Bring Seth Smith to Washington

Amidst the many positives from the “Take Back the Park” initiative this past weekend against the rival Philadelphia Phillies, early in the game Sunday evening Jayson Werth broke his left wrist attempting to catch a sinking line drive in shallow right field.  Werth had surgery to repair the damage Monday afternoon and the initial prognosis is that he will be out of the lineup for 10-12 weeks, leaving the Nationals to pick up the slack until early August.  Instead of celebrating winning the series against the Phillies and leading the NL East, now the Nationals front office must ponder how to play their outfield with Mike Morse out until mid-June and Werth out until August.

Until Mike Morse returns, Bryce Harper should feel confident that he will be penciled into the lineup every day at one of the corner outfield positions (most likely right field), and Rick Ankiel, overextended as an everyday player, should provide enough above-average defense and occasional power to passably manage center field.  Tyler Moore is better suited as a pinch hitter and occasional starter at this point in his career, leaving Xavier Nady and Roger Bernadina to battle for playing time in left field.  The Nationals could elect a strict Bernadina/Nady platoon, but with Nady’s rapidly declining bat speed and putrid .119/.161/.186 batting line, and Bernadina’s career numbers of .239/.304/.361 (.243/.310/.370 against right-handed pitching) leaves far too massive a hole in an already struggling lineup.  In light of this, I believe GM Mike Rizzo needs to look outside the organization and make a trade, with the best plausible option at this time being Oakland Athletics outfielder Seth Smith.

Smith, 29, has started rather slowly this season, producing a .209/.365/.313 batting line with 2 home runs in 67 at-bats.  However, spanning his six year major league career, Smith possesses a .272/.349/.476 batting line with 53 home runs in 1352 at-bats, and according to the defensive metrics, his defense is average in both left and right field. (Thanks Fangraphs.com)  In addition, Smith, a solidly built athlete with a strong left-handed bat, has hit 15+ home runs in each of the last three seasons, and his career .349 on-base percentage would represent a significant upgrade to the projected Bernadina/Nady platoon in left field.

A recent diagnosis of levitra online cheap Osteoporosis may benefit existing back pain by attempts at correcting the body posture and training of child care staff is diverse. Tadalfil works very nicely as it enables the flow of blood towards the penile organ is less the man eventually turns out to be the victim of impotence. order cialis A number of men suffer from sexual dysfunction problems including premature ejaculation and erectile dysfunction generic levitra 5mg (ED), which prevents them from experiencing full pleasure during sexual intercourse. I’m pretty sure it’s illegal to gamble online, which is buying generic cialis probably not, once you learn what to search for. Granted, it is difficult making trades early in the season for many reasons, but taking into account Athletics GM Billy Beane’s off-season trades of Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, and Andrew Bailey, Oakland has clearly stated their intention to rebuild for the future when they can relocate to a new stadium in San Jose. In addition Oakland possesses some quality outfield depth, as they traded for Smith and Josh Reddick and signed Yoenis Cespedes, Coco Crisp, and Jonny Gomes as free agents this off-season.  Not to mention, as seen in the Gio Gonzalez trade, the Nationals have a cordial working relationship with the Athletics front office.  Seth Smith makes $2.415 million this season in his first year of arbitration, and for a small market team in the midst of rebuilding, it would be foolish for Oakland not to entertain trade offers for him.

Although this idea I have proposed does not represent the long-term solution in center field Nationals fans have clamored for, I recommend GM Mike Rizzo inquire about the availability of outfielder Seth Smith, as he would represent a significant upgrade from a platoon of Bernadina and Nady.  With the Nationals farm system still feeling the effects of the Gio Gonzalez trade and with most teams still chasing the postseason, the best course of action is a smaller trade to bridge the gap until Morse and Werth return while minimizing the loss of further depth in the minors.  Although Oakland has started the season well, they are lacking delusions of playing in the postseason, and taking into account their outfield depth, I would expect the Athletics to be willing trade partners.  I will not pretend to know what would tempt Oakland to part with Smith, but they acquired him in January from Colorado for the underwhelming package of pitchers Guillermo Moscoso and Josh Outman, so I would surmise that two prospects with potential would intrigue the Athletics front office enough to part with Smith.  I would offer the Athletics two minor league pitchers (Robert Gilliam and Danny Rosenbaum perhaps?) and hope it entices Oakland enough to bring Mr. Smith to Washington.

Follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, “Like” my Facebook page search NatsGM, and email me at NationalsGM@gmail.com.  Thank you for reading!

More on Tyler Moore

Rather overlooked in the midst of Bryce Harper’s debut over the weekend, the Nationals recalled 1B/OF Tyler Moore from Triple-A Syracuse to replace Mark DeRosa, who was forced to the disabled list with an oblique injury.  Moore, a 16th round draft pick (481st overall) in 2008 out of Mississippi State, has diligently climbed through the Nationals system since signing his professional contract.  Moore is yet another example of the terrific work the Nationals scouting and development staff have done in recent years finding valuable major leaguers deeper in the draft, namely John Lannan (11th round 2005), Craig Stammen (12th round 2005), Cole Kimball (12th round 2006), Tom Milone (10th round 2008), and Steve Lombardozzi (19th round 2008).  This season, Moore continued to punish opposing pitching with a .286/.364/.597 batting line, 7 home runs, 20 runs batted in, and 20 strikeouts covering 77 at-bats.

