Now that the June draft is in the rearview mirror and the All-Star break is rapidly approaching, one should expect the level of trade activity to dramatically increase in the upcoming weeks.  Outside of Ernesto Frieri being traded to Anaheim and Kevin Youkilis departure to Chicago over the weekend, it has been extremely quiet on the trade front thus far in 2012.  This season represents the first with the additional wild card, and the effect a 5^th playoff spot in each league has on trade activity this summer is yet another intriguing result of the new collective bargaining agreement.

The calendar now shows late-June and with a little over half a season left to play, only Kansas City, Minnesota, Oakland, Seattle, Houston, Chicago Cubs, Colorado, and San Diego can be effectively declared out of the playoff chase, and therefore, sellers.  Undoubtedly other players will be made available, but here are a few names that stand an excellent chance of changing teams in the next few weeks.

Available Hitters

Jeff Francoeur OF Kansas City Royals – Considering minor league super-prospect Wil Myers is about major league ready, it would make sense that the Royals look to make room in right field by trading Francoeur.  A terrific defensive outfielder with some right-handed pop, Francoeur is signed for next season for $7.5 million, which could prove a detriment or motivation to an acquiring team depending on their perspective.  The Cincinnati Reds might have some interest in upgrading from Chris Heisey in left field, and Francoeur could help solve their lack of right-handed power hitting in their lineup.

Carlos Quentin OF San Diego Padres – A free agent at the end of the season, San Diego could look to sign him to an extension prior to July 31^st, but if they cannot come to terms, there will be an excellent chance this right-handed slugger will be wearing a new uniform before August.  An oft-injured outfielder with immense power, Quentin will be one of the best available hitters this summer.  Quentin would surely interest San Francisco as he would represent a significant upgrade in right field.

Marco Scutaro SS/2B Colorado Rockies – A 36-year old middle infielder and free agent at the end of the year, multiple teams must be eyeing Scutaro to fill a hole at either second base or shortstop.  Scutaro has a .276/.328/.385 batting line with 4 home runs so far in 2012, and would slot nicely at second base for St. Louis or Detroit, among many other teams, making him a solid bet to change uniforms.

Josh Willingham OF Minnesota Twins – In the 1^st year of a 3-year contract signed last winter, Minnesota might not be ready to part with Willingham quite yet, nevertheless he is a 33-year old outfielder with a reputation as injury prone, and his incredible start to the season (.275 15 HRs and 49 RBI) might force the Twins to alter course and sell high.  I would expect multiple teams to show interest and a potential bidding war could net the Twins a solid prospect or two for Willingham.

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Ryan Dempster RHSP Chicago Cubs – Recently placed on the disabled list with an injury, Dempster was experiencing a career year with a 2.11 ERA over 81 innings in his last season before free agency.  The 35-year old veteran righty will fetch a solid prospect or two if he can return from his injury and pitch prior to the trade deadline, and the Cubs should be hoping for a speedy return, as they could use the boost to their mediocre farm system.

Zach Greinke RHSP Milwaukee Brewers – Rumors out of Milwaukee recently seem to indicate that if they cannot sign an extension with Greinke prior to the trade deadline, they will look to trade him before he reaches free agency this winter.  Greinke is probably pointing toward Matt Cain’s recent contract extension of 5-years $112.5 million as parameters of a deal, which would likely price him out of Milwaukee’s mid-market payroll.  The Red Sox and Yankees both desperately need another Ace-Level pitcher and it would be fascinating to see the “king’s ransom” the Brewers could command for Greinke’s services.

Brandon League RHRP Seattle Mariners – A free agent to be, League has struggled at times thus far in 2012 with a 3.69 ERA and gruesome 1.55 WHIP (Walks + Hits / Innings Pitched) but has turned it around with an outstanding month of June allowing only 3 earned runs in 10.2 innings and 8 strikeouts to boost his trade value.  League does not profile as a shutdown closer, but he would be a great asset to any team as a set-up man in the 7^th or 8^th innings, and I would be surprised if he remained a Mariner through the trade deadline.

