As a self-proclaimed baseball critic, labeling the Best and Worst Free Agent Signings made in major league baseball each winter is one of my favorite columns to write annually. Now that the college kids are invading South Padre Island and various other spring break haunts, I thought this would be an appropriate time to examine this winter’s free agent market to find my favorite, and least-favorite, values signed this winter.
In general, this article has undergone a theme shift since I first wrote it four years ago – originally I was impressed with the reticence general managers had shown investing elite dollars in league-average quality talent. However, this year saw a paradigm shift, as organizations have done a better job of locking up their best players early in their career, causing a severe lack of supply of starting-caliber players compared to the demand throughout baseball.
Quite honestly, I found it difficult to find many free agent contracts I thought would provide positive value, and the overwhelming majority I would feel uncomfortable signing if I was a general manager. Nonetheless, these are my selections for the Best and Worst Free Agent Contracts signed this winter.
Best
1) James Shields 4-years $75 million with San Diego
Prior to the start of the Hot Stove, most pundits assumed Shields would begin negotiations at 6-years and $125+ million dollars and eventually “settle” for a 5-year pact flirting near $100 million to one of the teams that lost out on Max Scherzer or Jon Lester. Instead a poor showing in the playoffs seemed to cool his market, allowing the Padres to swoop in late in the offseason and secure his services for a reasonable 4-years and less than $20 million annually.
Sure, that is a substantial amount of money, but Shields has a career 3.77 FIP (3.61 xFIP) and has thrown 200+ innings eight consecutive seasons. Perhaps now at 33-years-old he is no longer a #1/#2 type starter, but he is a durable #2/#3 veteran who should stabilize the Padres talented but injury-plagued starting rotation. Shields will be pitching in a favorable home park and shifts to the National League, which makes him a solid bet to continue his stellar track record of performance. Certainly there is risk involved giving $75 million to a free agent pitcher, but Shields is one of the best, most durable arms to reach the market in years and this is a rare nice value for a top-quality starter.
2) Norichika Aoki 1-year $4 million with a club option with San Francisco
No question this signing is below market-rate because Aoki wanted to play in San Francisco, but he is an outstanding fit for the Giants, as he should bat atop the lineup and play a solid defensive left field. Aoki is a consistent 2.0-2.5 WAR player being paid like a reserve outfielder, making this the best risk verses reward contract given out all winter.
3) J.J. Hardy 3-years $40 million with Baltimore
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Although Hardy was technically an extension signed with Baltimore in October, this was one of the better contracts all offseason, as he would have been one of the most coveted free agents on the market. As the top shortstop available this winter, he would likely have had his choice between the Yankees, Dodgers, and Blue Jays, amongst other suitors. That the Orioles were able to sign him for “only” 3-years and for $13.3 million per season, a fair contract for a consistently 3 WAR player, makes this one of the better values all offseason.
Honorable Mention: Russell Martin 5-years $82 million with Toronto, Jason Hammel 2-years $20 million with the Chicago Cubs, A.J. Burnett 1-year $8.5 million with Pittsburgh, Hanley Ramirez 4-years $88 million with Boston, Melky Cabrera 3-years $42 million with Chicago White Sox, Yasmany Tomas 6-years $68 million with Arizona
Worst
1) Nelson Cruz 4-years $58 million with Seattle
This one is almost too easy – Cruz is a one-dimensional slugger at 34-years-old coming off a career year who now signs a 4-year deal for huge dollars. This contract screams bust potential. Furthermore, there were plenty of other cheaper options available if Seattle insisted on a limited defensively, right-handed hitter with power, such as Billy Butler (3-yrs $30mm), Michael Cuddyer (2-yrs $21mm), or Mike Morse (2-yrs $16mm).
2) Nick Markakis 4-years $44 million with Atlanta
Markakis is a solid league-average corner outfielder and a quality clubhouse presence, according to all media reports, so he was destined to be a sought after free agent this offseason. The reason this signing appears on this list is the Markakis addition goes against every other move for Atlanta this winter, who traded away Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, and Evan Gattis while beginning a significant rebuild for the future. These moves make the Markakis signing truly puzzling, as the Braves paid a hefty price to acquire his post-prime seasons while the organization hopes to compete toward the end of this contract.
3) Brett Anderson 1-year $10 million with Los Angeles Dodgers
Anderson is a talented pitcher who cannot stay healthy, as his career 3.73 ERA, 3.51 FIP, and 494 innings pitched in 7 major league seasons indicates. No question the Dodgers seemingly have money to burn, but signing Anderson for such a large amount when comparable or better pitchers such as A.J. Burnett (1-yr $8.5mm), Justin Masterson (1-yr $9.5mm) and Kris Medlen (2-yrs $8.5mm) signed for less money makes this a poor decision and a clear overpay in a vacuum.
Honorable Mention: Zach Duke 3-years $15 million with Chicago White Sox, Billy Butler 3-years $30 million with Oakland, Max Scherzer 7-years $210 million with Washington, Torii Hunter 1-year $10.5 million with Minnesota