One of the many wonderful blessings of writing NatsGM has been the amount of new people I have been fortunate to have met in the past year, and the intelligence of so many Nationals fans.  Being around and discussing baseball with such smart fans has made me a better scout, and allowed me to make some new friends along the way.  One great friend I have made this year has been Mark Zuckerman, the original Nationals beat writer for the Washington Times, and now the editor of NatsInsider.com, one of the top Nationals websites on the internet.

A few weeks ago I reached out to Mark and asked if he would consider doing an interview for NatsGM and sharing some of his thoughts about the Nationals and baseball in general.  I am very grateful to Mark for sharing some of his time this off-season to talk baseball with me, and my readers.  So without further ado, here is my recent interview with Mark…

Q: Mark, thank you for joining us.  I would like to begin by asking you to discuss your career covering the Nationals for those that may not be quite as familiar with you as some others?

I’ve lived and worked in the D.C. area since 2001, when I was hired by the Washington Times to cover the Orioles. I spent two seasons on the Orioles beat, then switched over to the Redskins for two seasons before taking over the Nationals beat when they arrived in town in 2005. I’ve covered the Nats all the way through, the first five seasons for the Times and now for CSNwashington.com and natsinsider.com (the blog I created in 2010 after the Times eliminated its entire sports staff). It’s been a whirlwind for me, and the job has changed considerably over that time (back in the first part of the 21st century, if a game ended too late to make the final edition of the paper, I’d simply write about it the following day for the next day’s paper. There were no web-only articles at that point!) But I still love what I do, and am truly grateful every day I get the opportunity to do this for a living.

Q: What does a typical day entail for you, both home and away, during the season?

This has also changed a lot in recent years, because it’s now a 24-hour job. I used to be able to sit around all morning and relax. Now, I usually write a morning blog post or two before ever heading to the ballpark. I arrive at the stadium about four hours before first pitch, because we get clubhouse and field access before every game. I interview players and the manager, watch batting practice from the field and write about any pregame news before the game even begins. During the game, I write a live blog. Then, once it ends, I head back to the clubhouse for postgame interviews before returning to the press box to write my full game story. I usually don’t leave the press box until 2 or 2/12 hours after the game has ended. Suffice it to say, it’s a long workday. It’s not like I just show up at the park and watch a ballgame!

Q: What is the biggest misconception about your job as a baseball writer?

That I’m a fan of the team. I’m really not. I’m totally impartial about the Nationals, and I have to be that way in order to cover the team well. I know what it’s like to be a fan, and I love that feeling. But fans are by nature going to look at a team and its players in a different light, overreacting both to good and bad developments. As an impartial reporter, I don’t get emotionally invested in them, and that allows me to write with perspective. I never go into an article trying to write something positive or something negative. I just write whatever I see and hear myself. Now, is it more enjoyable to cover a winning team than a losing team? Absolutely. (Actually, I can’t speak from experience there, because I haven’t covered a team with a winning record since the 1996 Northwestern University football team! But from what I hear, it’s fun to cover a winner. I sincerely hope I get the chance to do that here in the very near future.)

Q:  I would like to transition now to the Nationals… Since you have covered the team since Day 1, what has been the biggest change within the organization you have observed from the start of the franchise until today?

I think the biggest change is the way the organization has transitioned from operating like an expansion franchise that didn’t act like it belonged with the big boys to now operating like any other big-league club. The Lerner family has learned a lot in the five years it has owned the team, and Mike Rizzo has done an impressive job taking this organization from the depths of the majors to the respectable position it’s now in. The Nationals used to be the laughingstock of baseball. Now, everyone in the game has a great deal of respect for this franchise.

Q: If GM Mike Rizzo and the Nationals gave you the power to be “GM for a Day” this off-season, what one move would you make?

Besides signing myself to a $100 million contract? I’m going to refrain from publicly campaigning for them to sign any one player — that’s my impartiality showing up again — but I do tend to agree with Rizzo that this team’s biggest need is a real center fielder. They could use more pitching, too. But if I could make only one move, I’d get myself a good center fielder.

Q: Being that you spend such a large amount of time with the team, I was curious if there was a great story or moment from this past season that you did not get a chance to share with your audience?

