With the Baseball Writers’ Association of America set to announce their 2012 results on Monday, the question of who should or should not be inducted into the Hall of Fame is one of the bigger questions currently swirling among baseball fans.  This year’s list of first-time eligible players is a bit underwhelming, as Bernie Williams and Brad Radke are considered the most promising candidates for eligibility.  For this reason, it has created an increased amount of speculation from fans if any of the candidates will receive a significant increase in votes and join Chicago Cubs legendary third baseman and broadcaster Ron Santo as 2012 inductees.

I should begin that I am a strong believer in a “small Hall of Fame” and I have long felt that the best criteria for whether a player belongs in the Hall of Fame should be “Is my Mother aware of whom this player is”.  As a tepid at best sports fan inundated for years by a baseball-fanatical husband and son, if she knows a player outside of the Washington D.C. area, he typically belongs in Cooperstown.  Unfortunately, the baseball writers holding votes for Cooperstown do not subscribe to my NatsGM HOF theory (trademark pending), and thus, what has been established as the baseline for a Hall of Famer is a bit more lenient than my above criteria.

The players on the ballot for 2012 include Jeff Bagwell, Jeromy Burnitz, Vinny Castilla, Juan Gonzalez, Brian Jordan, Barry Larkin, Javy Lopez, Edgar Martinez, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Jack Morris, Bill Mueller, Terry Mulholland, Dale Murphy, Phil Nevin, Rafael Palmeiro, Brad Radke, Tim Raines, Tim Salmon, Ruben Sierra, Lee Smith, Alan Trammell, Larry Walker, Bernie Williams, Tony Womack, Eric Young Sr. – of these choices, I would support Jeff Bagwell, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Mark McGwire and Alan Trammell for induction to Baseball’s Hall of Fame.

Jeff Bagwell fell victim last year to the bias that baseball writers have about inducting players in their first year of eligibility and the backlash they are currently placing on those players that played during the “steroid era”.  The only argument I have heard against Bagwell and his rightful place in Cooperstown is that “he was very muscular” though there were never any rumors of steroid use.  This reasoning is completely unacceptable, in my opinion, as Bagwell embodies everything a Hall of Fame player should be – he played his entire career for one team, won the 1994 NL MVP, and his offensive numbers rank him as one of the 30 best hitters in major league baseball history while being a solid defensive first baseman.  Bagwell’s career numbers are staggering, as he produced a .297/.408/.540 batting line with 449 home runs, 1,529 runs batted in, 488 doubles, 202 stolen bases and 1,401 walks spanning 15 seasons.   In my humble opinion, Bagwell is the 2^nd most underrated player in baseball history behind former Baltimore Orioles player and Nationals manager Frank Robinson.  As my favorite player as an adolescent, I am hopeful Bagwell receives his just due and goes from the 41.7% of the vote he received last year to the 75% necessary to become a member of the Hall of Fame this year.

Barry Larkin is widely expected to be elected to the Hall of Fame this year, as this is his 3^rd year of eligibility and he received 62.1% of the vote last year, up from 51.6% in 2010.  Larkin, the 1995 NL MVP, was a career .295/.371/.444 hitter with 198 home runs, 960 runs batted in, and 379 stolen bases over 19 career seasons with the Cincinnati Reds, while earning three Gold Gloves for his defense at shortstop.  Alan Trammell, a six-time all-star and winner of four Gold Gloves also at shortstop, produced a career batting line of .285/.352/.415 with 185 career home runs, 1,003 runs batted in, and 236 stolen bases in a career spanning 20 seasons, all spent with the Detroit Tigers. Trammell received 24.3% of the vote last year and 22.4% in 2010, which seems rather low considering how similar his career numbers are to Barry Larkin.  I have always considered Larkin a lock for the Hall of Fame and think he stands an excellent chance of receiving the necessary votes today, while Trammell will take a few more years, but it is difficult to overlook his career numbers and status as one of the best 10-12 shortstops in baseball history.

Edgar Martinez is a controversial candidate amongst fans and voters because he spent the majority of his career as a designated hitter, thus giving him value only as a hitter, and there has yet to be a DH elected to the Hall of Fame.  I find that logic faulty – there was a time when there was not a relief pitcher enshrined either, does that mean one should never have been initiated?  The game has evolved and the designated hitter has been around since 1973. Also, Edgar did not receive the attention he deserved because he played his entire 18-year career in Seattle, one of the smaller media markets in baseball.  In spite of these facts, Martinez remains the best, most productive designated hitter in the almost 40-year history since adoption of the DH in the American League and his offensive numbers (career .312/.418/.515 batting line, 309 home runs, and 514 doubles) are well-deserving of enshrinement.  Unfortunately, the BBWAA do not fully agree with me, as Edgar’s 32.9% of the vote last year and 36.2% in 2010 shows.  I think it will take a few more years for Martinez as well, but someday the BBWAA will do the right thing and Martinez will be the first designated hitter to enter the Hall of Fame.
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Mark McGwire’s candidacy for the Hall of Fame comes down to one simple question: do the voters believe he took performance-enhancing drugs?  If they think he was clean, or if they do not particularly care one way or the other, then McGwire’s 70 home run season in 1998 and 583 career home runs make him an easy selection to Cooperstown as one of the best power hitters of his generation.  However, the BBWAA voters only giving McGwire 19.8% of their votes, after 23.7% in 2010, seems to indicate they wish for more time to consider the era as a whole and wait for more evidence to come out about any PED usage from him.  Expect voters to continue to delay McGwire’s induction for a few years, but when the dust finally settles on the “steroid era” in baseball, McGwire will find his well-deserved place in the Hall of Fame.

