Draft Day has finally arrived!  After watching hundreds of games in anticipation of the three day extravaganza known as the MLB Draft, I am giddy with excitement to see how it will play out this year.  While Washington does not select until pick #68, the lack of certainty of who will be available when the Nationals choose, along with a lack of a consensus top pick overall, makes this one of the more interesting drafts in recent years. 

In this mock draft, I have tried to look for any possible patterns from a team’s front office in their preferences with their early round picks, combined with a general awareness for where the top prospects are expected to be selected.  I have limited this mock draft to the first 20 selections, along with the Orioles and Nationals top selections, as it becomes far too difficult to project that late in the draft without significant insider knowledge.   

With this in mind, here is the Official 2013 NatsGM Mock Draft, with a bit of analysis after each selection. 

Houston Astros  #1  –              Mark Appel RHP Stanford University

There are seemingly three players comprising the top tier in this year’s draft (Appel, Kris Bryant, and Jonathan Gray) in some order, and I believe the Astros choose to pair the safest player in the draft with the core of hitters currently in their system.  I would not be surprised however, if the Astros chose UNC third baseman Colin Moran and decided to re-allocate some of their bonus pool to later picks.

Chicago Cubs  #2  –              Jonathan Gray RHP University of Oklahoma

Thinking the Cubs want to see Appel available rather than Gray, but if not, I think the Cubs choose the potential superior ceiling of Jonathan Gray over the safer hitter Kris Bryant. 

Colorado Rockies  #3  –              Kris Bryant 3B University of San Diego

While I would expect the Rockies to prefer a pitcher to a hitter, considering their hitter-friendly home park of Coors Field, I expect Colorado to take whoever is left from Appel, Gray, and Bryant.  If somehow Gray or Appel is available, I would think the Rockies would take a pitcher.

Minnesota Twins  #4  –              Colin Moran 3B University of North Carolina

Minnesota has shown a preference recently for high school players and high-ceiling pitchers, which leads many to place Texas high school pitcher Kohl Stewart in this slot.  However, after many years of struggling to find a permanent solution, I think the Twins take UNC 3B Colin Moran to see a quicker return on their selection at the major league level.

Cleveland Indians  #5  –              Clint Frazier OF Georgia HS

Hoping to see any of the four players selected above them available, if none are available I believe the Indians take the top high school hitter available in Georgia high school slugger Clint Frazier.

Miami Marlins  #6  –              D.J. Peterson 3B University of New Mexico

Miami tends to scout the state of Oklahoma particularly well and typically pick players that will sign quickly and near slot value.  If Colin Moran is still available, I think he would be the pick, but if not, I think they go with a safe, collegiate bat who should sign quickly like Peterson or Mississippi State OF Hunter Renfroe. 

Boston Red Sox  #7  –              Austin Meadows OF Georgia HS

I am tempted to put Nevada pitcher Braden Shipley in this position as they have shown a preference for college players in recent years, but the ceiling and potential of Meadows might be too much for Boston to pass on.

Kansas City Royals  #8  –              Braden Shipley RHP University of Nevada

Kansas City might run to the podium to make this selection, as they have plenty of young hitters in their organization but have struggled to find starting pitching, as seen by offseason moves to sign Jeremy Guthrie and trade for Ervin Santana.  If the draft plays out in this scenario, I think the Royals would be ecstatic to add this explosive arm to their farm system.

Pittsburgh Pirates  #9  –              Kohl Stewart RHP Texas HS

Having two picks in the top-14 selections, I think the potential to add the top high school pitcher in the draft might be too tempting for the Pirates.  If Stewart is available, look for the Pirates to take him and take someone a bit easier to sign at pick #14.

Toronto Blue Jays  #10  –              Reese McGuire Catcher Washington HS

I expect Reese McGuire, the top catching prospect in this draft, to come off the board before this pick, but I have not been able to find the perfect fit.  McGuire has impressive defensive skills which should keep him there as a professional and a solid bat, which could make him an all-star if everything comes together.

New York Mets  #11  –              Ryne Stanek RHP University of Arkansas

The Mets have built their organization on solid starting pitching, and I expect them to pounce if Stanek is still available at this selection.  Mentioned as a possible top overall selection prior to this season, Stanek represents good value as a potential #2-#3 starter in the future here outside the top-10.

