The entire topic of pitching in fantasy baseball drafts always seems to cause intense discussion, as everyone has a definitive opinion on the subject. Do you draft pitching early to try to gain an advantage, or do you prefer drafting supposedly safer hitters early and fill out your lineup? Do you draft proven closers looking for saves, or do you ignore this category and prefer to find saves during the season?
The injury bug has hit numerous pitchers this spring, including Patrick Corbin, Kris Medlen, and Jarrod Parker, shrinking some of the pitching depth available this season. These injuries has made this a more shallow position than experts might have predicted a few weeks ago. It also could give already risk-averse fantasy players another reason to avoid selecting pitchers early in drafts.
Nevertheless, as offense has declined in recent seasons, the pitching depth has improved as well, although experts now argue the gap between the elite pitchers and the good ones has widened. This has forced me to alter my draft strategy in recent years, as I now draft 2-3 starting pitchers early, and hunt for bargains, including closers, later after filling out my offense. After participating in far too many baseball drafts this spring, these are the Pitchers I Like More and Less than the general public this year.
Pitchers I Like More Than Consensus
Chris Archer SP Tampa Bay Rays
Archer is my #1 Must-Draft player this season, as his mid-90s fastball, devastating slider, and rapidly developing changeup gives him one of the best repertoires in the American League. Pitching for a Rays’ team expecting to compete for the division and known for its outstanding defense, Archer is primed at age-25 for an All-Star caliber season in 2014. Like Damien from the movie Mean Girls, Archer is a star on the rise.
Andrew Cashner SP San Diego Padres
Large win totals are difficult to count on from any San Diego pitcher, but Cashner’s raw stuff, ability to induce strikeouts, and pitcher-friendly home stadium make him an intriguing gamble in the middle rounds. His injury-history is lengthy and worrisome, but the talent is undeniable and his ceiling is likely larger than any pitcher available after Round 12.
Matt Cain SP San Francisco Giants
Cain has been one of the most consistent starting pitchers in baseball the past few seasons, but he suffered from a difficult season in 2013, posting a subpar 8-10 record with a 4.00 ERA over 184.1 innings pitched. I expect the Giants to have a rebound season in 2014, largely due to a rebound season from Cain. I project Cain to recapture his previous magic this season with 15 wins and the low-to-mid-3s ERA we are accustomed to from this outstanding pitcher.
Johnny Cueto SP Cincinnati Reds
I know the durability concerns are legitimate, which along with pitching in a hitter-friendly home park make him a risky fantasy selection. However, Cueto is a near Ace-level pitcher when healthy, and has thrown 156+ innings five consecutive years before 2013, making him perhaps more durable than most might recall. Take advantage of his poor, injury-filled 2013 season to pick up a bargain in the later rounds of your draft.
Pitchers I Like Less Than Consensus
Masahiro Tanaka SP New York Yankees
Tanaka should have a solid season in 2014, but with a poor defensive infield expected behind him, along with the possibility the Yankees could have a mediocre season, Tanaka is being overvalued as a 5th-7th round choice in fantasy drafts. With the amount of question marks surrounding Tanaka, let someone else buy into his enormous Justin Bieber-like hype and select a similar option such as Mat Latos, or James Shields.
Doug Fister SP Washington Nationals
In December I fully expected Fister to be on the “I like” list, but after a spring with elbow concerns, along with a 6.28 career K/9 ratio, Fister is currently being overvalued in drafts. If he’s healthy this season, Fister should be a solid starter, though probably a better real-life player than fantasy. However, considering the surrounding injury issue, it would be wise to pass on him in favor of Jon Lester or Jeff Samardzija in the middle rounds of your draft.
Anibal Sanchez SP Detroit Tigers
An immensely talented pitcher overshadowed in Detroit’s rotation by Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, Sanchez provided the Tigers with a career year in 2013, posting a 2.57 ERA and 202 strikeouts in 182 innings pitched. Now 30-years-old with past injury concerns, let someone else buy Sanchez’s outstanding 2013 statistics and instead choose a safer option like Zach Greinke or Jordan Zimmermann.
Please come back tomorrow, as I publicly announce my favorite 2014 fantasy sleepers.