Live Blogging the MLB Trade Deadline plus the Nationals verses Mets

12:55pm -> We are LIVE from the NatsGM headquarters!  I am back in the previously honored butterfly chair which has been upgraded since we last did this last month for the MLB draft… it now has a pillow for extra comfort!  Let’s get this started… if you have questions or comments for me, leave them in the comments section, or you can send them to me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, Facebook search NatsGM, or you can email me at nationalsgm@gmail.com.

I have already received a few questions, so I won’t waste any more time-

Terry from Towson -> “I know you are the NatsGM, but I was curious what you thought of the O’s trades of Uehara and Derrek Lee?”

Terry, thanks for the question and good hearing from you.  Yes, I am the “NatsGM”, but I like to cover all of baseball and I have some friends with the Orioles, so I definitely love the Orioles as well and keep an eye of them.

As for the trades, I thought sending Uehara to Texas, along with cash, for Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter was simply a stellar move by Andy MacPhail.  The Orioles clear about $4 million in payroll for 2012 by trading Uehara, who is a strong set up man and a nice but not tremendous bargain at $4 million per season, and likely fill two positions for 2012, with Davis the everyday 1B and Tommy Hunter slotting into the middle of the rotation.  I hope the Orioles sit back and give Davis 500 ABs between the end of this season and the All-Star break next season and let him “sink or swim” with the job, because I really believe in his bat.  Texas needed bullpen help rather desperately in front of Neftali Feliz, and Uehara is a huge upgrade for them and under contract for 2012, that said, they clearly sold low on two former big-time prospects.  Very much like this deal for the Orioles.

In the Derrek Lee trade, they sent Lee to Pittsburgh for 1B Aaron Baker:  Pittsburgh will cover his remaining salary, about $2.3 million and the Orioles will cover any bonuses.  I saw Bates play years ago in the Cape Cod league and I did not believe he would hit for enough power with wood to advance particularly far in pro ball.  So far, he has proven me wrong, as his 15 home runs this season show.  I would still be surprised if he made it past the AAA level, but this deal was far more about clearing Lee’s remaining salary and clearing a place for Chris Davis, which this deal accomplishes both.  Andy MacPhail makes another solid deal for the Orioles.  Thanks for the question.

1:06pm -> Numerous people -> “NatsGM, where have your columns been about the Jason Marquis trade and the Jerry Hairston trade?”

Good call everyone, I have been slow to turn those columns around, as I have been under the weather most of this weekend.  I will be publishing those columns tomorrow, so I do not want to steal too much of my own thunder, but here are my brief thoughts.

Jason Marquis for Zach Walters… Marquis has bounced back nicely this season after last years disaster, but the Nationals have some young arms that need innings and experience these next two months and Marquis was not coming back for 2012.  Getting Arizona to take on the rest of the contract was excellent, and Walters is a decent middle infield prospect, nice deal for Mike Rizzo.

Jerry Hairston for Erik Komatsu… Hairston was signed fairly late this offseason but was an excellent signing for the Nationals, as he did a solid job of filling in for Ryan Zimmerman at 3B for most of the first half.  Hairston is a nice player and could help the Nats for the rest of this season, but he would not add more than one or two wins at best down the stretch (likely much less), was not likely to return for 2012, and allows the Nationals to clear space for Brian Bixler, who deserves a chance.  They also had the Brewers take on the remainder of Hairston’s contract, and received a nice outfield prospect who is thriving in Double-A this year.  What’s not to like, really like this deal for the Nationals.

1:11pm -> I really hope that Zach Britton from the Orioles bounces back from that terrible outing and inning yesterday verses the Yankees.  He has too much talent and I hope he can put that behind him and move forward.

1:15pm -> Ok, I do think Brian Bixler deserves a chance, as I think he can be a nice 25th man off the bench, but he should not be batting leading off.  Nationals desperately need a center fielder + leadoff hitter.

