April 1, 2011

With each team celebrating Opening Day either yesterday or today, I wanted to write a column to share the various things I am looking forward this upcoming season.  I have compiled a list of 9 things with the Nationals, and 9 things in Major League Baseball, that I am eagerly anticipating this year.  Without further ado….

Washington Nationals

1) Ryan Zimmerman -> Zimmerman is the best player in baseball no one talks about and my favorite player to watch.   There is little more impressive to me in baseball than watching him field a slow roller up the third base line and throwing out the runner at first base.  I would pay to watch him play baseball. (come to think of it, I do pay to watch him play)

2) Danny Espinosa and Ian Desmond -> I look forward to watching these two grow as major leaguers and develop as one of the best young middle infield combinations in baseball.  But are they average everyday players, or are they special?  I think this year will go a long way towards answering that question.

3) Mike Morse -> I am looking forward to seeing if he is a quality starter in the major leagues or if he is better suited to a bench role in the major leagues.  We should get the answer this season.

4) Jayson Werth -> The Nationals first big free agent acquisition since returning to Washington, I look forward to seeing how he handles the pressure of his large contract.  My friends who are Phillies fans disagree with me, but I think Werth has been underrated the past few seasons with the bigger names on Philadelphia’s roster.  He will likely never live up to his contract but he is an excellent player and should be fun to watch for the next several seasons in Washington.

5) Stephen Strasburg -> I will enjoy the updates on his rehabilitation from Tommy John surgery and the hype for his return in 2012.

6) Jordan Zimmermann -> He may not quite possess the stuff that Strasburg has, but Zimmermann has top of the rotation stuff and I want to see if he can become the #2 starter the Nationals need to compete in the future.  He will likely have an innings cap this year and could have some growing pains in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, but we should have a good idea at the end of the season how good Jordan Zimmermann can become.

7) Livan Hernandez -> I really enjoy watching Livan pitch.  His stuff is hardly dominating (never has been) but his ability to change speeds and keep batters off-balance is magnificent at times.  Grab a seat in center field or behind home plate to get a true idea of the movement and smarts he possesses.

8) Bryce Harper -> I look forward to waking up each morning and looking at the box scores to see his progress towards the major leagues.

9) Visiting Nationals Park -> No, it does not have a signature feature and the lack of anything in the neighborhood surrounding the stadium is a major negative, but once I enter the stadium, it is truly a great place to watch a game.  The Red Loft is a nice place to grab a drink during the game and the stadium walk is fun to visit prior to first pitch.  I look forward to visiting the park a few times this season.

Major League Baseball
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1) Opening Day -> Easily my favorite day of the year.  I go with my Dad every year and it is normally the only game I can get him to each year.  With good weather and most everyone in attendance playing hooky from work or school, it is truly a special event each year.

2) The 2011 Philadelphia Phillies -> which scenario comes true:  the Phillies tremendous starting pitching staff leads them to the playoffs or their rapidly deteriorating lineup and unremarkable bullpen forces them to miss the playoffs.

3) The MLB Draft -> This draft has more talent in it than in any other year in the past 6-7 years I have been following it.  And the Nationals are fortunate to have 3 picks in the top 35 selections, meaning they should get three impact players to inject into the farm system.

4) The July 31^st Trade Deadline -> As someone who blogs and judges the moves General Managers make (or do not make) the trade deadline holds special interest to me each season.  Which GM thinks they still have a chance?  Who will make the big push?  Who are the buyers and who are the sellers?  What will the Nationals do?

5) Breakout Young Stars -> I have been meaning to make this item into a column all to itself but have not been able to make it work.  But in the spirit of making predictions, here are my selections for breakout players of 2011.  I have chosen five hitters and five pitchers.

Hitters: Travis Snider OF Toronto Blue Jays, Jay Bruce RF Cincinnati, Gordon Beckham 2B Chicago White Sox, Chase Headley 3B San Diego Padres, and Mike Morse LF Washington Nationals

Pitchers: Brian Matusz LHP Baltimore Orioles, John Danks LHP Chicago White Sox, Wandy Rodriguez LHP Houston Astros, Jhoulys Chacin RHP Colorado Rockies, and Max Scherzer RHP Detroit Tigers.

