In light of the necessity to place Ryan Zimmerman on the 15-day disabled list with a bad shoulder, late Friday afternoon the Nationals decided to promote uber-prospect OF Bryce Harper to the major league roster.  Unfortunately, this mildly surprising decision had less to do with the preparedness of Harper for big-league pitching, as he was batting .250/.333/.375 spanning 72 at-bats in Triple-A Syracuse, and far more to do with the lack of offensive production from the team thus far.  Currently 24^th in major league baseball with 71 total runs spanning 20 games, and with injuries to their two best hitters, Ryan Zimmerman and Mike Morse, the front office had little choice but to deviate from the original game plan and promote Harper earlier than anticipated.  While I am sure the front office did not expect Harper on their roster at the end of April, the offensive production from left field where Harper will play has been a woeful .097/.207/.125, thereby forcing the team to promote him to Washington.

Clearly most Nationals fans are excited for Bryce Harper’s debut in a Washington uniform, but the real question is whether or not the team is doing the smartest thing by summoning him to the major leagues.  From a business perspective, in spite of their offensive need, the Nationals sent Bryce to the minor leagues for 20+ days in order to delay his MLB service time an additional season and keep him under contract with Washington through 2018, rather than 2017 if they had made the choice to bring him directly to the big leagues out of spring training.  Therefore, GM Mike Rizzo and the Nationals front office made a wise decision financially and for the future of the franchise.

Logically, the next question is if Harper is prepared to succeed on the field at the major league level.  Many people asked me about Bryce Harper’s talents, and while I can discuss his tools and skills like other scouts, the best way I can describe him is, “imagine when you were a kid and you went to the local playground to play pickup basketball, and imagine the best player on that playground, you know the one, the kid that whichever team he was on always won… now imagine that kid is 5 years younger than everyone else on the court and that’s Bryce Harper”.  Even though in the history of major league baseball there have only been a few hitters that were successful at 19 years of age (Mel Ott in 1928, Ty Cobb in 1906, Cesar Cedeno in 1970, and Tony Conigliaro in 1964) Harper is so advanced I will happily gamble on his enormous talents.  While we should expect some growing pains and struggles as he adjusts to major league pitching, until Mike Morse returns from his injury, Bryce Harper is the Nationals best option in left field.
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True, in an ideal world Harper would receive another 250-400 at-bats in the minor leagues to refine his approach at the plate, improve against left-handed pitching, and learn to handle advanced breaking pitches, there is little debate that Harper is a drastic improvement offensively from Roger Bernadina, Xavier Nady, and Mark DeRosa currently playing left field.  Therefore, while I am not a big fan of promoting a player unless they are completely ready, I have stopped questioning the development schedule of Bryce Harper and I think the Nationals are making the proper decision in bringing him to Washington.  The future is now for this precocious youngster.

I encourage you to follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, “Like” my Facebook page search NatsGM, and email me at NationalsGM@gmail.com.  Thank you for reading!

Somehow three months have passed since I have published a new edition of “Dear NatsGM” and because I have such terrific readers, my inbox is currently overflowing with emails.  Just in these few short months, we have lived through the rise and fall of Linsanity, Ozzie Guillen talking Cuban politics and quickly sticking his foot in his mouth, and E! giving a Kardashian sister yet another reality show (just kidding… I think). Therefore, in an attempt to distract my readers stuck inside working this week when they should be out enjoying the sunshine, here is Part 1 of the latest installment of “Dear NatsGM”.

Charles from Section 312 via email -> “Dear NatsGM, it was nice meeting you on Opening Day- what were your impressions of Nationals Park on Opening Day?”

Charles, it was nice meeting you as well, thank you for reading and for saying hello.  As for your question, overall it was a pleasant experience and dramatically improved from seasons past, however, there is still room for improvement.  The food and beverage lines still moved far too slowly, as I attempted to get a hot sandwich and drink and it took me more than a full inning (almost an inning and a half) to do so: this is unacceptable.  Also, while I cannot speak to this myself, I had numerous people tell me that the Nationals closed off the center field gates from letting patrons in while the team was doing their pregame introductions.  Assuming these individuals are telling the truth, this makes little sense to me, as I would think the team would want as many fans as possible in the park to welcome their first place team home for the season.

Those critiques aside, I want to commend the team for hosting a truly wonderful opening day at the park.  Granted, Cincinnati is not a large draw in terms of opposing fans, but I was stunned by the overwhelming number of Nationals hats, jerseys, and merchandise worn by the crowd.  Furthermore, the fans were passionate throughout the game and were especially energetic and loud in the later innings as the Nationals rallied to win the game in the 10^th inning.