I’m not sure if there’s any one moment that stands out, but the five-day stretch in late-June that began with Jim Riggleman resigning out of the blue and Davey Johnson taking over as manager were probably the most exhilarating and most exhausting days I’ve ever had as a sportswriter. It was such an unexpected and bizarre story, and it featured so many twists and turns over those days. Little did any of us know what was about to happen when we walked into the press conference room following that series finale win over the Mariners. My head’s still shaking thinking about everything that happened after that.
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Q: What is the best and worst road city and hotel that you visit during the year?
I’ve got several favorites: Chicago, San Diego, Pittsburgh, and San Francisco. The best hotel, hands down, is the Marriott Gaslamp Quarter in San Diego. It’s literally across the street from Petco Park, it’s in the middle of a cool part of town that has all kinds of restaurants and shops. And it’s got a rooftop bar where you can look into the ballpark. Plus, it’s in San Diego. How can you go wrong there? My least favorite stops on the road are Houston and Cincinnati. Those towns just do nothing for me, and there aren’t any particularly good hotels near the ballparks.

Q: Who has been your favorite Nationals player to interview?

I’ve been lucky enough to get to know and interview a lot of great players, but Livan Hernandez is probably my favorite. I love watching him pitch, because he’s not like anyone else in the game. And he’s pretty much the same way when he’s being interviewed. He just says what’s on his mind, whatever comes naturally to him. He’s probably the most confident athlete I’ve ever covered, and I mean that in a good way. He just knows exactly what he is, and he loves being himself.

Q: Do you believe Major League Baseball will add an additional baseball team to the playoffs in the next few years?  Are you a proponent of adding another team in each league to the postseason?

Sadly, it looks like they will add another wild-card in each league in 2013. I’m not a fan of that plan, at all. While it might be good for teams like the Nationals, who will have a better chance of being in a pennant race, I think it could kill the races that define a 162-game season. Think about that incredible final day of the regular season this year. That wouldn’t have happened with an expand playoff field. I just don’t think there have been many, if any, teams that over the last decade didn’t make the playoffs but truly deserved to make it. Reaching the postseason in baseball should be a true achievement. I don’t see how finishing in third place in your division could be considered that.

Q: Finally, I am curious, what is your favorite Nationals moment or memory?

Two memories stand out from the rest. Opening Night at RFK Stadium was a once-in-a-lifetime experience. Seeing all the old Senators taking their positions in the field, then handing their gloves to the new Nationals. Seeing the president throw out the first pitch. Seeing so many longtime D.C. baseball fans cry tears of joy over having a team once again. And then experiencing the RFK Stadium press box shake for the first time — that was really something! My second favorite memory is Stephen Strasburg’s debut. There was so much hype leading into that game, and there just didn’t seem any way he could live up to it. And then he not only lived up to it, he surpassed it by leaps and bounds. The pure joy everyone in that ballpark experienced that night was remarkable. We may very well look back on it as the night D.C. became a baseball town.

Q: Mark, thank you again for being so generous with your time… How can we keep up with you?

My pleasure. You can find me all over the place. Of course, my articles run on CSNwashington.com and natsinsider.com. I also make regular TV appearances on Comcast SportsNet, as well as regular radio appearances on ESPN-980 AM. And if you’re on Twitter, you can follow me @MarkZuckerman.

Thank you again Mark for taking some time out of your busy schedule to share some thoughts with us, that was quite a treat.  Mark has been a wonderful friend to NatsGM this past year, and I want to pass along a special thanks for all your help.  If you are not currently reading his work, or following him on Twitter, you are truly missing out, as he is the best in the business.

I highly encourage you to follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, email your questions and comments to me at nationalsgm@gmail.com, and “Like” NatsGM on Facebook.

Part Two: Pitching

Pitchers currently on the 40-Man Roster: (22)  Collin Balester, Sean Burnett, Tyler Clippard, Todd Coffey (FA), Ross Detwiler, Tom Gorzelanny, Livan Hernandez (FA), Cole Kimball, John Lannan, Ryan Mattheus, Yunesky Maya, Tom Milone, Brad Peacock, Matt Purke, Henry Rodriguez, Atahualpa Severino, Doug Slaten, Craig Stammen, Drew Storen, Stephen Strasburg, Chien-Ming Wang (FA), and Jordan Zimmermann.

Projected 2012 Payroll -> $75 million   ($68.3 million in 2011)

NatsGM Off-Season Transactions -> Traded RHP Brad Peacock, LHP Ross Detwiler and OF Roger Bernadina for CF Peter Bourjos.  Signed Free Agent RHP Roy Oswalt to a 2-year, $27 million dollar contract.  Re-Signed RHP Chien-Ming Wang to a 1-year, $1.75 million dollar contract plus incentives.

