Preferred Anonymous –> “Dear NatsGM, where you been?”

Yes, I apologize for my absence the past week, unfortunately three forces were to blame: one part writer’s block, one part preparing for next week’s draft (look forward to plenty of draft coverage the next two weeks) and one part I went on a short family vacation.  I expect to resume my typical every other day writing schedule going forward.

I encourage you to continue sending me your questions and feedback, either in the comments section after each column, though Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, on Facebook search “NatsGM”, and email me at NationalsGM@gmail.com.

The Professor from Bethesda, MD -> “What would the All-Time Washington Nationals team look like?”

Interesting question, Professor… (and yes, this person’s email name was “The Professor”)  As per your question, I limited my search to the six previous seasons of the Washington Nationals (2005/2006/2007/2008/2009/2010) and reviewed the statistics for each player to find the best season at each position, and thus, an “All-Time Washington Nationals” team.

C- Brian Schneider, 2005 -> 369 ABs, .268/.330/.409 10 HRs and 44 RBI

1B- Nick Johnson, 2006 -> 500 ABs, .290/.428/.520 23 HRs and 77 RBI

2B- Ronnie Belliard, 2007 -> 511 ABs, .290/.332/.427 11 HRs and 58 RBI

SS- Cristian Guzman, 2008 -> 579 ABs, .316/.345/.440 9 HRs and 55 RBI

3B- Ryan Zimmerman, 2010 -> 525 ABs, .307/.388/.510 25 HRs and 85 RBIs

LF- Alfonso Soriano, 2006 -> 647 ABs, .277/.351/.560 46 HRs, 41 SBs and 95 RBI

CF- Brad Wilkerson, 2005 -> 565 ABs, .248/.351/.405 11 HRs and 57 RBI

RF- Jose Guillen, 2005 -> 551 ABs, .283/.338/.479 24 HRs and 76 RBI

DH- Adam Dunn, 2009 -> 546 ABs, .267/.398/.529 38 HRs and 105 RBI

SP1- John Patterson, 2005 -> 198.1 IP, 9-7, 3.13 ERA, 1.195 WHIP and 185 Ks

SP2- Livan Hernandez, 2010 -> 211.2 IP, 10-12, 3.66 ERA, 1.323 WHIP, and 114 Ks

SP3- Esteban Loaiza, 2005 -> 217 IP, 12-10, 3.77 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 173 Ks

RP1- Chad Cordero, 2005 -> 74.1 IP, 2-4, 1.82 ERA, 0.969 WHIP, 47 Saves and 61 Ks

RP2- Hector Carrasco, 2005 -> 88.1 IP, 5-4, 2.04 ERA, 1.098 WHIP, 2 Saves and 75 Ks

RP3- Sean Burnett, 2010 -> 63 IP, 1-7, 2.14 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 3 Saves and 62 Ks

What really sticks out when looking at this All-Time team, the Nationals have had poor production from Catcher, Second Base, and Center Field the entire existence of the organization.  I think the combination of Wilson Ramos and Derek Norris at Catcher and Danny Espinosa at Second Base should be long-term solutions to these problems, but it further highlights the need for some resolution in center field.

timhurt via Twitter -> “June 6^th is around the corner, what does your ideal draft board look like?”

With the draft just one week away (quick plug: I will be live blogging the Day 1 and Day 2 of the MLB draft Monday and Tuesday next week, please join me here at NatsGM.com) I figured this would be a good time to do my first mock draft of the Top 10, along with the National’s selections at #23 and #34.

NatsGM MLB Mock Draft Volume 1:

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#1 Pittsburgh ->UCLA RHP Gerrit Cole

If reports are correct, the Pirates are choosing between Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, and Danny Hultzen for the top pick.  I think the potential of a long-term shoulder problem with Rendon will be enough to have Pittsburgh shy away and pass on him, leaving them to select between the higher ceiling player in Gerrit Cole and the higher floor player in Danny Hultzen.  Teams should favor ceiling at the top of the draft and I think the Pirates will as well.

