Early Saturday afternoon, the Washington Nationals recalled 1B Chris Marrero from Triple-A Syracuse to fill the roster spot of RHP Ryan Mattheus, who went on the disabled list with shoulder tightness.  Marrero, 23 years old, was batting .300 with 14 home runs, 30 doubles, 69 runs batted in, and a .825 OPS (on-base % plus slugging %) in 483 at-bats this season at Syracuse.  For his minor league career spanning parts of six seasons, he produced a career batting average of.285 with 83 career home runs, 134 doubles, 369 runs batted in and a .809 OPS.

Marrero has long been a top prospect of the Nationals since being selected in the 1^st round (15^th overall) in 2006 out of a Florida high school as a power hitting third baseman.  Long known as a bat-first prospect, it was known during his draft year that he would be moved off third base in professional baseball, with the assumption that he would develop into a power hitting, mediocre defensive corner outfielder.  Unfortunately what athleticism Chris had when he was drafted was sapped when he severely broke his leg in a game during the 2008 season, forcing a very long rehabilitation and an eventual position switch.  When Marrero returned for the 2009 season, he was permanently moved to first base, a position switch he struggled with for his first two years before making drastic improvements prior to 2011.  His improvements defensively along with his promising bat continue to make him an interesting prospect.

So why do the Nationals bring him to Washington now?  There are a few reasons: First, he has hit the ball well this season in Triple-A and has improved defensively, so frankly, he deserves a promotion.  Secondly, with some of the recent struggles the Nationals have had, the focus has shifted a bit toward 2012, and in this instance, where does Chris Marrero fit into the Nationals plans for next year.  Manager Davey Johnson has said to expect Marrero to play most every day, probably only sitting against the toughest right-handed pitchers.  He should see 100-125 at-bats the rest of the season, which should be invaluable to his development and a sample size for the Nationals to judge Marrero going forward.  Finally, I cannot help but think the Nationals are showcasing Marrero for a possible trade this off-season.  With Adam LaRoche scheduled to return from shoulder surgery next year and Mike Morse cementing his status on the team, at-bats likely will be tough to find next season which might allow the team to include him in a trade this winter.

I am very excited to see how Marrero responds in his “tryout” for the rest of this season.  I have been on the bandwagon for Marrero for many years and have long believed that he would be a successful major league hitter.  In fact, it would be very fair to say that I am probably his biggest supporter, certainly in the baseball community (if I can humbly lump myself into that category) as I think he has a true, pure right-handed swing with a good batting eye, quick wrists, solid bat speed, and developing power.  The consensus amongst baseball people and scouts is Marrero will top out as a platoon or bench player in the major leagues: I think he settles in more as a right-handed Adam LaRoche, with less defensive value.   Chris Marrero is one of the few players I have stuck my neck out for while writing NatsGM, and the next 30-35 games will give him a tremendous opportunity to showcase himself…  Here’s hoping he proves me right!
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Big “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to Mike Flanagan and his family and friends.  Mike was a tremendous baseball player and a true Oriole, but over and above that, he was an even better man.  The baseball community and the city of Baltimore lost a true ambassador and he will be missed.  Thanks for many great years and fond memories.

Please follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, find me on Facebook search NatsGM, and you can email me at nationalsgm@gmail.com.

August 15^th is one of the busiest days of the year for many General Managers and Scouting Directors in Major League Baseball, as this date signifies the last date you can sign current year draft picks before the signing deadline.  It is also a busy and frankly, lousy day for college baseball coaches and college baseball in general, as they sit around all day waiting to hear if there star recruits are going to arrive on campus in a few days, or decide to sign a professional baseball contract.  Fortunately, major league baseball and the player’s association have been negotiating to change this deadline (making it earlier in the summer) in order to give the recent draftees more time to play baseball during his draft year, and give college baseball coaches a chance to adapt and prepare for any unexpected surprises on deadline day.