The pitching staff was a pleasant surprise for the Nationals in 2011, as they outperformed most if not all preseason expectations.  The Nationals finished 7^th in the majors with a staff ERA of 3.58, 26^th in strikeouts with 1049, 9^th in walks with 477, and 5^th in home runs allowed with a total of 129.  The starting rotation was just ordinary last season, ranking 28^th overall in total innings pitched with 928.2, 3^rd in total walks allowed with 266, 28^th in total strikeouts with 585, and 23^rd in batting average against with .270.  The statistics show that the Nationals did a nice job pitching to contact and not walking opposing batters, however it also highlights that the rotation needs to pitch deeper into games so as to not tax the bullpen and it needs to miss more bats in 2012.  Clearly with the return of Stephen Strasburg and the lack of any innings restriction on Jordan Zimmermann next season should naturally improve these results, nevertheless, this still needs marked improvement.

The bullpen was outstanding in 2011 ranking 4^th in innings pitched with 520.2, 10^th in runs allowed with 202, 24^th in walks allowed with 211, 5^th in strikeouts with 464, and 5^th in batting average against with .230.  The sheer amount of innings the bullpen pitched will naturally lead to poor rankings in walks allowed and runs allowed, but the bullpen did an excellent job preventing runs and striking out hitters.  Mike Rizzo has done a great job rebuilding the bullpen from the shambles it was two seasons ago when he took over into a team strength.  Assuming the team does not trade from its depth this off-season, the bullpen looks to be the backbone of a solid pitching staff again next season.

In doing this exercise, I wanted to find a way to add an impressive #3 starting pitcher to the rotation to team with Strasburg and Zimmerman and I wanted to make every effort not to trade from the depth and talent of the bullpen, while finding a way to sign a strong lefty-on-lefty reliever to give Davey Johnson another weapon.  In part 1 of this piece, I spent $43.821 million on offense, thus leaving me about $31 million for the pitching staff within this hypothetical $75 million budget.  Here is how I would fill out the 2012 pitching staff, position-by-position.

****

Leading the Nationals starting rotation in 2012 will be the talented duo of Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann.  I am not sure how many more superlatives can be used to describe Strasburg, but he returned to the majors in September after recovering from Tommy John surgery and was absolutely dominant.  Over his five starts and 24 innings pitched, Strasburg had a 1.50 ERA with 24 strikeouts and just 2 walks!  The 2 walks stand out to me as simply incredible, as command of the strike zone is notorious for taking some time to return after Tommy John surgery… not for Strasburg.  The Nationals will likely keep him on a similar innings restriction as they did Jordan Zimmermann this past season and limit him to about 25 starts and 160 innings to protect his arm and his future.  Strasburg is a true “ace” pitcher and makes the Nationals significantly more intimidating entering 2012.

Jordan Zimmermann’s first full season after Tommy John surgery could only be classified as a fabulous success; Zimmermann was a model of consistency last season, making 26 starts and pitching 161.1 innings, producing a 3.18 ERA with a K/9 of 6.92 and a BB/9 of 1.73.  There is always some worry and doubt when a pitcher returns from arm surgery, but Zimmermann returned last season and looked brand new.  Most, if not all of the restrictions should be lifted this season, and I expect to see Zimmermann pitch 33-35 starts, a total of 200 innings and form one of the top young pitching duos in all of baseball with Mr. Strasburg.

After considering many options between trades and free agency to fill the #3 Starter position in the Nationals rotation (e.g. Edwin Jackson, Mark Buehrle, CJ Wilson, Yu Darvish, and Wade Davis) I believe the best solution is to sign Roy Oswalt from the Philadelphia Phillies.  I am making the assumption that the Phillies will not offer him arbitration, however, if they do offer him arbitration, I would have to reconsider my opinion, as Oswalt would be a Type A Free Agent, and signing him would cost the Nationals their first round selection in 2012 – a very steep price.  However, I think they will pass on offering him arbitration, mostly out of fear that he might accept, and if they do not offer him this arbitration, there is no cost to signing him.