#2 Seattle ->Rice 3B Anthony Rendon

The rumors have Seattle wanting a bat and I think they run to the podium if Anthony Rendon is still available.  If Rendon goes 1-1 to Pittsburgh, this selection would get very interesting, as I think they pass on Starling’s price tag… perhaps they would take Florida HS SS Francisco Lindor?

#3 Arizona ->UVA LHP Danny Hultzen

Assuming it goes Cole and Rendon, in some order #1 and #2, I think the easiest projection in the Top 10 would be Hultzen to Arizona.  The Diamondbacks drafted Danny in the 10^th round three years ago, and have been enamored with him ever since.

#4 Baltimore ->HS RHP Dylan Bundy

I have tried to contact friends I made within the Orioles and they are saying nothing about this pick, except they have no signability concerns.  My brain is telling me they would prefer a college starter, seemingly closer to the majors like Trevor Bauer, Taylor Jungmann, or Matt Barnes but with how coy the Orioles are acting, I think they take the best player available, which is Dylan Bundy.

#5 KC ->HS OF Bubba Starling

The Royals have been floating rumors that they want a college player that would arrive more in line with Hosmer, Moustakas, Duffy, Montgomery, and the rest of their emerging prospects.  Sources have said that they have not seen Starling this spring, yet they were all over him last fall and Starling likely has the most star potential in this entire draft.  He has risk, especially with his hit tool, but he could be a franchise player/elite superstar type talent: those types rarely get past the top five.

#6 Washington ->UCLA RHP Trevor Bauer

I think the Nationals are in a good position drafting 6^th this year, as I think there are a top six players  (Cole, Rendon, Starling, Bundy, Hultzen, and Bauer) then  some drop off.  I expect these players to be drafted as the top six in some order: I believe the Nationals sit back and select whoever is left, preferring a college pitcher if given a choice.

#7 Arizona ->UConn RHP Matt Barnes

This selection is unprotected as Arizona failed to sign Barret Loux in 2010 (smart decision), meaning the Diamondbacks must sign this player or receive no compensation in 2012.  Thus I expect they will make a pre-arranged draft day deal with the player they select, leading me to believe they will draft a college pitcher from the group of Matt Barnes, Taylor Jungmann, Sonny Gray, and Jed Bradley.

#8 Cleveland ->HS SS Francisco Lindor

If Trevor Bauer somehow was available here, I think he would be a slam dunk pick.  I am not very confident in this projection, as the conventional wisdom has the Indians selecting a college pitcher that can be quick to the majors and more reasonable in terms of signing bonus.  That said, Lindor is a great prospect that can stay at shortstop in the majors and has some legitimate pop from the middle infield.  At pick #8 or anywhere on down, some team is going to get quite a value, and I project Lindor’s talent too much for Cleveland to pass on.

#9 Chicago Cubs ->HS RHP Archie Bradley

They have consistently been linked to high school talent, either Starling if he slips or Archie Bradley.  Bradley is a strong prospect with a fastball that hit 101mph in his state championship game and rumors that he is rising up draft boards from mid-first round to the #8-#12 area.  He would be a tremendous addition to the Cubs farm system.

#10 San Diego ->Texas RHP Taylor Jungmann

San Diego’s pick is unprotected as the Padres failed to sign RHP Karsten Whitson from the 2010 draft (likely a bad move, Whitson is excellent and a likely top 10 pick in 2013) so they must sign this selection or receive no compensation, similarly to Arizona at #7.  I would expect the Padres to focus on cost with this choice, and target one of the many solid college pitchers.  Likely a deal will be arranged before this selection is made, I think they choose the safest of the college starters left, and Jungmann has been a workhorse for Texas the past three years and pitched well in the College World Series as a freshman two years ago.  He should be a solid mid-rotation starter for many years and a great value pick at #10.