Seattle Mariners  #12  –              Dominic Smith 1B California HS

Needing power and talented hitters in any form, I think the Mariners would be excited to see California hitter Dominic Smith available here at #12.  If not Smith, I think Seattle would lean hitter rather than pitching.

San Diego Padres  #13  –              Trey Ball LHP Indiana HS

I expect Ball to be selected prior to this spot, but the way it has played out, leaves him still available.  The Padres have shown they will take high school players, and I think they quickly scoop up the top high school lefty in this draft.

Pittsburgh Pirates  #14  –              Tim Anderson SS East Central CC

After taking a more difficult to sign player at pick #9, I expect the Pirates to try and save some of their bonus pool dollars with this pick and select the top junior college player in this year’s draft, shortstop Tim Anderson. 

Arizona DBacks  #15  –              Hunter Renfroe OF Mississippi State University

The definition of gritty and a grinder, Hunter Renfroe fits in perfectly with their new organizational attitude and would slot well for Arizona in the middle of Round 1. 

Philadelphia Phillies  #16  –              J.P. Crawford SS California HS

The Phillies tend to draft for upside and do not fear taking high school athletes, leading me to give them the top high school shortstop available in, J.P. Crawford, an excellent athlete who should stay at shortstop professionally.

Chicago White Sox  #17  –              Alex Gonzalez RHP Oral Roberts

Aside from taking high school athlete Courtney Hawkins last year, the White Sox tend to draft college players expected to sign for slot value.  With this in mind, if Gonzalez is still available, rumors have him going higher, I think Chicago would gladly select Gonzalez. 

Los Angeles Dodgers  #18  –              Sean Manaea LHP Indiana State University

The Dodgers have flexed their financial muscle since their new ownership took over last season, and this could be another opportunity to do just that by selecting Manaea, a projected top-5 pick before the season based on a dominating Cape season last summer.  Manaea had a miserable junior season, culminating in reports of injuries to his pitching hip.  Manaea is the biggest question mark in the draft, but I think he slots nicely here for the Dodgers.

St. Louis Cardinals  #19  –              Austin Wilson OF Stanford University

Drafted by St. Louis three years ago in the 12^th round, I think the Cardinals select Austin Wilson again if he is available and gamble on his enormous power. 

Detroit Tigers  #20  –              Phil Bickford RHP California HS

The Tigers tend to select the best player available on their board, and are comfortable taking high school players, leading me to believe they take the fastest riser in the draft class, California high school pitcher Phil Bickford.  If Bickford is gone, which seems to be the consensus opinion, maybe they take another high school pitcher like Ian Clarkin or Rob Kaminsky. 

Baltimore Orioles  #22  –              Ryan Eades RHP Louisiana State University

The Orioles did well to select fellow LSU righty Kevin Gausman in the 1^st round last summer, and Eades would be another impressive pitching prospect to add to their farm system.  The Orioles have been mentioned with many high school players, but I expect them to focus on a college player this year such as Eades, Florida pitcher Jonathon Crawford, or Notre Dame third baseman Eric Jagielo. 

Washington Nationals  #68  –              Bobby Wahl RHP University of Mississippi

It is so difficult to predict how the draft will play out prior to pick #68, but the Nationals have shown a tendency to take the most talented player available in the past few years and have not shied away from injured pitchers.  If Sean Manaea possibly slipped this far, I would be stunned if the Nationals did not scoop him up. 

However, if as expected he is gone, I think the Nationals take the Best Player, with a preference for a college pitcher in an ideal world.  I am projecting hard-throwing Mississippi pitcher Bobby Wahl for the Nationals, but if not him, other potential targets could be Texas RHP Corey Knebel, Oklahoma LHP Dillon Overton, Cal State Fullerton RHP Michael Lorenzen, and Vanderbilt LHP Kevin Ziomek.

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Thanks for reading and I hope a few of these predictions come true.  I will be Live Blogging all 3 days of the MLB Draft, with a primary focus on the Nationals selections, beginning tonight at 7pm – Please join me as we initiate 40 new Nationals into the organization the next three days. 

Like so many area kids counting down the days until the school year ends and summer vacation begins, I have found myself focusing on the clock in anticipation of Thursday night and the start of the 2013 MLB Draft.  Although the Nationals only have one pick, #68 overall, Thursday evening, I am excited to see how general manager Mike Rizzo and the Nationals scouting department approach this draft as they attempt to replenish the farm system. 