6) The Baltimore Orioles ->Because of some circumstances in my personal life and because of the numerous upgrades the Orioles made this off-season, I am looking forward to watching this team play and improve in 2011.  I think a few of their young pitchers could take a step forward this season, and I am convinced that the lineup will hit.  I am already looking forward to drinking a Natty Bo while visiting Camden Yards this year…. I will be the guy in a fedora.

7) Boston Red Sox Lineup -> With the addition of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez, coupled with the return from injury of Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, the Red Sox offense has a chance to be special this year.  I fear some bust potential because of the hype but the sheer level of talent they possess and playing half their games in Fenway Park could allow the 2011 offense to be one of the best in recent memory.

8) Ownership situations with the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers -> The Mets ownership is having deep financial problems because of their involvement with Bernie Madoff.  The Dodgers are having problems because of a divorce between the McCourt family.  I will enjoy seeing how these ownership groups and major league baseball work to stabilize these situations.  Will MLB float a loan to keep each going?  Will one of both franchises have to sell?  Only time will tell.

9) The September stretch run and the playoffs -> I will also make some predictions about the division winners and the wild cards:  I will take Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins, Anaheim Angels, Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee  Brewers, and San Francisco Giants to win their divisions and I will select the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies to win the wild cards.  I will take Boston over the Braves in the World Series.

Email me at NationalsGM@gmail.com with questions or general feedback and follow me on twitter @natsgmdotcom.

March 30, 2011

In their quest to get down to the mandatory 25-man roster, the Nationals recently made two trades.   First on Sunday, the Nationals traded CF Nyjer Morgan to the Milwaukee Brewers for IF Cutter Dykstra and $50,000.  Then Monday, the Nationals traded utility infielder Alberto Gonzalez to the San Diego Padres for RHP Erik Davis and cash considerations, said to be $50,000 as well.

Nyjer Morgan, 30, took Washington by storm after a 2009 trade (Nyjer and Sean Burnett for Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan) from the Pittsburgh Pirates, batting .351/.396/.435 in 191 at-bats.  This was the first major trade under the Mike Rizzo regime, and looked to be a fleecing immediately after his arrival. Then the 2010 season arrived and most everything that could go wrong did go wrong: Morgan batted .253/.319/.314 in 509 at-bats, regressed significantly on defense, and became a distraction with his on-field antics.  GM Mike Rizzo brought him to Viera this spring to give him one last chance to prove that he could be the dynamic leadoff hitter and standout defensive center fielder the Nationals envisioned when they traded for him.  After a slow start this spring, the team decided to make Rick Ankiel their everyday center fielder, and were stuck either giving Nyjer a bench role or sending him to AAA Syracuse.  When Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin inquired about Morgan, the Nationals likely made the proper decision and agreed to a trade with the Brewers.

Cutter Dykstra, a second round pick in 2008 for Milwaukee, played 3B last season in Low-A,  batting .312 with a .416 on-base percentage and 27 stolen bases.  The son of former big leaguer Lenny Dykstra, he is expected to play for High-A Potomac this season.  “He’s an athletic kid, he’s a really good runner,” Rizzo said. “He’s a good offensive player with a high on-base percentage guy and works counts. He’s really the type of guy that hits at the top of the lineup. Has a little pop and speed and really commands the strike zone.” (cite -> Copyright 2011 by The Associated Press) On the other hand, Keith Law tweeted soon after the trade was announced that Dykstra was “an org player”, certainly not the same pretty picture that GM Mike Rizzo painted.  While I hesitate to disagree with Keith Law, I humbly think Dykstra might have more potential than “an org guy”, and perhaps a move to second base might better fit his skill set and give him a future as a utility player.

While this package from Milwaukee feels rather light, the Nationals could not expect much of a trade market for a 30 year old 4^th outfielder coming off a terrible season and with some character issues.  Frankly, I am surprised Mike Rizzo did this well.  I think Dykstra has a future as a utility player, $50,000 cash never hurts, and it could be some addition by subtraction by moving Nyjer to another organization.

