As the calendar now reads February and Spring Training arrives in less than three weeks, yesterday in a rather surprising move the Nationals signed free agent right-handed starting pitcher Edwin Jackson to a 1-year contract worth $11 million dollars, $2 million of which is deferred.  Jackson, already a 9-year veteran at only 28 years old, spent 2011 with the Chicago White Sox and St. Louis Cardinals, producing a 3.79 ERA in 199.2 innings pitched, with 148 strikeouts against 62 walks.  For his career, Jackson has a 4.46 ERA, a 6.7 K/9 rate, a 3.7 BB/9 ratio, and 1.476 WHIP (Walks plus Hits vs. Innings Pitched), though those numbers are underwhelming in part because he spent the first 250+ innings of his career in the major leagues when he clearly was not ready.  Prior to this off-season, many speculated that Jackson would sign with Washington, as the Nationals had an obvious need for a durable starting pitcher (Jackson has made 32+ starts 5 seasons in a row), he was rumored to be a trade target of the Nationals two summers ago in the Adam Dunn sweepstakes, and with Jackson’s agent being “Agent to the Nationals” Scott Boras, the fit seemed only logical.

Edwin Jackson, a 2009 All-Star with Detroit, possesses a heavy, blazing 94-95mph fastball, a potent 87-88mph slider and a mediocre changeup.  With his impressive repertoire, one would reasonably expect a stronger career strikeout ratio and more notable overall numbers.  In the last three years he has produced ERAs of 3.62, 4.47, and 3.79 and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) numbers of 4.28, 3.86, and 3.55 – solid numbers but certainly not results that correspond to his outstanding stuff.  Jackson has the stuff of a top-of-the-rotation pitcher but the reputation as an underachiever because of command issues early in his career, his pedigree as a “phenom” prospect in the minor leagues, and his lack of dominant strike out numbers in the big leagues.  It seems like a peculiar reaction, many baseball people overrated him as a prospect to the point where today he might be considered underrated in his prime of his career.  Accounting for his youth and durability, Jackson surely entered this off-season expecting to sign a multi-year deal (rumors were he was seeking a 4-year contract and that he received some 3-year offers) but decided to turn down those offers to remain in the National League and re-enter free agency next winter, undoubtedly in search of his ideal contract.

I digress at this point to ponder what the Nationals are going to do now with their starting rotation, as it would appear that there are four spots spoken for with Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, and now Edwin Jackson.  The 5^th starter position now has three strong candidates with Chien-Ming Wang, John Lannan, and Ross Detwiler, none of whom profiles particularly well as a reliever.  With Detwiler out of minor league options and Wang and Lannan not belonging in the minor leagues at this point in their professional careers, my immediate thought is that the Nationals will try to use this surplus to acquire another hitter, preferably a center fielder, before Opening Day.  How this situation shakes out immediately becomes the Nationals biggest storyline for Spring Training and a subject that will be expounded upon in the future.

While this signing further creates a logjam in the starting rotation, Edwin Jackson immediately becomes one of, if not the best, 4^th starters in baseball and the Nationals are clearly a better team now than before this signing.  It is difficult to view this move in a vacuum, as there will be corresponding moves as a result, but signing an above-average, durable starting pitcher with postseason experience to only a 1-year deal will always be viewed favorably in context of risk vs. reward.  Granted the financial obligation is fairly sizable, especially for a mid-market payroll like the Nationals, but to acquire a pitcher of Jackson’s skill level for only a 1-year commitment likely makes this one of the best value signings this off-season.  Bottom line, the Nationals have made a clear upgrade to their starting rotation for a relatively minimal cost and now possess the quality starting pitching depth needed to make a legitimate run at the playoffs this season.

 
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NatsGM Grade ->      B+

This “Tip of the Fedora” is dedicated to MLB Network’s new daily program Clubhouse Confidential – I strongly recommend this show, especially to the more numbers-oriented baseball fan.  Brian Kenny is the host and does a nice job of explaining the sometimes complicated sabermetrics jargon while keeping the show moving.  Kudos to everyone involved, well-done-

I encourage you to follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, email me your questions and comments to NationalsGM@gmail.com, and “Like” me on Facebook search NatsGM.

As it has been a relatively quiet month in terms of activity with the Nationals, I have been especially pleased with the amount of questions I have received both on Twitter and through email.  I respond to each and every message sent to me, either directly or in this segment “Dear NatsGM”, so please continue to send your questions to me and if I happen to respond to one in a future edition, I will send you a prize.  Without further ado, here is the latest installment of the soon-to-be famous “Dear NatsGM”.

“Raven’s Fan” from Dundalk, MD -> “Dear NatsGM, what is your early 2012 MLB Draft Top 10 look like and what is your early prediction for the Nationals selection?”

