May 10, 2011

Late Sunday evening, the Nationals completed a trade with the Kansas City Royals to acquire OF Gregor Blanco for the infamous “player to be named later”.  Last season, Blanco, 27, batted .283/.360/.367 with one home run and 14 RBI in 237 at-bats with Atlanta and Kansas City.  For his career, Blanco has produced a .258/.358/.324 in 836 at-bats in 253 career games over parts of three seasons.  Thus far in 2011, Blanco has played in 23 games and had 56 at-bats, producing a .196/.384/.286 batting line for AAA Omaha.  Kansas City removed Blanco from their 40-man roster at the end of spring training, thus the Nationals will not need to make a roster transaction to add him to their 40-man roster.  Blanco will immediately report to AAA Syracuse and provide outfield depth at all three positions.

While this trade cannot be labeled “earth shattering”, I think this is a solid trade by GM Mike Rizzo to add some outfield depth to the organization.  Blanco does a nice job getting on base, has above average speed, and has solid defensive skills at each outfield position, but profiles as a #25 man or quality depth at AAA because of his lack of power.  While we cannot properly judge a trade until the “Player to be Named Later” is announced, the cost should be limited to an “organizational player” and makes this trade a worthwhile gamble.  Blanco will play in AAA Syracuse unless injuries occur, and is likely to be added to Washington’s roster when the major league rosters expand in September as extra roster depth.

Overall Grade:  C+…. Solid depth move but unlikely to make much of any impact
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“Tip of the Fedora” -> I would like to give a big “Tip of the Fedora” to all my new fans on Facebook. NatsGM on facebook has received many new “Likes” just in the past week.  Thanks for all the support and please continue to spread the word.

Thanks again for all the great questions, please keep them coming.  If I use one of your questions in a future column, you will win a NatsGM T-shirt.  Please follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, find me on Facebook at NatsGM, and email me at NationalsGM@gmail.com

May 8, 2011

“Name Withheld” from Gaithersburg, MD -> “Is adding another team for the playoffs a good idea for baseball?

Tough question… I must admit that I was against expanding the playoffs when they did it in 1994, as I am always a person that wants the playoffs to reward excellence.  To take a cheap shot, I feel like the biggest flaw with both the NBA and NHL is the amount of teams that make the playoffs, thus diluting their regular season product and hindering interest.  The Men’s NCAA basketball tournament is slowly reaching that same point as well, but I digress.

That said, I believe the wild card to be the single best decision that Commissioner Bud Selig has made in his career (selfishly I might say returning baseball to DC) as it has expanded interest in the game and allowed middle and small market teams a greater chance to compete.  I would support one final expansion, to 5 playoff teams per league, with the 3 division winners and 2 wild cards, as I believe it would keep fans interested in baseball, especially in September when football starts, and continue to give small market teams a greater chance to make the postseason .

The trouble I have with this expansion is in the details: How would the wild card “playoff” go?  Tom Boswell mentioned this as well in his chat (Washington Post Sports 4/25/11) a few weeks ago and I think he nailed it.  Do the wild card teams play a one-game “winner take all” playoff or a three game series?  One game seems rather abrupt after playing 162 to reach the playoffs, yet a three game series places the division winners at a disadvantage of sitting around for close to a week.  Baseball is the ultimate game of routine and a lengthy break would not reward the division winners for their excellence during the regular season.  Also, what happens if perhaps a tie record occurs between “2^nd wild card teams”?  That would likely force a one-game playoff, further delaying the time between games for the division champions.  While I believe these are problems that can be ultimately resolved, until they are, I hesitate to fully endorse expanding the baseball playoffs.

Josh from Washington D.C. -> “When is a reasonable expectation for the Nats to make the playoffs?”

Great question Josh, thanks for writing.  I get this question in different forms almost daily.  As I wrote back in February, I thought the Nationals would win about 75 games in 2011.  While the Nationals have played better than that so far, I think with the long-term injury to Zimmerman and some natural regression with the pitching staff, I think 75 wins is still a good guess.

2012 should produce more victories with the continued development of the young players (Espinosa, Desmond, Zimmermann, Storen, etc.) as well as Stephen Strasburg’s return, plus the potential additions of Derek Norris and Bryce Harper in the 2^nd half of the season.  I think Washington should expect the Nationals to play .500 baseball next season and we should begin to hear baseball writers talking about the National’s 2013 breakout campaign.

