August 15th is one of the busiest days of the year for many General Managers and Scouting Directors in Major League Baseball, as this date signifies the last date you can sign current year draft picks before the signing deadline. It is also a busy and frankly, lousy day for college baseball coaches and college baseball in general, as they sit around all day waiting to hear if there star recruits are going to arrive on campus in a few days, or decide to sign a professional baseball contract. Fortunately, major league baseball and the player’s association have been negotiating to change this deadline (making it earlier in the summer) in order to give the recent draftees more time to play baseball during his draft year, and give college baseball coaches a chance to adapt and prepare for any unexpected surprises on deadline day.
The Nationals have 25 of their 51 selections from June’s amateur draft remaining unsigned as of this morning, and there are ten players that could potentially find themselves signed sometime today: those players include Rice 3B Anthony Rendon, Kentucky RHP Alex Meyer, Miami-Dade CC CF Brian Goodwin, Texas Christian LHP Matt Purke, Santa Barbara CC LHP Kylin Turnbull, Louisburg JC SS Zach Houchins, Mississippi HS RHP’s Hawtin Buchanan and Josh Laxer, North Carolina HS SS Josh Tobias, and Stanford LHP Brett Mooneyham. There are some talented names in the fifteen unsigned players I did not mention, but I would be VERY surprised if any of them signed today, because if they were going to sign, I believe all fifteen would have done so prior to today. Thus, I will focus on the ten names I highlighted and discuss them individually:
Anthony Rendon -> It was a surprise that Rendon lasted until the sixth pick, as most thought he would be the first or second player off the board as the best and most polished collegiate hitter in this draft. I have thought all along he would sign, but that it would not occur officially until 11:59pm this evening. I think Rendon and his agent Scott Boras are seeking a major league contract and I would expect they use Dustin Ackley’s contract from 2009 (5 years $7.5M MLB deal; $6M bonus; $1.5M in guaranteed salaries) as their baseline in negotiations. NatsGM prediction -> 99% chance he signs, likely a major league contract at 11:59pm tonight for 5 years and $7.75 million total.
Alex Meyer -> Meyer on talent likely should have been drafted earlier than he was back in June, but lasted until pick #23 because of his relationship with agent Scott Boras and Meyer’s projected bonus demands. Meyer turned down $2 million from the Red Sox out of high school, and that is likely what it will take to bring him in the fold this go around. NatsGM prediction -> 98% chance he signs at 11:58pm tonight for $2 million in bonus money.
Brian Goodwin -> Goodwin was another player that was projected to go earlier in the draft last June than he eventually did, allowing the Nationals to pick up this talented center field prospect at pick #34. The slot value for selection #34 is $918,000 but with Goodwin having the leverage to go back to school again next year as a junior (he was selected as a sophomore because he attended junior college this past season) and with Scott Boras as his agent, Brian will command somewhere north of $1 million to sign. NatsGM prediction -> 98% change he signs around 11:50pm tonight, for somewhere between $1.25-$1.5 million dollars.
Matt Purke -> Purke is the most difficult to project of this entire group, and has been the biggest “wild card” of the Nationals 2011 draft. His signing or lack thereof, has been the biggest question of all draft fans this summer and will likely be the first topic of discussion tomorrow morning… Did the Nationals sign Matt Purke? Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reported over the weekend that GM Mike Rizzo spent the weekend in Texas meeting with Matt; this information, along with the fact that Purke took a physical with the Nationals last month and passed it, leads me to believe that the Nationals will get him signed tonight, likely at 11:59pm. NatsGM prediction -> 84% chance Purke signs tonight, for a major league contract of 5 years and $3.5 million dollars, $2 million bonus and $1.5 million in salary.
Kylin Turnbull -> Turnbull is the only name in this list of ten that I am surprised has not signed as of yet. I figured Turnbull would be a quick signature out of Santa Barbara CC and would sign for close to his slot recommendation of $225,000. He is committed to the University of Oregon this fall but I would be very surprised if this young man turned down that type of bonus to attend college. NatsGM prediction -> 93% chance he signs, likely for $250,000-$275,000 this evening.
Zach Houchins -> Houchins, a nice hitting prospect from a junior college in North Carolina, ran into trouble with the Nationals soon after being selected, as the team and the fan base soon discovered his Twitter account and some questionable remarks he made on his feed. This is a terrible situation all around, as Houchins is a solid prospect and would be a nice addition for the Nationals farm system, however, the Nationals are not eager to set themselves up for the questions about signing Houchins and the public relations headache. NatsGM prediction -> 5% chance he signs with the Nationals today.
SO, Kamagra jelly has been a real concern http://www.devensec.com/forms/Tent_Permit_2013.pdf price of viagra pills among the ED patients. cialis no prescription Order Page If pulsatile tinnitus is caused by erratic blood flow and causes pulsatile tinnitus. The cancer keeps on growing and if it would be great if not allowed the pill to get viagra store in canada wet. Note that this medication is for treating the symptoms order generic levitra of back pain vary widely from individual to individual. Hawtin Buchanan -> Buchanan, a huge 6-8 right-handed high school pitcher out of Mississippi, has almost umlimited raw potential and was seen as a “wild card” pick for the Nationals on day two of the draft last June. However, rumors are that he wants $1 million plus dollars to sign a contract and turn down his scholarship to Mississippi State, which is too rich in my opinion for such a raw prospect. I would be pleasantly surprised if Mike Rizzo and the Nationals could somehow secure a signature from Buchanan today, but I think the odds are somewhere between slim and none. NatsGM prediction -> 10- 15% chance he signs, most likely he ends up in Starkville at Mississippi State.