Ed from Pennsylvania -> “What are your thoughts of the rumored trade of Drew Storen plus potentially Bernadina and Lombardozzi for Denard Span?”

Ed, thanks for reading and always sending in questions.  It is interesting, as badly as the Nats need a center fielder, the poll I ran the other day about trading Storen straight up for Span, almost 50% of the voters said “NO” to Span, and 20% wanted more than just Span for Storen.  I normally believe that trading relievers for everyday starters, particularly one at a position that you desperately need to fill, is a good strategy, but I worry that the Nationals would be creating a few holes by filling just one.  I think I would eventually support a dealing Storen but I just think this would not be the best deal to make. 

Thanks for the question!

1:34pm -> Just saw this posted on twitter “ TBrownYahooTim Brown With 150 minutes left, Twins don’t believe Span-for-Storen can get done. Time remaining, tho…”  We shall see-

1:38pm -> Trade deadline day and MLB draft day remind me of how excited I used to get as a kid about Christmas morning or the last day of school.  Just love this day and the action-

1:40pm -> Nice steal attempt Willie Harris, wow that was not even close.  Great throw from Flores!

1:48pm -> Very curious what the Mets do this offseason.  The reports say that they want to resign Reyes but it seems like they would have so much payroll wrapped up in Reyes, Bay, Wright and Santana and still have a lot of holes on their roster.  Trading K-Rod and Beltran were both strong trades but I will be interested to see what course Omar Minaya takes this offseason, especially in light of the Bernie Madoff issues with the Mets ownership.

1:53pm -> Think GM Jack Z. and the Mariners regret that Mike Morse for Ryan Langerhans deal?  Wow could they use his bat in the lineup right now.  I do not think Mike Rizzo and the Nationals get enough credit for that trade.  One of the biggest steals in recent memory.

1:56pm -> Cheap shot, but what happened to Jason Bay?  How can he be batting .238 with only six home runs and be making $16 million.  Yikes

Dave from NJ via email -> “It’s about two hours until the deadline, can you give us a couple trades that you think will happen?”

Dave, thanks for the question.  With just a few hours left, I would be surprised if the Yankees did not make a deal, with Wandy Rodriguez or Brett Myers from Houston making some sense depending on price.  I also think they could/should add a bullpen piece as well.

I still expect the Red Sox to make a deal for a bat as well, perhaps Josh Willingham to platoon with Josh Reddick and JD Drew.  And I still believe the Nationals will trade Todd Coffey somewhere, perhaps Anaheim, and I think the Nationals somehow make a deal for a center fielder and with all the rumors of Denard Span, that would be the easy prediction.

Thanks for the question and good to hear from you!

2:17pm -> Certainly not a paid endorsement (though I am more than available) but Stoffer’s makes a delicious frozen lasagna.  I have no idea why someone would slave away baking one when the Stoffer’s is so good.  I am sure the food snobs out there will criticize me on this one, but for the convenience and ease, it is tough to beat.

2:19pm -> Big time baserunning blunder from Daniel Murphy, big break for the Nationals and Jordan Zimmermann to get out of that jam.  Bottom of the 3rd 0-0.

2:35pm -> Ken Rosenthal is reporting via Twitter that Heath Bell has been traded to Texas… waiting for the details but another strong move to upgrade the Rangers bullpen along with Uehara yesterday. Edit -> Now being reported that it is Mike Adams, not Heath Bell.  Supposedly the Padres are receiving Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland.  Not a bad return for the Padres, as Erlin is a well-regarded prospect.

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2:49pm -> 2nd outstanding throw from Jesus Flores today, throwing out Jose Reyes to end the top of the 5th.  GREAT sign to see that, as he has struggled since returning to the big leagues throwing out runners.

2:54pm -> All Nats fans have just a bit of extra incentive to see Jonny Gomes succeed: we want him to keep his Type B Free Agent status, as that could fetch the Nationals a draft pick this offseason.  Nice to see Gomes 2-2 so far today.

