The Official NatsGM 2013 Mock Draft

Draft Day has finally arrived!  After watching hundreds of games in anticipation of the three day extravaganza known as the MLB Draft, I am giddy with excitement to see how it will play out this year.  While Washington does not select until pick #68, the lack of certainty of who will be available when the Nationals choose, along with a lack of a consensus top pick overall, makes this one of the more interesting drafts in recent years. 

In this mock draft, I have tried to look for any possible patterns from a team’s front office in their preferences with their early round picks, combined with a general awareness for where the top prospects are expected to be selected.  I have limited this mock draft to the first 20 selections, along with the Orioles and Nationals top selections, as it becomes far too difficult to project that late in the draft without significant insider knowledge.   

With this in mind, here is the Official 2013 NatsGM Mock Draft, with a bit of analysis after each selection. 

Houston Astros  #1               Mark Appel RHP Stanford University

There are seemingly three players comprising the top tier in this year’s draft (Appel, Kris Bryant, and Jonathan Gray) in some order, and I believe the Astros choose to pair the safest player in the draft with the core of hitters currently in their system.  I would not be surprised however, if the Astros chose UNC third baseman Colin Moran and decided to re-allocate some of their bonus pool to later picks.

Chicago Cubs  #2                Jonathan Gray RHP University of Oklahoma

Thinking the Cubs want to see Appel available rather than Gray, but if not, I think the Cubs choose the potential superior ceiling of Jonathan Gray over the safer hitter Kris Bryant. 

Colorado Rockies  #3                Kris Bryant 3B University of San Diego

While I would expect the Rockies to prefer a pitcher to a hitter, considering their hitter-friendly home park of Coors Field, I expect Colorado to take whoever is left from Appel, Gray, and Bryant.  If somehow Gray or Appel is available, I would think the Rockies would take a pitcher.

Minnesota Twins  #4                Colin Moran 3B University of North Carolina

Minnesota has shown a preference recently for high school players and high-ceiling pitchers, which leads many to place Texas high school pitcher Kohl Stewart in this slot.  However, after many years of struggling to find a permanent solution, I think the Twins take UNC 3B Colin Moran to see a quicker return on their selection at the major league level.

Cleveland Indians  #5                Clint Frazier OF Georgia HS

Hoping to see any of the four players selected above them available, if none are available I believe the Indians take the top high school hitter available in Georgia high school slugger Clint Frazier.

Miami Marlins  #6                D.J. Peterson 3B University of New Mexico

Miami tends to scout the state of Oklahoma particularly well and typically pick players that will sign quickly and near slot value.  If Colin Moran is still available, I think he would be the pick, but if not, I think they go with a safe, collegiate bat who should sign quickly like Peterson or Mississippi State OF Hunter Renfroe. 

Boston Red Sox  #7                Austin Meadows OF Georgia HS

I am tempted to put Nevada pitcher Braden Shipley in this position as they have shown a preference for college players in recent years, but the ceiling and potential of Meadows might be too much for Boston to pass on.

Kansas City Royals  #8                Braden Shipley RHP University of Nevada

Kansas City might run to the podium to make this selection, as they have plenty of young hitters in their organization but have struggled to find starting pitching, as seen by offseason moves to sign Jeremy Guthrie and trade for Ervin Santana.  If the draft plays out in this scenario, I think the Royals would be ecstatic to add this explosive arm to their farm system.

Pittsburgh Pirates  #9                Kohl Stewart RHP Texas HS

Having two picks in the top-14 selections, I think the potential to add the top high school pitcher in the draft might be too tempting for the Pirates.  If Stewart is available, look for the Pirates to take him and take someone a bit easier to sign at pick #14.

Toronto Blue Jays  #10                Reese McGuire Catcher Washington HS

I expect Reese McGuire, the top catching prospect in this draft, to come off the board before this pick, but I have not been able to find the perfect fit.  McGuire has impressive defensive skills which should keep him there as a professional and a solid bat, which could make him an all-star if everything comes together.

New York Mets  #11                Ryne Stanek RHP University of Arkansas

The Mets have built their organization on solid starting pitching, and I expect them to pounce if Stanek is still available at this selection.  Mentioned as a possible top overall selection prior to this season, Stanek represents good value as a potential #2-#3 starter in the future here outside the top-10.

Seattle Mariners  #12                Dominic Smith 1B California HS

Needing power and talented hitters in any form, I think the Mariners would be excited to see California hitter Dominic Smith available here at #12.  If not Smith, I think Seattle would lean hitter rather than pitching.

San Diego Padres  #13                Trey Ball LHP Indiana HS

I expect Ball to be selected prior to this spot, but the way it has played out, leaves him still available.  The Padres have shown they will take high school players, and I think they quickly scoop up the top high school lefty in this draft.

