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After spending the past two days examining hitters and pitchers that should be targeted, and avoided, in drafts this year, today we shift the focus to players being selected later in drafts, also commonly referred to as Sleepers.  With the amount of information about fantasy baseball on the internet, it is difficult to find a true sleeper these days, as players are rarely overlooked in drafts.

The term “sleeper” has evolved over the years and has different meanings to various fantasy players.  While many consider someone who outplays his average draft position to be a sleeper, for me this fails to capture the concept – a late round pick who will be the difference between a middle-of-the-pack finish and winning a championship.  For the purposes of this piece, I have identified sleepers as a player being drafted, on average, outside of the Top 200 picks, who should return excellent value this season.

Ubaldo Jimenez                               Baltimore Orioles RHP

More inconsistent than the DC weather this winter, Jimenez has his flaws, most notably inconsistent pitching mechanics that lead to difficulties throwing strikes.  Nevertheless, Jimenez posted 100 in his last 81 innings pitched last season, and provided Cleveland with a 3.30 ERA and 194 strikeouts in 182.2 innings in 2013.  It is nearly impossible to find a pitcher with 200 strikeout potential and his potential is far too enticing for me to ignore late in drafts.

Howie Kendrick                                Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 2B

Kendrick’s not sexy like Kate Upton, but he is still only 30-years-old and has a .292/.322/.429 career batting line.  The Angels’ offense should improve this season with healthy seasons from Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton, along with the acquisition of David Freese, and Kendrick could benefit from the rejuvenated lineup.  If you happen to miss out on second base early, or are looking for a middle infielder in the later rounds, you could do much worse than Kendrick, who should bat .290 with 10-15 home runs and 10-15 steals in 2014.

Colby Rasmus                   Toronto Blue Jays OF

Rasmus has been on the radar of prospect nerds for many years, but he is only 28-years-old and coming off a .276/24/66 2013 season.  A free agent at the end of the season, I will be gambling on Rasmus having a breakout season en route to signing a ridiculous free agent contract next winter. 

Anthony Rendon              Washington Nationals 2B/3B

I will understandably receive the “Homer” catcalls on this selection, but his keen batting eye, exceptional bat speed, and potential to bolster your team’s batting average makes him an interesting gamble late in drafts.  Eligible at second and third base, two relatively weak fantasy positions, draft Rendon with confidence and hope his home run power emerges in 2014.

Nick Swisher                      Cleveland Indians 1B/OF

Did you miss out on power early in the draft in favor of pitching?  Well let me introduce you Nick Swisher, who has 9 consecutive 20+ home run seasons and is going after Round 16.  He does not have the highest ceiling, but Swisher is a consistent player with some HR and RBI upside being overlooked in drafts.

Yordano Ventura             Kansas City Royals RHP

This choice would have looked better a week ago before the Royals formally announced Ventura would start the season in their rotation.  But I am the guy who took Jose Fernandez in the final round last season, and I will go back to the well this year with Ventura, a smallish pitcher with a monster fastball, solid offspeed pitches, and a potentially strong defensive team behind him.  He is surely climbing draft boards ahead of the season, but Ventura is one of the better late round gambles I can remember in recent years. 

On a related note, did you know Aloe Blacc wrote the song “I’m the Man” about Yordano Ventura? 

The entire topic of pitching in fantasy baseball drafts always seems to cause intense discussion, as everyone has a definitive opinion on the subject.  Do you draft pitching early to try to gain an advantage, or do you prefer drafting supposedly safer hitters early and fill out your lineup?  Do you draft proven closers looking for saves, or do you ignore this category and prefer to find saves during the season?

The injury bug has hit numerous pitchers this spring, including Patrick Corbin, Kris Medlen, and Jarrod Parker, shrinking some of the pitching depth available this season.  These injuries has made this a more shallow position than experts might have predicted a few weeks ago.  It also could give already risk-averse fantasy players another reason to avoid selecting pitchers early in drafts. 

Nevertheless, as offense has declined in recent seasons, the pitching depth has improved as well, although experts now argue the gap between the elite pitchers and the good ones has widened.  This has forced me to alter my draft strategy in recent years, as I now draft 2-3 starting pitchers early, and hunt for bargains, including closers, later after filling out my offense.  After participating in far too many baseball drafts this spring, these are the Pitchers I Like More and Less than the general public this year.

Pitchers I Like More Than Consensus

Chris Archer                       SP           Tampa Bay Rays

Archer is my #1 Must-Draft player this season, as his mid-90s fastball, devastating slider, and rapidly developing changeup gives him one of the best repertoires in the American League.  Pitching for a Rays’ team expecting to compete for the division and known for its outstanding defense, Archer is primed at age-25 for an All-Star caliber season in 2014.  Like Damien from the movie Mean Girls, Archer is a star on the rise. 

Andrew Cashner              SP           San Diego Padres

Large win totals are difficult to count on from any San Diego pitcher, but Cashner’s raw stuff, ability to induce strikeouts, and pitcher-friendly home stadium make him an intriguing gamble in the middle rounds.  His injury-history is lengthy and worrisome, but the talent is undeniable and his ceiling is likely larger than any pitcher available after Round 12.  

Matt Cain                            SP           San Francisco Giants

Cain has been one of the most consistent starting pitchers in baseball the past few seasons, but he suffered from a difficult season in 2013, posting a subpar 8-10 record with a 4.00 ERA over 184.1 innings pitched.  I expect the Giants to have a rebound season in 2014, largely due to a rebound season from Cain.  I project Cain to recapture his previous magic this season with 15 wins and the low-to-mid-3s ERA we are accustomed to from this outstanding pitcher.