I considered the trade market to fill this hole, but after my “hypothetical trade of Peter Bourjos” in Part 1, I did not want to trade any more pitching and/or prospects this off-season, so I shifted my focus more heavily to the free agent class.  In this search, my decision came down to two major considerations, specifically contract demands (years and dollars) and most importantly, which pitcher would I most want pitching a playoff game for my team.  With these points in mind, I expect the contract demands of Yu Darvish and CJ Wilson to be far too rich for my tastes and difficult to massage into this budget, so I would quickly pass on them.  Edwin Jackson and Mark Buehrle are both reliable, solid mid-rotation starting pitchers, and either would fit nicely into the Nationals rotation, but neither has the talent, skills, or “upside” (paging Hubie Brown) that Oswalt possesses.

Roy Oswalt, 34, did not have his best season in 2011, as he made only 23 starts and pitched 139 innings as he battled a back injury, but even in a down season, Oswalt still recorded a 3.69 ERA with 93 strikeouts against 33 walks. Prior to last season Oswalt had made 30 or more starts every year since 2003 with career numbers of 153-92 over 11 seasons and  2154 innings with a career 3.21 ERA.  When healthy he is an impressive front-of-the-rotation starter, thus, if his back problems are behind him, Oswalt will be a tremendous addition to the rotation and would transform the Nationals immediately into wild card contenders, not to mention a very intimidating opponent in any potential short series with Strasburg, Zimmermann and Oswalt as your starting rotation.

Capably handling the 4^th starter role for the Nationals in 2012 will be veteran LHP John Lannan.  Lannan, 27, was extremely reliable again in 2011 with a record of 10-13 and a 3.70 ERA over 184.2 innings and 33 starts.  Aside from a rough two months in 2010, Lannan has been the definition of consistency since joining the Nationals and he is exactly what a team is looking for in a #4 starting pitcher.  Lannan will see a nice pay increase this winter through the arbitration process and continue his underappreciated reliability in 2012.

At the outset of writing this piece, I envisioned the 5^th Starter position being split next season by veteran starters Chien-Ming Wang and Livan Hernandez.  With Strasburg on an innings limit next season, the Nationals will enter next season already knowing they will need to cover 6-8 starts, meaning pitching depth is a factor to consider.  That being said, I just could not find the money in the budget to re-sign Livan for next season, and while he would be a valuable asset in case of injury, I do not think the drop off in production from what Livan would produce verses Tom Milone or Craig Stammen is enough to justify his salary.  I am a big fan of Livan and hope the Nationals find a way to have him return next season, but I cannot find a way within this budget.

Therefore I expect Chien-Ming Wang to re-sign with the Nationals and take over as the #5 starter.  After spending almost two years rehabilitating from a shoulder injury, Wang returned to the majors in July and while rusty, showed signs of the stuff that made him a CY Young contender with the Yankees just a few seasons ago.  In 62.1 innings pitched, he went 4-3 with a 4.04 ERA, a K/9 rate of 3.61, a BB/9 rate of 1.88, and a 53.4% ground ball ratio.  Wang is a nice risk for the Nationals, if he stays healthy next season but does not see any improvement with his pitches, he should do a nice job gobbling up innings and pitching to contact, exactly what any team wants from its fifth starter.  On the contrary, if his sinker regains another 1-1.5mph and a bit more sink with an off-season to further strengthen his shoulder, the Nationals quickly have another intimidating #2 or # 3 starting pitcher.  Any team would be happy to take that gamble with their #5 starting pitcher.

After a shaky spring, there were some questions about whether Drew Storen was the closer of the future for the Nationals heading into opening day.  I guess Storen just needed a little longer than most to knock off the rust, because Storen quickly seized control of the closer role once the season started and established himself as one of the best young closers in baseball.  Storen pitched in 73 games and 75.1 innings last season, producing a 6-3 record with 43 saves, a 2.75 ERA and 74 strikeouts.  Storen has a bright future, and should be the Nationals closer for many years.

Words cannot capture how solid and clutch Tyler Clippard was for the Nationals last season and it would be difficult for a relief pitcher to have a better season than he just completed.  Clippard provided a 3-0 record over 88.1 innings with a 1.83 ERA and 104 strikeouts, simply outstanding.  Clippard uses a 93-94mph fastball to set up one of the five best changeups in baseball and on occasion will mix in a swing and miss curveball.  I am sure the Nationals will receive tempting offers for Clippard this winter, but dependable late-inning relievers are nearly impossible to replace, so unless they receive an overwhelming offer, I expect Clippard to return to the Nationals next season.