Pittsburgh Pirates  #14                Tim Anderson SS East Central CC

After taking a more difficult to sign player at pick #9, I expect the Pirates to try and save some of their bonus pool dollars with this pick and select the top junior college player in this year’s draft, shortstop Tim Anderson. 

Arizona DBacks  #15                Hunter Renfroe OF Mississippi State University

The definition of gritty and a grinder, Hunter Renfroe fits in perfectly with their new organizational attitude and would slot well for Arizona in the middle of Round 1. 

Philadelphia Phillies  #16                J.P. Crawford SS California HS

The Phillies tend to draft for upside and do not fear taking high school athletes, leading me to give them the top high school shortstop available in, J.P. Crawford, an excellent athlete who should stay at shortstop professionally.

Chicago White Sox  #17                Alex Gonzalez RHP Oral Roberts

Aside from taking high school athlete Courtney Hawkins last year, the White Sox tend to draft college players expected to sign for slot value.  With this in mind, if Gonzalez is still available, rumors have him going higher, I think Chicago would gladly select Gonzalez. 

Los Angeles Dodgers  #18                Sean Manaea LHP Indiana State University

The Dodgers have flexed their financial muscle since their new ownership took over last season, and this could be another opportunity to do just that by selecting Manaea, a projected top-5 pick before the season based on a dominating Cape season last summer.  Manaea had a miserable junior season, culminating in reports of injuries to his pitching hip.  Manaea is the biggest question mark in the draft, but I think he slots nicely here for the Dodgers.

St. Louis Cardinals  #19                Austin Wilson OF Stanford University

Drafted by St. Louis three years ago in the 12th round, I think the Cardinals select Austin Wilson again if he is available and gamble on his enormous power. 

Detroit Tigers  #20                Phil Bickford RHP California HS

The Tigers tend to select the best player available on their board, and are comfortable taking high school players, leading me to believe they take the fastest riser in the draft class, California high school pitcher Phil Bickford.  If Bickford is gone, which seems to be the consensus opinion, maybe they take another high school pitcher like Ian Clarkin or Rob Kaminsky. 

Baltimore Orioles  #22                Ryan Eades RHP Louisiana State University

The Orioles did well to select fellow LSU righty Kevin Gausman in the 1st round last summer, and Eades would be another impressive pitching prospect to add to their farm system.  The Orioles have been mentioned with many high school players, but I expect them to focus on a college player this year such as Eades, Florida pitcher Jonathon Crawford, or Notre Dame third baseman Eric Jagielo. 

Washington Nationals  #68                Bobby Wahl RHP University of Mississippi

It is so difficult to predict how the draft will play out prior to pick #68, but the Nationals have shown a tendency to take the most talented player available in the past few years and have not shied away from injured pitchers.  If Sean Manaea possibly slipped this far, I would be stunned if the Nationals did not scoop him up. 

However, if as expected he is gone, I think the Nationals take the Best Player, with a preference for a college pitcher in an ideal world.  I am projecting hard-throwing Mississippi pitcher Bobby Wahl for the Nationals, but if not him, other potential targets could be Texas RHP Corey Knebel, Oklahoma LHP Dillon Overton, Cal State Fullerton RHP Michael Lorenzen, and Vanderbilt LHP Kevin Ziomek.

****

Thanks for reading and I hope a few of these predictions come true.  I will be Live Blogging all 3 days of the MLB Draft, with a primary focus on the Nationals selections, beginning tonight at 7pm – Please join me as we initiate 40 new Nationals into the organization the next three days. 

2 thoughts on “The Official NatsGM 2013 Mock Draft

  1. Wahl’s draft rankings seem to be all over the board. Law had him #66 but BA had him #36. That’s an entire round differenc; is he a back of the 1st round guy like BA thinks or is he a back of the 2nd round guy like Keith Law thinks?

    If he’s more back of 2nd round, yeah i think he’d make a great pick for the Nats. Clearly we could use some more healthy starters in our system :-) Hell, lets draft him and make him the 5th starter!

  2. Todd,

    Thanks for writing… Depends on your perspective, KLaw (and Wahl’s detractors) see a pitcher with a changeup that lags behind his power fastball and slider, and are concerned his stuff downticked a bit this spring.

    Wahl’s supporters appreciate his thick, sturdy almost ideal pitchers frame and power fastball/slider combo he presently has, and the potential in his changeup. Also, Wahl has a solid track record of success at Ole Miss and in the Cape two years ago.

    Obviously I am a big fan of his and think he develops into a workhorse #4 starter in a relatively short amount of time, with his floor being a power 7th/8th inning reliever.

    That talent level and potential probably “deserves to be” more of a 2nd round pick than a 1st rounder, as most teams prefer a higher ceiling in Round 1. But he would be a nice addition to the Nats farm system if he slips to #68.

Comments are closed.