But 2013 is the reasonable expectation when fans and the Nationals should expect to compete for the playoffs and they should contend for most of the rest of the decade.    It is almost impossible to project that far out, but their lineup could look like this:

“Hypothetical 2013 Lineup”

2B- “Free Agent/ Prospect”

LF- Jayson Werth

RF- Bryce Harper

3B- Ryan Zimmerman

1B- “Free Agent”

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C- W. Ramos /Derek Norris

CF- Ian Desmond

SP- Stephen Strasburg

That’s a playoff team…. Trust me, 2013 will be here before we know it.  Climb aboard before the bandwagon gets full.

Warren by email -> “Just about one month from June’s Major League Baseball draft, do you have any predictions for the Nats 1^st round selections?”

Good question!  I will continue to talk more about the draft in the coming weeks.  Also, I will be live blogging the first two days of the MLB draft on June 6^th and 7^th, so I hope you join me for that.

As I have mentioned a few times on this site, the Nationals will select #6, #23, and #34 in the first round next month.  GM Mike Rizzo has a reputation of drafting college players over high school players, and drafting pitching and up the middle bats early.

At #6, the Nationals are going to have a nice selection of players to choose from:  I expect UCLA RHP Gerrit Cole and Rice 3B Anthony Rendon to go #1 and #2, in some order.  From there, the next four picks (#3-#6) should come from the group of HS OF Bubba Starling, HS RHP Dylan Bundy, UVA LHP Danny Hultzen, Georgia Tech LHP Jed Bradley, UCLA RHP Trevor Bauer, Vanderbilt RHP Sonny Gray, and Texas RHP Taylor Jungmann.

GM Mike Rizzo likes to stockpile left-handed pitching (who doesn’t) and Hultzen and Bradley are likely the top two pitchers to choose from.  I expect Hultzen to go between picks 3-5, likely #3 to Arizona, which would leave Jed Bradley for the Nationals.  My guess on 5/7/11… Georgia Tech LHP Jed Bradley

At #23, I still expect the Nationals to be looking for college starting pitching, both because it is the strength of this draft and the preference of the Nationals.  Likely there will be some nice choices still left on the board such as: Kentucky RHP Alex Meyer, Coastal Carolina RHP Anthony Meo, Oregon LHP Tyler Anderson, TCU LHP Matt Purke, and Connecticut RHP Matt Barnes.  I think Meyer would be the pick if available, but I expect he will improve his stock between now and the draft.  My guess on 5/7/11… Oregon LHP Tyler Anderson

At #34, if the Nationals go with two college pitchers at #6 and #23, I would expect the club to look at a hitter, all things being equal.  Some players projected to go in this area include: North Carolina SS Levi Michael, Utah 1B CJ Cron, Vanderbilt 3B Jason Esposito and Miami-Dade CF Brian Goodwin.  Of that group, my favorite is Brian Goodwin, who I was fortunate enough to watch extensively last summer on Cape Cod with the Harwich Mariners.  Goodwin was the 3^rd best prospect I saw on Cape Cod last summer, behind only Jed Bradley (mentioned earlier) and Arizona St. SS Deven Marrero, projected to be a top ten selection in 2012.  Goodwin has the athleticism and skills to stay in center field, and while raw, could be a special talent in a few years.  My guess on 5/7/11… Miami-Dade CF Brian Goodwin

* A Big Happy Mother’s Day “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to my Mom… Love you and thank you for always being there for me.  Also I want to wish a Happy Mother’s Day to all Moms everywhere.

Thanks again for all the great questions, please keep them coming.  If I use one of your questions in a future column, you will win a NatsGM T-shirt.  Please follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, find me on Facebook at NatsGM, and email me at NationalsGM@gmail.com

May 6, 2011

As I watched Nyjer Morgan come to bat for the Brewers the other day, it suddenly struck me that the projected long-term center fielder for the Nationals three months ago, is now a platoon player in Milwaukee, traded for a decent but unexciting prospect and $50,000 late this spring.  GM Mike Rizzo stated he wanted to give Nyjer an opportunity during spring training to show he had improved and was ready to be the center fielder of the future for the club.  A slow first week sunk his chances as he posted mediocre numbers overall this spring (.241 AVG, .328 OBP, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 9 RUNS, 6 SB, 3 CS).

But the Nationals gave up so quickly on Nyjer that the front office simply must not have believed he was the future in center field well before spring training began.  You simply do not see teams trade starting players in spring training, especially for such a relatively minor return.  Fair enough, the Nationals have moved forward and Nyjer can thus be considered THE PAST in terms of center field.

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Recently, Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com and other prominent baseball writers have mentioned that “the Nationals are seeking an upgrade over Rick Ankiel for center field”.  Besides Ankiel, THE PRESENT options to play center field are limited to Jerry Hairston (with the team already), Roger Bernadina and Corey Brown both with AAA Syracuse.  What do we know about these 4 players?