The Nationals have 25 of their 51 selections from June’s amateur draft remaining unsigned as of this morning, and there are ten players that could potentially find themselves signed sometime today: those players include Rice 3B Anthony Rendon, Kentucky RHP Alex Meyer, Miami-Dade CC CF Brian Goodwin, Texas Christian LHP Matt Purke, Santa Barbara CC LHP Kylin Turnbull, Louisburg JC SS Zach Houchins, Mississippi HS RHP’s Hawtin Buchanan and Josh Laxer, North Carolina HS SS Josh Tobias, and Stanford LHP Brett Mooneyham.  There are some talented names in the fifteen unsigned players I did not mention, but I would be VERY surprised if any of them signed today, because if they were going to sign, I believe all fifteen would have done so prior to today.  Thus, I will focus on the ten names I highlighted and discuss them individually:

Anthony Rendon -> It was a surprise that Rendon lasted until the sixth pick, as most thought he would be the first or second player off the board as the best and most polished collegiate hitter in this draft.  I have thought all along he would sign, but that it would not occur officially until 11:59pm this evening.  I think Rendon and his agent Scott Boras are seeking a major league contract and I would expect they use Dustin Ackley’s contract from 2009 (5 years $7.5M MLB deal; $6M bonus; $1.5M in guaranteed salaries) as their baseline in negotiations.  NatsGM prediction -> 99% chance he signs, likely a major league contract at 11:59pm tonight for 5 years and $7.75 million total.

Alex Meyer -> Meyer on talent likely should have been drafted earlier than he was back in June, but lasted until pick #23 because of his relationship with agent Scott Boras and Meyer’s projected bonus demands.  Meyer turned down $2 million from the Red Sox out of high school, and that is likely what it will take to bring him in the fold this go around.  NatsGM prediction -> 98% chance he signs at 11:58pm tonight for $2 million in bonus money.

Brian Goodwin -> Goodwin was another player that was projected to go earlier in the draft last June than he eventually did, allowing the Nationals to pick up this talented center field prospect at pick #34.  The slot value for selection #34 is $918,000 but with Goodwin having the leverage to go back to school again next year as a junior (he was selected as a sophomore because he attended junior college this past season) and with Scott Boras as his agent, Brian will command somewhere north of $1 million to sign.  NatsGM prediction -> 98% change he signs around 11:50pm tonight, for somewhere between $1.25-$1.5 million dollars.

Matt Purke -> Purke is the most difficult to project of this entire group, and has been the biggest “wild card” of the Nationals 2011 draft.  His signing or lack thereof, has been the biggest question of all draft fans this summer and will likely be the first topic of discussion tomorrow morning… Did the Nationals sign Matt Purke?  Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reported over the weekend that GM Mike Rizzo spent the weekend in Texas meeting with Matt; this information, along with the fact that Purke took a physical with the Nationals last month and passed it, leads me to believe that the Nationals will get him signed tonight, likely at 11:59pm.  NatsGM prediction -> 84% chance Purke signs tonight, for a major league contract of 5 years and $3.5 million dollars, $2 million bonus and $1.5 million in salary.

Kylin Turnbull -> Turnbull is the only name in this list of ten that I am surprised has not signed as of yet.  I figured Turnbull would be a quick signature out of Santa Barbara CC and would sign for close to his slot recommendation of $225,000.  He is committed to the University of Oregon this fall but I would be very surprised if this young man turned down that type of bonus to attend college.  NatsGM prediction -> 93% chance he signs, likely for $250,000-$275,000 this evening.

Zach Houchins -> Houchins, a nice hitting prospect from a junior college in North Carolina, ran into trouble with the Nationals soon after being selected, as the team and the fan base soon discovered his Twitter account and some questionable remarks he made on his feed.  This is a terrible situation all around, as Houchins is a solid prospect and would be a nice addition for the Nationals farm system, however, the Nationals are not eager to set themselves up for the questions about signing Houchins and the public relations headache.  NatsGM prediction -> 5% chance he signs with the Nationals today.

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Josh Laxer -> Laxer, not quite as highly thought of out of high school, seems more likely than Buchanan to sign a contract and begin his pro career.  Laxer was seen as a fallback option at draft time in case the Nationals struggled to sign some of their earlier picks, and I expect to see him attend school and shun the Nationals final offer.  NatsGM prediction -> 15% chance he signs prior to midnight.