Henry Rodriguez, 25 next season, was the key player in the Josh Willingham trade last winter and the NatsGM’s winner of the “Forrest Gump’s Life is Like a Box of Chocolates” award for 2011, because when he entered the game, you just never knew what you were going to get.  He allowed only 1 home run all season over 65.2 innings and struck out 9.59 batters per 9 innings but had a walk rate of 6.17 BB/9, second highest among NL relievers – Rodriguez did seem to steady himself in September, pitching in 12.1 innings and striking out 14 against 4 walks and 8 hits. Manager Davey Johnson gave him some late-inning, high leverage situations down the stretch and Rodriguez seemed to respond.  If Rodriguez can continue to harness his control and allow fewer walks, he has nearly unlimited potential and is a strong asset to the Nationals in middle relief.

I envision the other right-handed middle relief slot to go to Ryan Mattheus, a long-time favorite of mine.  Mattheus appeared in 35 games last season for the Nationals, posting an excellent 2.81 ERA in 32 innings pitched.  However, he produced a K/9 of 3.38 and a BB/9 of 4.42, providing evidence that Mattheus received his fair share of luck last season.  That said, Mattheus has averaged 7.22 K/9 in the minor leagues and closer to a strikeout per inning once shifted to the bullpen a few seasons ago, so I am a believer that he misses more bats next season and evolves into a solid asset in middle relief for the Nationals.

I am nominating Sean Burnett for the National’s “Jekyll and Hyde” award for 2011, as he was simply awful the first half of the season pitching to a 5.40 ERA over 31.2 innings, but was phenomenal in the second half with a 1.80 ERA over 25 innings.  According to media reports, he made some mechanical adjustments (he moved from one side of the rubber to the other) around mid-season and he responded better than ever.  Aside for the aforementioned slump early this past season, Burnett has been outstanding since arriving in Washington two plus years ago and should return to his customary 7^th/8^th inning role for the Nationals next season.

The Nationals need to find a left-handed reliever that excels at getting left-handed batters out, affectionately known as a LOOGY (Left-Handed One Out GuY).  Doug Slaten excelled in this role for the Nats in 2010 but could not produce the same magic in 2011.  With the large number of excellent left-handed hitters in the NL East (i.e. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Brian McCann, Chipper Jones), the Nationals missed having this matchup advantage last season and need to locate someone to fill this role for next year.  With Slaten expected to command $900,000-$1 million as an arbitration-eligible player, I expect he will be non-tendered.  Unfortunately, the left-handed reliever market is rather thin this off-season (especially with Jeremy Affelt and Javier Lopez both re-signing with San Francisco), and without much more than a minimum salary available for this position, I expect Mike Rizzo to wait until January and see whom might be remaining on the market either as a low salaried veteran or a Non-Roster Invitee to compete with Atahualpa Severino for this spot in spring training.

As I began trying to round out the bullpen for 2012, I wanted to find a way to keep Tom Gorzelanny as the team’s long-reliever/spot starter because he flourished in this role once he was demoted from the starting rotation last season.  However, as an arbitration eligible player likely to command between $2.3-$2.7 million dollars, he is far too expensive for a pitcher likely to only contribute 80-100 innings in long relief.  If the Nationals can bring him back on a cheaper contract, I would be in favor of it, but I expect the Nationals not to tender him a contract and allow him to become a free agent.

The Nationals do have quality options to fill the role such as Collin Balester and Yunesky Maya, but I have long been a fan of Craig Stammen and think he would excel as a long reliever.   Stammen has a mediocre history as a starter, but my thought has always been that he was better suited as a reliever because his fastball adds some velocity out of the bullpen, he rarely walks hitters, and has a propensity to produce ground balls (50.9% in 2010, 52.4 % in 2011) which can strand inherited runners and force double plays.  These skills, along with his history as a starter, make him a nice option to round out this impressive relief corps.

****

I expect the starting rotation to greatly improve from last season, as the return of staff “ace” Stephen Strasburg, an additional 40 innings from Jordan Zimmermann, and 200 innings from new arrival Roy Oswalt should impressively bolster the rotation.  Their presence should have the Nationals pitching staff pitching deeper into games, striking out more batters, and decreasing the staff batting average against and number of walks allowed.  All of these positives should directly lead to an improved overall staff ERA.
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While I think the Nationals bullpen will struggle to equal last season’s impressive results because of natural regression, the improvement of the starting rotation should be a net positive on the bullpen.  Because the bullpen should have fewer innings to pitch, this will allow Davey Johnson to maximize the usage of his best relievers in high-leverage situations.  Further to this point, if the bullpen enters fewer situations with runners on base because of the improved rotation, this should lead to fewer inherited runners allowed to score and improved results for the pitching staff overall.