#23 Washington -> Miami-Dade CF Brian Goodwin

Obviously projecting this late in the 1^st round is difficult if not impossible without inside information, but I expect that if Kentucky RHP Alex Meyer is somehow available at #23, he will be the selection (highly unlikely).  If not, I think the Nationals will be tempted if one of the college starters slips to here, or if UConn OF George Springer is available as well.  This is also rather unlikely, which is the reason I believe GM Mike Rizzo will look to add an up-the-middle player, and the most talented available is Miami-Dade CF Brian Goodwin.  Goodwin started as a freshman in 2010 at North Carolina and was solid on Cape Cod last summer, but was dismissed from the Tar Heels for a school infraction.  This forced Goodwin to transfer, which he did to a community college to allow himself to be draft eligible this year.  He is raw with the bat, but has the skills to stay in center field and become a future leadoff hitter.  I am a big fan and hope the organization has the good fortune to add him at #23.

#34 Washington -> Coastal Carolina RHP Anthony Meo

The Nationals should see some nice talent available at #34, which is the first selection in the compensation round.  I think GM Mike Rizzo would hope that a college starter is available here, especially if they take a hitter at #6 or #23.  I have mentioned Oregon LHP Tyler Anderson in previous columns, and he would be a nice choice here, and there have been plenty of rumors linking the Nationals with Georgia HS OF Larry Greene, known for his tremendous raw power.  But assuming the Nationals take a pitcher at #6 and a hitter at #23, I think they will look at pitching, specifically Coastal Carolina RHP Anthony Meo, an underrated pitcher with a dynamite 92-95mph fastball and a strong breaking pitch, though he is somewhat raw and will need development time in the minor leagues.  However, he has two plus pitches and that makes him a strong value at this point in the draft.

Thanks everyone for the great questions, please keep them coming!

This “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to all our service men and women on this Memorial Day, who put their lives on the line to protect our freedoms and way of life.  My Grandfather enlisted at 17 years old in the Navy and was brave enough to have been at Pearl Harbor December 7, 1941 and lived to tell about it.  I miss you Pop Pop!

Matt Stairs and his place on the National’s 25-man roster is an often discussed topic for many fans, as the majority of his value comes from things we cannot tangibly see, specifically his presence in the clubhouse.  Clearly he must be a terrific man and wonderful mentor, as there is not one other 43-year old pinch hitter currently in the major leagues and his current battling line of .095/.296/.095 is not impressing anyone.  He provides little defensive value, as he has played fewer than 125 innings in the field each of the last three seasons, and has only played 8 innings thus far this year.  While he does have a unique talent as a pinch hitter, even the best pinch hitters bat about .240 and only once per game.

When Rick Ankiel returns from the disabled list in the next 7-10 days, the Nationals are going to have to make a roster decision, likely between sending IF Brian Bixler back to AAA Syracuse or releasing Matt Stairs, as I believe OF Roger Bernadina has forced his way onto the roster.  It is my strong opinion the Nationals need to keep Bernadina in center field for the next 60-90 games and let him determine if he is the future in center field, a part of the future off the bench, or someone not in the National’s plans.  With Roger in center field most days, this will leave Mike Morse, Laynce Nix, and Rick Ankiel fighting for at-bats in left field and around the diamond.

So the question is whether or not Matt Stairs provides enough value in his extremely limited role on the field combined with his intangibles off the field rather than another player, either Brian Bixler or someone in AAA Syracuse, that would be a better use of the roster spot?  With the youth on the roster this season, I am convinced Jim Riggleman appreciates having the veteran presence of Matt Stairs in the locker room.  I also think with the many close games the Nationals should expect the rest of this year, his pinch hitting skills should prove to be a nice asset over time.   I agree with the organization, his value in the clubhouse and pinch hitting is more valuable than the other options the Nationals currently have for that spot.  Players occupying the last bench spot on a National League team often are specialists (i.e. someone with speed, a strong defender, a platoon hitter, etc.) though I do wish a rebuilding club like the Nationals would have a youngster with potential to occupy that roster spot rather than a 43-year old pinch hitter/clubhouse leader.

When Ryan Zimmerman is ready to return in a few weeks, Stairs is likely to encounter a roster squeeze that could see him on the outside looking in.  That said, next week when Rick Ankiel is ready to return, expect the Nationals front office to make the right choice, and send Bixler back to AAA Syracuse and keep Matt Stairs.