While I have faith that each of these players will ultimately enter the Hall of Fame one day, it is highly unlikely all five of these players will earn this privilege today.  Larkin is seen as the clear favorite to receive the necessary support this afternoon, and I am hopeful but pessimistic that Bagwell will receive his well-deserved honor as well.  My expectation is that Barry Larkin will receive around 77-78% of the vote today and become a Hall of Famer, while Jack Morris, Lee Smith, Jeff Bagwell, and Tim Raines will see an increase in support but not the necessary 75% to earn their way into Cooperstown.

This “Tip of the Fedora” goes to my family, friends, and readers of NatsGM… I want to wish you all a very Happy New Year and my best wishes for a wonderful 2012.

I encourage you to follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, email me your questions and comments to NationalsGM@gmail.com, and “Like” me on Facebook search NatsGM.

In an effort to bolster their bench for next season, yesterday the Nationals formally announced the signing of veteran infielder Mark DeRosa on a 1-year major league contract, of which the financial terms have yet to be announced.  DeRosa, 37 years old this coming February, has spent the past two seasons with the San Francisco Giants, where he was limited to 73 games because of injuries to his left wrist, producing a poor batting line of .235/.313/.279 with one home run over 201 plate appearances.  However, prior to his wrist issues, DeRosa was quite a productive and versatile player, producing a career batting line of .272/.341/.416 over 14 career seasons and more than 3,300 at-bats, while playing every position besides catcher and center field.

While it is difficult to overlook or dismiss his injury-filled 2010 and 2011, his previous four seasons (2006-2009) before signing with San Francisco, DeRosa averaged .281/.356/.448 with 67 total home runs.  Assuming his wrist is back to full strength, DeRosa has the potential to drastically improve the Nationals bench.  By signing DeRosa, the Nationals have found a productive right-handed hitter with some power, in addition to a player than can dependably play 1B, 2B, and 3B, while tolerably playing shortstop and both corner outfield positions.  Nationals skipper Davey Johnson managed DeRosa during the 2009 World Baseball Classic and that familiarity certainly played a major role in DeRosa signing with Washington rather than other clubs this winter.

Mark DeRosa is another wise acquisition by GM Mike Rizzo in an attempt to upgrade the woeful bench production the Nationals received last season.  The Nationals are banking on DeRosa’s experience and versatility being a positive addition in 2012, filling a similar role to Jerry Hairston Jr. prior to his trade last summer.  While acknowledging the “boom or bust” nature of this signing due to his age and past wrist issues, DeRosa should provide the team a steady influence and notably enhance the Nationals bench in 2012.  This is a shrewd move by the Nationals and one I particularly like.

Overall Grade ->   A-
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This “Tip of the Fedora” goes out again to you, my readers – I have seen a sharp increase in web traffic recently and I have gained many new followers on Twitter.  I wish each one of you Happy Holidays and thank you for the support.

I encourage you to follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, email me your questions and comments to NationalsGM@gmail.com, and “Like” me on Facebook search NatsGM.

After a relatively quiet offseason, the Nationals finally made the “big splash” their fan base has been craving all winter, trading prospects RHP Brad Peacock, RHP A.J. Cole, LHP Tom Milone and catcher Derek Norris to the Oakland Athletics for LHP Gio Gonzalez and RHP Robert Gilliam.  For Oakland, they continue their offseason rebuild with this trade, acquiring four top Nationals prospects to further strengthen their farm system while waiting for a potential future stadium in San Jose.  On the other hand, by dealing for Gio Gonzalez, the Nationals quickly grabbed the attention of the National League East and stated their intentions to challenge for the playoffs in 2012.

Gio Gonzalez, a 2011 all-star for the Athletics, is a proven top-of-the-rotation left-handed starting pitcher under contract through 2015, who has pitched 200+ innings the past two seasons while posting ERAs of 3.23 and 3.12.  Gonzalez, 26, possesses an above-average 92-93mph fastball, a devastating wipeout curveball, and a fringy changeup – he uses this arsenal to induce plenty of strikeouts with a career K/9 rate of 8.6.  The knock on Gio has always been his below average control and the large number of walks allowed, as his elevated career BB/9 rate of 4.4 points out (league average is around 3.0-3.1).  While acknowledging his short comings, Gio makes the Nationals starting rotation significantly better next season and at his age, still has the potential to improve.  With this deal, the core of the Nationals rotation, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, and Gio Gonzalez, is now one of the best in baseball and could be together in Washington for the next four seasons.