In addition to the spirited crowd, I was particularly impressed by the improved quality of the food (my steak and cheese was solid) along with the growth in quality beer options available (Dogfish Head anyone?) throughout the park.  Cheers on a job well-done!  Also, I was excited to hear that Tyler Clippard’s entrance music this season will be The Fugees “Ready or Not” – this song instantly transports me back to my high school years.  Not to mention the amusement I took shocking my Dad by knowing the words to the song: the look of confusion on his face was priceless.  Finally, in previous years the Nationals giveaway on opening day has been a souvenir cap, and recent efforts have been underwhelming, to say the least.  However, the hat this year was rather nice and of much higher quality than you would expect from a stadium giveaway and another subtle upgrade to the game day experience from the Nationals.  Incidentally, if anyone has an extra hat, please email me and let me know.

Like I said above, the Nationals did an excellent job producing a wonderful experience for their fans on opening day.  Did anyone else have something to add, either positive or negative, about opening day?  If so, please leave your comments below, I would be curious to read them.

Alden via Facebook -> “Dear NatsGM, the recent talk in my office is when we’ll see Harper called up to Washington, general consensus was mid-summer.  I disagreed.  Thoughts?”

Alden, I probably have received this question in some form or another more often than paparazzi on the red carpet this winter asked each other who is George Clooney’s new tall girlfriend.  A month ago when I was visiting Nationals spring training, I started to believe that counter to the numerous financial considerations for delaying Harper’s major league debut, that Bryce would be the opening day right fielder.  Yes, his growing pains would be considerable, but his talent would allow him to be a passable major league outfielder today.
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That being said, my current prediction is Harper arrives in Washington June 1^st, the beginning of the Nationals home stand against the Braves and the Mets.  Also, if I was a gambler, I think June 1 would be an excellent over/under date for his arrival in Washington, as his arbitration clock would be delayed a full season and the absence of Mike Morse’s bat in left field will likely be wearing on the lineup by then as well.  This timeline would give Harper about 50-55 minor league games and 200-250 ABs, all while polishing his defense in center field. This timeline is aggressive and would be delayed if he injures himself at any time, but I think it takes him about 100 ABs to find his groove and another 100-150 ABs to force his way to Washington.

Thank you for writing… Anyone else want to share a prediction for Harper’s first game in Washington?

Marc via Facebook -> “Dear NatsGM, is Ian Desmond as good as his recent play or is this an illusion?”

Marc, good question and something I have been wrestling with myself, as Desmond has played better in the first two weeks of the season than at any point I can remember during his pro career.  The easy (and snarky) answer is that it is a small sample size and his numbers will quickly subside from his current  .321/.356/.446 batting line and two errors on defense.  However, I do not believe our eyes are completely deceiving us, and the answer lies somewhere in the middle.

I think we are witnessing the beginning of Desmond fulfilling the potential the Nationals have seen in him for many years.  While I agree he is currently riding a hot streak, I see Desmond settling in as a .275/.330/.410 batter with 10-15 home runs, 15-25 stolen bases, and average to slightly above-average defense at shortstop.  If he can post these type of numbers annually, it would make him a league-average (or slightly better) major league shortstop, a particularly valuable commodity in today’s game.  Here’s hoping Desmond is entering his prime and flourishing with his opportunity… Thanks for your question.

I will return in the next day or so with Part II – I sincerely thank you for the many emails you send me.  I encourage you to continue to do so, as there is nothing more enjoyable about writing NatsGM than talking baseball with each of you.  Thanks for reading and please continue to spread the word.

I urge you to follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, “Like” my Facebook page by searching NatsGM, and email me at NationalsGM@Gmail.com

Unfortunately I have found myself attending many family functions in recent weeks, and at one of them, one of my sweet but undereducated sports fan relatives asked me a question “What are you looking forward to this baseball season… It does begin soon, right?”  After explaining that yes, the season has just recently begun, I told her that her question was difficult for me to answer, as there are so many things I look forward to each year.  After letting her question marinate in my head for a few days, I decided to share some of the many things I am looking forward to in 2012, both from a Nationals perspective and as a general baseball fan.

As a Nationals fan…

1) I look forward to watching Stephen Strasburg make 25+ starts for the Nationals this season, as his stuff is magical and each time he steps on the mound he has the potential to throw a no-hitter.

