The Nationals will enter Thursday’s Rule 5 draft with open spaces on their 40-man roster, meaning they will have the opportunity to select a player from another organization if they so choose.  Players are eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft if they are not on a major league organization’s 40-man roster and with few exceptions, were signed at age 19 or older and have been in the organization for 4 years or were signed at 18 or younger and have been in the organization for 5 seasons.  Each player costs $50,000 to select, and here’s the catch, the draftee must stay on the selecting team’s 25-man roster the entire following season, or be offered back to his previous team for half the original price (aka $25,000).  For reference, a few weeks ago the Nationals placed catchers Derek Norris and Jhonatan Solano, first baseman Tyler Moore, and outfielder Eury Perez on the 40-man roster to protect them from selection in this draft, as they all fit the above criteria and would have been eligible.  In the prior MLB labor agreement signed 5 years ago, both sides agreed to extend the eligibility for all minor league players an additional season (from 3 or 4 years to 4 or 5 years at present), thus shrinking an already shallow pool of talent.  However, for whatever reason, the Rule 5 draft will always hold a certain luster to the hardcore baseball geek like myself.

No matter how hard baseball people try to downplay the importance of this draft, there will be 15-20 players selected tomorrow morning as there are each year.  Typically pitching, especially of the left-handed variety, and up-the-middle batters are most in demand year after year.  After scouring the lists of whom is available, here are a few names that stood out to me as having a excellent chance of being selected:

Boston Red Sox LHP Cesar Cabral -> Cabral was selected in last years Rule 5 draft, and stands a good chance of being selected again: he possesses a 92-94mph fastball to go along with a curveball, slider and changeup.  While he likely is not a long-term starting pitcher, his ability to strike batters out (11.5 K/9) and his quality fastball should make him a future left-handed reliever.
Chicago Cubs IF/OF Ryan Flaherty -> Flaherty is a quality left-handed bat that can play 2B, 3B, and both corner outfield spots and likely can stick as a bench player next year.
Chicago White Sox OF Jordan Danks -> Danks, the brother of LHP John Danks, has outstanding tools, speed and athleticism in addition to his excellent defense in center field.  Unfortunately, he has a problem with strikeouts, leading him to produce an unimpressive .258/.340/.408 career batting line.  That said, his speed, defensive skills and name recognition could see him get selected tomorrow.
Philadelphia Phillies OF Jiwan James -> James is probably the highest rated prospect available in this year’s Rule 5 draft, but seeing as though he has never played above High-A, it is difficult to believe he could be useful in the major leagues next season.  But his sheer talent will likely have a team take a flyer on him tomorrow.
Seattle Mariners LHP Philippe Valiquette -> A left-handed pitcher that can reach 99mph, there is a good chance a team will select him, hoping they can keep him healthy and teach him some much needed control.
Tampa Bay Rays RHP Nick Barnese -> Barnese is a solid starting pitching prospect that has been overlooked in his career by the other more highly rated pitchers the Rays have in their organization.  Barnese has a solid fastball, changeup, and slider and does not allow many walks.  His stuff will not overwhelm you, but he should be able to stay in the majors as a long-reliever in 2012 and he has the upside of a solid #4 starter down the road.
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Washington Nationals LHP Josh Smoker and RHP Bradley Meyers -> GM Mike Rizzo decided to expose Smoker and Meyers to this draft, and they are the most likely to be chosen from the Nationals tomorrow.  Smoker was a highly thought of prospect when he was drafted in the supplemental 1st round in 2007 draft, but immediately lost his stuff after signing his professional contract and struggled for years in his attempt to be a starting pitcher.  Finally he shifted to the bullpen this year, saw his fastball reach 98mph and dominated with a 2.31 ERA and 56 strikeouts in 51 innings, although he did walk 37.  He has never pitched above High-A Potomac, which makes his selection somewhat unlikely, but left-handed pitchers with that type of velocity and the ability to miss bats gives him a chance to be drafted.

Meyers is almost the exact opposite type pitcher, as a right-handed pitcher with an ordinary 89-92mph fastball, changeup and slider who succeeds by throwing strikes and keeping walks to a minimum.  Meyers does not have much of a ceiling, likely a career 5th starter or middle reliever, but there is little doubt in my mind he can pitch in the majors next season and be an asset as an 11th/12th man on a pitching staff.  His lack of upside kept the Nationals from protecting him last month, but may not dissuade another team from selecting him and making him a strike-throwing middle reliever next season.

