Almost 6 weeks have passed since the 2012 MLB Draft was completed and with Friday’s signing deadline now in our rearview mirror, the time has come to critique the Nationals draft strategy and review how well the team did getting them signed.  Over the course of 3 days last month, the Nationals selected 40 total players, 20 pitchers and 20 hitters, and of those 40, 26 were collegiate players, 11 were high school prospects, and 3 were junior college players.  The Nationals were able to come to terms with 28 of 40 draft picks, including their first 14 picks and 23 of their top 24 selections.  These signings break down as 18 college seniors, 5 college juniors (Renda, Mooneyham, Kieboom, Benincasa, and Perez), 3 junior college players (Poole, Pena, and Hollins), and 2 high school players (Giolito and Jennings).

Day 1 found the Nationals selecting only once, 16^th overall in the 1^st Round, and they were delighted that talented California high school right-handed pitcher Lucas Giolito was still on the board.  Giolito entered this spring as the top high school pitcher available and stood a reasonable chance to be selected 1^st overall before an injury to his ulnar collateral ligament (the same ligament that Tommy John surgery attempts to fix) in his pitching elbow kept him from pitching the majority of his senior season.  Fears to the extent of his injury and rumors of exorbitant bonus demands allowed Giolito to slip to #16, and late Friday afternoon just minutes prior to the signing deadline, the Nationals and Giolito agreed to terms on a contract including a $2.925 million dollar signing bonus.

Giolito threw for scouts off flat ground prior to the draft and when healthy, throws a mid-90s fastball that has reached 100mph, a devastating mid-80s curveball that induces swings-and-misses, and the makings of an excellent changeup.  This repertoire, along with his massive frame, gives him the ceiling of a #1 or #2 major league starter after much seasoning in the minor leagues.  Give the Nationals credit for taking the Best Talent Available and gambling on their ability to sign the young man, and by doing so, added one of the few elite talents in this draft to their system at pick #16.

Tuesday, Day 2 of the draft, consisted of Rounds 2-15 and found the Nationals wanting to continue their strategy of taking the Best Talent Available, while focusing on their ability to sign them, and often for less than their recommended slot bonus.  Essentially the Nationals needed to draft the best overall player that would sign within their budget.  Of the 14 players selected on Day 2, there were 9 hitters and 5 pitchers, and the breakdown consisted of 11 collegiate players, 2 high school athletes, and 1  junior college prospect.

In Round 2 the Nationals selected University of California 2B Tony Renda, a talented hitter with a gritty nature that allows him to overachieve his average tools and followed by selecting Stanford University LHP Brett Mooneyham in Round 3, a talented underachiever that struggled with injuries the majority of his college career, but when healthy, possesses a great low-90s fastball, a curveball, slider, and changeup, with below-average command.  Mooneyham has plenty of talent and an excellent chance of reaching the majors in some capacity, but this redshirt-junior is rawer than steak tartar.  Rounds 4 and 5 found the Nationals attempting to save some dollars, as they selected Samford senior outfielder/catcher Brandon Miller, an interesting talent with huge power and a plus throwing arm but lingering questions about his ability to hit, and Clemson junior catcher Spencer Kieboom, one of the best defensive catchers in college baseball last summer but conversely, one of the weaker hitters in the country as well.  His stellar defensive ability gives him a chance to reach the major leagues, and perhaps he improves his hitting along the way.  Finally, the Nationals got a steal with Florida State University relief pitcher Robert Benincasa in Round 7, a three-pitch reliever that should move rapidly through the minor leagues and has a chance to be a high leverage reliever in the majors.

