, only “The Phenomenal One” A.J. Cole appeared to be major league ready depth behind the projected top-5. Now Arroyo offers a nice safety net in case of poor performance or injuries to the rotation. Plus he provides a potential bridge to the arrival of prospects Lucas Giolito or Reynaldo Lopez later in 2016.

Much like most minor league contracts, there is a chance Arroyo never pitches an inning for Washington due to his injury or current place on the depth chart. Nonetheless Arroyo does provide the organization with something they previously lacked, namely experienced depth serving as their “#6” starting pitcher. Assuming he is healthy nearly 19 months post-surgery, I believe Arroyo will secure a spot on the 25-man Opening Day roster and head north with Washington. There is virtually no risk involved in this deal, and the potential Arroyo returns to form as a league-average starting pitcher, making this a shrewd, intriguing gamble by Washington’s front office.

The Nationals Sign Daniel Murphy

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Rumors emerged on Christmas Eve and now the contract is official – the Washington Nationals have signed former New York Mets infielder Daniel Murphy to a 3-year contract worth $37.5 million, with $3 million deferred. It breaks down as Murphy will collect $8 million in 2016, $12 million in 2017 and $17.5 million in the final year.

In a corresponding move, the Nationals have designated for assignment RHP Erik Davis to clear room on the 40-man roster for Murphy. Also, because the Mets offered Murphy salary arbitration after the season, the Nationals will forfeit their 1st round pick next June, (17th overall). An All-Star selection in 2014 and the NLCS MVP last fall, Murphy will presumably replace Yunel Escobar, who was traded earlier this winter, in Washington’s infield next season.

Last season the 30-year-old Murphy hit .281/.322/.449 with 14 home runs and 54 extra base hits over 130 games played while splitting time at first, second and third base defensively. Murphy broke out on the national stage during the postseason, hitting .333/.333/.810 with 3 homers in the NLDS and .529/.556/1.294 with 4 bombs in the NLCS. In fact, he set a major league record by hitting a home run in six consecutive postseason games.

During the course of his 7-year major league career, Murphy is a .288/.331/.424 hitter with 62 home runs and 310 extra base hits over his 903 games played. Most impressively Murphy is an excellent contact hitter who rarely strikes out, as evidenced by his 38 total strikeouts in 2015 and career 12.2% K-rate. A left-handed hitter, Murphy should slot in well either in the #2 or #6 spot in the Nationals lineup next season.

Defensively Murphy has spent the majority of his career playing second base in New York, although he has seen plenty of action at both the hot and cold corners, in addition to left field. He has a reputation as a poor defensive second baseman, although metrics like UZR seem to grade him closer to fringe-average in recent years. Additionally his versatility with the glove is quite appealing to the Nationals, who have struggled with injuries to 1B Ryan Zimmerman, 3B Anthony Rendon and LF Jayson Werth in recent years. One should expect Murphy to serve as the opening day starter at second base next to Danny Espinosa at shortstop, with the hope that Trea Turner becomes the starting shortstop midseason forcing Espinosa into a valuable reserve capacity.

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Unfortunately somehow even with these positive attributes, it does not feel like Murphy is the perfect fit for Washington he appears to be on the surface. Some of this is due to the fact that Murphy was obviously the team’s third choice, behind free agent Ben Zobrist and trade target Brandon Phillips. Additionally, while Murphy is a “tough out”, he has never surpassed 14 home runs or 78 runs batted in during a season, making him an above-average, but not elite, batter. Furthermore, Murphy’s age and reputation as a poor defender do not inspire confidence in his ability to remain at the keystone for the duration of the contract.

Finally, as a self-professed draft and prospect nerd, it bothers me greatly to surrender a mid-1st round selection in this year’s draft. This crop of prospects is shaping up to be the best since 2011 and losing this pick hurts the farm system into the future. Analysts have placed an $8-$10 million “value” for a mid-1st round pick in recent research, so the forfeiture of this selection is a negative. The Nationals expect to receive compensation selections for the losses of Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond, which does soften the blow, but this piece cannot be overlooked when analyzing this transaction.

In conclusion Murphy is a perfect example of my top baseball resolution for 2016 – I want to focus on what players can do and do well, rather than prioritizing what they cannot do. While he is a decent overall baserunner and plays adequate defense, Murphy can flat out hit and has proven himself as a major league hitter. In this era of declining offense, it should not be taken for granted that the Nationals just acquired a player in his prime with a 109 career wRC+, who was a middle-of-the-order hitter for a division rival last season.

While the long-term cost was quite steep to improve, the Nationals are a stronger overall team the next few seasons with Daniel Murphy rather than Yunel Escobar. This fact makes it a solid acquisition for Washington. Unfortunately my overall opinion is tempered due to wanting a larger overall upgrade and my desire not to part with the team’s 1st round pick next June.

NatsGM Grade ->   C / C-