Mere days after being selected in the 1^st round, 29^th overall, by the Washington Nationals, University of Florida right-handed pitcher Dane Dunning found himself on the mound in a deciding game against Florida State, with the winner going to Omaha and the College World Series.  Eager to see what type of talent the Nationals added to their organization, I decided to do an Armchair Evaluation of Dunning’s recent outing on June 13th.

Due to the depth of the Florida pitching staff, the 21-year-old Dunning has spent most of his 3 years in Gainesville starting for the Gators during the midweek and pitching in relief on the weekend.  However, he would serve as the Friday starter for approximately 90% of college teams and would pitch in the weekend rotation for every other team besides the loaded Florida Gators.  Prior to this season he struggled with his command and control of the strike zone, but made major strides as a junior, posting 85 strikeouts against only 12 walks in 75 innings pitched this season.

Against a stout Florida State lineup, Dunning entered the game in the 4^th inning in relief of A.J. Puk and pitched 4.1 innings, allowing 0 runs on 4 hits and 0 walks against 5 strikeouts.  Dunning needed 67 pitches to get these 13 outs (47 strikes & 20 balls), getting 5 fly outs and 3 ground outs.

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In this appearance Dunning showed an impressive 3-pitch arsenal, featuring a 91-95mph fastball (according to the television radar gun) with extreme movement to his arm-side.  In fact, several times I misidentified his fastball as a changeup because of the extreme movement and sinking action.  Additionally, Dunning showed an impressive 78-84mph slider with 12-6 movement, which induced several swings-and-misses.  Finally he threw two mid-80s changeups with some sinking movement resembling his fastball, and shows promise due to the 10+mph separation.  Dunning shows average or better command and control of the strike zone, along with an aggressive attitude toward attacking hitters.  Overall, I would put a “60” or better on the fastball, particularly due to the movement, a “50/55” on the slider and an “Incomplete/45” on the changeup.

After watching this appearance by Dane Dunning, I find myself rather fired up that the Nationals were able to select someone of his talent at pick #29.  He pitches extremely well off his fastball, an easy plus offering, and his slider was more impressive in this outing than it was by reputation pre-draft.  He will need to refine both his off-speed pitches if he wants to be a starter, but the potential exists for Dunning to have a plus fastball and two average to above-average off-speed pitches.

Assuming he stays healthy and can strengthen his arm for the rigors of pitching 180+ innings per season, Dunning projects as a strong #3/#4 starter, with the floor of a late-inning reliever.  Considering his high floor and reasonably high ceiling, Dunning was an astute pick by the Nationals at the end of Round 1.