The National’s pitching staff was solid last season, and with the expected improvements from the starting rotation and the return of a deep and talented bullpen, I think the Nationals and their fans should expect improvement in 2012.  If the starting rotation stays healthy, the bullpen continues with their excellence, and the team has their fair share of luck, the Nationals should be contending for a wild card next September.  There is limited availability left on the National’s bandwagon, so I hope you catch my optimism and enthusiasm, as the Nationals have a real chance to be contender as early as next season.

2012 Starting Rotation

Starter #1 -> Stephen Strasburg ($4.875 million)

Starter #2 -> Jordan Zimmermann (Arb. $1.750 million)

Starter #3 -> (Roy Oswalt Free Agent Contract 2-year $27 million ($12.5mm in 2012))

Starter #4 -> John Lannan ($4.750 million)

Starter #5 –> Chien-Ming Wang ($1.750 million plus incentives)

2012 Bullpen

Closer -> Drew Storen ($425K)

Stopper -> Tyler Clippard (Arb. $1.70 million)

Middle Relief -> Henry Rodriguez ($425K)

Middle Relief -> Ryan Mattheus ($425K)

Middle Relief -> Sean Burnett ($2.30 million)

LOOGY -> Atahualpa Severino or {Free Agent} ($425K)

Long Relief -> Craig Stammen ($425K)

Rotation $25,625,000

Bullpen $6,125,000

Overall: $31,750,000

2012 Total Payroll: $43,821,000 + $31,750,000 = $75,571,000

Big “Tip of the Fedora” goes to Davey Johnson, GM Mike Rizzo, the Nationals and all Nationals fans.  The rumors came true and Davey was announced as the Nationals manager for 2012, which is fantastic news, as he is one of, if not the best, managers in baseball.  He is a real asset in the dugout and to the organization.  Another piece of good news Nats fans – get excited!

Follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, email me your questions and comments to nationalsgm@gmail.com, and “Like” me on Facebook search NatsGM.  Thanks for your support!

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Now that I have discussed the starting lineup, we need to round out the offense by describing the bench.  Serving as the bench infielders for the Nationals will be Chris Marrero and Brian Bixler.  Marrero was impressive in his September call up and showed that he deserves to be in the major leagues.  He will struggle to find at-bats with LaRoche returning, but I see him starting against left-handed pitchers and finding at-bats both pinch hitting and as the designated hitter in interleague play.  Most would expect Lombardozzi to claim the other bench spot (and he might) but I feel he is better served getting 200-300 regular at-bats at AAA rather than trying to find playing time behind Espinosa, Desmond, and Zimmerman.  However, if any of those three sustained an injury, I would expect Lombardozzi to be on the first plane to Washington.  In the meantime, I think Bixler would serve the bench role particularly well, as his defensive skills and versatility along with his tremendous speed make him an asset off any National League bench.

To round out the bench, I would offer arbitration to Laynce Nix and I would look to re-sign Rick Ankiel.  Nix has a powerful lefty bat and is a solid defender at both corner outfield spots who can capably handle the job in case of a lengthy injury, while Ankiel is above average defensively at each of the three outfield positions and would serve as a nice backup to Bourjos in center field.  I would offer Nix arbitration and assume that he returns to Washington, however, if he does sign with another team, the Nationals would receive a supplemental draft pick next June, not a bad consolation prize.  Either the Nationals have a nice bench player at a reasonable cost or they receive a Top 75 draft choice in June if Nix signs elsewhere.  Ankiel is an excellent bench player, and I expect he will shop his services around aggressively this winter to the highest bidder and team that guarantees him the most playing time.  However, I believe $1.75 million will secure his services, and think his defensive versatility and left-handed bat makes him well worth that price.

Overall, I would not make drastic changes with the offense heading into 2012.  I believe the addition of a quality leadoff hitter (Bourjos), improved health from Adam LaRoche and Ryan Zimmerman, and the expected offensive improvement from Jayson Werth, Danny Espinosa, and Ian Desmond leaves me quite optimistic that the offense will greatly improve next season.