Wednesday, the day of the draft usually reserved for finding a few sleeper prospects, selecting a few difficult to sign high school athletes, and drafting college seniors to fill out the organizations minor league rosters, found the Nationals concluding with 25 picks in Rounds 16-40.  On this final day the Nationals select 14 pitchers and 11 hitters, breaking down as 15 college players, 8 high school prospects, and 2 junior college athletes.  The Nationals selected difficult to sign high school prospects RHP Freddy Avis, OF Skye Bolt, and RHP Cody Poteet in Rounds 25-27 but were unable to reach an agreement with any of these three talented players, and also failed to sign any of the 8 high school kids selected on Day 3.  Besides Avis, Bolt, and Poteet, some of the more interesting day 3 picks the team was able to sign include 16^th Round pick Palm Beach State RHP Ronald Pena, a College of Charleston commit with a 92-94mph fastball and an inconsistent curveball and slider, 18^th round pick University of Connecticut RHP David Fischer, a senior draftee with a heavy low-90s fastball and a decent curveball/slider hybrid breaking pitch, and 22^nd Round choice Notre Dame RHP Will Hudgins, a senior that produced a 2.06 ERA and 90 strikeouts in 96.1 innings pitched in 2012 and has an impressive fastball.
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The Nationals were one of the more interesting teams in this summer’s draft, as they forced themselves into a precarious position if they were unable to come to terms with 1^st round pick Lucas Giolito on a contract.  If he failed to sign, the Nationals would have been heavily criticized for the lack of high-school and high-ceiling talent in the draft class, a direct result of the club’s need to conserve money if they were to sign Giolito.  This approach allowed Washington to sign only 5 high school and junior college players, a slight cause for concern as it does not provide the infusion of youth (high-ceiling talent) every organization desires from their draft.

Fortunately for the organization, an agreement was reached with the talented Giolito and his presence was added to an otherwise conservative collection of talent acquired in later rounds.  Nevertheless, Renda, Mooneyham, and Benincasa have major league talent and reasonably high prospect floors, giving each a strong chance of reaching the major leagues in some capacity in the future, and Miller (arm/power) and Kieboom (defense/arm) have promising tools that give them a possibility with refinement and polish to become big league players.  GM Mike Rizzo and the scouting department should be commended for acquiring a nice haul of prospects on a budget, that said, the Nationals draft went from poor to above-average the moment Lucas Giolito signed his contract.  Considering they selected #16 overall and did not own any additional picks in this draft, the Nationals easily had one of the better drafts and should be applauded for the collection of talent they infused into their farm system.

NatsGM Overall Grade ->   A-/B+

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As I began pondering potential moves the Nationals front office might pursue, I thought it might be prudent to examine which prospects the team will most frequently be asked about in advance of the trade deadline. Unless GM Mike Rizzo surprises the fan base with a major acquisition, I think we can safely assume the organizations top picks from the 2011 draft, namely Anthony Rendon, Alex Meyer, Brian Goodwin, and Matt Purke, will be off-limits during trade discussions this month. The depth of the Nationals farm system was significantly depleted in the Gio Gonzalez trade this past winter, however, assuming the Nationals are looking for simple improvements for the stretch run, perhaps a veteran catcher to pair with Jesus Flores or another reliever to add depth to the bullpen, there are still plenty of promising names worth highlighting.  Here are a few Nationals prospects that should receive considerable attention from other organizations in the upcoming weeks.

Corey Brown – After a mediocre 2011 (.235/.326/.402 14 home runs), Brown returned to Syracuse this season and has destroyed Triple-A pitching to numbers of .295/.382/.554 and 19 home runs.  Brown is deserving of a promotion to Washington, but the organizational outfield depth chart has Bryce Harper, Rick Ankiel, and Roger Bernadina currently ahead of him, forcing him to continue punishing minor league pitching.  The fact that he remains in the minors might lead other front offices to conclude that Brown is not in the Nationals long-term plans, and a sensible target if the Nationals wish to improve their roster.

David Freitas – Another young, talented catching prospect in the Nationals organization, Freitas was selected in the 15^th round of the 2010 draft out of the University of Hawaii and has impressed as a hitter with a career .294/.406/.445 line with 22 home runs over 249 minor league games.  Freitas needs refinement defensively but has the talent to develop into an average or slightly better defender, giving him the ceiling of a starting catcher in a few years.