With the Division-1 college baseball season set to begin in the next few weeks, I thought this might be a fun time to give my preseason Top 10 2012 draft-eligible prospects.  While the 2012 draft class will have a tough time matching the talent and hype of the 2011 class, the high school talent available is more impressive than most years, and there is depth in college starting pitching as well, just not the high-end talent that was available last season.

As for a guess with the Nationals, it is far too early to venture a guess with any sort of knowledge, but factoring in their fondness for physically big, hard-throwing college pitchers, in addition to the fact that they traded away three upper-level pitching prospects to acquire Gio Gonzalez in December, I am thinking their preference would be to see a college pitcher, preferably with some polish and track record of success, as their top player available when they pick at number 16 in June.  Here is my current Top 10 for June’s draft:

#1) Deven Marrero SS Arizona St.

#2) Mark Appel RHP Stanford University

#3) Lucas Giolito RHP HS California

#4) Mike Zunino Catcher University of Florida

#5) Kevin Gausman RHP Louisiana St.

#6) Byron Buxton OF HS Georgia

#7) Victor Roache OF Georgia Southern

#8) Chris Beck RHP Georgia Southern

#9) Max Fried LHP HS California

#10) Michael Wacha RHP Texas A&M

#16 Nationals -> Kyle Zimmer RHP University of San Francisco

Expect far more draft coverage in the coming months, so please continue to send me your draft questions – thanks for participating!

NL_Beast via Twitter -> “Dear NatsGM” what are your thoughts on the Prince Fielder signing for Detroit?

And I thought Little Caesars pizza was borderline inedible… apparently someone is eating it by the truck load… Wow, 9-years and $214 million dollars – two fundamental lessons learned from this signing:  First, Never, ever doubt Mr. Boras and secondly, always fear his mystery team.

As others have written quite well on this subject, I see this as a nice offensive upgrade in the short-term for the Tigers in their quest to replace Victor Martinez’s offense in 2012 and makes them the clear favorite in the AL Central this season but I wonder how many years and dollars at the end of this contract becomes dead weight.  Also, as daunting as Prince Fielder’s bat is in the middle of a lineup, I would think Detroit could have made themselves a stronger overall team spreading those $23 million dollars over the rest of their roster, specifically by adding another starting pitcher, a reliever or two, another outfielder and a designated hitter.

This generic levitra india version of sildenafil citrate brought a remarkable revolution among the ED sufferers. As there is very little motion and a great volume of accumulation of http://robertrobb.com/az-conservatives-snooze-over-their-own-administrative-state/ cialis sale fluid in the abdomen. To conclude, additional common cause of snoring is buying viagra in canada why not look here complications from certain allergies or diseases. It is no wonder that purchase cheap viagra More Info his sermons are so popular. Finally, I also question how much of a defensive downgrade the team will see by shifting Miguel Cabrera to 3B and playing Prince Fielder at 1B this season as manager Jim Leyland has indicated, while also questioning the fit down the road when Victor Martinez’s knee recovers in 2013, as I do not believe Cabrera to be an everyday defensive 3B, and I see both Martinez and Fielder as first basemen or designated hitters, thus leaving three players for two positions.  Overall I give the Detroit’s owner credit for identifying a weakness and making an impressive financial commitment to improve his team, but overall, I think this contract will look borderline foolish in a few seasons.  Thank you for writing and your Twitter name is a pure 80 on the 20/80 scale.

@NatsRTheFuture via Twitter -> “@NatsGMdotcom, besides the General Manager position for the Nationals, what would be your ideal job in baseball today?”

Interesting question and solid Twitter account name – the two jobs that immediately come to mind would be as a General Manager or the Director of Amateur Scouting.  While the scouting job would appease my appreciation for the scouting and player development process in baseball, how could one not choose the General Manager position?  Briefly, there would be five major criteria I would be looking for in an “ideal” General Manager job.

First, I would want to take over a team beginning a rebuild, as I would prefer to start from scratch and would relish the challenge of building a winning team through the draft and scouting and development rather than taking over an already established and well-positioned team.  Secondly, I would insist on an owner with a long track record of a sustained mid-to-high major league payroll, a reputation for not meddling in baseball decisions, along with the willingness to spend in free agency, the draft, internationally, and every other part of the organization.  Next, I would insist on full authority of all baseball decisions besides payroll (he or she cuts the checks, ultimately the owner makes that decision), but otherwise I would want full autonomy on all baseball decisions.

Another important factor would be that the team’s current payroll did not have many, if any, undesirable long-term salary commitments, and the fewer long-term contracts, the better.  Finally, it would be more appealing if the team was not completely barren of talent, both at the major league level and in the team’s farm system.  Understandably, this team cannot have a large stockpile of talent, otherwise, they would not be rebuilding in the first place, but a tradable player or two in the majors, along with a handful of solid prospects would be a nice foundation to begin rebuilding.