2012 Nationals Offense

Catcher -> Wilson Ramos ($425k)

First Base -> Adam LaRoche ($8.00 million)

Second Base -> Danny Espinosa  ($425k)

Shortstop -> Ian Desmond ($425k)

Third Base -> Ryan Zimmerman  ($12.10 million)

Left Field -> Mike Morse ($3.70 million)

Center Field -> (Peter Bourjos Anaheim Angels, signed through 2016 – $425k)

Right Field -> Jayson Werth ($13.571 million)

Bench

1) Jesus Flores ($900k)

2) Chris Marrero ($425K)

3) Brian Bixler ($425K)

4) Laynce Nix (Re-Sign 1yr. $1.25million)

5) Rick Ankiel (Re-Sign 1 yr. $1.75 million)

Total Cost:  $43,821,000

Part 2 – The Pitching Staff coming Monday! {Edit – Tuesday}

Big “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to Bloomberg BusinessWeek (http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/anatomy-of-a-baseball-trade-10202011.html) that produced a terrific article late last week about the trade of Michael Bourn from Houston to the Braves at the trade deadline this past summer and how the trade transpired step-by-step.  This piece gives a nice insight into how a baseball trade occurs and the process involved in doing so.  I highly recommend you give it a read!

Follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, email me your questions and comments to nationalsgm@gmail.com, and “Like” me on Facebook search NatsGM.  Thanks for your support!

The most wonderful part of creating NatsGM has been the opportunities I have received to meet new people and talk baseball with these new friends.  With the Nationals season finished and little news coming out of Half Street, I have been fortunate my readers continue to fill my email account nationalsgm@gmail.com with plenty of questions in which to respond.   Some of the more intriguing themes and questions I receive I like to expound upon in a segment I call “Dear NatsGM” (trademark pending).  So without further ado, here is the latest edition of “Dear NatsGM”…

Larry from Alexandria, VA -> “Do you (and fellow Nats fans) want Davey Johnson to return as manager in 2012?”

Did Ian Ziering wish to reprise the role of Steve Sanders on the new version of 90210?!… Of course we as Nationals fans want Davey Johnson to return for 2012 and ideally longer if his health continues to allow him to do so.

I am the first to admit I was a bit skeptical of some of the decisions Davey made his first two or three weeks on duty, but over the last five or six weeks of the season I saw dramatic improvements with certain players (Ian Desmond, Henry Rodriguez, and Ross Detwiler immediately come to mind) along with significant strides in situational hitting and fundamental baseball displayed by the team.   Johnson led the team to a 40-43 record after taking over for Jim Riggleman mid-season, including winning 9 of their last 11 down the stretch.

Davey Johnson has a swagger to him, a nice combination of self-confidence and conviction that began to positively rub off on the team in August and September.  I feel like under previous managers the Nationals played hard and tried to win, but under Davey’s leadership the team’s attitude shifted toward expecting to win and further, wanting to put a whipping on the opposition.  The lack of this attitude, generally and generically referred to as “killer instinct”, was my biggest complaint under Manny Acta and Jim Riggleman and is the most tangible upgrade I can point to with Davey Johnson over his predecessors.

I continue to await the formal announcement that Davey Johnson will be the Nationals manager in 2012.  Thank you for the question!

Kevin from Towson, MD -> “What should the Orioles do to rebuild the franchise?”

Terrific question… I have been writing a column about the Orioles and the state of their franchise for about six weeks, or when Boston was still in 1^st place in the AL East, and thankfully, it is almost finished.

The short answer, I think the individual who replaces Andy MacPhail has their work cut out for them, as the Orioles likely have the least amount of major league talent in the AL East, and probably the least amount of talent in the minor leagues in their division as well.  I would compare to Orioles to the search engine company AltaVista: the Orioles competing against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays right now is similar to the competition AltaVista faces against Google, Yahoo, and Bing in search engines, as in, they are a nice product but a long way from challenging the leaders.

Joking aside, I do see some nice building blocks in Baltimore and I think with some savvy front office maneuvers and healthy dose of luck, they could see some success in the next few years, though 2012 looks like another tough season.  My upcoming piece will expound upon this question, Kevin, but I see reasons for optimism in Baltimore, thank you for writing.

Red Sox Nation -> “What happens with the Boston Red Sox during this off-season?”