Johnny Cueto                    SP           Cincinnati Reds

I know the durability concerns are legitimate, which along with pitching in a hitter-friendly home park make him a risky fantasy selection.  However, Cueto is a near Ace-level pitcher when healthy, and has thrown 156+ innings five consecutive years before 2013, making him perhaps more durable than most might recall.  Take advantage of his poor, injury-filled 2013 season to pick up a bargain in the later rounds of your draft. 

Pitchers I Like Less Than Consensus

Masahiro Tanaka             SP           New York Yankees

Tanaka should have a solid season in 2014, but with a poor defensive infield expected behind him, along with the possibility the Yankees could have a mediocre season, Tanaka is being overvalued as a 5th-7th round choice in fantasy drafts.  With the amount of question marks surrounding Tanaka, let someone else buy into his enormous Justin Bieber-like hype and select a similar option such as Mat Latos, or James Shields. 

Doug Fister                         SP           Washington Nationals

In December I fully expected Fister to be on the “I like” list, but after a spring with elbow concerns, along with a 6.28 career K/9 ratio, Fister is currently being overvalued in drafts.  If he’s healthy this season, Fister should be a solid starter, though probably a better real-life player than fantasy.  However, considering the surrounding injury issue, it would be wise to pass on him in favor of Jon Lester or Jeff Samardzija in the middle rounds of your draft.

Anibal Sanchez                 SP           Detroit Tigers

An immensely talented pitcher overshadowed in Detroit’s rotation by Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, Sanchez provided the Tigers with a career year in 2013, posting a 2.57 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 182 innings pitched.  Now 30-years-old with past injury concerns, let someone else buy Sanchez’s outstanding 2013 statistics and instead choose a safer option like Zach Greinke or Jordan Zimmermann.

 Please come back tomorrow, as I publicly announce my favorite 2014 fantasy sleepers. 

Although less popular than its brother, fantasy football, fantasy baseball is an excellent way for passionate baseball fans to develop a stronger knowledge of the players throughout the sport and become more personally engaged in the various games played.  It takes a committed fan to set his or her lineup each day and manage a team through a 162 game season, but the rewarding feeling of a championship captured in fantasy baseball is a testament to the dedication of a diehard fan. 

Of the many fans that play fantasy baseball, the overwhelming majority of drafts will occur during the next two weeks leading up the Opening Day.  In an effort to help everyone capture a fantasy title and bragging rights with their friends, here is Part-1 of the NatsGM Fantasy Baseball Preview, in which I highlight batters I like more or less than the general consensus. 

Bats I Like More Than Consensus

Brian McCann                    New York Yankees Catcher

The catching position feels reasonably deep this year, especially when players like Miguel Montero and Carlos Ruiz go undrafted in many 10 team leagues.  That said McCann appears poised for a monster season in New York this year, and I have seen him drafted in the Round 8-10 in leagues so far.  When compared with Buster Posey, who is going in Rounds 3-4, McCann appears to be a screaming bargain this season. 

Jose Abreu                         Chicago White Sox 1B

In his rookie season from Cuba, Abreu provides the savvy fantasy player the opportunity to take advantage of most people’s lack of familiarity with him to find a bargain in the later rounds.  Abreu is going after Round 10 in most leagues, and should post similar numbers to many first basemen drafted several rounds earlier.  Draft Abreu, and gleefully watch him post a .275/25/85 type season (or better) for the White Sox in 2014. 

Xander Bogaerts              Boston Red Sox SS/3B

Not the typical player I would put on this list, but I am completed infatuated with Bogaerts’ talent like a teenage boy with his first crush.  I have seen Bogaerts going outside of the Top 125 picks in many drafts, but he will not last past pick #100 in any draft in which I am involved.  I am predicting a .280/15/75 type season for Bogaerts, with significant upside for more from the precocious youngster.

Nelson Cruz                       Baltimore Orioles OF

A poor defensive player with injury concerns, signed to a 1-year, prove it contract and expected to play designated hitter – this is a recipe for a under the radar monster fantasy seasons.  Let others make “steroid” puns and joke about his injury history, slyly smile at them and count on Cruz hitting 25+ home runs and driving in 80+ runs this year in Camden Yards, with a handful of steals an added bonus from this underrated fantasy outfielder. 

Bats I Like Less Than Consensus

Buster Posey                     San Francisco Giants Catcher

This choice is less a reflection on Posey, a consistent, quality-hitting catcher, and more of a statement toward the depth of this position this season.  As good as Posey should be this season (.290/15/75), there are several catchers, such as Jonathan LuCroy and Salvador Perez, who should post similar numbers many rounds later.  Wait on catcher this season, and look for bargains in the middle rounds of your draft. 

Brandon Phillips              Cincinnati Reds 2B

A consistent middle infielder who at 32-years-old has now entered the decline phase of his career, Phillips should post another quality season, with numbers around .270/17/80 with a handful of steals; certainly not a bad option but Phillips is being overdrafted in Rounds 6-8.  I would prefer to select more promising players at other positions, and wait for younger second base options like Jedd Gyorko, Jurickson Profar, or Anthony Rendon.

Hunter Pence                    San Francisco Giants OF

A consistently, reliable veteran, Hunter Pence is coming off a career season at age 30 for San Francisco in 2013 with 27 home runs and 22 stolen bases.  While I expect another solid season from Pence in 2014 (.285/22/10SBs), let your fellow owner overpay for Pence on draft day, and look at similar options with greater upside such as Jason Heyward, Desmond Jennings, or Wil Myers.