The Nationals have historically been very active in the Rule 5 draft, selecting RHPs Elvin Ramirez and Brian Broderick in 2010, OF Jamie Hoffmann in 2009 (though he was immediately traded to the Yankees for RHP Brian Bruney), RHP Terrell Young in 2008, 3B Matt Whitney and OF Garrett Guzman in 2007, C Jesus Flores and RHP LeVale Speigner in 2006, and OF Tyrell Godwin and 3B Tony Blanco in 2004 and I expect them to continue that trend this year.  The Nationals currently have some unoccupied spaces on their bench or they could look for a left-handed reliever to compete for a place in the bullpen.  When the Nationals are on the clock tomorrow morning, I expect them to take a long look at IF/OF Ryan Flaherty from the Cubs or LHP Cesar Cabral from the Red Sox, if they are still available, to compete for a place on the team in spring training.

I will be live blogging tomorrow morning’s Rule 5 draft, beginning at 9am ET, so I invite you to join me as I discuss their selection, or lack thereof, and any potential moves the Nationals make between now and then.

Please follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, email me your questions and comments to nationalsgm@gmail.com, and “Like” me on Facebook search NatsGM.

The past few weeks have been rather slow with signings and trades as the focus of most of major league baseball has been the passage of the new labor agreement.  With that said, the Winter Meetings begin next Monday and we should see a sharp increase in Hot Stove activity in the coming days.  This edition of “Dear NatsGM” has been taken directly from questions I have received recently from my Twitter account @NatsGMdotcom.  Without further ado, here is the latest installment of “Dear NatsGM”…

@NotSlimButShady via Twitter -> @NatsGMdotcom what are your thoughts on Baseball America’s Top 10 List for the Nationals that was recently announced? Also @FelixMarsden via Twitter -> @NatsGMdotcom- To build on his Q, what Nats minor leaguer(s) are your sleepers and who do you like less than consensus?

Baseball America annually ranks each organizations top 10 prospects, and recently they announced their 2011 Nationals list, namely from 1-10, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Brad Peacock, A.J. Cole, Brian Goodwin, Alex Meyer, Matt Purke, Sammy Solis, Derek Norris, and Steve Lombardozzi.  I am immediately struck by how improved the system is from 3-4 years ago, when Matt Purke likely would have been the top overall prospect, today he sits 7th.  Even some of the names outside the Top 10 like Destin Hood, Robbie Ray, and Chris Marrero are promising prospects that would find themselves inside the Top 10 of many organizations, so the depth is vastly improved as well.

While this system has made tremendous improvements in the past few years, my only concern is with the “boom or bust” nature of this top 10, as each player after Bryce Harper has questions associated with him.  Four of the players on this list (Rendon, Purke, Goodwin, and Meyer) have yet to play a professional game outside of the Arizona Fall League, and AJ Cole and Brad Peacock do not have especially long track records of success.  That said, I am definitely nitpicking, as this system is one of the ten best in baseball and likely inching toward the Top 5, as the sheer amount of premium talent they possess cannot be ignored.

As for my sleepers in the Nationals system, the names that immediately jump out to me are Jeff Kobernus, Erick Fernandez and to a lesser extent, Destin Hood. I have long been a believer in Jeff Kobernus since I scouted him for a week in Cape Cod a few summers ago (thank you Dannhauser family) as a 15-20 home run and 20 stolen base type player with solid-to plus defense at 3B, whom also possessed the athleticism to play second base as well.  The power I saw a few summers ago has yet to appear as a pro, but the speed has certainly translated and he made nice strides in 2011.

Erick Fernandez was a 2011 25th round pick as a catcher out of Georgetown; Erick has long been a personal favorite of mine, as I have watched him play probably 25+ collegiate games and I believe he can develop into a backup major league catcher, as he has wonderful defensive and leadership skills, along with a surprisingly quick bat.  Fernandez is a player to keep an eye on in 2012.

Finally, Destin Hood is difficult to label a sleeper, as he has been placed on other top prospect lists from other baseball outlets, but I am a big believer in Hood’s talent, athleticism and bat.  He will continue to move slowly through the minors, but in time I think he develops into a Josh Willingham-type player in left field.