Last year the Nationals shocked everyone by selecting injured pitching prospect Lucas Giolito, then going decidedly college-heavy with their remaining picks in order to find enough bonus pool money to sign him.  The Nationals could employ a similar strategy again this year and select a falling talent like Indiana State pitcher Sean Manaea, or they could divert from last year and have a more balanced approach, attempting to add depth to their lower minors. 

Yesterday, I examined some of the top hitting prospects available in this year’s draft, and today in Part 2, I attempt to familiarize everyone with some of the top pitchers available.  Obviously there will be plenty of pitchers selected in the 1^st round I have failed to highlight, but these reports only include pitchers I have watched numerous times and can give a somewhat educated opinion on their potential.  Below are my personal scouting notes on some of the top pitching prospects in this year’s draft. 

Pitchers

Jonathan Gray                  RHP  University of Oklahoma

A huge kid with an even bigger fastball, Gray has impressively flown up draft boards, going from a 13^th round pick out of high school and an 11^th round pick in 2011 out of junior college, Gray now has an excellent chance of being the top pick in the 2013 draft.  Gray has overwhelmed hitters this season with a monster 95-97mph fastball that touches 100mph, a swing-and-miss caliber slider, and inconsistent but promising changeup. 

Gray has a huge, thick body, and a relatively fluid pitching motion, leading scouts to believe he will remain a starter as a professional.  He will need some time in the minors to improve his motion and the consistency of his off-speed stuff, but his fastball and slider combination give him as high a ceiling as anyone in this draft.  There is more development risk with Gray than a team might prefer from a top-3 selection, but if everything clicks, Gray has the potential to become one of the ten best starting pitchers in baseball in a few years.

Mark Appel                        RHP  Stanford University

In contention to be the top overall pick in the 2012 draft before sliding to 8^th overall to the Pirates, Appel spurned Pittsburgh’s offers and decided to return to Stanford for his senior season.  While many questioned his decision last summer, it appears Appel has beaten the odds and improved his stock and the signing bonus he can command.

Appel features a powerful mid-90s fastball, a sharp biting slider, and a reasonable changeup as well.  Combined with a solid, refined throwing motion and good command of the strike zone, Appel should be relatively quick to the major leagues and seemingly has a high floor as a #3-#4 starting pitcher.  However, if he can improve his changeup and the movement on his impressive fastball, Appel could be better than a mid-rotation starter.  Appel is probably the safest pick in the 2013 draft, and might be the first to reach the major leagues.

Ryne Stanek                       RHP  University of Arkansas

Drafted by Seattle three years ago, Stanek was impressive in his first two seasons at Arkansas and entered this year as one of the names mentioned to be the top overall selection.  Stanek stumbled a bit this season, perhaps with a slight case of Draft-itis, posting a 79/41 strikeout to walk ratio in 97.1 innings this spring, though he did produce an excellent 10-2 record and 1.39 ERA.

Stanek has a promising three pitch repertoire including a power low-to-mid 90s fastball, a very good but inconsistent slider, and the makings of a good changeup.  His pitching delivery is not especially pretty, and needs some polish with a good minor league pitching coach, but he has an excellent pitcher’s frame with room to add weight and strength.  Stanek will need more development in the minor leagues than one might expect from a college pitcher in the SEC conference, but if a team can practice patience, Stanek has a chance to be one of the best players from the draft ten years from now.

Ryan Eades                         RHP  Louisiana State University

Pitching on the weekend the past three years in deferment to Kevin Gausman and Aaron Nola, Eades’ talent is impressive in his own right.  Eades has a lean, projectable body and a heavy mid-90s fastball, an impressive curveball, and an improving changeup.  However, his statistics leave scouts questioning how his stuff will translate as a professional, as he allowed 98 hits and 30 walks against only 77 strikeouts in 96 innings this season.  The team that drafts Eades on Thursday will focus on his projectable frame, present repertoire, and promise of developing into a #3 starter in a few years. 

My Favorites

Jonathan Crawford        RHP  University of Florida

Somewhat overlooked in his college career by the sheer number of talented players Florida has had on their roster the past three seasons, Crawford assumed the role of Friday starter for the Gators this season and pitched well, posting a 3.84 ERA in 86 innings this season.  Owning a stocky, thick frame, Crawford pounds the strike zone with a powerful mid-90s fastball, a hard slider, and a less than average changeup. 