Nathan Karns – A 12^th round pick out of Texas Tech in 2009, since signing into professional baseball Karns has posted impressive career strikeout numbers (11.03 K/9), but has struggled to climb the organizational ladder due to his poor control (4.43 BB/9).  Pitching at both levels of A-Ball thus far in 2012, Karns has posted a 2.22 ERA in 85 innings pitched, striking out 114 batters verses 36 walks; certainly his control of the strike zone still needs improvement, but any pitcher striking out 12 batters per 9 innings will be coveted in trade talks.

Danny Rosenbaum – A soft tossing left-handed pitcher, Rosenbaum succeeds with pinpoint control of the strike zone, and has posted an impressive 3.38 ERA in 114.1 innings with 71 strikeouts and 25 walks in Double-A this season.  For his career, he possesses a 2.60 ERA and 359 strikeouts in his 466.2 minor league innings pitched over 4 minor league seasons.  Rosenbaum’s lack of fastball velocity limits his potential ceiling to that of a #5 starter or valuable lefty reliever in the major leagues, but his impressive numbers at Harrisburg and his being only 24 years old will interest prospective teams, giving him a logical chance of being dealt.

Matt Skole – After a successful collegiate career at Georgia Tech, Skole has continued to hit as a professional, posting a .280/.434/.553 with 26 home runs in 155 games and 554 career minor league at-bats.  His glove is suspect at third base, and his numbers should be seen through the lens of a polished college player succeeding in Low-A, but power is at a premium in baseball right now and his name will be intriguing during trade discussions.

Kylin Turnbull – The Nationals 4^th round selection in 2011, Turnbull has not performed particularly well this season in Low-A Hagerstown (84.0 innings pitched, 4.82 ERA, and 49 strikeouts), but still possesses plenty of upside as a 6-5 left handed pitcher with a low-90s fastball, an impressive slider, and a changeup and split-finger.  In spite of his results, promising lefties with potential to improve will catch the eye of every opposing general manager and Turnbull could be a hot commodity in the upcoming weeks.

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Before their season concludes, I want to encourage everyone who lives in the Washington Metropolitan area to take an evening and visit a Cal Ripken League game near you.  The Ripken League is now in its 14^th season, and words cannot express how dramatically the level of competition has risen in recent seasons.  In early summers the teams were comprised of collegiate players with little chance of a future professionally, now the teams have plenty of quality prospects on their rosters.  I have watched 5 games so far this summer and will attend more games this month to scout prospects and soak up the superb atmosphere.

This is not a paid endorsement by any means (although I should thank the wonderful people at the Bethesda Big Train for their hospitality), simply I want to point out there are few more pleasant ways to spend a summer evening than taking in one of these ballgames.  I am taking nothing away from the experience of a Nationals game and the excitement of 35,000 people, but for those looking for a more subdued, family-focused atmosphere, I urge you to attend a game before the season ends.

Shameless Plug -> I was fortunate enough to be this week’s guest on the Ball Hogs Radio’s Nationals Podcast, The Red Porch Report – The host Kevin and I discuss the All Star Game, we recap the 1^st half of the season, and preview the 2^nd half of the season.  I highly encourage you click the link and download the podcast.  http://www.ballhogsradio.com/2012/07/10/podcast-red-porch-report-07-09-12-nationals-podcast/

Follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, “Like” our Facebook page by searching NatsGM, and email me your comments to NationalsGM@Gmail.com