3:00pm -> 0-0 End of the 5th inning… one hour to go before the trade deadline, what will happen?

3:07pm -> I thought the ground couldn’t cause a fumble?… oops, wrong sport. Tough break on a play for Jayson Werth. Side note, thank goodness football is back, mostly for fantasy football.

3:14pm -> Great effort from Jordan Zimmermann to strike out the side in the 6th to get out of a jam.  Still throwing his nasty slider and the fastball is still hitting the mid 90s, but with over 100 pitches on this hot afternoon, he could be finished for the day.  If so, just another tremendous outing from this young man.  He is blossoming into quite a pitcher right in front of our eyes.

3:16pm -> Desmond leads off the bottom of the sixth with a double ripped to left field, then Zimmerman comes up and drives him home with a double crushed into the right field gap.  Desmond is such a different hitter in the #2 spot.  I hope they keep him there the majority of this season. 1-0 Nationals.

3:18pm -> Now Mike Morse hits a ball just inside the first base line for a double to drive in Zimmerman.  Another big hit from Mike Morse, 2-0 Nationals.

3:24pm -> Rather surprised at the lack of trade activity around baseball this afternoon.  I know yesterday was pretty active and this morning with the Bourn trade, but I expected many more deals.  Maybe there is a flurry of activity in this last half hour.

3:27pm -> Rumor of OF Ryan Ludwick traded to Pittsburgh, not official yet- Nice to see the Pirates as buyers this time of year

3:34pm -> Nice nine pitch at-bat by Flores ends with him striking out to end the sixth inning.  2-0 Nationals and about 25 minutes until the deadline.

3:40pm -> And Sean Burnett continues to struggle, immediately giving up a solo home run to Scott Hairson to begin the 7th inning. 2-1 Nationals

3:45pm -> Burnett immediately settles down to retire the next three batters.  Time to stretch as the Nationals are leading 2-1.

3:50pm -> Bob Carpenter just gave us a 10 minute warning…

3:54pm -> Zimmerman pops out to shortstop to end the 7th inning.  2-1 Nationals

4:00pm -> 4pm… lets see if anything trickles in late but I am surprised at the lack of activity today.  Just four trades as far as I can tell, Bourn to Atlanta, Adams to Texas, Ziegler to Arizona, and Ludwick to Pittsburgh.  Strange to see things pass with such little activity.

4:04pm -> Another 1-2-3 inning for Tyler Clippard this year, shutting down the Mets in the top of the 8th.  Still 2-1 Nationals.

4:07pm -> Rumors going around Twitter that Erik Bedard has been shipped from Seattle to the Red Sox, waiting for confirmation…

4:09pm -> I know he has been bad so far this year, but Werth is definitely starting to turn it around.  His swing and balance at the plate have been much better the past ten days.  Big 1 out double from Werth and Espinosa looks to drive him in to add an insurance run.

4:16pm -> Both Espinosa and Cora strike out to end the 8th inning.  Storen entering the game to close out the 9th inning, and yes, Storen is still a National.  Looks like the Nats were quiet today but have not received “official word” yet.

4:25pm -> After getting the first two batters on weak ground balls, Storen gives up a solo homer to Scott Hairston, his second of the day and in back to back at-bats.  Storen then gets the next batter to fly out to center field.  Tie game, bottom of the ninth 2-2.

4:32pm -> Ankiel is phantomly hit with a pitch up and in, and the Nationals now have men on 1st and 2nd with no one out.  Bixler is coming to bat and I would expect a bunt here.

4:34pm -> Apparently Brian Bixler is a poor bunter, as he lays down a second bad effort again here and he gets Jesus Flores thrown out at 3rd base.

