After commenting earlier this week about the best front office transactions made this off-season, it seemed appropriate to examine some of the more curious moves made by teams this winter as well.  At the time these moves occurred, each caused me to pause and ask the logic behind them and if the front office was keeping with their process.  Therefore, in dedication to the under-appreciated 90s band C&C Music Factory, these are my choices for the most questionable moves of the off-season, or said differently, “Things that make you go Hmmmm”.

Honorable Mention: Washington Nationals trade Brad Peacock, A.J. Cole, Derek Norris, and Tom Milone to Oakland for Gio Gonzalez and Robert Gilliam, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim sign Albert Pujols to a 10-year $240 million dollar contract, the Oakland Athletics sign Coco Crisp to a 2-year $14 million dollar deal, the Arizona Diamondbacks sign Jason Kubel for 2-years and $15 million dollars, and the San Francisco Giants signing reliever Javier Lopez for 2-years and $8.5 million dollars-

#5 – Prince Fielder signs with the Detroit Tigers, 9-years $214 million

In addition to the “all you can eat Little Caesar’s pizza”, Prince Fielder signing for 9-years $214 million is another masterful job by agent Scott Boras, as most analysts questioned the terms Prince would eventually sign for with the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, and other large market teams having little interest in the slugger.  I give Tigers’ owner Mike Illitch credit for recognizing the void left after Victor Martinez suffered a season-ending knee injury in January and seeking the best possible replacement available.  That said, if the Tigers continue with their plan to shift Miguel Cabrera to third base to accommodate Fielder, I fear that the team will be woeful defensively and cost themselves a large percentage of the benefits of adding such an outstanding hitter.  Finally, there is little chance this contract is seen in a positive light five years from today, as the long-term ramifications of paying a probable designated hitter $24 million dollars per season in years 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 will impair this franchise in future seasons.

#4 – Oakland trades RHP Trevor Cahill and LHP Craig Breslow to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Jarrod Parker, Collin Cowgill, and Ryan Cook.

Earlier this week, I gave Arizona General Manager Kevin Towers the “Best Move of the Off-Season” award for receiving Cahill and Breslow from Oakland and only having to part with one elite prospect, Jarrod Parker, along with two solid but complementary pieces in Cook and Cowgill, in order to do so.  In light of the overwhelming packages the Padres received for Mat Latos (a comparable but better pitcher) and Oakland received for Gio Gonzalez (a lefty but VERY comparable player to Cahill), this package just seems insufficient, especially with the inclusion of competent reliever Breslow to boot.  True, from Oakland’s perspective, this trade hinges on whether Parker reaches his ceiling as a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, but they should have insisted on another impressive prospect to part with Cahill, an established #2 starting pitcher signed to a team friendly contract through 2017.

#3 – Jonathan Papelbon signs with Philadelphia Phillies, 4-years $50 million

Jonathan Papelbon is an outstanding closer with a solid track record of success with the Red Sox, but the Phillies already had Ryan Madson, a superior reliever to Papelbon, in-house and they allowed him to sign with Cincinnati for only 1-year and $8.5 million, less than 20% of what Papelbon received.  Papelbon just completed what is likely his best season at age 30, and the Phillies signed him after a career year for his age 31-34 seasons, certainly the decline phase of his impressive career.  This expensive purchase will force the Phillies to go with the projected underwhelming platoon of Laynce Nix and Juan Pierre in left field, and leaves them with more question marks in their starting rotation than in recent seasons.  I do not question any General Manager wanting Papelbon as his closer, however I question not re-signing Madson and fear this allocation of resources will hinder their overall record in 2012 and future seasons.

