THE NatsGM Mailbag – May 2015 Edition

Posted on May 28, 2015 by Ryan Sullivan

The other day as I was reading my email I made a startling realization – I have not done a NatsGM Mailbag in over two years. In other words, the last time I answered questions directly from the audience Kris Bryant was still in college, people did not know who Meghan Trainor was and LeBron James was still playing hoops in South Beach.

Therefore due to the overwhelming and pent-up demand, here is Part-1 of a 2-Part NatsGM Mailbag, the May 2015 Edition.

@DAtkinsonOU via Twitter -> “What kind of future do you think Mike Yastrzemski has as a Baltimore Oriole?”

I have long been a fan of Yaz ever since watching him play for the Cotuit Kettleers in the Cape Cod League a few summers ago, remembering him as a “baseball rat” who maximized his talent and every situation presented to him. Fast forward to last summer and I had the opportunity to watch him extensively for both Frederick and Bowie, and his “80” Want now also included some interesting baseball skills.

Yastrzemski has good speed and a fringe-average but accurate throwing arm, allowing him to profile well in left field defensively but below-average in center and right field. Offensively he has healthy bat speed, a mature approach at the plate and good contact skills, allowing him to pepper the gaps with hits and pull the occasional home run. These skills, along with his insatiable desire to maximize his talents, give him an excellent chance to carve out a major league career.

This leads back to your original question – His lack of an above-average skill, besides heart, limits his future to a ceiling as the strong-side player in a left field platoon or more likely, a career as a long-term backup outfielder. While this might sound slightly underwhelming, this is a tremendous find for the Orioles in the 14th round of the 2013 draft. I would expect him to reach Baltimore some time in 2015 and establish himself in the majors next year.

@SeanHoganVT via Twitter -> “Who is your favorite Nats prospect that you’d previously written off? Aka who is your favorite guy you initially missed on?”

These are some great questions – The immediate and easy answer for the first question is Reynaldo Lopez. I saw Lopez in 1 of the 2 starts he made for Hagerstown before his demotion to Auburn last summer and while he had a good arm and some obvious tools, I thought he was a possible future major league reliever. Fast forward a few mechanical adjustments and now Lopez consistently sits 96-97mph, with a quality curveball and changeup. Perhaps he still ends up in the bullpen, but he will be an impact reliever, nothing like what I saw on first glance last year.

On the flip side, two players I have squarely missed on are former Nats 1st round picks Chris Marrero and Brian Goodwin. At draft time and early in his minor league career, I saw Marrero as a solid #5 or #6 hitter who could play passable defense at either third base or left field. Unfortunately he had injury issues which sapped his limited athleticism and his power did not translate as he moved up through the minors.
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I am still clinging to hope with Goodwin, who is only 24-years-old and has the speed and defensive skills to carve out a career as a bench outfielder. But when I first watched Goodwin in the Cape, I was infatuated with his power and speed combination from a player who could stay in center field. His barrel skills have lagged behind as he’s reached the upper levels of the minors and the strikeout rate is alarming, making it difficult to believe he will reach his ceiling as a second-division starter in center field.

James from Email –> “Give us a few minor league prospects who are not getting enough ‘prospect love’”?

The first name that immediately comes to mind is Orioles third baseman Jomar Reyes, whom I will discuss in greater detail tomorrow in Part-2. Another player in the Orioles’ system is catcher Jonah Heim, who is an excellent defensive catcher who possesses a strong arm and the ability to switch-hit. I think the bat could allow him to develop into a starting big league catcher in several years.

Wilmer Difo

The next name to come to mind would be current Washington National infielder Wilmer Difo, who has a chance to be an above-average hitter and defender at shortstop, perhaps as soon as next season. But we have talked about him extensively on the site and on the Podcast, and I would think Difo has begun to receive plenty of attention since his promotion to Washington. A sleeper in the Nationals’ system is right-handed pitcher Nick Pivetta, a large but raw pitcher with a low-90s fastball and two decent off-speed pitches currently playing for High-A Potomac. Pivetta does not have the ceiling of teammates Lucas Giolito or Reynaldo Lopez, but he has a good chance to become a back-end starter in the big leagues.