2) I look forward to watching Bryce Harper’s debut in Washington and watching his physical talents develop at the major league level.  Also, I look forward to getting to the park early to watch his impressive displays of power in batting practice.

3) I am looking forward to watching a full season from Jordan Zimmermann as he steps forward as one of the best young starting pitchers in the National League.

4) I am looking forward to many random little events… Watching Rick Ankiel make one of his incredible throws from the outfield, watching Ryan Zimmerman charging a slow roller at 3B and throwing the runner out at first, watching Gio Gonzalez’s knee-buckling curveball, watching Henry Rodriguez throw a 100mph fastball, Tyler Clippard fooling opposing hitters with his devastating changeup, and finally, seeing Mike Morse demolish a home run deep into the outfield bleachers.

5) I am looking forward to a summer with the Nationals in playoff contention – I have been living and dying with each pitch so far this season, and I cannot imagine how much fun meaningful baseball in September will be in the Nation’s capital.  Mark my words, this will be a baseball town in six months.

6) I look forward to visiting Hagerstown and Potomac this year to watch Anthony Rendon, Matt Purke, Brian Goodwin, Alex Meyer, and Matt Skole and others develop their talents as they march toward the big leagues.

7) I am looking forward to watching Ross Detwiler flourish for the Nationals this season.  As captain of Detwiler’s fan club, I have long awaited Ross’s opportunity at the big league level, and after a difficult decision from the Nationals front office, he now has his chance to shine at the back end of the rotation.

8) I am looking forward to the first home series against the Phillies this season, especially after the Nationals’ “Take Back the Park” promotion this offseason.  Will Nationals fans flood the park and keep Phillies fans away, or will it be another year of Phillies caps and jerseys infesting Nationals Park?

9)  As I have shared on a few occasions, I spend each Nationals home Opening Day in the stands with my Dad, and in light of some recent events, this tradition will be even more special to share with him this year.  Yesterday was our 6^th consecutive opener, and we were very happy to see a Nationals win.

Major League Baseball…

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2) The Wild Card “Play-In” games – The occasional “play-in” games in recent years have been some of the most nerve-wracking and excellent baseball games and now we are guaranteed two of these games each year.  Count me in, I cannot be more excited for these games in the fall.

3) The MLB Rule 4 Draft – As someone with a website with “GM” in the title, the idea of building through the draft is paramount to me, and this 2-day event can set up an organization for years, or conversely, set them back as well.  This draft will not be mistaken for the talent-rich 2011 draft, but this prospect group has improved their luster in recent months, and I am curious how the new rules regarding signing bonus limits put in place this winter will affect this year’s draft.

4) I am looking forward to watching the real-life soap opera that is the Miami Marlins.  With the trouble Ozzie Guillen has already gotten into, along with questionable clubhouse characters in Carlos Zambrano, Jose Reyes, and Hanley Ramirez,  I look forward to watching this powder keg to see if they have a successful season or if they implode upon themselves.

5) Visiting Oriole Park at Camden Yards – Still the best of the new generation of baseball stadiums, there are few better ways to spend a summer evening than in Baltimore taking in a ballgame.

6) I am looking forward to watching the emergence of several young players on the brink of stardom, namely Dustin Ackley, Madison Bumgarner, Yu Darvish, Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie, Jesus Montero, Matt Moore, Buster Posey, Mike Trout, and Matt Wieters.

7) July 31^st trade deadline – With the expectation that the Nationals should be in the playoff hunt, this trade deadline should find the Nationals as buyers, not sellers as they have been in recent years.  With a deep farm system and a creative general manager in Mike Rizzo, it will be very interesting to see what moves or non-moves the Nationals decide to make.

8) Bobby Valentine returning as manager of the Boston Red Sox and how the Red Sox respond this season.  As one of the most colorful baseball men around, major league baseball is only better for having Bobby V return to the dugout.  In addition to his return, it will be interesting to see how the Red Sox respond to their disastrous September and if they can return to the playoffs, which they have missed two years in a row.

9) Finally, I am making a trip to Chicago to visit Wrigley Field this summer, and as a baseball fan that has never been to Wrigley, I am really looking forward to that trip.

What are you looking forward to in 2012?  I encourage you to share your thoughts in the comments section below… Thanks for reading.

I encourage you to follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, “Like” my Facebook page search NatsGM, and email me at NationalsGM@gmail.com.

