Prospect Talk with Adam McInturff from Baseball Prospectus

Posted on June 20, 2016 by Ryan Sullivan

Similarly to my recent piece “Quoting The Experts”, last week I reached out to Baseball Prospectus’s prospect team member Adam McInturff to get his general thoughts on the MLB Draft and the top Nationals selections. During our conversations, Adam was sending me these wonderful scouting notes, which I thought were too good to keep for myself. So with his permission, here are some of Adam’s thoughts on recent Nationals draft picks Carter Kieboom, Dane Dunning and Nick Banks.

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Carter Kieboom

“The Nationals selected Kieboom with the 28th pick, the first of their back-to-back selections in 2016. A lean, tapered 6-foot-2 and 180-some pounds, there’s no doubt he will add strength to his frame as his body matures. He’s currently at shortstop, and while he has good hands defensively, he’ll probably outgrow the position–hopefully growing into more power and a true third base profile. One of the purest swings of any prep hitter in this class, Kieboom stays inside the ball well with a fluid, quick path to the ball. He shoots line drives all over the field, showing the backspin to allow projection on his home run power. If he adds strength and continues to develop offensively, Kieboom’s ceiling looks like that of a regular left-side infielder.”

Dane Dunning

“Dunning was another college arm who moved up boards with strong late-season showings, throwing well both in the SEC Tournament and the Gainesville regional the following week. The Gators have an embarrassment of riches on the mound, so much so that Dunning—a potential first-day pick—didn’t even crack their weekend rotation, stuck behind early picks A.J. Puk, Logan Shore, and Alex Faedo (2017 eligible). As such, Dunning was relegated mostly to bullpen work as a junior in 2016, where he’s been a multi-inning super reliever for Florida. His strikeout and walk rates both improved in shorter stints—where he showed his stuff is enough to overwhelm hitters working out of the bullpen—but has the tools to transition back into a starting pitcher’s development path once he signs professionally.

A wiry 6-foot-3, 205 pounds, with long arms and a tapered lower-half, Dunning shows a consistently above-average sinker and slider. His fastball is an extremely heavy pitch, with turbo sink, tunneling down in the zone to his arm-side. His slider flashes solid-average tilt in the 82-84 range. His delivery finishes fairly loosely, and on-line, and he’s able to keep both offerings around the zone. Dunning could be a sleeper in this draft class due to not pitching in the highly-scrutinized Gators rotation, with the best-case ceiling of a middle-rotation starter, possessing the sinker to be a groundball machine. If the move to the bullpen ultimately winds up fitting him better down the road, he demonstrated this season that both his fastball and slider are quality pitches.”

Nick Banks

Banks had a lot of buzz coming off the Cape, I actually had a lower role 50 and a Chris Coghlan comparison on him coming out of the summer. He dinged his wrist right before his JR year started and it really slowed up his bat to start the year. As a result, Banks wasn’t the type of guy with plus statistical performance who gets those points in draft rooms, but he did pick it up by season’s end. More of a hitter than a power guy, but I think it’s the ceiling of a heady 4th outfielder for a good team–maybe at best a starter on a corner for a bad team–and he’s going to out-perform his round.

Neither of them have light-the-world-on-fire tools, but it will be fun if we get to see Banks and Andrew Stevenson in the same outfield. Maybe at Harrisburg or Syracuse. They’re both kind of that ‘good little player’ mold the Nationals like from college (Max Schrock).”

Special thanks to Adam for generously sharing his thoughts: Please follow him on Twitter @WAdam_McInturff and read his work at Baseball Prospectus.

Armchair Evaluation – Washington Nationals 1st Round Pick Dane Dunning

Posted on June 17, 2016 by Ryan Sullivan

Mere days after being selected in the 1^st round, 29^th overall, by the Washington Nationals, University of Florida right-handed pitcher Dane Dunning found himself on the mound in a deciding game against Florida State, with the winner going to Omaha and the College World Series. Eager to see what type of talent the Nationals added to their organization, I decided to do an Armchair Evaluation of Dunning’s recent outing on June 13th.

Due to the depth of the Florida pitching staff, the 21-year-old Dunning has spent most of his 3 years in Gainesville starting for the Gators during the midweek and pitching in relief on the weekend. However, he would serve as the Friday starter for approximately 90% of college teams and would pitch in the weekend rotation for every other team besides the loaded Florida Gators. Prior to this season he struggled with his command and control of the strike zone, but made major strides as a junior, posting 85 strikeouts against only 12 walks in 75 innings pitched this season.

Against a stout Florida State lineup, Dunning entered the game in the 4^th inning in relief of A.J. Puk and pitched 4.1 innings, allowing 0 runs on 4 hits and 0 walks against 5 strikeouts. Dunning needed 67 pitches to get these 13 outs (47 strikes & 20 balls), getting 5 fly outs and 3 ground outs.

There comes a time when you need to take the advice of your doctor, or can go for medication like discover content cialis samples, cialis etc. The experts are of an opinion that it should be taken and vardenafil vs viagra should promptly consult health physician. It’s time to free cialis sample recover the spice of your love life. Edegra has been made up of sildenafil Citrate, the most canada viagra cialis significant cum common ingredient used in manufacturing Tadalista is Tadalafil. The 6-3 205lbs Dunning has an ideal pitcher’s frame with some projection remaining, especially in his lower half. He features a semi-windup with a high leg kick, giving him excellent momentum and extension toward home plate. Dunning throws from a three-quarters release point and has noticeable arm speed. He has a relatively clean, simple motion with excellent balance and repeats the delivery well.

