As the Washington Nationals continue to cruise toward their first ever playoff appearance, one of the biggest concerns with the team is the lack of success in recent starts with star pitcher Jordan Zimmermann.  Over his previous five starts and 25.1 innings pitched, Zimmermann has posted a 6.04 ERA and has allowed 32 hits and 8 walks against 23 strikeouts, a far cry from his season numbers of 3.01 ERA in 164.2 innings pitched with 158 hits and 33 walks allowed and 122 total strikeouts.  Since he pitched 161.1 innings in 2011 and had Tommy John surgery in 2009, the easy conclusion to reach is that Zimmermann has begun to wear down and the quality of his stuff has dissipated.  However, as Adam Kilgore accurately pointed out in the Washington Post on Tuesday, the raw numbers show that his velocity was above his season average last Saturday, somewhat discrediting the fatigue argument.  With this in mind, I charted Zimmermann’s start Thursday evening with my scouting hat on, focusing on his performance and looking for the reasons behind his recent poor performance or any adjustments he has made to improve.

In a game that will be remembered far more for the emptying bullpens, quasi-fights, and Bo Porter charging the Chicago Cubs dugout, Jordan Zimmermann settled down after some early scuffles to pitch 7 innings, giving up 5 hits and 2 earned runs, with one walk and 9 strikeouts.  He allowed one home run amidst his 96 pitches, 68 of which were strikes, consisting of 70.8% fastballs, 13.5% sliders, and 15.6% curveballs.  His fastball velocity stayed between 93-96mph most of the evening, with an average of 94.9mph, and his slider was between 87-90mph, averaging 88.6mph: both numbers are superior to his season averages of 93.8mph and 86.2 respectfully. (Thanks to BrooksBaseball.net and Fangraphs.com for the math help)  Although the Cubs lineup was not particularly intimidating last night, Jordan Zimmermann showed why he is one of the better starting pitchers in the National League, as he pairs an above-average or “60” grade fastball, slider, and curveball with good command and control of the strike zone.  Zimmermann only threw two poor pitches all night, the 3-0 fastball to Anthony Rizzo in the 1^st inning and the 0-0 slider to Darwin Barney in the 2^nd inning, otherwise he was locating his pitches well and keeping the Cubs lineup off-balance.

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According to the authority that is Wikipedia, Labor Day is an American federal holiday to honor the contributions of workers, celebrated on the first Monday of September traditionally with BBQs and adult beverages.  To the baseball world, Labor Day represents a checkpoint in the baseball season, with those in contention focusing on the playoff chase ahead and those struggling through a poor season reflecting on what went wrong the previous five months.  This idea struck me and this theme guides both topics I examine today, first the Nationals somewhat surprising decision to add veteran LHP Zach Duke to strengthen their bullpen and my thoughts on the Los Angeles Dodgers mega-trade with Boston last week.  So in my own small way, here is a Tip of the Fedora to all those hard-working individuals out there, take the day off and enjoy some baseball talk.

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In an effort to bolster their weary bullpen for the stretch drive, Monday morning the Nationals summoned former 2009 All-Star representative and veteran LHP Zach Duke from Triple-A Syracuse.  Duke, a 29-year-old former long-time member of the Pittsburgh Pirates, spent all of 2012 in Triple-A posting a 15-5 record with a 3.51 ERA over 26 starts and 164.1 innings pitched, with 91 strikeouts and 39 walks.  Although he has performed as a starter all season and the majority of his career, Duke will pitch out of the bullpen for the Nationals this month, where his numbers against left-handed hitters this season (2.53 ERA and .245 batting average against) and ability to pitch multiple innings should add much needed depth to the relief corps.  In order to clear the space on the 40-man roster necessary to add Duke, Henry Rodriguez was placed on the 60-day disabled list after undergoing surgery on his pitching elbow last week.

As I mentioned in Saturday’s column, I was mildly surprised that the Nationals did not add a second arm, in addition to Christian Garcia, to their bullpen amidst their September call-ups to help the already taxed bullpen and pitch the innings of lesser importance during the final few weeks of the season.  Considering Sean Burnett is dealing with some general soreness in his pitching elbow, and the Nationals two long relievers in the bullpen, Craig Stammen and Tom Gorzelanny, are currently in the top-20 in innings pitched by a reliever this season, needless to say, Zach Duke should provide some relief specifically to these three pitchers in the days ahead.  While the Nationals must continue to rely on their reliable workhorses in the bullpen when the game is on the line, manager Davey Johnson should not hesitate to use Duke in low-leverage situations and save any unnecessary pitches on this tiring bullpen.  If not for the team’s ability to place Rodriguez on the disabled list and create another space on the roster, Duke would likely not have been added to the team due to the numbers crunch, but like many things for the Nationals this season, a piece of bad news could turn out to benefit the team.  Another subtle but productive move by general manager Mike Rizzo and the front office, and congratulations to Zach on his return to the major leagues.