I do not wish to sound negative, but a couple players I am less high on than the organization are Brad Peacock and Robbie Ray.  I like Peacock as a quality major league pitcher, but his changeup has not developed enough in recent years for me to believe it will be an effective major league pitch.  Since I do not believe in the changeup, I think Peacock is destined to be a strong late-inning reliever, rather than a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher.  Thus, I would attempt to sell high on him this winter to a team that believes in him as a long-term starting pitcher.  Robbie Ray is a quality left-handed pitching prospect who showed success last season at Low-A Hagerstown, producing a 3.13 ERA and 95 strikeouts in 89 innings.  I am not down on him as a prospect, I would prefer to say that I think his numbers are more impressive than his stuff.  With an 87-90mph fastball, I fear that he will struggle at the Double-A level unless he gains some velocity on his fastball.  That said, he is only 19 years old and has a slender frame so the potential is there to add strength and velocity in the next few seasons.  Ray is a solid prospect, but perhaps not quite as strong as his performance might suggest.

Thank you for following me on Twitter and thanks for your question!

@NL_Beast via Twitter -> @NatsGMdotcom If given the choice this winter, do you prefer to sign Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols? This feels like a “Dear NatsGM” question-

tadalafil 20mg uk Even sometimes due to ED, marriages are also affected. The number of sufferers those who have been attacked by heart diseases, recent heart stroke, congestive heart failure, variable blood pressure level, seizure, bleeding disorder, blood cell disorder, vision loss, hearing disorder, hypertensive disorder or heart diseases should be scrutinized to ensure the safe consumption of cialis from canadian pharmacy. Test tube baby may represent a possible solution in this case and confident enough that above mentioned causes order levitra online http://twomeyautoworks.com/item-5437 are not your case. However, emergence viagra sans prescription of side effects does not actually depend on the texture of the medicine last for about 4 to 6 hours and in cases more than 6 hours. Thanks for the question, and before I begin, your Twitter handle is outstanding!  With this question, there are several things we know both positively and negatively about Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols: both are first basemen and two of the best 10 players in baseball, have long and distinct track records of success, and are MVP level talents.  Also, both players will rightly command enormous contracts as Pujols is rumored to be demanding an 8 or 9 year contract worth more than $200 million dollars, and Fielder is angling to match or exceed Mark Teixeira’s free agent contract of 8-years and $180 million dollars.  Besides the enormous financial commitment, there have long been questions about the accuracy of Pujols’ reported age of 31 and giving someone over the age of 30 a 9-year contract seems like a terrible investment. Prince Fielder has the advantage of being only 27 and theoretically entering his prime, but his round frame and bad body profile does not project to age particularly well.

Both Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols would be enormous upgrades to the Nationals lineup, and if GM Mike Rizzo could find a way to sign either one for 6 years or less, I would fully support the decision.  However, I do not see either signing for fewer than seven years, and I fear the regression in the last few years of their contracts.  Therefore, as appealing and talented as both players are, I would have a difficult time supporting either signing: however, if forced to choose, I would sign Pujols, as I think he is the best hitter of the past 20 years and will age like a fine California Cabernet, for the next 6-7 years anyway.  Thanks for following me on Twitter, and thanks for the question!

@JamesPole via Twitter -> “@NatsGMdotcom, what advice would you give a 12 year old boy that shows real promise as a baseball player?”

Thanks for reading and this is a perfect question for “Dear NatsGM”.  The first two things I immediately hear scouts and college recruiters ask about high school athletes are, “What is his GPA?” and “Is he a good young man or is he a knucklehead?”  So the immediate focus in my opinion should be to shore up the off-the-field stuff.

However, I am not an expert on teaching and training youngsters, so I forwarded this question to a former teammate of mine, and former minor league pitcher Matthew Ryan.  Matthew turned down scholarship offers from ACC schools to pitch locally at George Washington (his priority was academics), pitched in the Cape Cod League, and was a major league prospect.  Here was his response to your question:

“First of all, Ryan is correct, focus on education above everything else.  That was always my priority, and should be any young man’s as well.  In terms of on field training, for a pitcher I would recommend you throw, throw and throw some more while working on your mechanics, and run a lot to strengthen your legs.  Do not lift weights until you are about sixteen years old, except to strengthen your throwing arm and rotator cuff and do not throw a curveball until that age as well.  For a hitter, I would say the best piece of advice I could give would be to try and learn to switch hit.”

“Year around as a kid I threw, hit off a tee, long tossed, and soft tossed, constantly working on my throwing and hitting mechanics.  One piece of advice I would share is I wish I had joined the track or cross country team in high school to build up my leg strength.  Another idea I would recommend is long tossing with a softball (I still do to this day) to cause muscle confusion and strengthen and spread out the rotator cuff muscle. Once you are finished tossing the softball for 20 minutes, go to a baseball for 20 minutes and it feels like a ping pong ball.”

