After three dominant seasons as the Nationals stopper in the bullpen, including an appearance in the 2011 All-Star game, Tyler Clippard entered the 2012 season expecting to serve as the late-inning bridge to closer Drew Storen while picking up the occasional save if the situation warranted.  Unfortunately due to Storen’s elbow injury and the command issues of Henry Rodriguez, Clippard was forced into the closer role and has continued his excellence, pitching 68.2 innings this season with a 3.67 ERA and 32 saves, allowing 51 hits and 27 walks against 80 strikeouts.  However, his poor numbers in September, specifically a 9.64 ERA and 17 hits allowed including 2 home runs in 9.1 innings, has left us wondering what is wrong with Tyler Clippard.

In some similarity to Jordan Zimmermann earlier this month, the significant workload Tyler Clippard has undergone since 2009 makes the immediate conclusion that his sheer number of innings pitched is leading to arm fatigue, and his results are suffering as a result.  Clippard’s performance in the 2^nd half of the season has suffered to the tune of 31.1 innings pitched, a 5.74 ERA, 32 hits allowed and 12 walks issued against 37 strikeouts, leading to his demotion in recent days and Storen returning to the closer role.  In a closer examination of his statistics, Clippard has allowed 6 home runs since the All-Star break verses none in the first half, and his rate of stranding baserunners sits at 69.8% for the season (52.8% in September), well below his career 80.6%.

These warning signs lead me to take a closer look at Clippard’s average velocity and his release point for further confirmation of fatigue.  Clippard’s average fastball velocity this season has been 93.52mph, and his changeup this year has averaged 81.74mph with 6.74 inches of downward sink to it. (That is as difficult as the math gets, I promise… thanks to BrooksBaseball.net)  But in the order of his appearances this month, his average fastball velocity has been clocked at: 92.55mph, 93.11mph, 92.33mph, 92.21mph, 91.78mph, 90.72mph, 92.38mph, 92.84mph, 93.55mph, and 93.38mph – There is only one above-average figure and a few troublesome readings in the middle of the sample.  It could be nothing, but another sign potentially pointing toward arm fatigue.

More telling information lies with his changeup, as this month Tyler’s changeup has had velocities and downward movements as follows: 79.06mph/5.22in, 79.55mph/5.17in, 79.43mph/5.22in, 80.5mph/6.19in, 79.84mph/5.36in, 78.0mph/8.05in, 80.24mph/5.50in, 80.10mph/5.44in, 81.61mph/5.12in, 81.02mph/5.19in.  Aside from the one outlying figure in the middle, his changeup velocity has dropped almost a full mile-per-hour and more than an inch less of downward sink this month, with results trending worse in recent games.  Obviously this is not a positive sign, so I wondered if his release point has suffered as well.

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So after digesting that information, Clippard appears to be the recipient of some regression after a terrific first half (1.93 ERA, 19 hits, 43 strikeouts in 37.1 innings pitched) while also seeing his fastball and changeup lose some luster in recent weeks.  Although decreasing velocity and movement are not particularly good signs as the Nationals enter the postseason, the relatively consistent release point tells us he likely does not have an injury, and he is either dealing with arm fatigue and/or a minor flaw in his pitching mechanics.  Considering that the Nationals have given him a 7-day break and a 3-day break already this month, he has received some rest so I tend to disagree with the fatigue argument, nonetheless if he is indeed tired, he will have to pitch through this until after the season.  Without completely dismissing a tired arm as the reason (only he can do that), the most likely cause of Clippard’s struggles involves a slight flaw in his mechanics, coupled with a need to regain his swagger on the mound, along with a bit more of the luck he received in the first half of the year.  Here’s hoping he can cure what is ailing him in the next 10 days, because Clippard will be counted on in numerous high-leverage situations in their upcoming playoff games.

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Amidst the current happiness in NatsTown now that the Nationals have clinched their first playoff berth since returning to Washington, the impending contract situation of Adam LaRoche and whether or not he will remain a National in 2013 has been lost in the shuffle.  In January of 2011, LaRoche signed a 2-year contract with the Nationals for $15 million dollars, which included a mutual option for a third year at $10 million dollars and a $1 million dollar buyout.  After a tumultuous 2011 season that started poorly and resulted in being shut down due to injury in May, LaRoche entered spring training as a question mark for the Washington Nationals, but he has bounced back with a career year in 2012, batting .268/.339/.504 with 31 home runs and 96 runs batted in, while also playing gold glove level defense at first base.