Brett Myers RHRP Houston Astros – Shifted from the starting rotation to the closer role this season, Myers has had another excellent season in relief, pitching to a 3.55 ERA, with 16 saves, and 18 strikeouts in 25.1 innings pitched.  Myers has a vesting option in his contract for $10 million next season (not an exorbitant price if reverted back to the starting rotation) and Houston’s farm system desperately needs the prospect that Myers should obtain in a trade from a bullpen deficient team.

Huston Street RHRP San Diego Padres – Another free agent to be (after a $500k buyout) this winter, Huston Street has pitched well in San Diego so far this year, after batting some injuries earlier this spring.  A 1.50 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 18.0 innings will appeal to many teams, and as long as Street remains healthy through the July 31^st deadline, it would be shocking if the Padres GM Josh Byrnes does not trade him for another prospect to add to their outstanding farm system.

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June has already been one of the more magical months in recent baseball history, as we have witnessed R.A. Dickey on a hot streak never before seen in a knuckleball pitcher including back to back 1-hitters, a no-hitter from New York Mets pitcher Johan Santana only to be topped two weeks later with a perfect game by San Francisco righty Matt Cain, and the first major league baseball draft under the rules of the new collective bargaining agreement – Quite a month!

Amidst all the excitement in recent weeks, several of our readers have sent me some thought-provoking questions and on occasion, I like to take a few of these questions and further analyze them in a segment creatively titled “Dear NatsGM”.  In this latest installment, readers have asked me about Baltimore Orioles pitcher Jason Hammel, the Red Sox trade of Kevin Youkilis, and Nationals 4^th round pick Samford University outfielder Brandon Miller.

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Freddy via Email -> “Dear NatsGM, what are your impressions of the Nationals 4^th round selection, Samford OF Brandon Miller and have you watched him in person?”

I was fortunate enough to watch 4^th round pick OF/C Brandon Miller this spring in a televised game against the University of Florida, and I assumed the best way to answer your question was to publish my  game notes (cleaned up a bit) about him.

Brandon Miller, #25 is a right-handed hitting and fielding senior right fielder for Samford University – Flashed a cannon for a throwing arm, a real legitimate weapon in right field as he gunned down two runners trying to advance on him, one at 2B and one at 3B,  an audible “Holy C%$P” type arm.  Miller also flashed some impressive opposite field power flying out to deep right-center field in his 3^rd at-bat, and although his swing appeared lengthy in his other plate appearances, he does possess obvious above-average hitting power.  A surprisingly athletic player from a thick, powerful frame, he is not particularly fast, a below-average runner at best.  His body and tools could profile better as a catcher, something the broadcasters mentioned during the game he has done in the past.  Brandon Miller is an interesting senior sign that flashes two big plus tools (power and arm) and if he is able to catch professionally, he could be a nice pick in June’s Draft.

Obviously I found him as an intriguing name a few months ago, and the Nationals have done quite a job in recent seasons developing catchers, especially excellent defensive catchers, so I think if the Nationals are willing to be patient and develop him slowly, Miller is moldable clay that could become an interesting catching prospect in a few seasons and an excellent value signing for $100,000.  Thank you for your question.

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Steven via Email -> “Dear NatsGM, please explain the emergence of Baltimore Orioles pitcher Jason Hammel… What is he doing differently in 2012 verses 2011 and is this performance sustainable?”

Good question and one I received during Friday night’s game when he was dominating the Nationals lineup to the tune of 1 unearned run, 5 hits and 10 strikeouts against 0 walks over 8 innings. Jason Hammel has been a revelation thus far in 2012 producing a 8-2 record in 14 starts with a 2.61 ERA, allowing 71 hits, 29 walks, and 87 strikeouts in 89.2 innings; these numbers look erroneous compared with his numbers with Colorado in 2011 (170.1 innings pitched, 4.76 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and 94 strikeouts) and 2010 (177.2 innings pitched, a 4.81 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and 141 strikeouts).  For his 7-year career, Jason Hammel owns a 42-47 record with a 4.73 ERA in 821.2 innings pitched.
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Why have his numbers improved so dramatically?  The first advancement one notices is that Hammel’s average fastball velocity has increased from a career 92.7mph to 93.7mph in 2012 and the speed on his slider has improved from 84.3mph last year to 85.1mph in 2012.  In addition, Hammel is throwing his slider more often in 2012, from 17.2% last season (16.4% for his career) to 23.0% thus far this year.  The increased velocity and improved slider are the major reasons he has watched his strikeout rate jump from 6.52 batters per 9 innings in his career (including 4.97 in 2011) to 8.73 batters per 9 innings in 2012, and his swinging strike percentage has improved to 10.3% in 2012, up from a career mark of 8.0%.