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This “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to my wife “Mrs. NatsGM”.  She is so encouraging of this venture and incredibly tolerant of my obsession with sports and baseball.  Thanks for all your support, I love you…

Please follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, find me on Facebook at NatsGM, and email me at NationalsGM@gmail.com

EdatHomeDad via Twitter -> “Dear NatsGM, who will hit .500 first, the Nats or the Orioles?”

Thanks for the question “EdatHomeDad” and I would like to encourage everyone to follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom and leave your questions for me there.  I decided to answer this question in a “Dear NatsGM” column as I could not sufficiently answer it in 140 characters…

As I type this, the Nationals have a record of 19-21 while the Orioles are currently 19-20.  With the way both teams have been playing this season, I would not be surprised if either team spent some time this summer with a .500 record.  That said, I expect both teams will be sellers at the trade deadline this summer(especially the Orioles who have plenty of veterans on one-year contracts) which should hinder their ability to win games later this season.  I predicted 75-87 for the Nationals prior to the season and I think I will stick with that prediction as of today.  I thought the Orioles would be slightly better than that prior to the start of the season, and I still believe they finish with a better record, though barely, than the Nationals, with 77-78 wins.

As for longer-term, I think Nationals fans should expect them to play .500 baseball in 2012, as the youngsters will have another season of experience, the front office will have another winter to add a key free agent or two, and the expected return of Stephen Strasburg should push them to 81 victories.  And 2013 should be the season that Nationals fans anticipate being in the thick of a pennant race with a strong chance of making the playoffs.

Longer-term projections for the Orioles are more difficult to forecast, as the biggest impediment to their success frankly is the division they play in.  With the financial superiority of Boston and New York, and the terrific front offices in Tampa Bay and Toronto, the Orioles can be largely successful with personnel decisions over the next two seasons and likely still not win 81 games.  I do think the Orioles will have above average starting pitching in 2012 with Matusz, Britton, Guthrie, and Arrieta but I worry that the team will not have enough offense to compete with the heavyweights in their division.  I hope to be proven wrong, but I think the Orioles will likely be about the same in 2012 and 2013 as they will be this season, competitive but not quite a .500 team.

Thus, in the short-term, I think the Orioles have the better chance at .500 this season, but longer-term, the future seems brighter with the Nationals.

Rob from Cotuit, MA ->”Dear NatsGM, in your mother’s day post you discussed watching the CCBL last summer.  With the CCBL rosters set and opening day right around the corner, any predictions for this summer?”

Great question!  Like there was any chance I would not answer this question (I am a complete sucker for the Cape Cod League)… As for making predictions, it is nearly impossible as so many things will change between the preliminary rosters and when the season begins (College World Series, Team USA, injuries, etc.).  With that said I thought this would be a nice opportunity to highlight a few players on each team and attempt to give a season preview.

East Division

Brewster -> Brewster should again be a difficult team to beat in 2011, with Drew Martinez and Andy Burns returning this summer to lead the top of the lineup.   The outfield will be rounded out by talented players Cohl Walla and Andrew Toles.  I do worry that as strong as the hitting appears for the Whitecaps, I fear they could struggle on the mound.  LHP Jordan John is solid at the top of the rotation, but who will step forward to round out the staff.  If they can find some solid starting pitching, this should be a strong sleeper club this summer.

Players to Watch: Memphis CF Drew Martinez, Arizona INF Andy Burns, Texas OF Cohl Walla, Oklahoma LHP Jordan John, and Tennessee OF Andrew Toles

Chatham -> Interesting roster the Anglers have assembled for 2011.  They should be solid at the top of the rotation with RHP Hudson Randall and RHP Buck Farmer, accompanied by the underrated RHP Chris Munnelly.  However, the lineup does not impress me as I do not see who will provide the power.  I like catcher Matt Roberts, and Stephen Perez will handle the job defensively at shortstop but I worry how this team will score runs.  Color me skeptical on this year’s Anglers.