4:39pm -> Bang! Zoom Go the Fireworks! Another Curly W goes into the books! Tough at-bat by Ian Desmond but he fights off a good 3-2 pitch and hits it over the mound which gets Rick Ankiel home from 3rd base.  Big win from the Nationals 3-2 and a good series victory over the Mets!

4:41pm -> Want to give some quick props to Rick Ankiel for his baserunning in the bottom of the ninth, he did a terrific job getting a read on a pitch in the dirt to get over to 3rd base and then he got a tremendous break on the grounder hit by Desmond to score the winning run.  Great job by Rick to score that run.

Thanks to everyone that joined me today for the Live Blog!  While it was quiet on the trade front, it was a great win for the Nationals and a well-played game.  I will return tomorrow with full write-ups of the Nationals trades of Jason Marquis and Jerry Hairston.

 

You can follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, find me on Facebook search NatsGM, and you can email me at nationalsgm@gmail.com.

Should the Nats trade Drew Storen for Denard Span

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Nationals trade OF Bill Rhinehart and LHP Chris Manno to Cincinnati for OF Jonny Gomes and Cash

Tuesday evening before first pitch against the Marlins, the Nationals agreed to a trade with the Cincinnati Reds, as the Nationals sent OF/1B Bill Rhinehart and LHRP Chris Manno to Cincinnati for OF Jonny Gomes and cash considerations.  Manager Davey Johnson mentioned when he first took over that he wanted to add a power right-handed bat off the bench, and GM Mike Rizzo granted his wish in Gomes.  Gomes, 30, has a .211/.336/.399 batting line with eleven home runs in 218 at-bats in 2011 and a career line of .244/.330/.455 over nine seasons.

Gomes has the reputation as a lefty masher, as his career .281/.276/.510 batting line against lefties attests to: this season he has continued to be tough on lefties, batting .333/.439/.537.  While Gomes clearly has a skill (hitting LHP) and is known as a terrific teammate, he is a liability defensively and cannot hit right-handed pitching, so he must be used by Manager Davey Johnson in specific situations to maximize his skillset.  Gomes is projected to platoon in left field with Laynce Nix and Roger Bernadina and provide a right-handed bat off the bench.   Gomes is scheduled to make 1.75 million in 2011 and will be a free agent after this season.  Gomes currently projects as a Type B Free Agent, meaning that if the Nationals offer him arbitration after the season and Gomes signs a major league contract with another team, the Nationals would receive a compensation pick in the 2012 MLB Draft.  This concept is pretty important, as I think it was the impetus behind this trade.

Bill Rhinehart was an 11th round pick for the Nationals in the 2007 draft from the University of Arizona.  “Dolla” Bill Rhinehart (“Dolla” because he is money as a hitter) had a .283/.376/.587 batting line with 21 home runs this season in Double-A Harrisburg, splitting his time between first base, left field and right field.  He has spent the better part of the last three seasons in Harrisburg, reaching Triple-A for only five games, and owns a .261/.331/.458 for his career.  Limited in the field and almost 27 years old, I do not expect Rhinehart to receive more than a cup of coffee in the major leagues for his career.  He is a solid minor league player, but not someone the Nationals will miss in the future.

Chris Manno was a 26th round pick for the Nationals in the 2010 draft from Duke University.  This season in Hagerstown, Manno has a 1.47 ERA with a 14.4 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9 ration in 61 1/3 innings.  I have watched Manno for years at Duke and two summers ago in Cape Cod, and while he has impressive numbers, he gets by with solid fastball command and deception in his delivery.  My fear with Manno however, is that he lacks enough fastball velocity to get major league hitters out and he struggles to throw strikes with his fringy breaking pitches  .  While his off-speed stuff has improved in the past two years, I fear he will struggle at the Double-A level and I would be rather surprised if he ever develops into a major league reliever.