While we can now see why his results have improved, the question remains, is this level of performance sustainable?  His strand rate of 79.0% so far in 2012 is highly unsustainable over the course of a season, as the average for major league pitchers annually falls between 71%-72%, and his BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) currently resides at .267, some 40 points below his career mark of .310, so yes, there is some “fools gold” involved in Hammel’s numbers so far and regression should be expected.  However, the velocity increase and improvement to his slider provide credible evidence that he has developed as a pitcher and should settle into a career as a quality #4 starting pitcher.  Give credit to Baltimore GM Dan Duquette and the Orioles front office for making a nice trade to acquire him last winter.

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@NL_Beast via Twitter -> “What are your thoughts on the Kevin Youkilis trade on Sunday?  Which side do you favor, the Red Sox or the White Sox?”

Late Sunday afternoon the news broke that the Boston Red Sox finally traded long-time 1B/3B Kevin Youkilis to the Chicago White Sox, along with $5.5 million dollars, and in return they received utility infielder Brett Lillibridge and right-handed pitching prospect Zach Stewart.  With the emergence of third base prospect Will Middlebrooks and Adrian Gonzalez and David Ortiz well-entrenched at first base and designated hitter, respectfully, Kevin Youkilis found himself on the outside looking in for playing time for the Red Sox.  This numbers crunch proved opportunistic for the White Sox, who have struggled to find adequate production from third base for many seasons, and pounced on the opportunity to acquire Youkilis.

Although Kevin Youkilis has struggled mightily thus far in 2012 batting only .233 with 4 home runs, and has earned his reputation as an injury-prone player in recent seasons, when healthy, Youkilis is one of the better corner infielders in baseball, and provides Chicago with a massive upgrade at the hot corner, as Brett Morel has struggled to stay healthy for the White Sox.  On a fan level, I am quite curious to watch a motivated, soon-to-be free agent Youkilis slide over to another hitter’s ballpark in another impressive lineup, and see what type of numbers he will post in the final 90 games of this season.  The Red Sox had pushed themselves to the point where they needed to trade Youkilis, and the haul they received in return from the White Sox was better than one might anticipate considering the place of weakness they were dealing from.

The Red Sox will immediately place versatile utility player Brent Lillibridge on the active roster and send pitcher Zach Stewart to Triple-A Pawtucket.  Lillibridge’s value lies in his ability to play every position on the field and his occasional right-handed power, as he proved with 13 home runs in 186 at-bats last year.  However, Lillibridge is little to get excited about, as his .175/.232/.190 batting line for this season, or career .215/.283/.358 numbers show: the real value in this trade is Zach Stewart.  Stewart, a 25 year old power right-handed pitcher, has struggled in his limited time in the major leagues, as his 5.92 ERA in 97.1 innings pitched show, but his repertoire and career minor league numbers (3.07 ERA, 314 strikeouts in 375 innings) have made scouts wonder if he will develop into a #4 starting pitcher or a hard-throwing set-up relief pitcher, the latter being far more probable.

Sunday’s trade provides an interesting end to Kevin Youkilis’ career in Boston and considering how desperately Boston needed to trade him, the Red Sox did reasonably well to receive a solid arm with potential and a decent 25^th man in return.  Nevertheless, I give the edge in the deal to Chicago, as Youkilis represents a potential 2-3 win improvement over the current alternatives on the White Sox roster, conceivably the difference in winning the mediocre AL Central division come September over rivals Cleveland and Detroit.