Let’s dig a little deeper – The Houston Astros have an intriguing hitter in Double-A Tyler White, who is currently hitting .305/.463/.421 with 26 walks against only 17 strikeouts. White is a poor defender which tarnishes his prospect profile, but considering the lack of offense currently throughout baseball, he should hit his way to a productive big league career.

Final name I will mention in Angels’ left-handed pitcher Sean Newcomb, a polished starting pitcher they selected in the 1st round last June. As a mid-1st rounder last summer, Newcomb has built-in notoriety, but he has four quality pitches including a mid-90s fastball, and should move quickly through their minor league system and up prospect rankings this season.

* Please return tomorrow, Friday 5/29, for Part-2 of the Mailbag, in which I answer questions about Jomar Reyes, Stephen Strasburg, and the 2015 MLB Draft. *

THE Joshua Kusnick Experience Episode 2 – A Shout Out to Ralph

Posted on May 25, 2015 by Ryan Sullivan

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | RSS

Welcome back to Episode #2 of THE Joshua Kusnick Experience! This week Josh finds himself driving home from a weekend visiting Milwaukee Brewers’ Jeremy Jeffress in Atlanta.

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This is a tremendous hour of baseball talk and gives an amazing insight into the business side of professional baseball. Download now and please spread the word!

Pick Your Pitching Prospect – Dylan Bundy or Reynaldo Lopez

Posted on May 22, 2015 by Ryan Sullivan

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Dylan Bundy

Reynaldo Lopez

Scouting Washington Nationals Prospect Reynaldo Lopez

Posted on May 21, 2015 by Ryan Sullivan

Potomac Nationals RHP Reynaldo Lopez

Date Scouted: 5/17/15

7-Word Scouting Report: Raw Righty, Plus-Plus Fastball, Potential Above-Average Secondaries

On what must have been the most humid day in recent years, Sunday afternoon I drove up I-270 to Frederick to watch the Keys host the Potomac Nationals. In particular I was eager to watch Washington Nationals top prospect Reynaldo Lopez in his third start of the 2015 season for Potomac. And Lopez was worth the drive, as he threw six innings, allowing one run on five hits and two walks against four strikeouts; unfortunately this effort went for naught as the Keys rallied late in the game to win 3-2.

Immediately one notices the physicality of Lopez, who appears bigger than his listed 6-0 185lbs., with muscular, thick legs and a well-developed upper body. Lopez has elite arm speed and an athletic, projectable body with room to add some additional muscle as he matures. He releases the baseball from a high three-quarters release point and while he does not have an arm stab in the back, he does have a long arm motion. His delivery has some excess activity throughout and he throws off a stiff front leg, but his athleticism allows him to repeat his delivery fairly consistently for a raw 21-year-old in High-A. Aside from gaining game experience, Lopez needs to work on his refining his fastball command and smoothing out the extraneous movement in his delivery the summer in Potomac.
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On Sunday Lopez’s fastball consistently sat at 96-97mph, touching 98mph three times, with late life and heavy punishing action. It almost sounds like he is angry with his catcher when the ball strikes the mitt, as it makes such a violent sound upon impact. His command was loose in this appearance, especially down in the strike zone, although one could also criticize the umpire’s small strike zone.

In addition Lopez showed an above-average to plus, but inconsistent, 77-79mph curveball with harsh 10-4 action on the offering. He struggled to throw his curveball for a strike, burying it low in the strike zone. Finally, he threw an 81-85mph changeup with solid arm action and some arm-side fading action – the changeup is inconsistent but is a present average pitch and could play to above-average in the future due to his upper-90s velocity. His curveball and changeup currently lag behind his monster fastball, but both secondary offerings have the potential to be above-average to plus with refinement.

Overall I was extremely impressed by Reynaldo Lopez, as he has the most effortless 96mph fastball one will ever see, along with two potentially above-average off-speed pitches in his curveball and changeup. Certainly Lopez needs development time in the minors to build up his arm strength, improve his ability to field his position and hold base runners, and refining his delivery. Also, his past shoulder injury warrants mention, as this combined with his average build could in a worst case scenario force him to a career as a reliever.

That said Lopez has a solid floor as a high-leverage 8th or 9th inning reliever and if he can overcome concerns about his size, his shoulder, and polish his motion, he has a ceiling as a legitimate #2 starter. While he has flaws, Lopez possesses a special arm and could arrive in the major leagues sometime in 2016.

https://youtu.be/OoE8SE1gRJc