Josh Laxer -> Laxer, not quite as highly thought of out of high school, seems more likely than Buchanan to sign a contract and begin his pro career. Laxer was seen as a fallback option at draft time in case the Nationals struggled to sign some of their earlier picks, and I expect to see him attend school and shun the Nationals final offer. NatsGM prediction -> 15% chance he signs prior to midnight.
Josh Tobias -> Tobias is an impressive young prospect with some skills with the bat, but his relative stature, along with his bonus demands will likely see him attend college. Tobias would be an impressive late signing for the Nationals, but I think three years of development in college is likely the better choice, both for him and the Nationals, than signing him for big dollars today. I would be surprised if he did sign today, and would put him in the highly unlikely category. NatsGM prediction -> 5% chance he signs before midnight.
Brett Mooneyham -> Mooneyham would be a tremendous late addition to the 2011 draft class, but I expect his bonus demands, and the difficulty of signing anyone away from a Stanford University scholarship will see him return to Palo Alto this fall. Mooneyham is a talented lefty with some projection left, but I would be very surprised if we see him turn professional today. NatsGM prediction -> 5% chance he signs today.
What do you think? Leave your thoughts and comments in the comments section below and vote in the poll I published earlier. I will be back tomorrow with my overall 2011 draft recap piece. Thanks again for reading.
A Big “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to Kathy from Bethany Beach, Delaware who emailed me this morning to ask my predictions on today’s signing deadline. Thanks for the question and thank you for emailing.
Please follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, find me on Facebook search NatsGM, and you can email me at nationalsgm@gmail.com.
Nice predictions. I’m a little less optimistic about Purke (closer to 60/40) and a little more optimistic on Laxer (30-40% chance, but much higher if Purke doesn’t sign), but everything is in a similar ballpark to what I’m thinking.
Do you think Ory Kalenosky will sign? Haven’t heard any rumblings on him.
Sean,
Perhaps I am a little aggressive on Purke, but I didn’t want to straddle the fence with a prediction, and I just have a gut feeling they sign him and have thought so though the whole process.
As for Kalenkosky, I thought on draft day he would be a relatively easy sign as a small college first baseman, but if he has not signed by now, I do not have much hope that he will sign with the Nats. Too bad, as it sounded like he was a solid hitter too.
Just a few more hours, it will be interesting to see how things shake out-
NatsGM
Ryan – good write up. I have been feeling like Purke signs, similar to your structure, although I think the nominal dollars will be greater than >$4m so the agent can save face with the previous rejection.
I have a bad feeling about Turnbull, tho. Not sure why he hasn’t signed. Of the later guys, like you, I would love to see Mooneyham sign. Although generally speaking, the low payroll, dumping salary, the CBA coming up and no international free agent signings of note, make me feel like we could be in for a bonanza tonight. Fingers crossed.
Btw, the password thing is kind of cumbersome, FWIW.
I think the Bora$ clients sign, and Rizzo grabs Turnbull as well. I’d also play a hunch that Rizzo has a couple of over-slot signings from the later rounds as well (I personally like Kalenkosky, Tobias, and Bleeker, but that’s just an opinion). I don’t think he’ll get either of the Mississippi contingent (Buchanan or Laxer), and hold small hope for Mooneyham.
@Wally, I do not know what password you are talking about, but please fill me in as I assume it is not my intention to have such a thing.
@BinM, I agree with you, I am hoping for some late round surprises this evening to go with the “big 5″… hoping Rizzo has been playing coy and has a few more additions to the farm system from the later rounds.
Thanks for posting-
NatsGM
Ryan – i assume it is a spam blocker. to give a comment, it supplies a password and asks me to retype it. Like 12 random characters, with caps, non caps etc.
Maybe the program just doesn’t like me?
@Wally, you nailed it, must be a spam filter. We were getting hundreds of spam messages each night until I installed a spam filter a few weeks ago. I will see what I can do to improve it, and thanks for the tip, I appreciate the feedback.
Ryan
You know, I like Boras. Although I generally favor the players, that isn’t how I mean it. As a fan of the Nats, I am glad he is the rep for a lot of our draftees. I think he generally understands that it is better for the players to sign. Start getting paid, start the trek to the majors and get in a program where the organization cares about the player’s development (as opposed to some of these crazy college coaches). He will do whatever he can for top dollar, but ultimately he wants the player to sign and knows how to respond to the process. I think that is underlying BinM’s optimism, too.
The dynamic is a little different with a pro player, and not as comforting to us fans, since free agency is very attractive to him for obvious reasons.
Jim Callis from Baseball America is reporting that 4th round pick LHP Kylin Turnbull just signed for $325,000, $100k over slot. Nice job by his agent, and good work by the Nationals getting him signed.