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Earlier this week I was talking baseball with a friend of mine, and he brought up the topic that Major League Baseball needs to mandate that Bryce Harper and Mike Trout make the roster in the All-Star game next month.  Although I agreed with his suggestion, I had to admit that I have not watched an All-Star game in five years, spending that time over the All-Star break on “Date Nights with Mrs. NatsGM” in hopes of staying out of her doghouse for the second half of the season.  However, the topic of the All-Star Game stuck with me and as an enthusiast of All-Star Monday Night’s Home Run Derby, I amassed some general suggestions to improve the rest of the MLB All-Star game festivities.

1)      Make the All-Star Game a Fan-Friendly Exhibition

My loss of interest in the All-Star game coincided with Bud Selig’s decision to allow the winner of an exhibition game to decide something as important as home field advantage in the World Series: this decision needs immediate reversal.  Return this contest to an exhibition game and cap it at a maximum of 10 innings, thus eliminating many of the fears of overusing pitchers. Rather than the winning league receiving home field advantage in the World Series, or a cash incentive, find another creative “perk” for the winning team.  I am open to suggestions, but I am thinking along the lines of bragging rights for the winning league – perhaps only featuring the winning league players in advertisements for the following years All-Star Game?

In addition, Major League Baseball needs to move 1^st pitch to 8pm (and not the television coverage starts at 8pm but there is a boring 20 minute preview show followed by 20 minutes of player introductions) to help bolster the audience on the east coast, especially kids.  The Mid-Summer Classic is a 3-hour infomercial for baseball, and they should do everything they can to maximize their audience and far too often, the clock reads 11pm on the east coast and the game is still in the 7^th inning, meaning many kids (and working, non-nocturnal adults) are fast asleep before the 9^th inning.  It is a shame to think of the number of people who were snoring away rather than watching Mariano Rivera pitch.

2)      Tweak The Roster Selection

I think Major League Baseball has done a nice job of creating voting interest by allowing the fans to vote for the starting hitters for each league, and the leading vote getters (regardless of numbers that season) automatically make the roster and start the game.  This is a game for the fans, and is a nice component of the game.  However, one change I would make would be installing the designated hitter in the game regardless if it is an American or National League park, and having the DH slot be chosen by the top non-qualifying vote getter in each league (i.e. the 2^nd leading Shortstop, 4^th leading Outfielder, etc.).

After the batting lineup is chosen by the fans (8 fielders and a DH), the manager should then select the 9 hitting reserves and a 12 man pitching staff, for a total of 30 All-Stars.  Furthermore, each manager will no longer be forced to select a representative from each team, as this rule is archaic, and to improve the game we must choose the best, most exciting players in each league and allow them to shine.  Next, as has been done in past years, after the 30 names are announced, 5 excellent players that were not selected should be highlighted and the fans allowed to vote one of these 5 players onto the roster as Player #31, or Mr. Overlooked – this gimmick fuels additional chatter about which player deserved inclusion and creates further fan interest in the game.

Finally, after the roster is set at 31 players, I would call for the institution of 1 final roster spot, chosen by the Commissioner of Baseball, and Player #32 should be chosen “for the good of the game”.  This player could be a legend of the game that is expected to retire at the end of the season (i.e. Chipper Jones) or a young player that would generate further interest in the contest, such as Bryce Harper or Mike Trout. Is there any fan that would not support this Player #32 clause into the All-Star game, even if their stats do not warrant selection?  These few changes would improve the quality of each roster and further bolster the fan’s stake in the game, a sure way to generate interest.
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3)      Make the Experience Easier on the Players

I know, most fans already think professional baseball players have it pretty good, but if the players (both All-Stars and non All-Stars) are considered a bit more thoroughly, perhaps the quality of play will improve and number of questionable player absences will decrease.  Major League Baseball should make the edict that the Sunday games prior to the All-Star break all begin at 1pm in their respective time zones to allow for easier travel for the players.  Sunday Night Baseball’s place on ESPN’s schedule will now be filled with the Futures Game or alternative programming if they wish.

