The Nationals Sign Daniel Murphy

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Rumors emerged on Christmas Eve and now the contract is official – the Washington Nationals have signed former New York Mets infielder Daniel Murphy to a 3-year contract worth $37.5 million, with $3 million deferred. It breaks down as Murphy will collect $8 million in 2016, $12 million in 2017 and $17.5 million in the final year.

In a corresponding move, the Nationals have designated for assignment RHP Erik Davis to clear room on the 40-man roster for Murphy. Also, because the Mets offered Murphy salary arbitration after the season, the Nationals will forfeit their 1st round pick next June, (17th overall). An All-Star selection in 2014 and the NLCS MVP last fall, Murphy will presumably replace Yunel Escobar, who was traded earlier this winter, in Washington’s infield next season.

Last season the 30-year-old Murphy hit .281/.322/.449 with 14 home runs and 54 extra base hits over 130 games played while splitting time at first, second and third base defensively. Murphy broke out on the national stage during the postseason, hitting .333/.333/.810 with 3 homers in the NLDS and .529/.556/1.294 with 4 bombs in the NLCS. In fact, he set a major league record by hitting a home run in six consecutive postseason games.

During the course of his 7-year major league career, Murphy is a .288/.331/.424 hitter with 62 home runs and 310 extra base hits over his 903 games played. Most impressively Murphy is an excellent contact hitter who rarely strikes out, as evidenced by his 38 total strikeouts in 2015 and career 12.2% K-rate. A left-handed hitter, Murphy should slot in well either in the #2 or #6 spot in the Nationals lineup next season.

Defensively Murphy has spent the majority of his career playing second base in New York, although he has seen plenty of action at both the hot and cold corners, in addition to left field. He has a reputation as a poor defensive second baseman, although metrics like UZR seem to grade him closer to fringe-average in recent years. Additionally his versatility with the glove is quite appealing to the Nationals, who have struggled with injuries to 1B Ryan Zimmerman, 3B Anthony Rendon and LF Jayson Werth in recent years. One should expect Murphy to serve as the opening day starter at second base next to Danny Espinosa at shortstop, with the hope that Trea Turner becomes the starting shortstop midseason forcing Espinosa into a valuable reserve capacity.

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Unfortunately somehow even with these positive attributes, it does not feel like Murphy is the perfect fit for Washington he appears to be on the surface. Some of this is due to the fact that Murphy was obviously the team’s third choice, behind free agent Ben Zobrist and trade target Brandon Phillips. Additionally, while Murphy is a “tough out”, he has never surpassed 14 home runs or 78 runs batted in during a season, making him an above-average, but not elite, batter. Furthermore, Murphy’s age and reputation as a poor defender do not inspire confidence in his ability to remain at the keystone for the duration of the contract.

Finally, as a self-professed draft and prospect nerd, it bothers me greatly to surrender a mid-1st round selection in this year’s draft. This crop of prospects is shaping up to be the best since 2011 and losing this pick hurts the farm system into the future. Analysts have placed an $8-$10 million “value” for a mid-1st round pick in recent research, so the forfeiture of this selection is a negative. The Nationals expect to receive compensation selections for the losses of Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond, which does soften the blow, but this piece cannot be overlooked when analyzing this transaction.

In conclusion Murphy is a perfect example of my top baseball resolution for 2016 – I want to focus on what players can do and do well, rather than prioritizing what they cannot do. While he is a decent overall baserunner and plays adequate defense, Murphy can flat out hit and has proven himself as a major league hitter. In this era of declining offense, it should not be taken for granted that the Nationals just acquired a player in his prime with a 109 career wRC+, who was a middle-of-the-order hitter for a division rival last season.

While the long-term cost was quite steep to improve, the Nationals are a stronger overall team the next few seasons with Daniel Murphy rather than Yunel Escobar. This fact makes it a solid acquisition for Washington. Unfortunately my overall opinion is tempered due to wanting a larger overall upgrade and my desire not to part with the team’s 1st round pick next June.

NatsGM Grade ->   C / C-

1 thought on “The Nationals Sign Daniel Murphy

  1. I’m going to have to disagree regarding the loss of the draft pick. With Harper only guaranteed to be a Nat for three more seasons they need to do what they can to win within that window, and even the most MLB ready mid-1st rounder would be unlikely to become an impact player in the bigs until 2018 at the earliest.

    It seems like the plan all along was to have the blow of losing that pick softened with the two supplemental picks, so mission accomplished there.

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