As the diagnosis of bipolar disorder in children and viagra online order adolescents. Further, due to prior heart and other health conditions, a lot of men are just not candidates for drugs like click these guys now cheapest levitra. The solution has brought the online pharmacies. india viagra pills http://twomeyautoworks.com/?attachment_id=260 Having any kind of sexual problem can give rise to inferiority complex and low self-esteem about one’s body. sildenafil super Overall Grade:  C … Decent, uninspiring trade

Then Monday, the Nationals decided to trade Alberto Gonzalez to the San Diego Padres and enter 2011 with Alex Cora as their utility infielder.  Gonzalez has done a nice job for the Nationals the past few seasons, especially with his glove, but his bat would get exposed whenever he would receive extended playing time.  Therefore, the Nationals concluded that Gonzalez’s future was as a dependable utility infielder but not a starting caliber player.  Unfortunately, Gonzalez did not share the same opinion and consistently (according to media reports) complained to manager Jim Riggleman and upper management for more playing time and the opportunity to start.  The Nationals decided that he was too much of a distraction and traded him to San Diego for RHP Erik Davis and $50,000 cash.

Erik Davis, a 24 year old right-handed starting pitcher who went 14-3 with a 3.52 ERA and 133 strikeouts in 143 1/3 innings last season over three levels.  Davis was the 13^th round pick of the Padres in 2008 draft out of Stanford University, where he was a teammate of Nationals reliever Drew Storen.  Davis is 6-4 and 200 pounds, with a career 3.49 ERA, 8.5 K/9, and 1.236 WHIP in 293 2/3 career minor league innings, which gives me some hope that GM Mike Rizzo has found a useful arm for the future.  Similarly to my feelings about the Nyjer Morgan trade, Davis is unlikely to be a difference maker in the majors, but this is a fair return for a utility infielder.  However, I liked Gonzalez as a utility infielder enough that unless he was truly a problem in the clubhouse, I would have preferred to keep Gonzalez going forward.  Thus, I cannot fully endorse this trade.

Overall Grade: D+….. Good return for the player, just would have preferred to keep Gonzalez

Email me at NationalsGM@gmail.com with questions and general feedback and follow me on twitter @natsgmdotcom.

March 24, 2011

Yesterday the Nationals made a few roster moves, first placing Stephen Strasburg on the 60-Day disabled list, then claiming LHP Lee Hyde from the Atlanta Braves and signing LHP Oliver Perez to a minor league contract.  Strasburg is strictly a procedural move, as he will not return to the club until September at the earliest, and likely will not pitch in the majors this year.  By placing him on the 60-Day DL, it clears a valuable space on the Nationals 40-man roster.

Then later in the afternoon, the Nationals used the newly created space on the 40-man roster to claim 26 year old LHP Lee Hyde off waivers from the Atlanta Braves and immediately optioned him to Triple-A Syracuse.  Hyde produced a 3.41 ERA over 60 2/3 innings last season between Double-A and Triple-A and continued to impress in the Arizona Fall League.  Baseball America, however, failed to rank him among the top 30 prospects for the Braves either of the past two off-seasons.  With a K/9 rate of 7.7 last season, perhaps GM Mike Rizzo has found a solid middle reliever caught or LOOGY (Left-Handed One Out Guy) caught in a numbers game in Atlanta, which has a strong farm system and a fairly established bullpen.  But I have never seen him pitch, so a grade from me is fairly irresponsible in this instance: that being said, it cost the team nothing and young left-handed pitching is a valuable commodity.

Grade:   No risk, potential return
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Finally, the Nationals signed LHP Oliver Perez to a minor league contract after being released earlier this week by the New York Mets with $12 million remaining on his $36 million, three-year contract.  The Nationals are only responsible for a prorated portion of the contract, a maximum of $400,000.  Perez has a relationship with Nationals minor league pitching coordinator Spin Williams, dating back to 2004 with the Pittsburgh Pirates when Williams was the pitching coach and Perez led major league baseball in K/9 ratio.  Perez has great talent and creates plenty of swings and misses but he struggles with his below average command, which creates far too many walks and runs scored.  I believe Perez is too far gone to rediscover the mechanics that led to him being a strong middle of the rotation starter, but like the Lee Hyde move, there is little to no risk (essentially Spin Williams’s time) and some potential that he revives his career in Washington.

Overall Grade:  B… Why Not?

