May 6, 2011
As I watched Nyjer Morgan come to bat for the Brewers the other day, it suddenly struck me that the projected long-term center fielder for the Nationals three months ago, is now a platoon player in Milwaukee, traded for a decent but unexciting prospect and $50,000 late this spring. GM Mike Rizzo stated he wanted to give Nyjer an opportunity during spring training to show he had improved and was ready to be the center fielder of the future for the club. A slow first week sunk his chances as he posted mediocre numbers overall this spring (.241 AVG, .328 OBP, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 9 RUNS, 6 SB, 3 CS).
But the Nationals gave up so quickly on Nyjer that the front office simply must not have believed he was the future in center field well before spring training began. You simply do not see teams trade starting players in spring training, especially for such a relatively minor return. Fair enough, the Nationals have moved forward and Nyjer can thus be considered THE PAST in terms of center field.
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Recently, Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com and other prominent baseball writers have mentioned that “the Nationals are seeking an upgrade over Rick Ankiel for center field”. Besides Ankiel, THE PRESENT options to play center field are limited to Jerry Hairston (with the team already), Roger Bernadina and Corey Brown both with AAA Syracuse. What do we know about these 4 players?
Rick Ankiel -> It seems rather strange to me that the Nationals decided to give Ankiel the starting job, seemingly under the pretense to see if he could handle the job on a full-time basis and then let rumors begin to swirl that one month into the season you are searching for an upgrade. From my perspective, Ankiel has been just about as advertised: incredibly strong arm in the outfield but otherwise mediocre defensively, and offensively he possesses some pop and can hit right handed pitchers reasonably well but struggles mightily verses lefty pitching. Ankiel should be serving as a one year patch in center field as a prospect matriculates in AAA or in a strict platoon where he only faces right-handed pitching, not auditioning as the future at the position.
Jerry Hairston Jr. -> Nice super utility player, but far too old to play every day and is currently being exposed trying to play 3B daily in the absence of Ryan Zimmerman (please get back soon!). He is not the answer in center field.
Roger Bernadina -> Why is Roger Bernadina not being given a chance to sink or swim as the everyday center fielder in 2011? While I am not Roger’s biggest fan, I think he showed enough with the bat (.246/ .307/.384) and with the glove last year that he should be receiving regular at-bats in the outfield this season in Washington, not AAA Syracuse. The sheer fact that Roger is playing in Syracuse tells me that the Nationals do not see him as a future starter, but more in the role of outfield bench player.
Corey Brown -> Brown was impressive in AA in 2010, posting a .320/.415/.502 in 386 plate appearances after being demoted from AAA. Brown has great speed and quality defensive skills, but has struggled with strikeouts in his career. Brown has started slowly in his second attempt at AAA, posting .187/.274/.267 thru 24 games. Brown profiles as a bench outfielder because of his strikeout totals and is likely not the answer in center going forward.
So what can we conclude? That the present options the Nationals have are not long-term solutions.
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So what should the Nationals and GM Mike Rizzo do about THE FUTURE in center field?
Unfortunately this upcoming draft is unlikely to provide the future. The top two prospects are currently LSU’s Mikie Mahtook and South Carolina’s Jackie Bradley Jr. and both come with question marks. Scouts have long questioned if either would be a major league quality defender in center field and unfortunately, if they do not play center field, they would not profile offensively as a corner outfielder. Mahtook is currently projected to be drafted among picks #11-#20 to a team convinced he stays in center field. Bradley Jr. recently came down with an injury and was sliding down draft boards because long-term questions about his ultimate position.
So if the draft cannot provide the solution, the answer must be either a minor league prospect or a current major leaguer. I think I have solved the problem: What if I told you that I knew of a 25 year old (26 in September) with a career batting line of .263/.303/.411 in more than 750 at-bats with tremendous range and a powerful throwing arm. What if I also told you he was under team control through 2015 and available cheap… would you be interested? Would the Nationals be interested? Darn right they would! The answer to the organization’s biggest long-term question is right under their nose: Ian Desmond.
Desmond possesses all the skills to be an outstanding defensive center fielder, but his difficulty fielding grounders and throwing rapidly to first causes him to make too many errors to be an everyday shortstop in the major leagues. In a strange way, it is a compliment to the rest of the shortstops in baseball: they have such soft hands and wonderful hand-eye coordination that when it is not elite, perhaps as is the case with Desmond, it becomes obvious. But Desmond’s ability to catch, throw, and range to get the baseball are unquestioned, the most important qualities for any center fielder.
Moving Desmond to center field solves that difficult riddle and allows you to move Danny Espinosa back to his more natural position at shortstop. Finding a long-term solution at second base is far easier than filling a long-term solution in center field, not to mention this makes the team better defensively at two key positions up the middle. I think if Desmond does not show strong improvement defensively and cut down on his error totals by the all-star break, you will begin to hear more discussions about moving Desmond from shortstop. By no means am I rooting against said improvement, but I think the best thing for the National’s future is Ian Desmond patrolling center field between Jayson Werth in left field and Bryce Harper in right field, with Danny Espinosa the starting shortstop.
Expect to hear more about Desmond’s position switch in the upcoming weeks, and maybe that’s not such a bad thing. The Future in center field should be Ian Desmond.
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