Before I get started today, I want to apologize to my readers for being absent the past two weeks; unfortunately a sudden death in my family interrupted our usual baseball analysis and light-hearted chatter.  While this column is a bit belated, I still wanted to write a preview of this baseball season, and give my prognostications for the upcoming year.  With Opening Day now in our rearview mirror and little time to waste, here are my predictions for the 2012 season.

My Predictions…

AL MVP – Albert Pujols Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

There has only been one player (Frank Robinson) in baseball history to win a Most Valuable Player award in both leagues: this year, Albert Pujols makes it two.  Although many question how popular this contract will look a few years down the road, Pujols is the power bat that Anaheim has sorely lacked the past few seasons, and I believe his talents will help the Angels capture the AL West this season.

NL MVP – Joey Votto Cincinnati Reds

While I felt more confident in this selection prior to Votto signing his 10-year contract extension last week, I believe that Votto is poised for a monster season in Cincinnati as he enters his prime.  As the best player on a team expected to compete for the playoffs, I envision Votto narrowly edging Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp for the award.

AL Cy Young – Felix Hernandez Seattle Mariners

While I grant that the Mariners underwhelming offense will likely keep Felix’s win total lower than he will deserve, I believe Hernandez bounces back from last season’s somewhat weaker than expected performance (14-14 3.47 ERA and 1.22 WHIP) and posts a career season while capturing the AL Cy Young.

NL Cy Young – Zach Greinke Milwaukee Brewers

Although Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, and Clayton Kershaw are the trendier preseason selections, Zach Greinke is entering free agency this winter and thus, has the motivation to produce a monster season.  With the relatively weak lineups in the NL Central, I expect Greinke to feast on his competition this year and lead the Brewers to another division title.

AL Rookie of the Year – Yu Darvish Texas Rangers

Darvish is difficult to consider a rookie as he has five years of professional experience in Japan, but due to major league baseball rules, he is considered a rookie for their purposes.  Matt Moore from Tampa Bay and Mike Trout from Anaheim will give Darvish plenty of competition, but Yu’s experience and position as the Rangers staff ace should allow him to capture the award.

NL Rookie of the Year – Mat Gamel Milwaukee Brewers

Gamel has lost some of his prospect luster as he has languished in Triple-A the past three seasons, however, he is a career .301/.374/.512 hitter in Triple-A and now has the opportunity to play every day as he replaces Prince Fielder as Milwaukee’s first baseman.  Yonder Alonso from San Diego and Devin Mesoraco from Cincinnati are two other solid choices, but Gamel will bat in the middle of the order of a team expected to compete for the playoffs, which should give him the edge over his competitors.

The Division Winners and Wild Cards

AL East –                New York Yankees (98-64)

AL Central –         Detroit Tigers (91-71)

AL West –             Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (92-70)

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NL East –                Atlanta Braves (93-69)

NL Central –         Milwaukee Brewers (90-72)

NL West –             Arizona Diamondbacks (89-73)

NL Wild Cards – Philadelphia Phillies (88-74) and San Francisco Giants (87-75)

9 Bold Predictions

1)            The Miami Marlins will finish with a record below .500 this season.

2)            Adam Dunn finishes with 30+ Home Runs in 2012 in a comeback season for the rejuvenated Chicago White Sox offense.

3)            The Nationals will finish 85-77 this season, and fall just short of clinching the 2^nd NL Wild Card.

4)            There will be only one player in the National League to hit 40 Home Runs this season, and it will not be Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, or Joey Votto… It will be Votto’s teammate, Reds OF Jay Bruce.

5)            The Houston Astros will lose 110+ games this season and Minnesota will lose 105+ games.

6)            This is the season that Matt Wieters becomes the undisputed top catcher in the major leagues, as he hits 30 home runs and wins another gold glove.

7)            The Red Sox will miss the playoffs for the 3rd consecutive season, and will finish with a record more similar to 4^th place Toronto than to the 2^nd place Tampa Bay.

8)            Vinnie Pestano from the Cleveland Indians supplants Chris Perez as the team’s closer by Memorial Day and finishes this season with 25+ saves.

9)            Finally, Bryce Harper is called up on June 1^st to start the Nationals home stand against divisional foes Atlanta and New York, and hits 15 home runs in the majors this season.

So what do you think of my selections…. Agree or disagree?  I encourage you to share your thoughts and prognostications in the comments section below.

This “Tip of the Fedora” is and forever will be for my Mother, who passed away a few days ago… She was the driving influence behind my starting NatsGM and the one that encouraged me to chase my dreams.  You left us far too soon and left behind a void that can never be filled, but we will never forget you and I will always love you.