Like so many area kids counting down the days until the school year ends and summer vacation begins, I have found myself focusing on the clock in anticipation of Thursday night and the start of the 2013 MLB Draft. Although the Nationals only have one pick, #68 overall, Thursday evening, I am excited to see how general manager Mike Rizzo and the Nationals scouting department approach this draft as they attempt to replenish the farm system.
Last year the Nationals shocked everyone by selecting injured pitching prospect Lucas Giolito, then going decidedly college-heavy with their remaining picks in order to find enough bonus pool money to sign him. The Nationals could employ a similar strategy again this year and select a falling talent like Indiana State pitcher Sean Manaea, or they could divert from last year and have a more balanced approach, attempting to add depth to their lower minors.
Yesterday, I examined some of the top hitting prospects available in this year’s draft, and today in Part 2, I attempt to familiarize everyone with some of the top pitchers available. Obviously there will be plenty of pitchers selected in the 1st round I have failed to highlight, but these reports only include pitchers I have watched numerous times and can give a somewhat educated opinion on their potential. Below are my personal scouting notes on some of the top pitching prospects in this year’s draft.
Pitchers
Jonathan Gray RHP University of Oklahoma
A huge kid with an even bigger fastball, Gray has impressively flown up draft boards, going from a 13th round pick out of high school and an 11th round pick in 2011 out of junior college, Gray now has an excellent chance of being the top pick in the 2013 draft. Gray has overwhelmed hitters this season with a monster 95-97mph fastball that touches 100mph, a swing-and-miss caliber slider, and inconsistent but promising changeup.
Gray has a huge, thick body, and a relatively fluid pitching motion, leading scouts to believe he will remain a starter as a professional. He will need some time in the minors to improve his motion and the consistency of his off-speed stuff, but his fastball and slider combination give him as high a ceiling as anyone in this draft. There is more development risk with Gray than a team might prefer from a top-3 selection, but if everything clicks, Gray has the potential to become one of the ten best starting pitchers in baseball in a few years.
Mark Appel RHP Stanford University
In contention to be the top overall pick in the 2012 draft before sliding to 8th overall to the Pirates, Appel spurned Pittsburgh’s offers and decided to return to Stanford for his senior season. While many questioned his decision last summer, it appears Appel has beaten the odds and improved his stock and the signing bonus he can command.
Appel features a powerful mid-90s fastball, a sharp biting slider, and a reasonable changeup as well. Combined with a solid, refined throwing motion and good command of the strike zone, Appel should be relatively quick to the major leagues and seemingly has a high floor as a #3-#4 starting pitcher. However, if he can improve his changeup and the movement on his impressive fastball, Appel could be better than a mid-rotation starter. Appel is probably the safest pick in the 2013 draft, and might be the first to reach the major leagues.
Ryne Stanek RHP University of Arkansas
Drafted by Seattle three years ago, Stanek was impressive in his first two seasons at Arkansas and entered this year as one of the names mentioned to be the top overall selection. Stanek stumbled a bit this season, perhaps with a slight case of Draft-itis, posting a 79/41 strikeout to walk ratio in 97.1 innings this spring, though he did produce an excellent 10-2 record and 1.39 ERA.
Stanek has a promising three pitch repertoire including a power low-to-mid 90s fastball, a very good but inconsistent slider, and the makings of a good changeup. His pitching delivery is not especially pretty, and needs some polish with a good minor league pitching coach, but he has an excellent pitcher’s frame with room to add weight and strength. Stanek will need more development in the minor leagues than one might expect from a college pitcher in the SEC conference, but if a team can practice patience, Stanek has a chance to be one of the best players from the draft ten years from now.
Ryan Eades RHP Louisiana State University
Pitching on the weekend the past three years in deferment to Kevin Gausman and Aaron Nola, Eades’ talent is impressive in his own right. Eades has a lean, projectable body and a heavy mid-90s fastball, an impressive curveball, and an improving changeup. However, his statistics leave scouts questioning how his stuff will translate as a professional, as he allowed 98 hits and 30 walks against only 77 strikeouts in 96 innings this season. The team that drafts Eades on Thursday will focus on his projectable frame, present repertoire, and promise of developing into a #3 starter in a few years.
My Favorites
Jonathan Crawford RHP University of Florida
Somewhat overlooked in his college career by the sheer number of talented players Florida has had on their roster the past three seasons, Crawford assumed the role of Friday starter for the Gators this season and pitched well, posting a 3.84 ERA in 86 innings this season. Owning a stocky, thick frame, Crawford pounds the strike zone with a powerful mid-90s fastball, a hard slider, and a less than average changeup.
His motion does have more effort than one might like from a starter, and his underdeveloped changeup leads many scouts to think his future lies in the bullpen. While scouts are often right, I think Crawford simply needs some polish and refinement in the minor leagues, but has the talent to make the necessary adjustments. Expected to be taken later in the 1st round, I think Crawford develops into a workhorse mid-rotation starting pitcher in a few years and makes the general manager who selects him quite happy down the road.
Karsten Whitson RHP University of Florida
Drafted 9th overall in the 2010 draft, Whitson spurned the Padres contract overtures to attend college in Gainesville. Three years ago, Whitson flashed a high-90s fastball, a devastating slider, and a promising changeup, which in addition to his sturdy pitchers frame, made him the 2nd high school pitcher selected in the draft behind only Jameson Taillon.
Unfortunately unlike Mark Appel mentioned earlier, Whitson attended college and has watched his draft stock plummet, culminating with Whitson suffering a shoulder injury to his pitching arm prior to this season and forced him to miss this entire season. Whitson’s best and most likely course of action would be to rehabilitate his shoulder and return to Florida for his senior season to rebuild his value.
The Nationals have shown a propensity to draft pitchers with questionable health, namely Lucas Giolito, Nathan Karns, and Matt Purke in recent years – Karsten Whitson could potentially be another example of this strategy. Teams should be tempted to use a 2nd day pick on Whitson in hopes of convincing him to sign and begin his professional career, because if they are patient with him, they could possibly steal a talented pitcher to add to their farm system.
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Thanks for reading! I will be back tomorrow with my 2013 MLB Mock Draft, and I will be Live Blogging all 3 days of the draft, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, so please join me to discuss some future Nationals and everything draft related.