#2 – Michael Cuddyer signs with the Colorado Rockies, 3-years $31.5 million
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Nothing against Cuddyer who is an above-average player with a solid right-handed bat but below-average defensive skills, but how much of an upgrade is he from Seth Smith, whom the Rockies shipped off to Oakland in order to make room for Cuddyer in right field.  Seth Smith’s batting line from 2011 was .284/.347/.483 and Cuddyer’s batting line was .284/.346/.459, not to mention Smith is 3 years younger, will make only $2.415 million dollars this year, and is under team control through 2014.  No, Seth Smith is not an all-star, but he is no worse a ballplayer than Cuddyer and is projected to earn less than half as much over the next three seasons.  This move is truly puzzling, as the Rockies finished last season with 73 wins and as of now, Cuddyer is their biggest addition this winter, therefore to pay $10+ million dollars per season for a marginal at best improvement on a team not projected to make the playoffs makes little sense from Colorado’s perspective.

#1 – Heath Bell signed by the Miami Marlins, 3-years $27 million

“Option A” 2011 stats –  64.1 Innings, 4.06 ERA, 1.212 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 2.66 K/BB, and 36 SVs

“Option B” 2011 stats –  62.2 Innings, 2.44 ERA, 1.149 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 2.57 K/BB, and 43 SVs

In this blind comparison of relief pitchers, without any additional knowledge one would reasonably make the instant decision that Option B is preferable, although besides the ERA category (not the best indicator of a relief pitcher’s success or lack thereof) both pitchers are remarkably similar.  Option A was “The Artist formerly known as Leo Nunez” Juan Oviedo, the Marlins closer from last season, and Option B is Heath Bell, the new Miami closer.  Upon further inspection, closer was not a major area of need for the Marlins this winter and yet, they spent handsomely to negligibly improve the position.  Miami has signed Bell for his age 34-36 seasons in which he should continue to decline, and the club should have allocated those resources differently (center field, starting pitching, bullpen, and team psychologists) to more demonstrably improve their win-loss record in 2012.

This “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to the aforementioned C&C Music Factory, a great musical group from my youth that provided inspiration for this column and numerous YouTube searches – Cheers to them!

I encourage you to follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, email me at NationalsGM@gmail.com, and “Like” me on Facebook search NatsGM.

Now that ESPN has slowed down its near-obsessive NFL coverage, and pitchers and catchers report to spring training later this week, I thought it was an appropriate time to review the moves from this winter’s Hot Stove season and rank my favorites.  Although I do not use a formal scoring system, each move was judged on the terms of the contract, the risk verses reward for the club, and the potential to improve the team.  For the most part, General Managers and their front offices have shown restraint this winter and done a nice job staying true to their process, but these moves, in particular, stand out as the best of this off-season.

Honorable Mention: Washington Nationals sign Edwin Jackson 1-year $11 million, Cincinnati Reds sign RHP Ryan Madson for 1-year $8.5 million, New York Yankees sign RHP Hiroki Kuroda 1-year $10 million, Tampa Bay Rays sign first baseman Carlos Pena 1-year $7.25 million, and the team that signs Roy Oswalt cheaply-

#5 -> San Diego Padres acquire first baseman Yonder Alonso, catcher Yasmani Grandal, right-handed starting pitcher Edinson Volquez, and reliever Brad Boxberger from Cincinnati for RHP Mat Latos

This does not slight Cincinnati’s decision to trade for him, as Mat Latos is a terrific top-of-the-rotation starter and a solid fit with the Reds, but San Diego received quite a haul in return, as Alonso, Grandal, and Boxberger have the potential to be long-term solutions for the Padres at first base, catcher, and closer, respectfully.  Furthermore, the optimist in me would point out that Edinson Volquez, under team control through 2013, has talent, winning 17 games and appearing in the all-star game in 2008, and has the potential to rebound nicely in the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park.  It appears as though it will take San Diego another season or two before they are prepared to contend for the playoffs, therefore, trading away Latos at this time was the proper move, and GM Josh Byrnes did well to acquire so much major league ready talent in this deal.

#4 -> St. Louis Cardinals sign OF Carlos Beltran for 2-years $26 million

Although he will be 35 in April, Beltran is still an outstanding hitter as his .300/.385/.525 batting line from 2011 shows, and his reasonable defense in right field will allow Lance Berkman to shift back to his more natural defensive position of first base.  Make no mistake, Beltran will not make up for the loss of Albert Pujols, but signing him for only two seasons makes this a solid gamble, as his addition should make up for 70%-80% of Albert’s production at a fraction of the cost.