A big thank you goes out to Matt for sharing his thoughts and expertise and thank you to @JamesPole for the question.

This “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to my long-time friend Matthew Ryan, who was kind enough to lend his expertise to the question above.  He and I are working on some additional content for NatsGM this winter, so keep an eye out for his future contributions.  Matthew Ryan, MA, LPC, NCC is a licensed mental health professional, with a Master in Arts in Clinical Psychology and has completed his doctoral classes in Clinical Psychology. He recently started his own private practice, Duffy Counseling Center, in McLean, VA outside of Washington, DC. He works with adolescents and adults. He focuses on depression, anxiety, learning disabilities, sports anxiety/performance, and crisis intervention. His office contact number is 703-255-1091.  Thanks again, my friend!

Follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, email me your questions and comments to nationalsgm@gmail.com, and “Like” me on Facebook search NatsGM.  Thank you so much!

On Friday, in anticipation of next month’s Rule V draft, the Nationals added catchers Derek Norris and Jhonatan Solano, first baseman Tyler Moore and outfielder Eury Perez to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from being selected by another team.  In addition, the Nationals re-claimed RHP Cole Kimball off waivers from the Toronto Blue Jays, who similarly claimed him from the Nationals last Wednesday and tried to quickly sneak him through waivers two days later.  With these five additions, this now leaves the team with 37 slots filled on the 40-man roster, allowing the team to participate themselves in next month’s Rule V draft, along with letting the team make free agent signings without any corresponding maneuvers.

The four players the Nationals protected last week are familiar prospect names to many Nationals fans. Derek Norris was the organizations #2 prospect in 2009 and 2010 and the #38 overall prospect in baseball in 2009 and #72 overall prospect in 2010.  Norris struggled with his batting average in 2011, hitting only .210, but he did produce a .367 on-base percentage and slugged 20 home runs while vastly improving his defense behind the plate.  Norris also starred in the recently completed Arizona Fall League, being named to their Rising Stars All-Star game.  While you would like to see the batting average improve, Norris is one of the ten to twelve best catching prospects in baseball and projects as a above average starter in the major leagues, perhaps as soon as opening day 2013.  For now, he should be the starting catcher in Triple-A Syracuse next season, with a good chance to receive a September call-up.

Jhonathan Solano has long held the reputation as an above-average to outstanding defensive catcher with a rather limited bat.  In many organizations, Solano would have received greater attention, but he has long been overshadowed because of the tremendous catching depth in the Nationals farm system and his underwhelming power numbers.  However, in 2011 Solano moved up to Triple-A Syracuse and produced a solid .275/.325/.388 batting line in 275 at-bats along with fantastic defense to improve his standing within the organization.  I must say I was a bit surprised the Nationals protected him with Wilson Ramos, Jesus Flores, and (likely) Derek Norris ahead of him on the depth chart.  That being said, there is no question he could be a solid backup catcher for many major league teams as soon as 2012 and has a nice long-term future as a above average backup.

First baseman Tyler Moore, 25 in January, was drafted by the Nationals in the 16th round of the 2008 draft and has hit his way up through the minor leagues, including being the Nationals 2010 Minor League Player of the Year.  As a right-handed hitting first baseman with below average defensive skills, Moore (and others like him) tend to be overlooked as prospects, but his 62 home runs the past two seasons has forced the organization to take notice.  Give Moore credit for hitting his way onto the 40-man roster.  I still question whether he will continue to hit in the major leagues or if he is one of the dreaded “Quad-A” players, but his power potential is such that the Nationals were right to protect him.  I expect Moore to be the starting first baseman in Triple-A Syracuse next season, and it will be interesting to see if he continues to provide great power numbers.

Finally, the Nationals decided to protect 21 year old center fielder Eury Perez from next month’s Rule V draft as well.  A good case could be made that Perez would not be selected next month if unprotected, as he has never played above High-A, but his defensive skills in center field and his ability to hit for a high batting average made the Nats nervous that he would be selected and stashed on another team’s bench next season.  Perez needs to improve his skills at getting on-base to become a starting center fielder in the major leagues, and will look to do so as the starter in Double-A Harrisburg next year.

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Overall, I think the Nationals did a nice job to re-acquire Cole Kimball, and I think their choices of players to protect besides Jhonatan Solano were fairly straightforward, although I suspect Perez would have gone unselected if he was made available.  Now GM Mike Rizzo and the Nationals will shift their focus to filling their hole in center field and finding a mid-rotation starter the rest of this winter.

