After many days of speculation, finally on Thursday evening the Washington Nationals agreed to terms on a 3-year $15 million dollar contract with former San Diego RHP Shawn Kelley. According to media reports Kelley will earn $4 million next season and $5.5 million in 2017 & 2018.
The 31-year-old Kelley (32 in April) pitched for San Diego last season and provided the Padres with a 2.45 ERA, 2.57 FIP and 63 strikeouts against only 15 walks in 51.1 innings pitched. The Padres acquired him from the Yankees last winter in a small swap for a minor league pitcher, as his superficial numbers in the Bronx (4.46 ERA in 105 innings) did not match up with his 3.33 FIP and 11.8 K/9 rates. Over the course of his 7-year career, Kelley owns a 3.67 ERA, 10.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9 rates in 284.1 innings pitched, all working in relief.
Kelley does three of the four most important things for any reliever particularly well – he strikes out hitters, limits walks and generally keeps the ball in the park. Unfortunately he does not generate a ton of the 4th, namely ground outs, although he did see this jump to 42.7% in 2015. He attacks hitters with the typical reliever repertoire of a 4-seam fastball in the low-90s and a hard breaking 83-84mph slider. Somewhat unusually Kelley throws more sliders than he does fastballs, yet does not struggle with a platoon-split against left-handed hitters, holding them to a career .666 OPS verses a .711 OPS against righties.
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The Washington Nationals will have a tremendous amount of turnover in their middle relief corps next season, as pitchers David Carpenter, Craig Stammen, and Matt Thornton are probable to depart as free agents. This leaves Kelley to pitch meaningful innings for Washington in the 7th and 8th, helping bridge the gap to the team’s closer, whomever that might be. There is some risk associated with Kelley’s health, as he has undergone two Tommy John surgeries in the past, which likely kept his salary demands depressed compared to others in the midst of the skyrocketing reliever salaries this winter.
Shawn Kelley might not be a major name throughout baseball or well-known to non-diehard fans, but Washington just signed an excellent reliever to bolster their relief corps. If the team uses him with caution to help his chances of staying healthy and keeps him in middle relief, Kelley should be one of the best 7th inning set-up men in baseball. Even acknowledging the injury-risks associated with him, Kelley signing with Washington is one of the best value signings thus far this offseason.
NatsGM Grade -> Solid B