#3 -> Seattle Mariners acquire catcher/first baseman Jesus Montero and RHP Hector Noesi from the Yankees for RHP Michael Pineda and prospect Jose Campos

Let me start by saying that I think the Yankees made a solid move as well, as Pineda was a much needed improvement to their starting rotation and Campos is an underrated prospect, while trading away two pieces that they can replace internally.   Similarly, the Mariners also dealt from their strength, namely impressive starting pitching depth, to receive Jesus Montero, a young, impact slugger that slots perfectly in the heart of the Mariners’ offensive-starved lineup, and Hector Noesi, a personal favorite of mine that was consistently overlooked in New York – do not be surprised if Noesi takes advantage of the transition from the AL East and Yankee Stadium to the AL West and Safeco Field and produces a few seasons similar to Michael Pineda’s 2011 season (3.74 ERA, 171 innings pitched, a 3.15 K/BB rate and 3.4 Wins Above Replacement).  Trading away Pineda and Campos is a gamble for any General Manager, but Montero and Noesi are such perfect fits in Seattle that it is one of my favorite moves this winter.

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This trade has been impressively dissected by Nationals fans, and has both its fans and detractors, but if nothing else, we can recognize that Oakland General Manager Billy Beane targeted “the right” players in the Nationals farm system and deserves credit for receiving such a substantial haul.  Gio Gonzalez is a terrific fit for the Nationals, and excellent, cost-controlled left-handed pitching is always at a premium, nonetheless, to receive three Top 100 prospects in addition to Tom Milone, a strike throwing major league ready starting pitcher, is one of the stronger prospect packages traded away in recent memory.  For an organization in transition, Oakland capitalized on Washington’s desire for a power left-handed starting pitcher and rapidly improved the quality and depth of their farm system in one trade, an impressive feat.

#1 -> Arizona Diamondbacks acquire RHP Trevor Cahill and LHP Craig Breslow from Oakland for minor leaguers Jarrod Parker, Collin Cowgill, and Ryan Cook

As impressive as the haul was for Gio Gonzalez, the package of Parker, Cowgill, and Cook seems paltry in comparison for Trevor Cahill.  Cahill and Gonzalez have similar career statistics, and Cahill is two years younger and had already been signed to a favorable contract extension, meaning it is reasonable to expect a similar bounty for both pitchers; while Parker is probably a stronger prospect than any received from Washington, Cowgill and Cook project to be complementary pieces, not above-average starters like Cole, Peacock, and Norris.

Arizona General Manager Kevin Towers did his best David Blaine impression in magically turning one top prospect (Parker), a 24-year old relief prospect (Cook), and 25-year old outfielder (Cowgill) into a marvelous #2 starting pitcher signed through 2017 like Trevor Cahill, a ground ball pitcher perfectly suited for Chase Field, along with a useful reliever in Craig Breslow.  This trade seemed like a steal for Arizona at the time, and the package Oakland received looks feeble in comparison to the return San Diego obtained for Mat Latos and Oakland collected for Gio Gonzalez weeks later, making this my choice for the best move by any General Manager this off-season.

This “Tip of the Fedora” is a Happy Valentine’s Day wish to everyone, and a special nod to my two favorite Valentines, my wife Mrs. NatsGM, and my Mom – I hope everyone has a lovely day.

I encourage you to follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, email me at NationalsGM@gmail.com, and “Like” me on Facebook search NatsGM.