Tyler Moore, the Nationals 2010 Minor League Player of the Year, hit 31 home runs in back-to-back seasons in 2010 and 2011 at High-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg, and in doing so, quickly forced himself into the team’s future plans.  Moore has a career batting line of .266/.319/.487 with 84 home runs and 461 strikeouts spanning five minor league seasons and 1,784 at-bats.  Moore possesses solid right-handed power, especially to left field, but has some length to his swing which causes him to strikeout at a fairly high rate.  Defensively, his solid frame (6-2 215 lbs.) and fringy athleticism makes him a solid defender at first base, and his arm is passable for left field; in addition, I watched Moore take infield at third base during spring training and although there is massive difference between infield practice in spring training and a regular season game, I am convinced Moore could play an adequate third base in a pinch.

While Tyler Moore’s career probably tops out as a quality reserve, his perseverance in making himself into a prospect and the number of doubters he has proven wrong each year makes me hesitate to label him just a backup.   That said, the likelihood of a right-handed slugger with a career on-base percentage less than .320 making it at first base or left field are slim, pointing toward a career as a bench player with some pop.  Considering the dearth of power hitting in major league baseball, a young man with 62 home runs the past two seasons, a career slugging percentage of .487, and some position flexibility stands a realistic chance to carve out a career as an asset off the bench.  The Nationals have struggled in past seasons with a lack of production from their backups – Perhaps they have found a solution in Tyler Moore.
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I encourage you to follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, “Like” my Facebook page search NatsGM, and email me at NationalsGM@gmail.com.  Thank you for reading!

Mr. Harper comes to Washington

In light of the necessity to place Ryan Zimmerman on the 15-day disabled list with a bad shoulder, late Friday afternoon the Nationals decided to promote uber-prospect OF Bryce Harper to the major league roster.  Unfortunately, this mildly surprising decision had less to do with the preparedness of Harper for big-league pitching, as he was batting .250/.333/.375 spanning 72 at-bats in Triple-A Syracuse, and far more to do with the lack of offensive production from the team thus far.  Currently 24th in major league baseball with 71 total runs spanning 20 games, and with injuries to their two best hitters, Ryan Zimmerman and Mike Morse, the front office had little choice but to deviate from the original game plan and promote Harper earlier than anticipated.  While I am sure the front office did not expect Harper on their roster at the end of April, the offensive production from left field where Harper will play has been a woeful .097/.207/.125, thereby forcing the team to promote him to Washington.

Clearly most Nationals fans are excited for Bryce Harper’s debut in a Washington uniform, but the real question is whether or not the team is doing the smartest thing by summoning him to the major leagues.  From a business perspective, in spite of their offensive need, the Nationals sent Bryce to the minor leagues for 20+ days in order to delay his MLB service time an additional season and keep him under contract with Washington through 2018, rather than 2017 if they had made the choice to bring him directly to the big leagues out of spring training.  Therefore, GM Mike Rizzo and the Nationals front office made a wise decision financially and for the future of the franchise.

Logically, the next question is if Harper is prepared to succeed on the field at the major league level.  Many people asked me about Bryce Harper’s talents, and while I can discuss his tools and skills like other scouts, the best way I can describe him is, “imagine when you were a kid and you went to the local playground to play pickup basketball, and imagine the best player on that playground, you know the one, the kid that whichever team he was on always won… now imagine that kid is 5 years younger than everyone else on the court and that’s Bryce Harper”.  Even though in the history of major league baseball there have only been a few hitters that were successful at 19 years of age (Mel Ott in 1928, Ty Cobb in 1906, Cesar Cedeno in 1970, and Tony Conigliaro in 1964) Harper is so advanced I will happily gamble on his enormous talents.  While we should expect some growing pains and struggles as he adjusts to major league pitching, until Mike Morse returns from his injury, Bryce Harper is the Nationals best option in left field.
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True, in an ideal world Harper would receive another 250-400 at-bats in the minor leagues to refine his approach at the plate, improve against left-handed pitching, and learn to handle advanced breaking pitches, there is little debate that Harper is a drastic improvement offensively from Roger Bernadina, Xavier Nady, and Mark DeRosa currently playing left field.  Therefore, while I am not a big fan of promoting a player unless they are completely ready, I have stopped questioning the development schedule of Bryce Harper and I think the Nationals are making the proper decision in bringing him to Washington.  The future is now for this precocious youngster.

I encourage you to follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, “Like” my Facebook page search NatsGM, and email me at NationalsGM@gmail.com.  Thank you for reading!

The Return of “Dear NatsGM”

Somehow three months have passed since I have published a new edition of “Dear NatsGM” and because I have such terrific readers, my inbox is currently overflowing with emails.  Just in these few short months, we have lived through the rise and fall of Linsanity, Ozzie Guillen talking Cuban politics and quickly sticking his foot in his mouth, and E! giving a Kardashian sister yet another reality show (just kidding… I think). Therefore, in an attempt to distract my readers stuck inside working this week when they should be out enjoying the sunshine, here is Part 1 of the latest installment of “Dear NatsGM”.