Robert Gilliam, a 24 year old right-handed pitcher drafted in the 8^th round in 2009 out of the UNC Greensboro, struck out 156 hitters in 164.1 innings at High-A last season.  Gilliam throws a solid 92-94mph fastball, a below-average slider and below-average changeup, though scouts think both the slider and changeup could improve with further development.  Gilliam should spend 2012 in Double-A Harrisburg, and while he is more than a throw-in in this deal, his future most likely relies in middle relief, where his fastball and slider will “play up” and he will only need a changeup on occasion.

In order to acquire such a talented, cost-controlled pitcher like Gio Gonzalez, the Nationals had to part with significant young talent in Brad Peacock, A.J. Cole, Derek Norris, and Tom Milone.  Let there be no question, this is A LOT of young talent heading to the Athletics.  Peacock had a breakout season in 2011, producing a 15-3 record with a 2.39 ERA and 176 strikeouts over 146.2 innings pitched last season, including an impressive 12 inning audition in Washington last September.  Peacock, 23 years old, has a solid fastball, an inconsistent but plus curveball and below-average changeup: the development, or lack thereof, of his changeup will determine if Peacock reaches his ceiling of a #3 starter, or if he is shifted to the bullpen where his fastball/curveball combination would be potentially lethal.

A.J. Cole has the most potential of any player in this trade, and has a great chance to make the Nationals regret making this deal five years from now.  Cole slipped to the 4^th round in the 2010 draft because of high bonus demands, a solid commitment to the University of Miami, and a relatively lackluster senior season in high school.  However, Cole had shown incredible potential the prior summer in the draft showcases and the Nationals decided to give him a $2 million dollar bonus to pass on Coral Gables and become a professional.  After signing late that summer, Cole arrived in Low-A Hagerstown this season and was dominant, striking out 108 batters against only 24 walks in 89 total innings.  He has a terrific fastball/slider combination but his third pitch, his changeup, is well below-average and needs significant development work.  Cole, only 20 years old, should move to High-A next season and climb one level per year, but with polish and improvement from his changeup, could arrive in Oakland in 2014 or 2015 with #2 starter type potential.  He has long been one of my favorites in his draft class and as a Nationals prospect, and I fear he will make the Nationals regret this trade.

Derek Norris is the prototypical “Moneyball” type player, with a low career batting average .249, including .210 this season in Double-A Harrisburg, but a strong habit of reaching base, with a career on-base percentage of .403.  Scouts have long believed in his bat and keen batting eye, but the question about Norris has always been his defense and whether he could be a major league caliber defensive catcher.  In the past 18 months, he has focused on his defense and the results have shown, as many scouts commented on his improvement behind the plate.  I certainly noticed in the two Arizona Fall League games I watched this fall how calm and quiet he looks behind the plate, where previously he had looked a bit antsy defensively.  Norris needs another season in the minors to refine his defense and improve his contact rate at the plate, but Norris should settle in as an average or better starting major league catcher, perhaps as soon as 2013.

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Both teams accomplished their goals with this trade, as the Nationals acquired the solid #2/3 left-handed starting pitcher they sorely wanted to pair with right-handers Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann, while Oakland receives four terrific young talents, including three pitchers, to add to their offseason overhaul.  The major criticisms of Gio Gonzalez are that he walks too many batters and that he greatly benefited from having Oakland as his home park; while both criticisms have merit, I counter that his control has shown signs of mild improvement and the benefit of shifting from the American League to the National League, with the lack of a designated hitter and the traditionally weaker lineups, should counteract a good portion of his previous home field advantages.  I still contend that a free agent contract to Roy Oswalt for two years at a large annual expense would have been the more prudent solution to bolster their starting rotation, rather than parting with Peacock, Cole, and Norris all in one trade.  That said, as difficult as the decision would have been, like GM Mike Rizzo, I would have pulled the trigger on this deal.  However, I still grade this deal poorly because of the comparable options still available (Oswalt, Edwin Jackson, Matt Garza) and to acknowledge the risk involved in dealing multiple high-level prospects, along with my own assumption that trading A.J. Cole comes back to haunt the Nationals in the future.

Overall Grade… D+

This “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to the Washington Nationals amateur scouting and development staffs.  In the trade for Gio Gonzalez, the Nats traded away two 4^th round picks, one 10^th round pick, and one 41^st round pick.  This is a true testament to the jobs they have done finding talent throughout the draft, developing them to their full potential, then turning them into a top-flight starting pitcher.  I want to acknowledge them and congratulate them on a job well-done in recent years!

I hope you will follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, email me your questions and comments to NationalsGM@gmail.com, and “Like” me on Facebook search NatsGM.