As the ink has now dried on the Edwin Jackson contract and Gio Gonzalez’s extension, I thought this might be an interesting time to think about the possibility of the Nationals trading from their current starting pitching depth to acquire a much needed bat in center field.  Chien-Ming Wang was signed as a free agent this winter, rendering him untradeable until June, and Ross Detwiler’s youth and potential makes him someone the organization wants to keep, leaving veteran left-handed pitcher John Lannan as the most likely starting pitcher to be traded prior to Opening Day.  Using this logic, I have tried to look around the major leagues for a possible trading partner, ideally a team having a surplus of outfielders and a clear need for a reliable starting pitcher.  So in a grand homage to Monty Hall, here is a baseball edition of “Let’s Make a Deal”!

Nationals trade LHP John Lannan to the Chicago Cubs for OF Marlon Byrd and a “Prospect”

Why this trade makes sense?

The Cubs are rebuilding and have center field prospect Brett Jackson ready and waiting for an opportunity in Chicago, thus the chance to clear a space for him, receive a pitcher under control through 2013, and clear about $1.5 million in payroll in 2012 would seem to fit within their plans.  While Marlon Byrd is not a long-term solution for the Nationals, he would provide solid defense in center field and his career .281/.339/.420 batting line would represent a large increase in production from last season.

Why it might not work?

This deal would make more sense from the Cubs perspective if they had already traded RHP Matt Garza, as they would have opened a spot for a starting pitcher and would have a greater need for a productive innings-eater like John Lannan.  Although Byrd would clearly improve the team in 2012, I believe Lannan has a bit more overall value, as he is under club control through 2013: this belief leads to the assumption that the Nationals would insist on an additional prospect or player be included in such a deal, making a trade harder to foresee as the Cubs are looking to rebuild, not trade from their farm system.

Nationals trade LHP John Lannan + “Prospects” to Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for OF Peter Bourjos

Why this trade makes sense?

There is a clear fit with the Nationals and Peter Bourjos, and well-respected baseball columnist Nick Cafardo from the Boston Globe mentioned in his column this past weekend rumors of a Lannan-for-Bourjos swap.  Unless the Angels want to count on RHP Jerome Williams (remember him from 2007 Nationals fans) as their 5^th starter this season, Lannan would represent a clear upgrade to the back-end of Anaheim’s rotation.

Why it might not work?

Even with the presence of elite prospect Mike Trout prepared to take over the center field position in case of a trade, Bourjos is still worth significantly more than Lannan, and I question how many more prospects the Nationals would part with in one off-season, as the Gio Gonzalez trade depleted much of the depth in the farm system.  While I would support virtually any trade to bring Peter Bourjos to Washington, I struggle to imagine a hypothetical trade that makes sense from the Angels’ perspective.

Nationals trade LHP John Lannan + a “Prospect”  to the Minnesota Twins for OF Ben Revere

Why this trade makes sense?
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The Minnesota Twins currently have center fielder Denard Span signed to a long-term contract, not to mention the organization’s #2 prospect according to Baseball America is Joe Benson, also a solid center field prospect, maturing in AAA.  Revere, while a strong defensive outfielder, does not profile in left field because of his lack of power and seems somewhat redundant with the presence of Span and Benson.  Revere has an impressive career .385 on-base percentage in the minor leagues and would be a nice fit as Washington’s center fielder and leadoff hitter.  Finally, John Lannan seems like a prototypical Minnesota Twins pitcher, with his strong ground ball tendencies and lack of overwhelming stuff.

Why it might not work?

As of the present moment, it does not appear that Minnesota has anyone to replace Revere in left field this season and they seem to have adequate depth in their starting rotation, meaning this deal would force other moves from the Twins, not an ideal scenario this late in the off-season.  While a trade between these two teams might seem to make sense on the surface, upon closer inspection, it does not appear like a good fit at the present time.

Nationals trade LHP John Lannan to the Colorado Rockies for OF Charlie Blackmon

Why this trade makes sense?

Although the Rockies traded for Jeremy Guthrie last week, looking at their current depth chart, it certainly appears as though they could use another reliable starting pitcher.  Besides Guthrie and Jhoulys Chacin, the Rockies starting pitching staff looks youthful and unproven headed into 2012, and adding 180+ innings of a proficient ground ball pitcher like Lannan in Coors Field seems like a natural fit.  Blackmon may also be available as they have Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, and Michael Cuddyer as starters in the outfield, with Tyler Colvin as a backup and prospect Tim Wheeler waiting in the wings.