In this appearance Dunning showed an impressive 3-pitch arsenal, featuring a 91-95mph fastball (according to the television radar gun) with extreme movement to his arm-side. In fact, several times I misidentified his fastball as a changeup because of the extreme movement and sinking action. Additionally, Dunning showed an impressive 78-84mph slider with 12-6 movement, which induced several swings-and-misses. Finally he threw two mid-80s changeups with some sinking movement resembling his fastball, and shows promise due to the 10+mph separation. Dunning shows average or better command and control of the strike zone, along with an aggressive attitude toward attacking hitters. Overall, I would put a “60” or better on the fastball, particularly due to the movement, a “50/55” on the slider and an “Incomplete/45” on the changeup.

After watching this appearance by Dane Dunning, I find myself rather fired up that the Nationals were able to select someone of his talent at pick #29. He pitches extremely well off his fastball, an easy plus offering, and his slider was more impressive in this outing than it was by reputation pre-draft. He will need to refine both his off-speed pitches if he wants to be a starter, but the potential exists for Dunning to have a plus fastball and two average to above-average off-speed pitches.

Assuming he stays healthy and can strengthen his arm for the rigors of pitching 180+ innings per season, Dunning projects as a strong #3/#4 starter, with the floor of a late-inning reliever. Considering his high floor and reasonably high ceiling, Dunning was an astute pick by the Nationals at the end of Round 1.

Quoting The Experts – Washington Nationals 1st Round Pick Carter Kieboom

Posted on June 15, 2016 by Ryan Sullivan

Last week with their first of two 1^st round selections, the Washington Nationals picked Georgia high school hitter Carter Kieboom, who according to reports quickly agreed to terms on a contract. After the pick was announced, I reached out to several smart baseball guys to ask their opinion on Kieboom and what type of prospect the Nationals have added to their organization. Fortunately a few were willing to share their thoughts on Carter Kieboom.

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“I thought Carter Kieboom was the most impressive hitter I saw at the Under Armour Game last summer and one of the best high school bats available in the draft. I think he’ll grow into some more power too, and even if he doesn’t stick at shortstop I think he’ll profile nicely at third base.” – Jim Callis, MLB.com & MLBPipeline.com

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Swing GIF – http://gifimgs.com/img/0616/576167fed77c3448596866/

“Kieboom is a solid bat speed and approach guy. He has quality hand eye coordination which helps him barrel quality stuff regularly. Kieboom has a quiet setup but an explosive swing and added strength should help him project for some power. His actions and reactions defensively are solid and his range should keep him in the infield at third base. One of the better prep bats for me in this class.” – C.J. Wittmann Jr., 2080Baseball.com

Special thank you to Jim, Ryan and C.J. for their terrific contributions to this piece!

Armchair Evaluation – Washington Nationals 3rd Round Pick Jesus Luzardo

Posted on June 14, 2016 by Ryan Sullivan

Last Friday afternoon on Day 2 of the 2016 MLB Draft, the Washington Nationals selected Florida high school left-handed pitcher Jesus Luzardo as their 3^rd round pick. This was an intriguing pick, not only because it was #94 overall, but because Luzardo was considered a 1^st round talent before undergoing Tommy John surgery in March.

Upon further research, I learned Luzardo participated in the Perfect Game All-America Classic game last summer played at Wrigley Field in Chicago. Since I have the event saved on the DVR in THE NatsGM Studios, I decided to re-watch the game to evaluate his strengths and weaknesses. The obvious caveats of this game occurring 10 months ago and pre-surgery aside, I thought it might be intriguing to put Jesus Luzardo through my infamous, Armchair Evaluation.

The now 18-year-old Luzardo entered the game in the top of the 4^th inning and needed only 17 pitches to retire the side in order. He threw 10 strikes against 7 balls, inducing two meager grounders to first base and striking out Nationals’ 1^st round pick Carter Kieboom looking for the third out.

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In this one inning outing Luzardo flashed his 4-pitch arsenal, featuring a 91-93mph fastball with cutting movement, an upper-70s slider he was struggling to command and a low-70s curveball, plus an above-average 79-81mph changeup with excellent fading action. He located his fastball well, especially up-and-in to righties, inducing two feeble ground ball outs. The changeup was truly impressive for a high school pitcher, as he replicated his arm speed particularly well and could throw it for strikes. One inning is difficult to judge a pitcher’s command and control, but Luzardo attacked hitters with a plan, showing maturity beyond his years. If forced to judge, I would put a “55” on his fastball, no grade on the breaking pitches (he threw three and obviously lacked any feel) and a “55/60” on his changeup.

While watching a one inning appearance in an All-Star game on television is not the best way to evaluate a player, this outing did give a nice insight into the overall prospect profile of Jesus Luzardo. He has a polished delivery and a solid 4-pitch arsenal, with a mature approach toward attacking opposing hitters. He has an above-average fastball and changeup, along with the obvious ability to spin a breaking ball. He needs experience on the mound to refine his breaking pitches and to repeat his delivery, but the overall “starter kit” is quite impressive.

The Nationals are taking a gamble selecting an injured high school pitcher with a top-100 pick, but the reward could be a #3/#4 starting pitcher down the road if he can properly rehabilitate his arm. In addition, there is no question he would not have been available in Round 3 if he was healthy at draft time, making this a shrewd gamble by the Washington Nationals.