The most wonderful part of creating NatsGM has been the opportunities I have received to meet new people and talk baseball with these new friends.  With the Nationals season finished and little news coming out of Half Street, I have been fortunate my readers continue to fill my email account nationalsgm@gmail.com with plenty of questions in which to respond.   Some of the more intriguing themes and questions I receive I like to expound upon in a segment I call “Dear NatsGM” (trademark pending).  So without further ado, here is the latest edition of “Dear NatsGM”…

Larry from Alexandria, VA -> “Do you (and fellow Nats fans) want Davey Johnson to return as manager in 2012?”

Did Ian Ziering wish to reprise the role of Steve Sanders on the new version of 90210?!… Of course we as Nationals fans want Davey Johnson to return for 2012 and ideally longer if his health continues to allow him to do so.

I am the first to admit I was a bit skeptical of some of the decisions Davey made his first two or three weeks on duty, but over the last five or six weeks of the season I saw dramatic improvements with certain players (Ian Desmond, Henry Rodriguez, and Ross Detwiler immediately come to mind) along with significant strides in situational hitting and fundamental baseball displayed by the team.   Johnson led the team to a 40-43 record after taking over for Jim Riggleman mid-season, including winning 9 of their last 11 down the stretch.

Davey Johnson has a swagger to him, a nice combination of self-confidence and conviction that began to positively rub off on the team in August and September.  I feel like under previous managers the Nationals played hard and tried to win, but under Davey’s leadership the team’s attitude shifted toward expecting to win and further, wanting to put a whipping on the opposition.  The lack of this attitude, generally and generically referred to as “killer instinct”, was my biggest complaint under Manny Acta and Jim Riggleman and is the most tangible upgrade I can point to with Davey Johnson over his predecessors.

I continue to await the formal announcement that Davey Johnson will be the Nationals manager in 2012.  Thank you for the question!

Kevin from Towson, MD -> “What should the Orioles do to rebuild the franchise?”

Terrific question… I have been writing a column about the Orioles and the state of their franchise for about six weeks, or when Boston was still in 1^st place in the AL East, and thankfully, it is almost finished.

The short answer, I think the individual who replaces Andy MacPhail has their work cut out for them, as the Orioles likely have the least amount of major league talent in the AL East, and probably the least amount of talent in the minor leagues in their division as well.  I would compare to Orioles to the search engine company AltaVista: the Orioles competing against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays right now is similar to the competition AltaVista faces against Google, Yahoo, and Bing in search engines, as in, they are a nice product but a long way from challenging the leaders.

Joking aside, I do see some nice building blocks in Baltimore and I think with some savvy front office maneuvers and healthy dose of luck, they could see some success in the next few years, though 2012 looks like another tough season.  My upcoming piece will expound upon this question, Kevin, but I see reasons for optimism in Baltimore, thank you for writing.

Red Sox Nation -> “What happens with the Boston Red Sox during this off-season?”

Boston sure has had a bad few weeks, huh?  Their collapse occurred more rapidly than an alcohol-fueled meltdown from Frank of MTV’s The Real World San Diego (check out the show, he is amazing bad television).  Unless things take a drastic change of course, it appears that Theo Epstein will be leaving the general manager position in Boston to take over a similar position, with more responsibility, with the Chicago Cubs and early last week, Terry Francona was terminated as manager of the Red Sox.  As seen rather clearly both in the now-infamous Boston Globe piece and the subsequent actions of the team, both Theo Epstein and Terry Francona are being designated as the fall guys in Boston for the team’s collapse down the stretch.
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While things feel lousy in Southie right now, there are PLENTY of reasons for optimism in Beantown: they will start 2012 (barring any major trades) with Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz fronting their starting rotation and Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and Kevin Youkilis leading a fearsome lineup that led major league baseball in runs scored in 2011 with 875.

Sure, there are some rather large questions to answer this winter:  First, who takes over as the manager of the club? Next, do you re-sign David Ortiz and Jonathan Papelbon to act as designated hitter and closer, respectfully, or do the Red Sox look to move on?  How do they round out the #4 and #5 starters?  Tim Wakefield is on his last legs and John Lackey, though likely to rebound in 2012, has a nearly immovable contract and cannot be counted on as anything more than a 5^th starter.  Finally, the Red Sox need production upgrades in right field, as JD Drew was injured and not particularly effective last year, and behind the plate at catcher, as the combination of Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jason Varitek will not continue to cut it offensively.

Clearly this already has and will be a chaotic off-season for the Red Sox with plenty of questions left to be answered.  I am curious what the new general manager Ben Cherington will do to fill out this roster and how he attempts to get this roster a bit younger and more athletic.  As a casual observer, I am looking forward to Boston’s off-season and I still believe the Red Sox have a better than 50-50 chance of making the playoffs next season.  A big thank you goes out to Red Sox Nation for the question.

Joey from Allentown, PA -> “Which contract do you consider worse: Ryan Howard or Alex Rodriguez?”

This is a terrific, sports-talk radio question!  To answer this question, I think there are four major considerations, namely contract length and dollar amount, age and health of the player, offensive skills, and value defensively.  According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts website, Rodriguez, 36, has 6 years and $141 million left on his contract, while Ryan Howard, 32 in November, has his contract extension begin next season for 5 years and $125 million dollars.  Rodriguez struggled with injuries this past season only playing in 99 contests and has battled many nagging injuries, most specifically his hip, the past few seasons, while Howard, traditionally a durable player in his career, enters 2012 with major injury concerns as he ruptured his Achilles tendon on the final out of their season as he ran to first base.  The normal recovery time for an Achilles is 6-9 months, which would take him well into next season.

Offensively, both players have seen their skills erode and statistics decline sharply in the past two seasons.  A-Rod produced a .270/.341/.506 and .276/.362/.461 offensive line the past two seasons against his career average of .302/.386/.567.  Howard in 2010 and 2011 produced a .276/.353/.505 and .253/.346/.488 against his career average of .275/.368/.560.  Especially alarming in both cases is the rapid erosion of their slugging percentages, each dropping close to 100 points this season from their career averages.

Defensively, I would believe the Yankees expect that he can continue to play third base defensively for a maximum of three more seasons at best, at which time he should shift to first base.  However, with the presence of Mark Teixeira already at first base, A-Rod will probably finish his career as a designated hitter.  Howard has declined defensively the past season and a half, and it is a complete guess how anyone will recover from such a devastating injury, especially a large man never known for his athleticism.  Without the designated hitter in the National League, the Phillies have little choice but to continue to play him at first base for the duration of his contract.

I would give Howard the advantage in terms of contract as he has one fewer year and $16 million fewer dollars owed him and a draw on health as Howard recovers from an Achilles injury but A-Rod is 36 years old with a bad hip.  I would give A-Rod the advantage both offensively and defensively going forward, as his subpar numbers last season could be attributed to injuries and he could rebound offensively with a healthy off-season to recover and train, while his ability to play the more demanding position, third base, trumps Howard at first base. I believe that Rodriguez will be the more valuable player in the future, so if forced to choose, I would pay the extra money and hope A-Rod can bounce back with two or three more MVP type seasons, but this is a tough choice between two unappealing contracts.  Outstanding question Joey, thanks for participating.

This “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to Bud Selig and Major League Baseball- their decision to move the playoff games up to 8pm from 8:30pm as in past years was a terrific move, as was scheduling seemingly many more afternoon playoff games as well.  Tremendous fan-friendly decision to allow more people, kids especially, to watch these contests.  Nice work!

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