Sunday represented the 14^th annual Sirius/XM All-Star Futures Game, far and away my favorite part of the All-Star festivities each year; this exhibition game (a novel idea for the All-Star game, Commissioner Selig) has all 30 organizations represented and the majority of the top prospects in the minor leagues comprise the teams.   Baseball America, the excellent prospect website, selects both 25-man rosters and divides them into the USA team (prospects born in the United States) and the World team (those born outside the States).  The light-hearted atmosphere allows these talented young players to show off their talents against their peers and gives scouts and fans a chance to watch the best prospects in the minors leagues compete against each other.  Although in previous years the pitchers seemed to hold an upper hand, the 2012 version of the Futures Game surprisingly saw an offensive explosion from the USA lineup, winning the contest with a final score of 17-5.  Here are some of my notes from yesterday’s contest-

Prospect Thoughts

Dylan Bundy – The Orioles top selection (4^th overall) last summer, the 19 year old Bundy has rapidly arrived at High-A Frederick after dominating in his 30 innings at Low-A Delmarva, allowing only 2 unearned runs and striking out 40 hitters.  Since his promotion, Bundy has continued to impress with a 3.52 ERA and 34 strikeouts against 11 walks in 32.2 innings pitched.  Bundy added to his growing reputation Sunday by pitching around 3 hits allowed in his one inning of work, flashing a 96mph fastball with some natural sinking action, a 76-77mph hammer curveball he struggled to locate down in the zone, and a tight, fluid pitching motion from his stocky, well-built pitcher’s frame.  Bundy still needs maturation time in the minor leagues to improve his changeup and his ability to set up hitters, but the sky is the limit on his talent and he should arrive in Baltimore sometime in 2013 and be a mainstay in the Orioles rotation most of the rest of the decade.  What an impressive talent the Orioles were fortunate enough to secure last summer.

Gerrit Cole – The top overall selection in last year’s draft, the Pirates Gerrit Cole flashed moments of brilliance in his appearance during the 2^nd inning, flaunting his powerful downward 87mph slider before striking out Red Sox prospect Xander Bogaerts with a 99mph fastball he simply blew by him.  Cole topped out at 100mph with the heater and flashed his above-average 88mph changeup with healthy sink as well; however he lost his release point midway through the inning (or began trying to show off a bit too much) and walked Jesus Aguilar before allowing Jae-Hoon Ha to homer on a 2-1 pitch over the opposite field fence.  This outing is rather emblematic of my fears with Gerrit Cole, as he is a pitcher with ace-quality, dominating stuff who gives up far more hits and eventually runs than someone with his repertoire and talents should.  Cole has a plus-plus fastball and curveball, and an above-average changeup, and the only thing keeping him in the minors is his need to prevent more runs from scoring.

Francisco Lindor – Cleveland’s top choice in the 2011 draft (8^th overall), Lindor has done nothing but impress since being drafted last summer, holding his own this season as an 18 year old in the Midwest League at Lake County with a .263/.348/.372 with 4 home runs and 15 stolen bases while amazing scouts with his slick fielding at shortstop.  Lindor faced top prospect Taijuan Walker in the 7^th inning and immediately displayed his above-average to plus bat speed, turning on a good 95mph fastball and spanking it to right field.  Lindor is farther away from the major leagues than most of the other participants in the Futures Game, but he should fill out as he matures and has All-Star level talent as a gold-glove defensive shortstop and 10-15 home run power with a .280-.300 batting average.

Alex Meyer – The lone Washington Nationals representative, Meyer was the Nats 1^st Round Pick, #23^rd overall, in the 2011 Draft from the University of Kentucky.  Meyer entered the game in the 8^th inning and needed only 6 pitches to retire the 2 hitters he faced, flashing a 98-99mph fastball and devastating 87mph slider combination.  Meyer’s mammoth 6-9 height and below-average changeup work against him as he attempts to develop as a starter, but if he can harness his motion and develop his changeup, he has the potential of an elite #2-#3 starting pitcher.  If not, as he showed Sunday, Meyer should carve out a significant major league career as a power fastball/slider relief pitcher.
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Taijuan Walker – Walker, the 43^rd overall selection by the Mariners in the 2010 draft, has quickly become a well-known name in prospect circles after rocketing through the Seattle system, reaching Double-A Jackson of the Southern League this season as a 19-year old.  Walker has more than held his own against players 3-5 years older thus far in 2012, producing a 4.50 ERA with 71 strikeouts against 32 walks in 70 innings.  Taijuan entered the game in the top of the 7^th inning and made quick work of the World lineup, impressing with 95-97mph fastball with life, a 91mph changeup with good arm-side and sinking action, and a quiet, smooth delivery.  His 78mph breaking ball needs further refinement, and like every young pitcher he needs to improve setting batters up, but Walker has everything you look for in a pitching prospect and there is little slowing his progress as he projects to join Seattle’s rotation sometime in 2013.