Next, baseball should significantly decrease the media responsibilities placed on the players during All-Star week.  The superstar-caliber players in the All-Star game have media responsibilities almost daily, and spending notably less time Monday and Tuesday with the media could further appease the players.  To that point, do any of us really need another Derek Jeter media session?  With no disrespect to reporters and journalists, if Major League Baseball relaxed the media component of the game, I believe the players would respond in kind with a more inspired effort between the lines.

Finally, Major League Baseball should mandate that the All-Star break consist of Monday through Thursday, giving everyone within baseball an additional day to rejuvenate themselves.  The additional day would allow the players participating in the All-Star game to enjoy a small break themselves and gives all players another day to heal their bodies and prepare for the 2^nd half of the season.

What have I missed?  What would you alter about the All-Star game if you had the power to do so?  I am curious to hear other opinions, so I encourage you to post your thoughts in the comments sections below.

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Tuesday evening I was fortunate enough to attend the Nationals game against Tampa Bay in some magnificent seats directly behind home plate.  Most fans would have been more eager to see Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, or Gio Gonzalez as the starting pitcher that evening and witness their electric stuff, however, I was intrigued with the opportunity to watch Chien-Ming Wang, as his three previous starts left me unimpressed to say the least.  As the self-professed “World’s Biggest Ross Detwiler Mark”, I was rather skeptical of Davey Johnson’s decision to replace Detwiler in the rotation with Wang, but Wang was solid down the stretch last season and has finished in the top-3 in the Cy Young voting, so I have tried to keep an open mind about him.  As a fan and “scout”, I was hoping to see improved movement and velocity on his sinker and Wang using his off-speed pitches to keep the hitters honest and not sitting exclusively on the sinker.

Of the 77 pitches Wang threw over the course of 3.1 innings Tuesday evening, batters swung and missed only twice, once on a slider and the other on a split-finger, which means he did not produce a single whiff on the 57 sinkers he threw against a Rays lineup featuring no designated hitter and 2 non-regulars.  Before he was mercifully pulled from the game, he allowed 5 earned runs on 7 hits, including a 410 foot home run to Carlos Pena, and 3 walks against only one strikeout.  For the season, Wang has allowed 46 baserunners (29 hits, 14 walks, and 3 hit-batters) in 20.2 innings pitched with a 6.10 ERA and 11 strikeouts.  If not for an extraordinarily high percentage of stranded runners (79.2% for Wang vs. MLB league average 71%-72%), his numbers might look dramatically worse.   In addition, if one was looking for signs of optimism, Wang’s average velocity on his sinker Tuesday evening was 90.6 mph, the average through four starts is the same 90.6mph, and in 2011 when he returned to the major leagues, it was 90.6mph, down from his career average 92.2mph: now more than 2 years removed from surgery, one might logically conclude that Wang’s velocity has plateaued. (Note – Thanks to Fangraphs.com and BrooksBaseball.net for the statistics stated above.)

Last winter I theorized that with an additional six months to continue to strengthen his throwing shoulder that Chien-Ming Wang might increase both the downward movement and speed he could throw his sinker; unfortunately, from what the numbers tell us and from what my eyes witnessed the other night, his sinker velocity and movement appears to have stagnated, leading me to conclude my theory was incorrect.  The Nationals should be commended for giving Wang an opportunity to rehabilitate his shoulder and gambling on a highly improbable comeback, but the team is in a pennant race and cannot continue to give Wang a start every 5^th day in hopes he rounds into form, as it is not fair to the other 24 guys not to give them the best chance to bring home a victory that night.  Right now, Ross Detwiler’s 3.34 ERA over 62 innings and 92.3mph fastball gives the team a much better chance to win every 5^th day than does Wang, and because Detwiler is 26 years old and signed through 2015 against Wang’s age of 32 and a free agent status at the end of the season, Ross is also a much larger part of the Nationals future.  Thus, I think the team is hindering itself both in the short-term and the long-term by continuing to use Chien-Ming Wang as their 5^th starter, as he should be returned to low leverage situations in long relief until a spot in the rotation opens up due to injury or his performance and sinker significantly improves.
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