An Armchair Evaluation – The Washington Nationals in Spring Training Action

Posted on March 24, 2015 by Ryan Sullivan

Although winter seems to be stubbornly hanging around like a freshman at a college party this year, Opening Day at Nationals Park is now less than two weeks away.

With this in mind and new acquisition Yunel Escobar making his first appearance in Nationals’ uniform, I thought Monday’s game was an opportune time to scout the Nationals and their spring training progress toward the opener. These are my notes from the contest, in which Washington defeated the New York Yankees 7-6.

* Doug Fister served as the Nationals starting pitcher and had a rather uneven performance, pitching 4.1 innings and allowing 4 runs on 7 hits, no walks and 4 strikeouts. Impressively Fister had his fastball darting around the strike zone and he was able to miss plenty of bats. However, his trademark pinpoint command of the strike zone was somewhat lacking, as he left a few pitches up in the zone that were well-struck, including two monster home runs allowed. Also, Fister seemed to be around 83-86mph with his fastball according to the television radar gun, significantly below his average of 89mph last season. Certainly television radar numbers are known for their inconsistency and inaccuracy, but still, the middling velocity and hard contact is slightly concerning.

* In particular I was curious to watch new Nationals second baseman Yunel Escobar, who was seeing his first game action of the spring after injuring his oblique earlier in spring training. Escobar batted leadoff for Washington Monday and in his first at-bat he beat out an infield single to third base, running home to first in 4.42 seconds with a slip out of the box. His second at-bat had Escobar see six pitches before making a line drive out to left field.

In the field Escobar looked a little rusty, making a throwing error while attempting to turn a double play in the 2nd inning – Escobar appeared to rush the throw slightly which caused the ball to sail into the dugout. In fairness, it had just begun to rain and perhaps the baseball merely squirted out of his hand. Later in the 3rd inning Escobar made a nice reactionary diving play toward his left, a positive sign considering his injury. He was pulled in the 4th inning for Danny Espinosa and should gradually build his workload in preparation for Opening Day.

* Michael “Toolshed” Taylor continues to impress this spring, going 1-3 with a walk and a run scored Monday, along with excellent defense in center field. Taylor has struggled making contact and needs to draw more walks in the big leagues, which made his 4-pitch walk in the 2nd inning another positive sign. Then in the 4th Taylor roped a 1-0 cutter into center field for a loud single and later came around to score on a hit in the gap.

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In the field Taylor made a fantastic play in the 4th inning, running far into the right field gap to easily track down a sure double. Taylor can influence the game in all three phases and his immense physical gifts could make it extremely difficult for Denard Span to reclaim his gig when he returns from his injury.

* Blake Treinen entered the game in the 8th inning and had one walk and one strikeout around a double-play. His sinking fastball was sitting 92-96mph with heavy down-and-in movement toward right-handed hitters. In addition Treinen flashed a sharp 86-87mph slider he purposely buried in the dirt to induce whiffs. Treinen has not allowed a run thus far in spring training and this success should have him seeing plenty of high-leverage innings for the Nats bullpen in 2015.

Additional Notes:

Nationals Prospect Drew Ward

As a prospect-nerd, I was excited to see how well 3B Drew Ward would compete against major leaguers. In his first at-bat, Ward took an outside fastball and slapped an infield single to shortstop. The 4th inning found him up with men on 1st and 2nd with 1 out, and Ward worked the count before grounding out to first base, getting to first base in 4.20 seconds. While I still worry Ward will physically outgrow the position as he matures, I am beginning to think perhaps left field, not first base, could be his eventual defensive position.

Danny Espinosa had a nice single in the 4th inning against a righty Jose Ramirez, taking an outside 91mph cutter and lashing it back through the middle. I was particularly impressed with how quiet he stayed during his leg-kick then whipped the bat head confidently through the strike zone. Certainly one at-bat does not foretell how his experiment hitting exclusively right-handed will turn out, but his obvious confidence at the plate was encouraging to see from someone undergoing such a difficult transition.