Players to Watch: UCLA CF Beau Amaral, Florida RHP Hudson Randall, North Carolina Catcher Matt Roberts, Miami SS Stephen Perez, and Georgia Tech RHP Buck Farmer

Harwich -> What immediately jumps out to me with the 2011 Mariners are how many talented freshman they have on their roster; Kevin Gausman, Brian Ragira and Austin Wilson might be the best three freshman on the Cape this summer (especially Gausman!).  The Mariners are loaded in the outfield with Ragira, Wilson, Brian Goodwin (likely a top 35 selection this June) and Jabari Henry, another exceptional athlete.  The pitching staff looks a little light to me, but otherwise, this is a very solid roster Harwich has assembled.

Players to Watch: Louisiana State RHP Kevin Gausman, Stanford OF Brian Ragira, Stanford OF Austin Wilson, Miami-Dade CF Brian Goodwin, and Louisiana State SS Austin Nola

Orleans -> The Firebirds have a solid current roster, highlighted by some solid pitching with Michael Wacha, Adam Plutko (watch him, he has good stuff), Matt Sisto, and Kenny Long.  The lineup has some solid names but I think is likely a little thinner than manager Kelly Nicholson might prefer.  This club should have plenty of pitching, the question is, do they have enough hitting?  We shall see.

Players to Watch: Texas A&M RHP Michael Wacha, Stanford OF Jake Stewart, UCLA RHP Adam Plutko, Florida State 1B Jayce Boyd, and Vanderbilt SS Anthony Gomez

Yarmouth-Dennis -> As is the case for the last decade, Y-D looks poised for another successful summer.  I am curious how many of these players will reach the Cape this summer, as I suspect many will be invited to play with Team USA.  But if Y-D somehow keeps a good portion of their current roster, I see them as the team to beat in the Eastern Division.

Players to Watch: Stanford RHP Mark Appel, Stanford SS Kenny Diekroeger, Florida Catcher Mike Zunino, Stanford IF Stephen Piscotty, and Florida LHP/DH Brian Johnson

West Division

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Players to Watch: Florida Catcher Austin Maddox, Florida SS Nolan Fontana, Auburn INF Zach Alvord, and TCU OF Josh Elander

Cotuit -> Cotuit, as usual, has a strong preseason roster, though I do wonder if Cory Spangenberg will ever see the Cape as he is projected to go in the Top 20-25 picks in this June’s draft and Deven Marrero will likely be invited to Team USA.  However, the Kettleers have plenty of solid hitters and some excellent freshman pitching with potential.  Coach Roberts should have another solid year, and if he can keep Spangenberg and Marrero, watch out!

Players to Watch: IF Indian River St. Cory Spangenberg, SS Arizona St. Deven Marrero, Oregon 1B/RHP Ryon Healy, Oregon Catcher/OF Stefan Sabol, and Vanderbilt OF Michael Yastrzemski

Falmouth -> The 2011 Commodores are younger and more inexperienced than in previous years, but Rice RHP John Simms is an excellent young arm, Shane Rowland is a solid catcher, and returning OFs Christian Jones and Kyle Von Tungeln should steady the offense.  This roster looks a bit weaker with “top-end talent” but I would not be surprised if the Commodores play well as a team and have a successful summer.

Players to Watch: Rice RHP John Simms, Oregon OF Christian Jones, Miami Catcher Shane Rowland, and Rice RHP Tyler Duffey

Hyannis -> While this roster is not stacked with many recognizable names, trust me, this team has some real talent and some interesting players to watch.  I am a huge fan of Jacksonville CF Dan Gulbransen (trust me, watch him this summer) and his teammate AB Walker is an impressive looking raw athlete.  Cole Frenzel should steady the infield and I would expect Dylan Floro to head the rotation.  I like this roster more than most people.

Players to Watch: Cal St. Fullerton RHP Dylan Floro, Jacksonville CF Dan Gulbransen (love this kid!), Arizona INF Cole Frenzel, and Arizona OF Joey Rickard

Wareham -> Bluntly, I know fewer of the players on this roster than any other, but the strong connection of Wareham and Georgia Tech should provide a solid nucleus for the club and Wareham typically does a nice job recruiting some “underrated” pitching each summer.  I assume this club will struggle in 2011, but I would not be surprised to see a couple Yellow Jackets breakout this summer and push this club higher in the standings than I might expect.