A big “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to my wonderful sponsor Amazon.com…  Amazon has been a great friend to NatsGM this year and I want to thank them.  If you have any holiday shopping to do this year, click the link and check them out.

Follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, email me your questions and comments to nationalsgm@gmail.com, and “Like” me on Facebook search NatsGM.

I have spoken at length about Chien-Ming Wang in the past, but I wanted to comment on and commend both the Nationals and Wang for coming to an agreement late last week on a 1-year deal for $4 million dollars plus incentives for 2012.  It was said that Mike Rizzo really wanted a club option for 2013 included in the contract, though Wang did not agree to that demand, likely in exchange for not testing free agency or holding out for a multi-year commitment.  Most expected Wang to re-sign with the Nationals but I was surprised he received $4 million guaranteed, I anticipated he would command closer to $2 million in base salary, with more tied to incentives.

Still, the Nationals are making an educated gamble with Wang as he returned last season and pitched fairly well, especially his last few starts- if he stays reasonably healthy next season but does not increase his velocity or find some additional sink to his pitches, he should more than earn his salary eating innings at the back-end of the starting rotation.  However, if Wang can find an addition 1-2mph and/or two to three more inches of downward sink on his sinker this winter with additional strength training and recovery, he immediately becomes an impressive middle-of-the-rotation caliber pitcher and would be worth two to three times his salary.  That is a gamble any team would make from their 5^th starter and a nice wager for $4 million dollars.  This is a good signing for the Nationals by only making a 1-year commitment, and good for Wang to receive such a healthy guarantee – excellent deal by both sides.

Overall Grade: B to B+

Also late last week, the Nationals exposed bench player Brian Bixler to waivers, in an attempt to free up a spot on the 40-man roster, but unfortunately he was claimed in the process by the Houston Astros.  There go my chances at perfectly predicting the National’s moves this off-season.   I thought Brian would stick with the organization throughout this winter and find his way onto the roster next season with his defensive versatility, speed, and cheap salary.  Bixler is a nice asset off any National League bench, as he can capably play five positions and is a valuable pinch runner, but Davey Johnson has expressed a desire for more offensive firepower from his bench next season, something Bixler does not provide.  I will never be critical of any organization exposing and losing a utility infielder, but I expect Bixler to earn a job somewhere next season as a bench player.

Overall Grade: C-

While the focus will consistently be on the Washington Nationals here at NatsGM, from time to time I will comment on some of the hot stove trades and signings this off-season.  One deal that caught my attention occurred Monday when the San Francisco Giants traded LHP Jonathan Sanchez and a LHP prospect Ryan Verdugo to Kansas City for OF Melky Cabrera.  I have long been a fan of both Sanchez and Cabrera far more than the general consensus, and found this trade rather interesting.

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San Francisco traded from their starting pitching surplus in order to fill a need in their outfield by trading for Melky Cabrera.  Cabrera has been a bit of an enigma in his career, having stretches of terrific play with the Yankees and Royals but has severely underachieved at times as well, most specifically for Atlanta in 2010 .  He is a below-average defender in center field but makes up for it with a solid left-handed bat.  I do not think Melky is a great fit in center field for the Giants, as their home ballpark AT&T Park has one of the biggest outfields in baseball and his below average range and speed are not ideal.  In fact, the projected outfield of Aubrey Huff in Left, Cabrera in Center, and Nate Schierholtz in Right would be one of the worst defensively in recent memory.  However, the Giants desperately needed to improve their lineup this winter, and Cabrera is a nice upgrade offensively over Andres Torres.  Still, I am surprised Giants GM Brian Sabean was forced to include a reasonable pitching prospect, LHP Ryan Verdugo, in the deal as Sanchez should have been more than adequate.  Thus, I disagree with this trade from San Francisco’s prospective and as much as I like Melky Cabrera, I would have continued searching for a better offer.

Overall Grade: Kansas City -> B-   San Francisco -> C-

This “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to Mike Axisa, Tim Dierkes, and everyone at MLBTradeRumors.com – thank you for including my 2-Part series last week into your weekly Baseball Blogs Weigh In column last Friday.  This is a must-read piece every Friday for me, as it highlights the best writing on the various baseball blogs on the internet.  Also, this website is the best baseball rumors site on the internet, so if you are interested in keeping up with the Hot Stove rumors of your favorite club this winter, I recommend bookmarking their website, and following them on Twitter @MLBTradeRumors.  Thanks again!

Please follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, email me your questions and comments to nationalsgm@gmail.com, and “Like” me on Facebook search NatsGM.  Thanks for your support!