Scouting The MLB Draft – Maryland RHP Mike Shawaryn

Posted on March 23, 2015 by Ryan Sullivan

University of Maryland Sophomore RHP Mike Shawaryn

Date Scouted: Multiple Times, Most Recently 3-13-15 In-Person

7-Word Scouting Report: Mature Build, Still Raw, Intriguing Fastball Slider

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On this afternoon, Shawaryn featured a 3-pitch arsenal consisting of an 87-90mph fastball, a sweeping 77-79mph slider that overmatched the opposing batters, and the occasional well below-average high-70s changeup. Shawaryn located his fastball well, especially arm-side on the corner and the pitch often had some late cutting action. He did well to get ahead of hitters by pounding the outside corner for first-pitch strikes, then would baffle hitters with his sweeping slider that he threw both for strikes and intentionally in the dirt to induce whiffs. The slider was particularly impressive, as he would start it at the lead hip of right-handed batters and it would sweep across the outer third of the plate for a strike. The changeup was only thrown a few times to lefties as more of a “show-me” pitch; this offering needs significant work in the future.

As a sophomore college pitcher from the northeast, certainly Shawaryn is still raw and needs plenty of experience on the mound, but the starter kit is quite strong – a physical pitcher with a repeatable delivery, a fresh arm and two quality pitches. He needs to add velocity as he matures and develop confidence in his changeup, but Shawaryn is an impressive collegiate prospect. Assuming he continues to pitch well this spring and summer, Shawaryn should be on everyone’s list next spring as a potential 1st or 2nd round pick.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9SFybh_iOY

THE NatsGM 2015 Fantasy Baseball Preview – The Sleepers

Posted on March 20, 2015 by Ryan Sullivan

The past two days here at NatsGM.com have been spent identifying both hitters and pitchers that should be targeted during fantasy baseball drafts this year to insure victory. To conclude our fantasy preview coverage, today we shift our attention to players being selected later in drafts, commonly known in fantasy slang as Sleepers.

The term Sleeper is perhaps the sexiest and least concrete term in sports, as it has different meanings to each person. In general most consider a Sleeper someone who outplays his average draft position, though for me this fails to capture the entire concept – a late round pick who is the difference between a middle-of-the-fact finish and winning a championship. In order for a player to be considered a Sleeper for the purposes of this article, he must fall outside the top-200 in Average Draft Position on ESPN.com.

In this article last year I successfully predicted excellent seasons for then Sleepers Howie Kendrick, Anthony Rendon and Yordano Ventura. On the other hand I missed like Adam Jones on a low-and-away slider on my predictions on Ubaldo Jimenez, Colby Rasmus, and Nick Swisher. That’s still a .500 batting average and dare I say, better than most of the fantasy “experts”. These are my 2015 Sleepers.

THE Sleepers

1) Oswaldo Arcia OF Minnesota Twins (ADP 200.1)

Arcia has weaknesses in his game, as his home park suppresses offense, he strikes out a lot and he provides little speed, but what he does provide is significant power and upside at a bargain price. He hit 20 home runs in 372 at-bats last season and has hit 34 homers in 723 career ABs. Still only 23-years-old, Arcia could hit 25+ bombs this season if he stays healthy for 500+ at-bats, with some potential for batting average improvement if he can learn to lay off the breaking ball away.

2) Jenrry Mejia RHP New York Mets (ADP 220.5)

A converted starter, Mejia has an electric upper-90s fastball and quietly converted 28 of 31 save attempts in 2014. The Mets have starting pitching depth throughout the organization, meaning that Mejia’s success last season should portend a career pitching in relief. Mejia likely begins the season as their closer, especially considering Bobby Parnell will start on the disabled list, meaning he should be a cheap source of saves and strikeouts for the shrewd owner (me!) who drafts him this spring.

3) Brandon Belt 1B San Francisco Giants (ADP 226.0)

Belt suffered a concussion last season that essentially wiped out the second half of his season, forcing him to struggle to a .243 average with 12 home runs. Allow this unfortunate injury to help you secure Belt late in drafts and grin like The Joker when this 27-year-old breaks out with 20+ home runs along with a handful of stolen bases.

4) Danny Salazar RHP Cleveland Indians (ADP 229.4)

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5) Nick Castellanos 3B Detroit Tigers (ADP 234.0)

This guy reminds me of the of the 1999 classic “Forgot About Dre” as the fantasy world is more than sleeping, they are in a coma, on Castellanos. Possessing one of the sweetest right-handed swings in baseball, Castellanos spent all last season as a 22-year-old in the big leagues and hit .259 with 11 home runs and 66 runs batted in. Now 23-years-old Castellanos should hit either #6 or #7 in a potent lineup behind Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, and Victor Martinez. I expect his batting average to jump closer to .280 this season, with 15+ home runs and 80+ RBI, making Castellanos a terrific value this late in drafts.

