Author Archives: Ryan Sullivan

Sleeper Alert – Washington Nationals LHP Taylor Guilbeau

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Washington drafted Taylor Guilbeau in the 10th round of the 2015 MLB Draft after a solid career at the University of Alabama.  Guilbeau’s first two full professional years were split between the starting rotation and bullpen, before transitioning exclusively to relief in 2018.  The shift was a revelation, as Guilbeau posted a 2.52 ERA and 35 strikeouts in 35.2 innings pitched last season.  In particular Guilbeau overmatched left-handed hitters, holding them to a .184 average and 20 strikeouts.  This success, plus being Rule 5 eligible this winter, caused the organization to send him to the Arizona Fall League, where he continued pitching well with a 1.74 ERA in 10.1 innings.

Listed at 6’4” 180lbs, Guilbeau has long limbs and a lean, wiry frame.  The 25-year-old throws from a low 3/4s arm slot, which combined with his lanky frame, creates tremendous deception to opposing lefties.  He struggles to repeat his delivery, which does not show up in his walks allowed total but hinders his command of the strike zone.  He will flash fringe-average command on his best days, but it is below-average overall.

Guilbeau utilizes a three pitch repertoire of a fastball, slider and changeup, although he’s primarily a fastball – slider pitcher who throws the occasional cambio.  The fastball sits 92-95mph, touching 96mph on rare occasions, with some sink down at the knees and natural life above the letters.  The shift to the bullpen has done wonders for his velocity, which sat more 89-92mph in my viewings in previous years.  His best off-speed pitch is a hard upper-80s slider that is extremely difficult for lefties to square up.  It has plenty of tilt, which induces whiffs but makes it difficult to command in the zone.  Finally he throws a mid-80s changeup with good velocity separation from the fastball, but the pitch is firm and lacks much natural movement.
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The Nationals made a somewhat surprising decision this week not to add Guilbeau to the 40-man roster, thus leaving him exposed to the Rule 5 draft next month.  No question his age, short track record of success as a reliever and not pitching above A-ball were the reasons Washington did not protect him.  Yet, I fear there is a reasonable chance he is selected next month, as there was a buzz amongst scouts in the Arizona Fall League talking about Guilbeau’s increased velocity and success against left-handed hitters.  Frankly, I would have added him to 40-man roster.

Guilbeau is an intriguing left-handed relief prospect due to his impressive fastball velocity, hard breaking slider, and success neutralizing lefties.  His lack of a plus off-speed pitch, coupled with his below-average command, limits his major league ceiling to a lefty specialist who works in middle relief.  However, he has the right disposition to work in relief, along with enough velocity and deception in his delivery to get major leaguers out.  He should begin next season at Double-A and could see time in the majors as soon as 2019.

Who Says You Can’t Go Home? Kurt Suzuki Signs With Washington

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In rather stealth fashion, Monday news broke the Washington Nationals had agreed to a 2-year deal worth $10 million with free agent Kurt Suzuki.  The terms of the deal have the 35-year-old catcher earning $4 million in 2019 and $6 million in 2020.  This move signifies a homecoming for Suzuki, as he played 122 games for Washington in 2012 and 2013.  In addition, this is the third significant acquisition by the Nationals already this offseason, as they previously traded for Kyle Barraclough and signed Trevor Rosenthal.

The right-handed hitting Suzuki had a strong 2018 playing for division rival Atlanta, batting .271/.332/.444 with 12 home runs in 105 games.  Over his 12-year career, he is a .258/.315/.387 hitter and has slugged 114 home runs.  Of note, he is particularly adept at avoiding strike outs, as evidenced by his 43 strikeouts in 348 at-bats last season and career 11.7% strikeout rate.  Suzuki should provide a dramatic upgrade offensively at catcher for Washington, which saw a collective .214/.304/.320 batting line in 2018.