This trade comes down to a two month rental player and a gamble from GM Mike Rizzo to fetch a draft pick this offseason while trading two minor leaguers with terrific minor league numbers but limited potential to be productive major leaguers.  Gomes makes $1.75 million this season, and should see a slight raise in arbitration to $2.0-$2.5 million for 2012; I fear that he will accept arbitration from the Nationals as I do not think his numbers warrant a multi-year contract from another club, and the security of a guaranteed contract will likely be more enticing than trying his luck in the free agent market.  It is worth mentioning, Gomes has twice previously been non-tendered arbitration, likely for fears he would accept.

If Gomes plays for the Nationals for two months and leaves this offseason without being offered arbitration (30% chance), the Nationals lose this deal.  If Gomes is offered arbitration and accepts arbitration from the Nationals (50% chance) this offseason, the Nationals again lose this deal, as I believe they could sign him (or a similar player) in the offseason for less money, and without giving up players.  Finally, if Gomes is offered arbitration this offseason and signs with another team (20% chance), the Nationals win this deal quite handily, as the compensation pick the Nats would receive (likely pick #40-#60 in 2012) is significantly more valuable than Manno + Rhinehart.  GM Mike Rizzo sounded very confident in receiving a pick as compensation in this scenario saying, “This guy gives us an added boost off the bench. It’s a compensation pick for us if we don’t get something done for him long-term. We thought it was a good, prudent move in giving up part of our depth and our strength in the minor leagues”. (Adam Kilgore’s quote from Nationals Journal article “Mike Rizzo on the Nationals’ trade for Jonny Gomes”)
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Color me skeptical…  I hope to be proven wrong, but this is an interesting gamble by GM Mike Rizzo and a column to revisit in Spring Training.

Overall Grade… D+ … though it goes to a B+ if the Nationals end up with a draft pick

 

** Note ** … This upcoming Sunday, July 31st, I will be live blogging both the Nationals game and the final hours up until the MLB trade deadline.  Please join me with your questions and comments!

You can follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, find me on Facebook search NatsGM, and you can email me at nationalsgm@gmail.com.

Interview with Chris Crawford from MLB Draft Insider about the 2011 Nationals Draft

When I originally started NatsGM, I intended for it to be a forum to share my opinion on the various player personnel moves the Nationals make, and publicly show how good or badly I would do in comparison to the actual General Manager.  I never thought I would be having the opportunity to talk baseball with so many people and interview such incredibly smart people throughout baseball.

A few weeks ago I reached out to Chris Crawford, author of MLBDraftInsider.com and one of the top amateur scouts in the country, and asked him if he would be interested in doing an interview discussing the Nationals 2011 draft.  Chris started MLBDraftInsider this April, and has been a prominent name in the scouting community for many years.  I am grateful Chris shared a few moments from his busy schedule to discuss the Nationals and their 2011 draft.

NatsGM ->          “Chris, during our draft coverage last month, we obviously spent a great deal of time talking about Anthony Rendon and his slide in the draft.  In the midst of that talk and his shoulder, I think we have overlooked what an excellent prospect he is.  Can you please discuss him in some detail and the pick overall?”

Chris Crawford: “Simply put, the healthy version of Rendon is the best offensive prospect of this year’s draft class. He has plus pitch-recognition and an (obvious) ability to get on base, and unreal bat speed. As a third basemen he’s well above average, and has a plus arm as well. Outside of health, the real “negative” going forward is that he does have some timing issues, which could be caused by excess movement that can be corrected. He’s not the sure fire star he appeared to be as a sophomore, but there’s no reason to think Rendon can’t be a well-above average player, if he can stay healthy.”

NatsGM ->          “In your draft piece about the Nationals on MLBDraftInsider , you wrote “I thought Alex Meyer was one of the ten best prospects of the year”; please discuss this pick further and why you think so highly of Meyer and his potential?”

Chris Crawford: “Simply put, Meyer has the best two-pitch combination of any prospect outside of Cole with his fastball and slider. He sits in the 93-95 range, and will get his fastball as high as 97 with lots of movement, and his slider is frisbee like with tilt. There’s no third pitch yet, but if he can develop a change-up or split, he’s got the potential to be a No.1 starter — if his control can improve, and it did improve as the year progressed.”