Quick Takes

Cincinnati Reds representative Billy Hamilton flashed his jaw-dropping speed with an easy triple in the bottom of the 3^rd off Dodgers LHP Chris Reed.  Hamilton’s inconsistent throwing arm and plus-plus “80 grade” foot-speed might make him a better fit long-term in center field rather than the middle infield, but the speed is so prodigious (think Michael Johnson on the backstretch at the 1996 Summer Olympics) he can literally change a game with a routine groundball to shortstop, and projects as a dangerous leadoff man in the future…. The Miami Marlins 2011 1^st Round pick Jose Fernandez may not have entered this season with the reputation of some of the other pitching prospects in his draft class, but he has been dominant thus far in 2012 (1.59 ERA, 99 strikeouts in 79 innings at Low-A) and continued his impressive ways in the bottom of the 2^nd inning.  Fernandez featured a plus 97-99mph fastball and plus 83-85mph slider with serious downward movement that struck out Rangers advanced hitting prospect Mike Olt.  Turning only 20 years old later this month, Fernandez still needs development time in the minors to improve his changeup, his only hindrance between becoming an impressive upper-half of the rotation starter, or a career as a high-leverage reliever.  Fernandez is yet another solid find by the Marlins scouting department… The 2^nd overall selection last summer, Seattle Mariners prospect LHP Danny Hultzen, the pride of Bethesda, MD and the University of Virginia, appeared in the 3^rd inning and showed his 94mph fastball, a 78-79mph slider, and an 85mph changeup while being hit hard by the World team lineup.  Although not an appearance for the highlight reel (3 hits and an earned run in 1 IP), Hultzen flashed the polished stuff and moxie of a reliable mid-rotation starter, and his permanent arrival in Seattle could occur before the end of this season.

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It has been a hectic week in major league baseball and I must apologize for NatsGM being dark the past few days, but like many of us without power have recently discovered (Thanks Pepco!) a computer battery drains quickly without electricity.  Since the Derecho of 2012 we have seen Jim Thome get traded to Baltimore and Carlos Lee to Miami, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley return to the Philadelphia Phillies lineup, and Bryce Harper become the 3^rd youngest player behind Dwight Gooden in 1984 and Bob Feller in 1938 to ever be selected to the All-Star game.  A memorable and historic week, and yet none of those topics are on the agenda, rather I wanted to respond to the numerous reader emails about Zach Greinke, discuss Nationals OF Corey Brown, and compliment a book I read during the recent blackout.

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In recent days, reports have circulated that the Baltimore Orioles are interested in trading for Milwaukee starting pitcher and former CY Young award winner Zach Greinke – this seems to be the root of the many emails I have received from Orioles fans asking what part of Fells Point Greinke will be living in before the end of July.  Certainly the Orioles could use Greinke, as the team’s ERA by the starting rotation this season stands at 4.73, currently 27^th out of the 30 teams.  Although I appreciate the fans zeal, I began to wonder if the Orioles had enough “ammunition” in terms of prospects to entice Milwaukee to part with their star pitcher, and top the other potential offers that the Brewers could receive from other organizations.