Defensively Suzuki’s skills lag behind his bat, as he is below-average at throwing out opposing baserunners and has poor marks as a pitch framer.  On the other hand, he is terrific at blocking errant pitches in the dirt and has a strong reputation calling pitches.  The pitch framing weakness is concerning, but Suzuki is likely a below-average to fringe-average defensive catcher at this stage of his career.
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Overall this feels like a tremendous addition by the Nationals.  I still hope Washington adds another catcher this winter to pair with Suzuki, both to improve the position in 2019 and allow youngsters Spencer Kieboom, Raudy Read and Pedro Severino additional seasoning in the minors.  In addition, acquiring said catcher would allow Suzuki to play closer to 80-100 games next season, which should keep him fresher down the stretch and help extend his career.

Certainly we must acknowledge the inherent risks of signing any 35-year-old player, let alone a catcher, even if he has caught 94+ games 10 of the past 11 seasons.  And Suzuki is not the defensive dynamo every team covets from a catcher.  Yet, the combination of his above-average hitting and fringe-average defense makes him a league-average, starting catcher.  This is a savvy move by Washington’s front office, and on a “risk vs. return” basis, I expect this to be a contender for wisest free agent signing this offseason.

NatsGM Grade   ->   B+

Scouting Beer – Strong Arm IPA from Three Heads Brewing

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Like an area scout discovering an unknown prospect, recently NatsGM superfan Matt N. spotted Three Heads Brewing’s Strong Arm IPA sitting on the shelves of a New England grocery store and thoughtfully snagged a 4-pack for me to sample.

Due to the obvious baseball theme, plus the fact that NatsGM proudly supports local breweries, I figured we should bring back this recurring column and scout this beer.  Using a modified 20-80 scouting scale, Mrs. NatsGM and I held a beer tasting to properly evaluate this ale.  Below are our grades and a few notes on this delicious IPA.

Marketing & Presentation:         NatsGM  – 65      /             Mrs. NatsGM – 70

The beers come as a 4-pack of 16 ounce cans bound with a plastic binding.  The cans have a witty cartoon drawing of a left-handed pitcher delivering a hop, rather than a ball, toward home plate.  The pitcher is sporting a humorous, Rollie Fingers type mustache, which particularly stands out, along with vibrant colors on the jersey.  The dark background colors and lack of a box keeps it from a double-plus grade for me, but we are both huge fans of the cans’ artwork.

Appearance & Aroma:                  NatsGM  – 65      /             Mrs. NatsGM – 70

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Flavor & Taste:                                NatsGM  – 65      /             Mrs. NatsGM – 80

We both greatly enjoyed this IPA, as it has a quality flavor with plenty of hoppiness and a slight lemon citrus flavor.  This is not an overpowering IPA, as it is easy to drink and has a surprisingly mild finish on the palate.  We both described the flavor as crisp without being dry, slightly mild for an IPA and very smooth.  It is on the milder side for a traditional IPA, with only 6% ABV and 60 IBUs.

Overall:                               NatsGM – 65       /             Mrs. NatsGM – 75

Both Mrs. NatsGM and I agree this is a high quality and well-made craft beer offering from Three Heads Brewing based in Rochester, New York.  I would recommend this beer to most any fan of IPAs, but particularly those that prefer a mild, tropical flavor to a stronger hoppy taste.

It comes in four 16 ounce cans and costs approximately $11 per 4-pack, so it is not an inexpensive purchase.  However, considering the unique artwork and superior taste, Strong Arm IPA is a worthwhile purchase and a perfect gift idea for the (over 21-year-old) baseball fan in your life this upcoming holiday season.

For more information, visit ThreeHeadsBrewing.com and @3HeadsBrewing on Twitter!

THE NatsGM Show #139 – Guest Trevor Kieboom

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THE NatsGM Show Episode #139 is now available for download and we proudly welcome MLB Certified Agent for Vanguard Sports Group, Trevor Kieboom!

Our conversation with Trevor begins with sharing the backstory of his playing career, how he became an agent and introduces his company Vanguard.  Next Trevor describes representing his brothers Spencer and Carter, plus how it affects their familial relationship.  Finally he shares his thoughts on the new Mets’ General Manager Brodie Van Wagenen and his unique shift from representing labor to working for ownership.

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