Why it might not work?

A deal between these two clubs seemed like a perfect match prior to the Rockies trading for a similar pitcher in Jeremy Guthrie, however, Colorado still needs dependable starting pitching far more than an outfielder.  From the Nationals perspective, there is a question of whether Blackmon can be an everyday starting center fielder in the major leagues, or if he is destined to a career more suited as a backup.  Blackmon’s minor league batting line of .316/.376/.475, left-handed bat and plus athleticism says he could be a starting quality player, but there are enough questions surrounding his ultimate future that the Nationals may hesitate to part with Lannan’s talents.

Sticking with the theme of “Let’s Make a Deal”, I would assume Monty Hall would tell the Nationals as contestants that they had “won” the Chicago Cubs offer of Marlon Byrd and a prospect for John Lannan, as this trade is the most plausible of the four discussed above.  Of course, the Nationals would ask to see what was behind Door #1 and somehow hope to pull off a trade for Peter Bourjos or another more long-term solution: unfortunately trades in major league baseball do not work like television game shows, and the likelihood of the Nationals substantially improving from the Cubs offer is unlikely. Like many Nationals fans, I expect the team to part with John Lannan prior to Opening Day and think GM Mike Rizzo would be making a shrewd “deal” if he could receive Marlon Byrd and a prospect from the Cubs in return.

This “Tip of the Fedora” is a big Thank You to my readers – The Washington City Paper is running their “Best of 2012” poll, and one of their categories in the People and Places section is “Best Local Blog/Blogger”.  Many have contacted me to say they have voted for me and NatsGM.com, for which I am deeply appreciative.  If you have not voted as of yet, I humbly ask that you consider using this link http://www.washingtoncitypaper.com/bestofpoll/ and vote for NatsGM.  Thank you so much for your support!

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Lost in the hullabaloo of Super Bowl Sunday (congratulations to the New York Giants and their fans), yesterday the Nationals announced that they have re-signed outfielder Rick Ankiel to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training.  Ankiel, 32 years old, batted .239/.296/.363 with 9 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 415 at-bats last season in Washington.  This spring, Ankiel will be competing with Roger Bernadina and Mike Cameron for bench outfielder positions, where his above-average defensive skills and left-handed bat likely gives him an advantage over the other two to make the Opening Day roster.  In addition, if the Nationals decide to send Bryce Harper to the minor leagues to begin the season, the winner of this “Three-Way Dance” is in line to see significant time in center field early in the year.

Ankiel, owner of the strongest outfield arm in baseball, spent the majority of last season starting in center field and batting either leadoff or 2nd, although his career .246/.309/.423 batting line and proficiency to play all three outfield positions make him more suited to a reserve outfielder role rather than as a starter.  Certainly Ankiel is not the permanent solution in center field GM Mike Rizzo and Nationals fans lusted for at the beginning of this off-season, however, his WAR (Wins Above Replacement) value for the past 5 seasons are 1.5, 1.9, 0.1, 0.8, 1.4, not spectacular numbers but certainly those of a deserving major leaguer capable of helping a team off the bench.

Obviously there is little to quibble about when signing a veteran player to a minor league contract due to the lack of risk, but I particularly like this addition, as Ankiel’s defense is first-rate and if protected in a rather strict platoon with a right-handed batter, he can adequately manage center field until midseason, when it is expected Bryce Harper will permanently arrive in Washington’s outfield.  Once Harper debuts and the starting outfield consists of himself, Mike Morse, and Jayson Werth, Ankiel can then revert back to his more suited role as a backup outfielder and defensive replacement.  While this signing is not as significant as Edwin Jackson or the acquisition of Gio Gonzalez earlier this winter, Ankiel’s versatility and left-handed power should improve the Nationals bench in 2012, making this a subtle, quality upgrade to the roster and one that should not be overlooked.
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