Boston sure has had a bad few weeks, huh?  Their collapse occurred more rapidly than an alcohol-fueled meltdown from Frank of MTV’s The Real World San Diego (check out the show, he is amazing bad television).  Unless things take a drastic change of course, it appears that Theo Epstein will be leaving the general manager position in Boston to take over a similar position, with more responsibility, with the Chicago Cubs and early last week, Terry Francona was terminated as manager of the Red Sox.  As seen rather clearly both in the now-infamous Boston Globe piece and the subsequent actions of the team, both Theo Epstein and Terry Francona are being designated as the fall guys in Boston for the team’s collapse down the stretch.
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While things feel lousy in Southie right now, there are PLENTY of reasons for optimism in Beantown: they will start 2012 (barring any major trades) with Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz fronting their starting rotation and Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, and Kevin Youkilis leading a fearsome lineup that led major league baseball in runs scored in 2011 with 875.

Sure, there are some rather large questions to answer this winter:  First, who takes over as the manager of the club? Next, do you re-sign David Ortiz and Jonathan Papelbon to act as designated hitter and closer, respectfully, or do the Red Sox look to move on?  How do they round out the #4 and #5 starters?  Tim Wakefield is on his last legs and John Lackey, though likely to rebound in 2012, has a nearly immovable contract and cannot be counted on as anything more than a 5^th starter.  Finally, the Red Sox need production upgrades in right field, as JD Drew was injured and not particularly effective last year, and behind the plate at catcher, as the combination of Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Jason Varitek will not continue to cut it offensively.

Clearly this already has and will be a chaotic off-season for the Red Sox with plenty of questions left to be answered.  I am curious what the new general manager Ben Cherington will do to fill out this roster and how he attempts to get this roster a bit younger and more athletic.  As a casual observer, I am looking forward to Boston’s off-season and I still believe the Red Sox have a better than 50-50 chance of making the playoffs next season.  A big thank you goes out to Red Sox Nation for the question.

Joey from Allentown, PA -> “Which contract do you consider worse: Ryan Howard or Alex Rodriguez?”

This is a terrific, sports-talk radio question!  To answer this question, I think there are four major considerations, namely contract length and dollar amount, age and health of the player, offensive skills, and value defensively.  According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts website, Rodriguez, 36, has 6 years and $141 million left on his contract, while Ryan Howard, 32 in November, has his contract extension begin next season for 5 years and $125 million dollars.  Rodriguez struggled with injuries this past season only playing in 99 contests and has battled many nagging injuries, most specifically his hip, the past few seasons, while Howard, traditionally a durable player in his career, enters 2012 with major injury concerns as he ruptured his Achilles tendon on the final out of their season as he ran to first base.  The normal recovery time for an Achilles is 6-9 months, which would take him well into next season.

Offensively, both players have seen their skills erode and statistics decline sharply in the past two seasons.  A-Rod produced a .270/.341/.506 and .276/.362/.461 offensive line the past two seasons against his career average of .302/.386/.567.  Howard in 2010 and 2011 produced a .276/.353/.505 and .253/.346/.488 against his career average of .275/.368/.560.  Especially alarming in both cases is the rapid erosion of their slugging percentages, each dropping close to 100 points this season from their career averages.

Defensively, I would believe the Yankees expect that he can continue to play third base defensively for a maximum of three more seasons at best, at which time he should shift to first base.  However, with the presence of Mark Teixeira already at first base, A-Rod will probably finish his career as a designated hitter.  Howard has declined defensively the past season and a half, and it is a complete guess how anyone will recover from such a devastating injury, especially a large man never known for his athleticism.  Without the designated hitter in the National League, the Phillies have little choice but to continue to play him at first base for the duration of his contract.

I would give Howard the advantage in terms of contract as he has one fewer year and $16 million fewer dollars owed him and a draw on health as Howard recovers from an Achilles injury but A-Rod is 36 years old with a bad hip.  I would give A-Rod the advantage both offensively and defensively going forward, as his subpar numbers last season could be attributed to injuries and he could rebound offensively with a healthy off-season to recover and train, while his ability to play the more demanding position, third base, trumps Howard at first base. I believe that Rodriguez will be the more valuable player in the future, so if forced to choose, I would pay the extra money and hope A-Rod can bounce back with two or three more MVP type seasons, but this is a tough choice between two unappealing contracts.  Outstanding question Joey, thanks for participating.

This “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to Bud Selig and Major League Baseball- their decision to move the playoff games up to 8pm from 8:30pm as in past years was a terrific move, as was scheduling seemingly many more afternoon playoff games as well.  Tremendous fan-friendly decision to allow more people, kids especially, to watch these contests.  Nice work!

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