Certainly the Nationals will agree to pick up their side of the contract option, as LaRoche’s left-handed power and defensive wizardry around first base would make the team much stronger in 2013 and for essentially $9 million dollars ($10 million salary minus the $1 million buyout), he is quite a bargain.  However, LaRoche is expected to be the top free agent first baseman this winter in an unusually thin market, (Carlos Lee, Jamey Loney, and Casey Kotchman appear to be his main competition) and it would be stunning if he did not decline his side of the mutual contract option in search of a multi-year deal.    Therefore, unless the unexpected occurs, LaRoche will enter free agency this winter.

LaRoche has been quoted recently that he wants to return to Washington next season, as he likes the city, the Nationals clubhouse, and the overall direction of the franchise.  Nonetheless, with a number of teams looking for a first baseman this winter, namely Baltimore, Boston, St. Louis, and Tampa Bay, LaRoche would be foolish to accept a 1-year contract when he should expect numerous multi-year offers.  This leaves the Nationals in an interesting scenario, as they would probably feel comfortable giving LaRoche a 2-year contract, as Morse, Harper, and Werth should be capable defensively in the outfield, in addition to Ryan Zimmerman at third base through 2014.  On the other hand, factors such as Werth’s advancing age, Harper’s probability of outgrowing center field as he physically matures, Zimmerman’s throwing issues, the potential of infielder Anthony Rendon, not to mention LaRoche will be 33-years-old on Opening Day next season, will give the Nationals front office reason to hesitate signing him past two years.

All of this creates an interesting predicament for the Nationals, as LaRoche has been one of most critical reasons for the team’s success in 2012, but signing him past 2014 creates a roster logjam the team likely does not want.  Conversely, LaRoche’s impressive and consistent track record of success as a hitter, his defensive prowess at first base, and his reputation as a clubhouse leader will have him entertaining multiple 3 and 4-year contract offers this offseason, long-term security difficult for any 33-year-old player to turn down.  The Nationals do have the option of offering LaRoche salary arbitration, but the qualifying offer would likely be about $13 million for 2013, a healthy raise from his $8 million dollar salary this year, but could net the team a draft pick if he eventually signed elsewhere.

I free viagra pill sit far less during the day, and especially when you are anticipating sex and you are going to talk about something which is very important for the man to have a stiff organ. This is because, online prescription for viagra when you complete or perform some part of your life that makes you satisfied physically or mentally, then you love to do it. Adding these to the diet cialis for sale cheap as much as possible to prevent contact with air. Doctors found that not only these sildenafil soft medications improve cardiovascular health, lowering the risk of stroke is increased two to three times in people with the chronic pancreatitis. In the end, expect the Nationals to pick up their side of the option, LaRoche in turn, will decline his side of the option, making him a free agent.  Although many are skeptical, I expect the Nationals to offer LaRoche salary arbitration, in hopes this will cool the market on him and give the team more time to negotiate, and at worst, give the team an always desired draft pick if they lose him to another organization.  After the season is over, I think Mike Rizzo will go to LaRoche and his representatives and explain the Nationals thinking, sell him on the idea of remaining in Washington, and offer him a 2-year contract for $20-25 million dollars, with an option for a 3^rd season tied to games played, and hope he gives them a hometown discount.  As said earlier, other teams will guarantee LaRoche a third and possibly a fourth season as well, so it will come down to how badly Adam wants to remain in Washington.

I think there is a strong chance the Nationals offer LaRoche arbitration, a slim chance he accepts salary arbitration, and a 66%/33% chance he wears another uniform next season, as another team could offer him a 4-year deal worth $44-48 million.  At that point, wisely the Nationals will decide to shift Mike Morse to first base in 2013 and redistribute LaRoche’s salary at other positions to upgrade the roster.  I hope to be proven wrong this winter, but a weak free agent class coupled with a career season has Adam LaRoche set up to be overpaid this winter, both in salary and especially in contract years, and the Nationals should hold strong on 2-years with an option for a third, and if a team trumps that offer, as Hootie and the Blowfish would sing “Let him Go”.

The Plugs -> Follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, Email me your comments at NationalsGM@Gmail.com, Like me on Facebook by searching for NatsGM, and listen to my weekly podcast, the Red Porch Report, at  http://www.ballhogsradio.com/category/red-porch-report/