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The Boston Red Sox Make a Blockbuster Trade with the Newly Wealthy Los Angeles Dodgers

In one of the biggest baseball trades in recent memory, the Boston Red Sox cleared more than a quarter of a billion dollars in future payroll when they traded 1B Adrian Gonzalez, OF Carl Crawford, RHP Josh Beckett, and INF Nick Punto, along with $11 million dollars, to the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for 1B James Loney, INF Ivan DeJesus Jr., 1B/OF Jerry Sands, RHP Allen Webster, and a Player To Be Named, expected to be RHP Rubby De La Rosa.

In hopes of reaching the playoffs this fall, the Dodgers new ownership group continues to spend money like a drunken sailor on leave, as since taking over just a few short months ago they acquired 5 players at the July trade deadline (Hanley Ramirez, Randy Choate, Joe Blanton, Brandon League, and Shane Victorino), and now will add more than $250 million dollars in future payroll in acquiring Gonzalez, Crawford, Beckett, and Punto from Boston.  Adrian Gonzalez is the jewel of this trade, a 4-time All-Star and career .293/.371/.507 hitter with 211 home runs, who is signed for six more years at $21 million per year.  But to acquire Gonzalez, the Dodgers are taking on quite a large amount of risk and future payroll as they also received Carl Crawford, who is signed for more than $100 million the next 5 years and underwent Tommy John surgery last week, and Josh Beckett, signed through 2014 and holder of a 5.21 ERA in 133 innings this season.  In terms of Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett, the Dodgers are gambling that the change of scenery will help rejuvenate their careers and get them back playing to their abilities, and Adrian Gonzalez will be the long-term solution for Los Angeles at first base.

Well on their way to missing the playoffs for the third consecutive season, Boston has long needed to hit the reset button and start over, so when the Dodgers offered them an opportunity to do so, the Red Sox had little choice but to trade these veterans.  Although there is little question that the overwhelming key to this trade from Boston’s perspective is the reduction in future payroll, give general manager Ben Cherington credit for also receiving some useful pieces in return.  While their ultimate ceilings are likely as backups, Sands and DeJesus should become productive bench players and both Webster and De La Rosa have impressive arms with the potential to be mid-rotation starters.  Nevertheless, with Gonzalez, Crawford, and Beckett now in Los Angeles and David Ortiz and Daisuke Matsuzaka free agents this winter, Boston could have $100+ million to spend as they attempt to fill holes in the starting rotation, first base, and corner outfield this offseason.

A good trade is normally loosely defined as a deal in which both sides improved themselves and received what they wanted in return for what they traded away: this holds true in regard to this transaction in the fact that the Dodgers immediately upgrade their roster with Gonzalez at first base and Beckett in the rotation, making them a stronger playoff contender, and the Red Sox quickly become the major player in free agency this winter.  Losing Gonzalez will hurt long-term, but Boston general manager Ben Cherington deserves to win Executive of the Year after executing this trade, clearing two malcontents and effectively hitting the reset button on three difficult seasons for the Red Sox.  That said, the Dodgers have done well to flex their newfound financial muscle to add Gonzalez, Ramirez, and Victorino to their lineup, and Beckett to their rotation, but it is tough to believe that these short-term improvements will not come at a damaging long-term cost in terms of aging players, lost prospects, and sunk cost contracts.  Like a bad champagne hangover, this deal has the potential to hurt the Dodgers in the long run.

As many baseball fans know, September 1^st is a special date on the baseball calendar as major league baseball allows teams to expand the active roster from the traditional 25-man limit to anyone on the 40-man roster.  While fans let their baseball imaginations run wild with matchup possibilities of 15 additional reserves, most organizations typically only add between 3-7 players, normally a third catcher, a few relievers to bolster the bullpen, and a handful of defensive replacements and bench hitters.  Late Friday afternoon the Nationals announced they will add LHP John Lannan, catcher Sandy Leon, and outfielder Eury Perez from Triple-A Syracuse to the roster Saturday; in addition, veteran utility player Mark DeRosa will be activated from the disabled list.  Davey Johnson also strongly hinted that after Syracuse’s season finishes the team will promote outfielder Corey Brown and a relief pitcher, widely believed to be RHP Christian Garcia.