Using the above criteria, and eliminating the Washington Nationals General Manager position from consideration, three General Manager jobs immediate stand out to me: the New York Mets, Chicago Cubs, and Houston Astros.  All three are similar in that they are all rebuilding their major league club, have a track record of solid to expensive payrolls, and do not have many undesirable long-term financial commitments.  The question marks and lack of ownership certainty with the Mets immediately makes them less desirable than the Cubs and Astros positions.  Comparing the remaining two, the Cubs have slightly better talent, both in the majors and in the minors, but do have substantially more financial commitments in the future.  While the allure of the almost completely blank slate that Houston provides, along with the top pick in June’s amateur draft would be incredibly enticing, the chance to turn the Cubs around as their General Manager and win their first World Series since 1908 would make it the job I would most want currently in baseball.

@JamesPole via Twitter -> “@NatsGMdotcom, what are your top 5 baseball movies of all-time?”

Great question – though I am by no means Roger Ebert, as I tend to see a movie in the theatre about as often as Mister Rogers updates his sweater collection.  Formulating a top 5 and placing them in order was extremely difficult, but here is the official NatsGM’s List of Top Baseball Movies:

1) Major League

2) Bad News Bears (The Original)

3) Field of Dreams

4) The Sandlot

5) Moneyball

Honorable Mention -> The Natural, Bull Durham, Sugar, Summer Catch, and Eight Men Out

Let me turn this question back to you, the readers, especially the movie buffs… Am I overlooking any movies?  Which films should be higher or lower on this list?  Please share your thoughts in the comments section below.  Thanks again for writing and for such a fun question.

Thank you to those who wrote me this month and participated in this edition of “Dear NatsGM”.  As always, I thank you for reading and encourage you to continue to spread the word.

A somber “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to my friend and fraternity brother, Ryan, who passed away last week from health complications.  We had drifted apart a bit over the years, but I will always remember him as one of the best guys I ever met.  We will miss you friend, you passed far too soon.

I encourage you to follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, email me your questions and comments to NationalsGM@gmail.com, and “Like” me on Facebook search NatsGM.

After little activity in recent weeks, except for some internet rumors about a first baseman named Prince, Thursday the Washington Nationals announced that they agreed to terms with right-handed relief pitcher Brad Lidge on a 1-year contract, reportedly for $1 million dollars plus incentives.  Lidge owns a career 3.44 ERA, an 11.95 K/9 ratio, and 223 total saves in his 10-year career spent with Philadelphia and Houston.  Lidge, 35, has the distinction of closing out the final game of the 2008 World Series for the Phillies and is also unfortunately the infamous pitcher that allowed the moonshot home run to Albert Pujols in Game 5 of the 2005 NLCS while as a member of the Astros.

Brad Lidge was 0-2 last season in 25 appearances with the Phillies, enjoying a 1.40 ERA in only 19.1 total innings, striking out 23 batters while allowing 13 walks.  Lidge did not make an appearance until after the All-Star break as he recovered from an injury to his pitching shoulder.  While his results were terrific after returning last season, he was still available as there was a large supply of late-inning relievers on the market this winter and because his average fastball velocity last season was 89.0mph, down from a career 94.8mph, and his devastating slider averaged 80.9mph, off from a career average of 85.8mph (thank you Fangraphs.com).   With such a steep drop in velocity, one can easily understand the hesitation from other general managers, but according to GM Mike Rizzo, the Nationals gave Lidge an enhanced MRI to his shoulder and the team doctors cleared him prior to agreeing to terms on a contract.

Assuming his shoulder is healthy and his punishing fastball/slider combination continues to recover after a full off-season of rest and strengthening, Lidge could help in a variety of roles, most likely pitching the 7^th/8^th innings in addition to Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, and Henry Rodriguez and mentoring an otherwise youthful bullpen.  Obviously there is little way of knowing if he will remain healthy this season, but signing Brad Lidge further bolsters an already deep pitching staff, while also demonstrating the value of patiently waiting for the free agent market for relief pitching to subside, as the supply and demand of relievers each winter allows for bargains closer to the arrival of spring training.  This signing involves little risk for the Nationals because of the 1-year commitment, small financial considerations, and bullpen depth already within the organization but if his blazing fastball and demoralizing slider return, the rewards the team will reap will make this a tremendous gamble.  In my opinion, Brad Lidge is one of the best free agent contract values this off-season, and a signing I fully endorse.

NatsGM’s Grade ->     A-
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This “Tip of the Fedora” goes to author Jonah Keri – I just finished reading his book “The Extra 2%” and it was, in one word, terrific.  I thoroughly enjoyed it and would recommend it to all baseball fans as it provides a nice insight into the Tampa Bay Rays and the inner-workings of a MLB franchise.

I encourage you to follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, email me your questions and comments to NationalsGM@gmail.com, and “Like” me on Facebook search NatsGM.