His motion does have more effort than one might like from a starter, and his underdeveloped changeup leads many scouts to think his future lies in the bullpen.  While scouts are often right, I think Crawford simply needs some polish and refinement in the minor leagues, but has the talent to make the necessary adjustments.  Expected to be taken later in the 1^st round, I think Crawford develops into a workhorse mid-rotation starting pitcher in a few years and makes the general manager who selects him quite happy down the road.

Karsten Whitson              RHP  University of Florida

Drafted 9^th overall in the 2010 draft, Whitson spurned the Padres contract overtures to attend college in Gainesville.  Three years ago, Whitson flashed a high-90s fastball, a devastating slider, and a promising changeup, which in addition to his sturdy pitchers frame, made him the 2^nd high school pitcher selected in the draft behind only Jameson Taillon.

Unfortunately unlike Mark Appel mentioned earlier, Whitson attended college and has watched his draft stock plummet, culminating with Whitson suffering a shoulder injury to his pitching arm prior to this season and forced him to miss this entire season.  Whitson’s best and most likely course of action would be to rehabilitate his shoulder and return to Florida for his senior season to rebuild his value. 

The Nationals have shown a propensity to draft pitchers with questionable health, namely Lucas Giolito, Nathan Karns, and Matt Purke in recent years – Karsten Whitson could potentially be another example of this strategy.  Teams should be tempted to use a 2^nd day pick on Whitson in hopes of convincing him to sign and begin his professional career, because if they are patient with him, they could possibly steal a talented pitcher to add to their farm system.

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Thanks for reading!  I will be back tomorrow with my 2013 MLB Mock Draft, and I will be Live Blogging all 3 days of the draft, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, so please join me to discuss some future Nationals and everything draft related. 

Hooray… MLB Draft week has finally arrived!  While the day pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training and Opening Day are bigger highlights on the baseball calendar, no other time of year gets me more excited than draft week. Certainly much of this comes from my inner desire to be a baseball scout, but as we have witnessed over the past 5-10 years, the organizations that happen to draft the best, like San Francisco, St. Louis, and Washington, tend to also have success at the major league level.

In my annual NatsGM MLB Draft Preview pieces this year (sponsorship opportunities available), I have tried to highlight a few of the players that should be drafted early on Day 1 of the draft.  This is primarily because the Nationals forfeited their 1^st round selection by choosing to sign reliever Rafael Soriano this off-season, and attempting to pinpoint the Nationals possible selections at selection #68 is quite difficult.  Of course this will not stop me from trying to do so later this week.

Below are a few scouting reports on some of the bigger names in the 2013 Draft.  Obviously there are plenty of 1^st round prospects I have omitted that will be selected on Thursday, but I have only chosen to write about players I have seen multiple times over their careers and can properly give a somewhat educated opinion.

Hitters

Kris Bryant                         3B University of San Diego

A polished high floor collegiate bat, Kris Bryant has some of the best power in the draft.  A massive kid with room to add strength, Bryant likely will move to right field professionally, where his strong arm, good instincts, and decent athleticism should let him be a solid fielder.  But make no mistake, the team that drafts Bryant is expecting most of his value from his bat, which could settle in as a .280 hitter with 30-35 home runs, albeit with plenty of strikeouts as well.  Bryant is a very solid prospect who could reach the majors quickly, and is likely to be chosen in the Top-5.

Colin Moran                     3B University of North Carolina

A proven college hitter with a strong track record of success at North Carolina and last summer in Cape Cod, Moran has one of the best swings in this draft, with a strong hit tool and some power.  On defense, Moran has a strong arm and reasonable athleticism, meaning he should be able to stay at third base as a professional.  The only below-average skill he might have is below-average speed, but his relatively high floor, combined with his potential to hit .300 with 15-20 home runs at his peak should find him off the board in the Top-10. 