Rick Ankiel -> It seems rather strange to me that the Nationals decided to give Ankiel the starting job, seemingly under the pretense to see if he could handle the job on a full-time basis and then let rumors begin to swirl that one month into the season you are searching for an upgrade.   From my perspective, Ankiel has been just about as advertised:  incredibly strong arm in the outfield but otherwise mediocre defensively, and offensively he possesses some pop and can hit right handed pitchers reasonably well but struggles mightily verses lefty pitching.  Ankiel should be serving as a one year patch in center field as a prospect matriculates in AAA or in a strict platoon where he only faces right-handed pitching, not auditioning as the future at the position.

Jerry Hairston Jr. -> Nice super utility player, but far too old to play every day and is currently being exposed trying to play 3B daily in the absence of Ryan Zimmerman (please get back soon!).  He is not the answer in center field.

Roger Bernadina -> Why is Roger Bernadina not being given a chance to sink or swim as the everyday center fielder in 2011?  While I am not Roger’s biggest fan, I think he showed enough with the bat (.246/ .307/.384) and with the glove last year that he should be receiving regular at-bats in the outfield this season in Washington, not AAA Syracuse.  The sheer fact that Roger is playing in Syracuse tells me that the Nationals do not see him as a future starter, but more in the role of outfield bench player.

Corey Brown -> Brown was impressive in AA in 2010, posting a .320/.415/.502 in 386 plate appearances after being demoted from AAA. Brown has great speed and quality defensive skills, but has struggled with strikeouts in his career.  Brown has started slowly in his second attempt at AAA, posting .187/.274/.267 thru 24 games.  Brown profiles as a bench outfielder because of his strikeout totals and is likely not the answer in center going forward.

So what can we conclude?  That the present options the Nationals have are not long-term solutions.

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So what should the Nationals and GM Mike Rizzo do about THE FUTURE in center field?

Unfortunately this upcoming draft is unlikely to provide the future.  The top two prospects are currently LSU’s Mikie Mahtook and South Carolina’s Jackie Bradley Jr. and both come with question marks.  Scouts have long questioned if either would be a major league quality defender in center field and unfortunately, if they do not play center field, they would not profile offensively as a corner outfielder.  Mahtook is currently projected to be drafted among picks #11-#20 to a team convinced he stays in center field.  Bradley Jr. recently came down with an injury and was sliding down draft boards because long-term questions about his ultimate position.

So if the draft cannot provide the solution, the answer must be either a minor league prospect or a current major leaguer.  I think I have solved the problem:  What if I told you that I knew of a 25 year old (26 in September) with a career batting line of .263/.303/.411 in more than 750 at-bats with tremendous range and a powerful throwing arm.  What if I also told you he was under team control through 2015 and available cheap… would you be interested?  Would the Nationals be interested? Darn right they would!  The answer to the organization’s biggest long-term question is right under their nose: Ian Desmond.

Desmond possesses all the skills to be an outstanding defensive center fielder, but his difficulty fielding grounders and throwing rapidly to first causes him to make too many errors to be an everyday shortstop in the major leagues.  In a strange way, it is a compliment to the rest of the shortstops in baseball: they have such soft hands and wonderful hand-eye coordination that when it is not elite, perhaps as is the case with Desmond, it becomes obvious.  But Desmond’s ability to catch, throw, and range to get the baseball are unquestioned, the most important qualities for any center fielder.

Moving Desmond to center field solves that difficult riddle and allows you to move Danny Espinosa back to his more natural position at shortstop.  Finding a long-term solution at second base is far easier than filling a long-term solution in center field, not to mention this makes the team better defensively at two key positions up the middle.  I think if Desmond does not show strong improvement defensively and cut down on his error totals by the all-star break, you will begin to hear more discussions about moving Desmond from shortstop.  By no means am I rooting against said improvement, but I think the best thing for the National’s future is Ian Desmond patrolling center field between Jayson Werth in left field and Bryce Harper in right field, with Danny Espinosa the starting shortstop.

Expect to hear more about Desmond’s position switch in the upcoming weeks, and maybe that’s not such a bad thing.  The Future in center field should be Ian Desmond.

* A big “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to my webmaster and technology sensei, Tim… This website would not exist without your help and guidance.  Thank you so much!

* Finally, I want to encourage you to continue to send me questions for my weekly “Questions from the Readers” column.  Please leave your questions for me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, email me at NationalsGM@gmail.com, or on Facebook at NatsGM.  If I use one of your questions in my column, you will win a NatsGM t-shirt.