Charles from Section 312 via email -> “Dear NatsGM, it was nice meeting you on Opening Day- what were your impressions of Nationals Park on Opening Day?”

Charles, it was nice meeting you as well, thank you for reading and for saying hello.  As for your question, overall it was a pleasant experience and dramatically improved from seasons past, however, there is still room for improvement.  The food and beverage lines still moved far too slowly, as I attempted to get a hot sandwich and drink and it took me more than a full inning (almost an inning and a half) to do so: this is unacceptable.  Also, while I cannot speak to this myself, I had numerous people tell me that the Nationals closed off the center field gates from letting patrons in while the team was doing their pregame introductions.  Assuming these individuals are telling the truth, this makes little sense to me, as I would think the team would want as many fans as possible in the park to welcome their first place team home for the season.

Those critiques aside, I want to commend the team for hosting a truly wonderful opening day at the park.  Granted, Cincinnati is not a large draw in terms of opposing fans, but I was stunned by the overwhelming number of Nationals hats, jerseys, and merchandise worn by the crowd.  Furthermore, the fans were passionate throughout the game and were especially energetic and loud in the later innings as the Nationals rallied to win the game in the 10th inning.

In addition to the spirited crowd, I was particularly impressed by the improved quality of the food (my steak and cheese was solid) along with the growth in quality beer options available (Dogfish Head anyone?) throughout the park.  Cheers on a job well-done!  Also, I was excited to hear that Tyler Clippard’s entrance music this season will be The Fugees “Ready or Not” – this song instantly transports me back to my high school years.  Not to mention the amusement I took shocking my Dad by knowing the words to the song: the look of confusion on his face was priceless.  Finally, in previous years the Nationals giveaway on opening day has been a souvenir cap, and recent efforts have been underwhelming, to say the least.  However, the hat this year was rather nice and of much higher quality than you would expect from a stadium giveaway and another subtle upgrade to the game day experience from the Nationals.  Incidentally, if anyone has an extra hat, please email me and let me know.

Like I said above, the Nationals did an excellent job producing a wonderful experience for their fans on opening day.  Did anyone else have something to add, either positive or negative, about opening day?  If so, please leave your comments below, I would be curious to read them.

Alden via Facebook -> “Dear NatsGM, the recent talk in my office is when we’ll see Harper called up to Washington, general consensus was mid-summer.  I disagreed.  Thoughts?”

Alden, I probably have received this question in some form or another more often than paparazzi on the red carpet this winter asked each other who is George Clooney’s new tall girlfriend.  A month ago when I was visiting Nationals spring training, I started to believe that counter to the numerous financial considerations for delaying Harper’s major league debut, that Bryce would be the opening day right fielder.  Yes, his growing pains would be considerable, but his talent would allow him to be a passable major league outfielder today.
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That being said, my current prediction is Harper arrives in Washington June 1st, the beginning of the Nationals home stand against the Braves and the Mets.  Also, if I was a gambler, I think June 1 would be an excellent over/under date for his arrival in Washington, as his arbitration clock would be delayed a full season and the absence of Mike Morse’s bat in left field will likely be wearing on the lineup by then as well.  This timeline would give Harper about 50-55 minor league games and 200-250 ABs, all while polishing his defense in center field. This timeline is aggressive and would be delayed if he injures himself at any time, but I think it takes him about 100 ABs to find his groove and another 100-150 ABs to force his way to Washington.

Thank you for writing… Anyone else want to share a prediction for Harper’s first game in Washington?

Marc via Facebook -> “Dear NatsGM, is Ian Desmond as good as his recent play or is this an illusion?”

Marc, good question and something I have been wrestling with myself, as Desmond has played better in the first two weeks of the season than at any point I can remember during his pro career.  The easy (and snarky) answer is that it is a small sample size and his numbers will quickly subside from his current  .321/.356/.446 batting line and two errors on defense.  However, I do not believe our eyes are completely deceiving us, and the answer lies somewhere in the middle.

I think we are witnessing the beginning of Desmond fulfilling the potential the Nationals have seen in him for many years.  While I agree he is currently riding a hot streak, I see Desmond settling in as a .275/.330/.410 batter with 10-15 home runs, 15-25 stolen bases, and average to slightly above-average defense at shortstop.  If he can post these type of numbers annually, it would make him a league-average (or slightly better) major league shortstop, a particularly valuable commodity in today’s game.  Here’s hoping Desmond is entering his prime and flourishing with his opportunity… Thanks for your question.

I will return in the next day or so with Part II – I sincerely thank you for the many emails you send me.  I encourage you to continue to do so, as there is nothing more enjoyable about writing NatsGM than talking baseball with each of you.  Thanks for reading and please continue to spread the word.

I urge you to follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, “Like” my Facebook page by searching NatsGM, and email me at NationalsGM@Gmail.com