Players to Watch: Northwestern RHP Luke Farrell (son of Toronto Blue Jays manager John Farrell), Vanderbilt RHP Jack Armstrong, and Georgia Tech 1B/LHP Daniel Palka

Projected Order of Finish:

East Division:

1) Yarmouth-Dennis

2) Harwich

3) Brewster

4) Orleans

5) Chatham

West Division:

1) Cotuit

2) Bourne

3) Hyannis

4) Falmouth

5) Wareham

This “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to my sister, and her blog http://www.shannonsmaddfamily.com/. While her blog has nothing to do with baseball, she provides an excellent and often humorous look at raising four children.  I hope everyone gives it a read…

Thanks again for all the wonderful questions, please continue sending them to me.  If I use one of your questions in a future “Dear NatsGM” column, you will win a NatsGM T-shirt.  Please follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, find me on Facebook at NatsGM, and email me at NationalsGM@gmail.com

May 14, 2011

Early Saturday morning, the Nationals decided to designate RHP Brian Broderick for assignment and replace him in the bullpen with RHP Cole Kimball from AAA Syracuse.  Broderick, 24, was a Rule V draft choice from the St. Louis Cardinals back in December.  In 11 appearances this season with the Nationals, he allowed 16 hits in 12 1/3 innings with a 6.57 ERA, walking three and striking out four batters. As a Rule V selection, he must first clear waivers and be offered back to the Cardinals before the Nationals could send him to Syracuse.  Broderick’s numbers are not pretty, but he showed flashes of talent and did produce an extremely impressive 60% ground ball rate.  I would be surprised if a team did not claim Broderick (perhaps the Nationals can work a trade) and I would be shocked if the Cardinals did not welcome him back as they have had a myriad of injuries with their pitchers this season.

Cole Kimball, 25, was ranked the 7^th best National’s prospect by Baseball America during the off-season, possessing a fastball that he throws up to 97 mph, a devastating splitter, and a decent but inconsistent curveball.  He was a 12^th round pick out of the Centenary in 2006 as the top collegiate arm available in New Jersey, possessing the reputation as a power arm and a thrower rather than a pitcher.  I should briefly pause and give credit to the National’s minor league development staff on a job well done: Kimball was a later round draft pick with potential that the National’s developed into a power reliever with back of the bullpen quality stuff and moxie.  Kimball began his professional career as a starter, but was permanently moved to the bullpen two seasons ago and has thrived ever since.  In the past two years, Kimball is 9-1 with a 1.85 ERA and 23 saves in 69 appearances between AAA Syracuse, AA Harrisburg and High-A Potomac.  This season, Kimball has not allowed a run in 13 2/3 innings with AAA Syracuse, striking out 14 while walking 8.

This move can only be seen as a positive in my eyes.   Broderick possesses a major league quality arm but will likely never be more than an extra guy in the bullpen or, in a perfect world, as a 5^th starter, while Kimball projects as a late inning reliever on a successful club.  Kimball was pitching so well in Syracuse that he forced the Nationals to bring him to Washington, placing the Nationals in the difficult position of choosing between Broderick and Henry Rodriguez for the last slot in the bullpen.  While Broderick has slightly better numbers, Rodriguez was acquired in the Josh Willingham trade with Oakland, possesses a fastball near 100mph, and has late-inning reliever potential.  Both Broderick and Rodriguez are likely to be claimed but Rodriguez has the greater potential ceiling, thus the Nationals decided Broderick was the one to go.  Another excellent decision by the organization, and a nice statement to the depth the Nationals are developing in their minor league system.

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“Tip of the Fedora” -> Goes out to Mark Zuckerman of NatsInsider.com.  Mark runs an excellent site and was kind enough to add NatsGM to his Natosphere this week.  Much appreciated Mark, thank you.

Please follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, find me on Facebook at NatsGM, and email me at NationalsGM@gmail.com