NatsGM ->          “Chris, I have read that you were rather positive on the National’s Top 10 round selections: I was hoping you could talk about a player(s) within the top ten rounds that you thought was a good pick and deserves mentioning?”

Chris Crawford: “One of the picks I really liked outside of those first four was Matt Skole, an infielder out of Georgia Tech. If the draft were held last year, Skole probably would have gone in the first-round, but injuries and only a so-so junior year hurt his stock considerably. I don’t think there’s any chance he stays at third-base long term, but he’s got a solid swing from the left-side and has shown an ability to take pitches, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if Skole became a regular.”

NatsGM ->          “Chris, in your Nationals draft piece on MLBDraftInsider you were somewhat critical of their selections outside the Top 10 round: Can you expound upon this and if you wish, cite some examples?”

 Chris Crawford: “After the first ten rounds, there just wasn’t much upside here at all. As I wrote in my draft review, there was one high-school player taken in the first 500 picks, and far too many of the selections were college seniors, aka organizational filler. I don’t know if there’s one specific example of the Nationals showing poor value, but there’s no examples of Washington grabbing steals, either.”

NatsGM ->             “I think signability is the biggest current question mark with the Nationals 2011 draft: which players do you expect them to sign (and for how much) and which do you expect to return to campus this fall?”

Chris Crawford: “I would say that Rendon is a lock to sign, and Meyer very likely, too. Goodwin and Purke, though, are going to be very difficult — and I would say Purke is pretty close to impossible. There are too many options for the left-hander next year as a draft-eligible sophomore, and Washington is going to have to go well over slot to sign their first three selections.”
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NatsGM ->          “Chris, how would you rate the Nationals draft against the rest of the NL East?”

Chris Crawford: “Very well, but that might be because I wasn’t a huge fan of any of the other drafts in the division. The Marlins, Phillies, and Braves drafts left much to be desired, and the Mets will have to sign some of their late-round risks in order to have a successful class.”

NatsGM ->              “Before we wrap up, I think it would be unfair for me to ask you for an overall grade for the draft class, as we are still a few weeks before the signing deadline, but could you give us a summary of how the Nationals did last month and how they have done in terms of signing players thus far?”

Chris Crawford:  “I don’t know if it’s completely fair to say that it’s too early to give a grade for the class, because I think it’s just as much about the process as it is about the results. Is there a real chance that the Nationals don’t sign one of their top 100 selections? Of course. That’s not a scouting or recognizing value issue though, that’s a “the draft needs to be fixed” issue. It wasn’t the best draft, but it was easily the best draft of the National-League East, and they did as well as anyone with their first four selections.”

NatsGM ->        “Thank you so much for your insights and for sharing your time with us today:  Where can we keep up with you these days?”

Chris Crawford: “We’ll be having team by team reviews of every team in the draft on MLB Draft Insider, and a top 50 “players to watch” coming soon. You can also follow me on twitter @CrawfordChrisV”

Thank you so much Chris for taking time away from your website MLBDraftInsider.com and from scouting the various summer leagues to share your thoughts on the Nationals 2011 Draft.

 

Big “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to Chris Crawford, who was nice enough to share his time and thoughts with us about the Nationals 2011 Draft Class.  If this is your first introduction to Chris, I highly encourage you to make his website, MLBDraftInsider, a bookmark in your baseball reading.  He is one of the best scouts of amateur baseball right now and a true expert. Thanks again!

** Note ** … This upcoming Sunday, July 31st, I will be live blogging both the Nationals game verses the Mets and the happenings of the MLB trade deadline.  Please join me with your questions and comments!

You can follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, find me on Facebook search NatsGM, and you can email me at nationalsgm@gmail.com.