I encourage everyone to email me at NationalsGM@gmail.com with questions, general feedback, or topics you might like me to cover. Please follow me on twitter @natsgmdotcom.

March 1, 2011 

I must say I am fairly surprised to have written about fifteen columns about the Nationals without discussing Bryce Harper: that streak ends today. Drafted by the Nationals with the 1^st overall selection in last June’s amateur draft, Bryce signed just prior to the August 16^th deadline for a $9.9 million dollar major league contract (the largest ever given to a hitter) that included a $6.25 million dollar bonus (the 3^rd largest in draft history). Because he signed so late last summer, he did not play in the minor leagues, instead going straight to the instructional league and then participating as a taxi-squad player in the Arizona Fall League, producing an impressive .343/.410/.629 in 35 at bats. As part of his major league contract, he was invited to Spring Training and should see limited game action this spring before reporting to Low-A Hagerstown to begin 2011. 

Scouting Report: 

Primarily a catcher growing up, the Nationals selected him last June and immediately moved him to the outfield, believing that catching every day would induce unnecessary wear and tear on his body and by eliminating the defensive development needed to play catcher, it should allow his bat to move more quickly through the minor leagues and into the Washington Nationals lineup.  Harper is a true five tool athlete (hitting power/batting average/speed/defense/throwing arm), with indescribable bat speed and incredible balance that allows him the unique ability to consistently square up on the baseball while simultaneously swinging out of his shoes. These talents allows him to hit for power without sacrificing batting average. Bryce possesses a plus to plus-plus arm, and in combination with his athleticism and strong baseball IQ, he should be above average defensively at any outfield position. Lastly, Bryce stands about 6-3 and 215-ish pounds and currently has above average speed, but as he matures and fills out, this tool will probably be closer to average. 

The conventional thinking has been that he would be developed as a right fielder because of his powerful throwing arm and size, but I believe enough in his athleticism that I think the Nationals should keep him in center field until his body fully matures and he outgrows the position. As I mentioned before, his advanced baseball IQ should allow him to get strong jumps in the outfield and help him get the most out of his speed and athleticism. 

The only concern I have with Harper has more to do with the off the field stuff and how he will handle the immense spotlight. Being the most hyped amateur player in baseball history and gracing the cover of Sports Illustrated at sixteen, he is going to have all the media attention he wants and more. How he handles it will ultimately decide his baseball legacy because he truly has too much talent to fail. Assuming he handles this well and avoids injury, his ceiling and his floor are pretty impressive: 

Ceiling: .300, 40+ HRs, 20 SBs… A top three player in baseball 

Floor: .260, 25+ HRs, 10 SBs… An All-Star level player 
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His Path to the Big Leagues 

The Nationals announced last week that they intend to send Bryce to Low-A Hagerstown to begin the season. While this is entirely appropriate, I am a bit surprised that they are not starting him in High-A Potomac, as he faced that level of competition, or better, last fall in the Arizona Fall League and more than held him own. That said, I assume the Nationals want to start him in Hagerstown to temper his expectations and let him “conquer” each level one at a time. My guess is he will play about 40-50 games (150-200 ABs) through May in Hagerstown before receiving a promotion to High-A Potomac around Memorial Day. After that, I would guess the Nationals would keep him there through the summer (250-300 ABs) and assuming everything is progressing well, would move him up to Double-A Harrisburg for the end of the season. By promoting Harper to Double-A prior to the end of the season, it will allow him to represent the Nationals as a full participant in the Arizona Fall League next November. (players in double-A and higher are allowed to participate fully in Fall League games, since Bryce was not at that level this past November, he was forced to the “taxi squad” and was only allowed to play on Wednesdays and Saturdays) 

If he can keep up with this aggressive track, it would set Bryce up to begin 2012 in Double-A Harrisburg and give him an excellent chance to see time with the Nationals late next season.  So no Nationals fans, it is very unlikely you will see Bryce in Washington this season, but he is very likely to be there in 2012 and should be a cornerstone of the franchise beginning in 2013.    

Also, I want to encourage everyone to email me at nationalsgm@gmail.com with questions, general feedback, or topics you might like me to cover. Also, please follow me on twitter @natsgmdotcom.