Considering Stephen Strasburg is expected to be shut down in the next 2-3 starts, and the Nationals bullpen has shown some signs of overuse in recent weeks, it would have been a surprise if the team did not add a few pitchers to help down the stretch.  It has been a rather foregone conclusion for weeks that when Strasburg reaches his innings limit, 2009 and 2010 opening day starting pitcher LHP John Lannan will take his spot in the rotation. Lannan struggled at Triple-A this season with a 9-11 record and a 4.30 ERA in 148.2 innings pitched, with 164 hits and 50 walks allowed against only 86 strikeouts, nonetheless, in his two starts for the Nationals this season, he has pitched extremely well with a 2-0 record, a 3.46 ERA with 9 hits and 7 walks against 7 strikeouts in 13 innings and his track record of success in the big leagues leaves the team in a good situation.

Shifting to the bullpen, currently the Nationals have three pitchers, Craig Stammen 74.1 innings, Tom Gorzelanny 61 innings, and Tyler Clippard 59.1 innings, in the top fifteen in total innings pitched by a reliever this season.  In addition the Nationals bullpen has thrown more than 400 innings thus far in 2012, 8^th most in baseball and with the expectation of a deep playoff run, the team needs to carefully watch and protect the bullpen from overuse in the upcoming weeks.  In response to this, Lannan will pitch in relief until he replaces Strasburg and 27-year-old right-handed relief pitcher Christian Garcia will be promoted at the conclusion of Syracuse’s season early next week.  Garcia has been the most surprising player in the Nationals minor league system this year, pitching to a 0.88 ERA with 20 saves and 66 strikeouts in 51.1 innings pitched, and with an mid-90s fastball and plus slider, he should immediately be an asset in middle relief for the club.

Looking toward the offense, Corey Brown, Mark DeRosa, Sandy Leon, and Eury Perez will serve as bench depth for the Nationals.  After a difficult season in 2011, Corey Brown has rebounded with a dominant effort this year, batting 286/.365/.517 with 23 home runs and 54 extra base hits. His impressive left-handed power and ability to play all three outfield positions should benefit the Nationals in September, and his performance this year should earn him a spot as a reserve outfielder in 2013.  Mark DeRosa has struggled all year with injuries which has led to a disappointing .152/.288/.212 batting line and zero home runs in 66 at-bats this season, but his intangibles and veteran leadership should provide this youthful team a calming influence down the stretch.

Sandy Leon, who sustained an injury in his first game with the Nationals in May, has improved offensively this season as evidenced by his .322/.396/.460 batting line to go along with his impressive above-average defensive skills.  He will serve as the third catcher behind Kurt Suzuki and Jesus Flores, and will allow manager Davey Johnson the flexibility to pinch hit for the catcher’s spot later in games.  Finally, Eury Perez impressed the organization in Viera and has used a productive spring training as a springboard in 2012, batting .314/.344/.361 with 51 stolen bases over three levels in addition to his excellent defense in center field.  He lacks power and needs to take more walks to eventually evolve into a leadoff hitter, but for the time being he will be an asset as a defensive replacement in center field and pinch runner for the Nats.
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None of the six roster additions the Nationals have announced should come as a surprise, as Brown, DeRosa, Lannan, and Leon have spent time with the team in 2012, and Perez and Garcia have had impressive minor league seasons and can bolster the roster down the stretch.  My only critique is I am surprised the team did not add Christian Garcia immediately and that they did not recall an additional reliever.  As mentioned above, the bullpen has been worked particularly hard this season, and it would be beneficial to have two additional arms to soak up most of the low-leverage innings this month.  I would have liked to see Ryan Perry receive a promotion as well, as he already occupies a place on the 40-man roster and his 3.07 ERA with 60 strikeouts in 85 innings pitched warrant a place somewhere in the Nationals bullpen.  Otherwise as is typical of general manager Mike Rizzo and the front office, the Nationals made wise decisions with whom they added and these six players will give Davey Johnson additional matchup possibilities late in games and improve the team’s overall depth for the stretch run.

Shameless Plug Alert – Recently I have started co-hosting a weekly Nationals Podcast called the Red Porch Report with Kevin Eaton from Ball Hogs Radio.  We are hoping to grow our audience, so I encourage everyone to download a broadcast and give us a chance.  We appreciate your support. http://www.ballhogsradio.com/category/podcasts/

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