6) Wily Peralta RHP Milwaukee Brewers (ADP 260.0)

Lost amidst the poor finish to the Brewers 2014 season, Wily Peralta blossomed into a mid-rotation major league starting pitcher, posting a 17-11 record with a 3.53 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 154 strikeouts. Fast forward and the 26-year-old Peralta is often going undrafted this spring, as his sub-7 K/9 rate is scaring off owners thinking last year was a fluke. Certainly the 17 wins will be difficult to match, but otherwise I see little reason why Peralta cannot match or surpass his 2014 numbers this season.

Honorable Mention: Trevor Bauer RHP Cleveland Indians, Wilmer Flores SS New York Mets, Chase Headley 3B San Diego Padres, and Kennys Vargas 1B/DH Minnesota Twins

BOLD Fantasy Predictions

1) Shin-Soo Choo (192.2 ADP) will statistically outperform Nelson Cruz (60.5 ADP) in 2015.

2) Jimmy Rollins (133.2 ADP) will out produce Elvis Andrus (115.1 ADP) and Alexei Ramirez (96.8 ADP).

3) Justin Verlander (141.7 ADP) currently being selected outside the Top-35 starting pitchers, will finish 2015 as a top-20 starter.

4) Jason Kipnis rebounds like Charles Barkley from a poor 2014 to post a .275/15/70/25 statistical line for Cleveland in 2015.

* Have any fantasy sleepers and/or Bold fantasy predictions of your own – I encourage you to share them in the comment’s section. *

THE NatsGM Fantasy Baseball Preview – Pitching

Posted on March 19, 2015 by Ryan Sullivan

Pitching in fantasy baseball has always invoked many strategies, as the most dominant pitchers are typically capable of helping in only four categories (ERA, WHIP, Strikeouts and/or Saves and Wins) versus the best hitters, who contribute in all five offensive categories. This factor, along with the injury risk associated with pitchers, often has me avoid pitchers (like I do the gym) early in fantasy drafts. In fact, my personal preference is to avoid a pick on a pitcher until after Round 5.

Yesterday I highlighted five hitters I expect to have much stronger seasons in 2015 than most fantasy baseball “gurus” expect. Today in Part-2 I analyze the pitching ranks to spot some undervalued arms capable of returning plenty of value on draft day for your fantasy squad. Draft these names with confidence and starting building a shelf for your future fantasy baseball trophy.

Pitchers

1) Gerrit Cole Pittsburgh SP (ADP 80.4)

The former #1 overall pick in 2011, Cole has quietly posted a 3.45 ERA, 3.09 FIP, and 8.4 K/9 ratio over 255.1 innings pitched for the Pirates the last two seasons. Now 24-years-old and set with a terrific defense behind him, this feels like Cole’s breakout season toward becoming one of the best 10 pitchers in baseball. Draft him in the 6th round this year, as it will be the last time he escapes the top-4 rounds for the rest of the decade.

2) Hisashi Iwakuma Seattle SP (ADP 116.5)

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3) Chris Archer Tampa Bay SP (ADP 143.7)

Lost in the difficult 2014 season for Tampa Bay was the breakout season from Archer, who threw 194.2 innings with a 3.33 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 173 strikeouts. He finds himself being drafted around the 12th round due to his lack of wins, but this 26-year-old has the talent to improve on his 2014 statistics and could benefit from a rebound season for the Rays. I am predicting 15 wins for Archer this season, along with a midseason selection to the AL All-Star team – make sure you shrewdly secure his services before another owner snatches him up.

4) Andrew Cashner San Diego SP (ADP 153.0)

This is strictly a gamble on Cashner’s health, as his talent on the mound is unquestioned with a career 3.25 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. However, Cashner is being chosen outside the top-150 because he has thrown only 409.2 innings since 2010 and his 7.27 career K/9 ratio does not match his monstrous arsenal. That said Cashner has plenty of positives, as his pitches in a pitcher’s park in a pitcher-friendly division, the Padres are projected to have a strong bullpen and have upgraded their roster significantly this offseason. Still only 28-years-old Cashner has the potential to post 14+ wins with excellent ratios in 2015, something few names selected this late in the draft can do.

5) Jose Quintana Chicago White Sox SP (ADP 186.0)

Slightly overshadowed on a pitching staff with Chris Sale and new arrivals Jeff Samardzija and David Robertson, Quintana is a talented arm in his own right, posting a 3.32 ERA, 2.81 FIP, and 178 strikeouts in 2014. He finds himself going outside the top-15 rounds because he won only 9 games, much of which could adjust with an improved bullpen and lineup in 2015. Count on Quintana for 12 wins and 180 strikeouts this season, with the potential for more if the offense carries him to a few extra wins.