Josh Tobias -> Tobias is an impressive young prospect with some skills with the bat, but his relative stature, along with his bonus demands will likely see him attend college.  Tobias would be an impressive late signing for the Nationals, but I think three years of development in college is likely the better choice, both for him and the Nationals, than signing him for big dollars today.  I would be surprised if he did sign today, and would put him in the highly unlikely category.  NatsGM prediction -> 5% chance he signs before midnight.

Brett Mooneyham -> Mooneyham would be a tremendous late addition to the 2011 draft class, but I expect his bonus demands, and the difficulty of signing anyone away from a Stanford University scholarship will see him return to Palo Alto this fall.  Mooneyham is a talented lefty with some projection left, but I would be very surprised if we see him turn professional today.  NatsGM prediction -> 5% chance he signs today.

What do you think?  Leave your thoughts and comments in the comments section below and vote in the poll I published earlier.  I will be back tomorrow with my overall 2011 draft recap piece.  Thanks again for reading.

A Big “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to Kathy from Bethany Beach, Delaware who emailed me this morning to ask my predictions on today’s signing deadline.  Thanks for the question and thank you for emailing.

Please follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, find me on Facebook search NatsGM, and you can email me at nationalsgm@gmail.com.

Chien-Ming Wang takes the hill for the Nationals later tonight in his third start back from a devastating shoulder injury two years ago when the Nats start their three game series against the Cubs.  In his first two starts, Wang was very inconsistent, with moments where he flashed his brilliant sinker, and other times when it looked like a high schooler was pitching to major league hitters, allowing 11 runs, 6 earned, in nine total innings pitched.  I charted his last start Wednesday afternoon against the Braves and his performance showed clear positives and negatives.

On the positive side, the velocity was solid on his sinker, hovering around 90-91mph and occasionally possessing great sink and down and in movement to right handed batters, reminding me of his former self from 2006-2008 when he won 46 games in 79 starts with the Yankees.   Also, he flashed a slider with decent tilt on two occasions, which potentially could help keep hitters honest.  Finally, his ratio of 21 ground balls to 9 fly balls (over his two starts) still proves he can induce grounders with his sinker, a key sign that he can get major league hitters out.

Unfortunately too often, especially in the first and fifth innings Wednesday, his sinker morphed into an 86-88mph pitch letter high to batters, which is better known under a different name, a batting practice fastball.  That pitch got hit particularly hard and eventually forced him from the game.  Also, I had Wang for 86 pitches thrown, and two swings and misses from batters, which if correct, is simply a recipe for disaster.  For some quick perspective, it was not rare for Stephen Strasburg to induce two swings and misses in one batter last season: true Wang and Strasburg could not be more different in their styles of pitching, but it is virtually impossible to succeed as a pitcher unless you miss some bats.  Finally, while I mentioned the solid 21 to 9 ground ball to fly ball ratio above, he has also allowed 9 line drives in nine innings, which is a clear sign that he is allowing too much solid contact from opposing batters.

That leaves the Nationals with a big question:  Does Wang simply need more starts and innings to build up his arm strength which will thus allow him to gain a mile or two of velocity and increase the downward sink to his sinker, or has his shoulder injury taken just enough life off his sinker that he will struggle to consistently get major league hitters out?  Wang only pitched 28 innings over six rehabilitation starts in the minor leagues after two full seasons of being injured before being recalled to Washington, not a long period of time of rebuild arm strength.  Wang likely has tonight’s start, and 2-3 more to prove that he still has major league stuff and deserves to be part of the team in 2012.  Otherwise, the Nationals will likely turn to Brad Peacock and Tom Milone (amongst others) from Triple-A Syracuse in September when the rosters expand from 25 to 40 players.  The Nationals have spoken publicly of their desire to give Peacock, Milone and others some major league experience and a chance to make their case for the 2012 roster, which gives me the impression Wang has limited time to impress the organization.

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A Big “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to you, my readers… Thank you for reading and sharing with your friends.  This is my 50^th column, and in my wildest dreams I would never have imagined how many people read NatsGM on a daily basis.  It is truly humbling how far this has come in such a short amount of time and it is all due to you.  This is a dream come true for me, so thank you again for your support.

Please follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, find me on Facebook search NatsGM, and you can email me at nationalsgm@gmail.com.