May 8, 2011
“Name Withheld” from Gaithersburg, MD -> “Is adding another team for the playoffs a good idea for baseball?
Tough question… I must admit that I was against expanding the playoffs when they did it in 1994, as I am always a person that wants the playoffs to reward excellence. To take a cheap shot, I feel like the biggest flaw with both the NBA and NHL is the amount of teams that make the playoffs, thus diluting their regular season product and hindering interest. The Men’s NCAA basketball tournament is slowly reaching that same point as well, but I digress.
That said, I believe the wild card to be the single best decision that Commissioner Bud Selig has made in his career (selfishly I might say returning baseball to DC) as it has expanded interest in the game and allowed middle and small market teams a greater chance to compete. I would support one final expansion, to 5 playoff teams per league, with the 3 division winners and 2 wild cards, as I believe it would keep fans interested in baseball, especially in September when football starts, and continue to give small market teams a greater chance to make the postseason .
The trouble I have with this expansion is in the details: How would the wild card “playoff” go? Tom Boswell mentioned this as well in his chat (Washington Post Sports 4/25/11) a few weeks ago and I think he nailed it. Do the wild card teams play a one-game “winner take all” playoff or a three game series? One game seems rather abrupt after playing 162 to reach the playoffs, yet a three game series places the division winners at a disadvantage of sitting around for close to a week. Baseball is the ultimate game of routine and a lengthy break would not reward the division winners for their excellence during the regular season. Also, what happens if perhaps a tie record occurs between “2nd wild card teams”? That would likely force a one-game playoff, further delaying the time between games for the division champions. While I believe these are problems that can be ultimately resolved, until they are, I hesitate to fully endorse expanding the baseball playoffs.
Josh from Washington D.C. -> “When is a reasonable expectation for the Nats to make the playoffs?”
Great question Josh, thanks for writing. I get this question in different forms almost daily. As I wrote back in February, I thought the Nationals would win about 75 games in 2011. While the Nationals have played better than that so far, I think with the long-term injury to Zimmerman and some natural regression with the pitching staff, I think 75 wins is still a good guess.
2012 should produce more victories with the continued development of the young players (Espinosa, Desmond, Zimmermann, Storen, etc.) as well as Stephen Strasburg’s return, plus the potential additions of Derek Norris and Bryce Harper in the 2nd half of the season. I think Washington should expect the Nationals to play .500 baseball next season and we should begin to hear baseball writers talking about the National’s 2013 breakout campaign.
But 2013 is the reasonable expectation when fans and the Nationals should expect to compete for the playoffs and they should contend for most of the rest of the decade. It is almost impossible to project that far out, but their lineup could look like this:
“Hypothetical 2013 Lineup”
2B- “Free Agent/ Prospect”
LF- Jayson Werth
RF- Bryce Harper
3B- Ryan Zimmerman
1B- “Free Agent”
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C- W. Ramos /Derek Norris
CF- Ian Desmond
SP- Stephen Strasburg
That’s a playoff team…. Trust me, 2013 will be here before we know it. Climb aboard before the bandwagon gets full.
Warren by email -> “Just about one month from June’s Major League Baseball draft, do you have any predictions for the Nats 1st round selections?”
Good question! I will continue to talk more about the draft in the coming weeks. Also, I will be live blogging the first two days of the MLB draft on June 6th and 7th, so I hope you join me for that.
As I have mentioned a few times on this site, the Nationals will select #6, #23, and #34 in the first round next month. GM Mike Rizzo has a reputation of drafting college players over high school players, and drafting pitching and up the middle bats early.
At #6, the Nationals are going to have a nice selection of players to choose from: I expect UCLA RHP Gerrit Cole and Rice 3B Anthony Rendon to go #1 and #2, in some order. From there, the next four picks (#3-#6) should come from the group of HS OF Bubba Starling, HS RHP Dylan Bundy, UVA LHP Danny Hultzen, Georgia Tech LHP Jed Bradley, UCLA RHP Trevor Bauer, Vanderbilt RHP Sonny Gray, and Texas RHP Taylor Jungmann.
GM Mike Rizzo likes to stockpile left-handed pitching (who doesn’t) and Hultzen and Bradley are likely the top two pitchers to choose from. I expect Hultzen to go between picks 3-5, likely #3 to Arizona, which would leave Jed Bradley for the Nationals. My guess on 5/7/11… Georgia Tech LHP Jed Bradley
At #23, I still expect the Nationals to be looking for college starting pitching, both because it is the strength of this draft and the preference of the Nationals. Likely there will be some nice choices still left on the board such as: Kentucky RHP Alex Meyer, Coastal Carolina RHP Anthony Meo, Oregon LHP Tyler Anderson, TCU LHP Matt Purke, and Connecticut RHP Matt Barnes. I think Meyer would be the pick if available, but I expect he will improve his stock between now and the draft. My guess on 5/7/11… Oregon LHP Tyler Anderson
At #34, if the Nationals go with two college pitchers at #6 and #23, I would expect the club to look at a hitter, all things being equal. Some players projected to go in this area include: North Carolina SS Levi Michael, Utah 1B CJ Cron, Vanderbilt 3B Jason Esposito and Miami-Dade CF Brian Goodwin. Of that group, my favorite is Brian Goodwin, who I was fortunate enough to watch extensively last summer on Cape Cod with the Harwich Mariners. Goodwin was the 3rd best prospect I saw on Cape Cod last summer, behind only Jed Bradley (mentioned earlier) and Arizona St. SS Deven Marrero, projected to be a top ten selection in 2012. Goodwin has the athleticism and skills to stay in center field, and while raw, could be a special talent in a few years. My guess on 5/7/11… Miami-Dade CF Brian Goodwin
* A Big Happy Mother’s Day “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to my Mom… Love you and thank you for always being there for me. Also I want to wish a Happy Mother’s Day to all Moms everywhere.
Thanks again for all the great questions, please keep them coming. If I use one of your questions in a future column, you will win a NatsGM T-shirt. Please follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, find me on Facebook at NatsGM, and email me at NationalsGM@gmail.com