My educated assumption from looking at past midseason trades in recent years (Carlos Beltran traded to San Francisco for Zach Wheeler, Cliff Lee to the Texas Rangers for Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke, and Matt Lawson, and CC Sabathia to Milwaukee Brewers for Matt LaPorta, Rob Bryson, Zach Jackson, and Michael Brantley) is that the Brewers will command one top-shelf major league ready prospect, and “presumably” another quality prospect and a final lottery ticket type athlete.  The Orioles, like every organization, have the lesser-hyped but impressive prospects the Brewers would expect to round out the deal, but does Baltimore have the elite prospect required to make the Brewers agree to a deal.

Baltimore possesses two of the top-5 prospects currently in the minor leagues in RHP Dylan Bundy and SS Manny Machado, their 1^st round selections in 2011 and 2010, respectfully.  While I do not have any direct knowledge into the thinking of Baltimore’s front office, GM Dan Duquette has publicly stated that these two players are far too valuable to the long-term future of the organization to trade and are untouchable.  Assuming they are off-limits, the other young players the Orioles have that would interest the Brewers include LHP Brian Matusz, RHP Jake Arrieta, infielder Jonathan Schoop, catcher Caleb Joseph, and OFs Xavier Avery and L.J. Hoes: each a valuable and interesting prospect, but not equivalent in value to Zach Wheeler/Justin Smoak/Matt LaPorta at the time they headlined their respective summer trades.

If Milwaukee does decide to part with Greinke before the trade deadline, it will be interesting to see what type of return they will net: if another team does not satisfy Milwaukee with an offer, the Brewers could decide to keep him until the offseason and collect two draft picks if he signs elsewhere as a free agent (similar to the Nationals decision to keep Alfonso Soriano a few seasons back).  Therefore, unless the Orioles decide to drastically alter their rather public stance and part with Manny Machado or Dylan Bundy, I expect the Orioles offer will be unsatisfactory to the Brewers and will force the club to look elsewhere (Houston’s Wandy Rodriguez or San Diego’s Clayton Richard?) to help the rotation down the stretch.

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The Nationals have a number crunch on the major league roster as Steve Lombardozzi, Tyler Moore, and Rick Ankiel are locked into secure places on the bench and Roger Bernadina has carved out his niche as an elite defensive replacement in left field and a left-handed bat with some speed.  Chad Tracy is expected to return to his pinch hitting role in the next 10-14 days and Jayson Werth could return to the starting lineup within a month, further deepening their bench.  However, Corey Brown provides more versatility and power than struggling utility player Mark DeRosa, whose value lies in his right-handed bat and veteran leadership, a difficult quality to measure.  Nevertheless Brown is significantly better defensively, drastically faster, and probably an upgrade offensively as well, making him the superior choice for the Nationals going forward.

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A few months ago a reader emailed me a copy of his father’s manuscript titled The Nats – A Novel (a catchy title for this Nationals fan) by John Young, which was published this past April and asked if I would read it.  Unfortunately I do very little reading for fun during the season, but I promised the man that I would peruse it this summer and if I enjoyed it, perhaps give it a mention.

The novel is a story of a down on his luck and extraordinarily jaded claims adjustor living in Boston named Peter, whose passion for the Washington Nationals is in many ways the reason his life is rapidly deteriorating.   In only one winter, Peter is divorced from his wife, his son is accused of vehicular manslaughter, and he is blackmailed by his boss to keep a job he despises, amongst a multitude of other issues, and yet it all still fails to captivate his attention compared to the Nationals need to acquire a center fielder and his skepticism of Edwin Jackson’s ability to throw strikes.

I must warn everyone that the language is certainly not for the squeamish, and the main character’s cynical nature will not appeal to everyone, but as a diehard Nationals fan, I could relate with Peter waiting for the latest ESPN chat to gleam a mention of any new Nationals rumors, and the highs and lows of this past offseason (trading for Gio Gonzalez, not signing Prince Fielder, etc.). A passionate Nationals fan wanting to revisit this past winter through the lens of a grumpy middle aged Nats fan will enjoy this easy-to-read and snarky novel as I did.

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