Austin Meadows             OF Georgia HS

What an athlete!  Imagine the ideal high school baseball athlete and there is an excellent chance he looks like Austin Meadows.  Meadows is a big kid with outstanding speed and enough arm strength to stay in center field professionally.  With a quick, compact left-handed swing and a feel for the strike zone, scouts do not question his hit tool much, pretty surprising for a high school kid; however, some scouts question if he will grow into his power as he ages, as he is already fairly physically mature.  That said, Meadows has the potential to be an asset defensively in center and slightly above-average offensively at his peak, which gives him an all-star ceiling if things come together.  I really like this young prospect.

Clint Frazier                       OF Georgia HS

A member of the same travel team as Meadows and nearly neighbors in nearby Georgia towns, Frazier and Meadows have spent most of the past two years jockeying for position as the top high school hitter in this year’s draft.  Though both Georgia high school outfielders, this is about where the comparisons end, as Frazier is nearly physically mature as seen by his thick, powerful, almost amateur wrestler-like frame.  Frazier has good speed and a decent arm, but most scouts assume he will eventually end up in left field, though likely as an asset defensively.

But teams are not necessarily interested in Frazier for his speed or defense, they are enamored with his jaw-dropping bat speed and the power he generates with his wrists.  Even a complete baseball novice would notice how quickly Frazier can swing a bat.  Although Frazier is still a high school outfielder, his short, compact swing should allow him to move fairly quickly through a farm system.  Frazier has rare bat speed and the potential to hit for 30+ home runs at his peak, and he should be off the board in the first 7-10 picks on Thursday. 

Austin Wilson                   OF Stanford University

A top high school hitter in the 2010 draft, Wilson had a known strong college commitment to Stanford, which explains why he fell to St. Louis in the 12^th round.  Based on talent, he likely would have been taken in the top-20.  Nevertheless, Wilson attended college and three years later scouts see much of the same talent, a massively built man with the athleticism and arm to play right field well as a professional, and the raw power to hit 25+ home runs a year.  Wilson does have questions about his hitting, as his swing is not particularly polished for a college hitter, which causes him to strike out far too often.  Scouts fear this could hold him back as he faces better quality pitching, but with the dearth of power in professional baseball today and few questions about his future defensive position, expect Wilson to be taken Thursday evening, possibly in the first 20 selections.   

My Favorites

While neither of these players are unknown to scouts and college baseball enthusiasts, the two players below are prospects that I particularly like. 

Michael Lorenzen            OF/RHP Cal State Fullerton

Many scouts prefer Lorenzen as a pitcher, as he has acted as his team’s closer the past two seasons and can reach 97mph off the mound, however, his above-average speed, solid instincts, and powerful, cannon-like throwing arm make him an outstanding potential center fielder with a bit more polish.  In addition, Lorenzen has average or slightly better power and a reasonably quick swing.  However, his swing needs plenty of refinement and he strikes out far too often, leading many scouts to question if he will make enough contact to allow his other skills to shine.

If he can make a few adjustments at the plate (IF), Lorenzen is a potential gold-glove centerfielder with some pop – think a poor man’s Mike Cameron.  If the scouts are correct and the contact issues are too much to overcome, it should not take much to convert him to a power reliever, and an asset to most any bullpen.  He will probably be drafted later on Thursday in the supplemental 1^st round or the early 2^nd round, and I think the team that pulls the trigger will look very smart in a few years. 

Hunter Renfroe                 OF Mississippi State University

A star for the Bethesda Big Train of the local Cal Ripken summer league the past two summers, there is no college player I have watched more closely than Hunter Renfroe, and I am convinced he is going to be a solid to excellent major leaguer.  He began the year as a 2^nd-4^th round pick according to scouts, but with a breakout junior season combined with the dearth of college hitters in this year’s draft, Renfroe is now comfortably mentioned as a 1^st day draft pick.

A strong, physical athlete with good speed and a strong arm, Renfroe has played many positions the past few years, as I have seen him at catcher and all three outfield positions, but he should comfortably slot in right field as a professional.  While he should be an asset defensively, teams will be drafting Renfroe for his relatively short, compact swing, fast bat speed, solid approach at the plate, and potential to be a .275 hitter with 20-30 home run power in his prime.  Personally I would develop Renfroe as a catcher, as his agility and arm strength made him a very interesting catching prospect  and his potential as a hitter could make him an all-star in a few years.  That said expect him to immediately move to the outfield in order to expedite the development process and get his bat to the big leagues.  Either way, Renfroe is an outstanding hitter, an even better young man, and one of my favorite hitters in this year’s class.