After searching for a leadoff hitting center fielder since the team arrived in Washington 8 years ago, Thursday general manager Mike Rizzo and the Nationals traded right-handed pitching prospect Alex Meyer to the Minnesota Twins in exchange for outfielder Denard Span.  Just one day after watching Atlanta sign free agent BJ Upton, and with fellow division rival Philadelphia amongst other teams seeking a center fielder, wisely the Nationals struck quickly to resolve their weakness in the outfield.  The Nationals have been rumored to be interested in Span for a few seasons and yesterday, Mike Rizzo finally got his guy, although it came at the price of a top pitching prospect.

Alex Meyer, a Nationals 2011 1^st round pick 23^rd overall from the University of Kentucky, went 10-6 with a 2.86 ERA with 139 strikeouts against 45 walks in 25 starts and 129 innings pitched at Low-A Hagerstown and High-A Potomac in 2012.  Possessing a powerful mid-90s fastball, a true swing-and-miss slider, and a fringy changeup, along with a massive 6’9” 230lb frame, Meyer has the potential to become a true #1 or #2 quality starting pitcher or a devastating late-inning reliever.  This is where the divide occurs, as Meyer’s fans see him as a future starting pitcher with two plus pitches and an average changeup, and his detractors see him as a two-pitch reliever without a third pitch or the command of the strike zone to be a starting pitcher.  Regardless, Meyer is a significant loss to an already diluted Nationals farm system.

Denard Span, 29-years-old next February, batted .283/.342/.395 with 4 home runs and 17 stolen bases in 128 games played last season, and for his 5-year major league career, he is a .284/.357/.389 hitter with 23 home runs and 90 stolen bases.  In addition the defensive metrics rate Span as a well above-average defensive player in center field, allowing the Nationals to move Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth to the corner outfield positions, and creating one of the best collective defensive outfields in baseball.  Span’s left-handed bat, strong prowess for getting on-base as a leadoff hitter, and outstanding defense in center field makes him an ideal fit for the Nationals offense.  Span is signed through 2014, making $4.75 million next season, $6.5 million the following year, and the Nationals hold a cheap club option for 2015 for $9 million dollars with a $500,000 buyout.

This acquisition solidifies the Nationals outfield this offseason, as the team now has their leadoff hitter and has resolved their outfield with Span in center field and Harper and Werth in the corners with Roger Bernadina, Steve Lombardozzi, and Tyler Moore capably backing them up.  As of now, the Nationals have approximately $52 million committed to the payroll on offense, with only first base needing a resolution, leaving the front office with plenty of available payroll and two options: shift Michael Morse, who has 1-year and $7 million left on his contract, from left field to first base or re-sign Adam LaRoche or sign another free agent first baseman and trade Morse for a pitcher or prospects to replenish the farm system.  Procuring Span quickly improves an already strong roster, while still leaving Mike Rizzo in the enviable position of having a strong in-house first base candidate and having the flexibility to improve the roster the rest of this winter.

The loss of Alex Meyer further depletes an already mediocre minor league system for the Nationals, and although his chances are not extraordinarily high, Meyer does have the potential to be a top-of-the-rotation starter if everything comes together.  If this occurs, the Nationals will look quite foolish for parting with a front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, the most valuable commodity in baseball, for an above-average but not All-Star caliber center fielder in this trade.  However, Span is a natural fit for this Nationals team, drastically upgrading the defense in the outfield and the on-base percentage at the top of the lineup, and by trading a prospect the front office did not deplete the major league roster.
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The Nationals essentially made the choice that they preferred Denard Span at 3-years and $21 million dollars if it meant trading Alex Meyer rather than signing B.J. Upton or Michael Bourn at 5-years and $75+ million dollars and keeping Alex Meyer but losing a draft choice: signing either elite free agent would have cost the Nationals their 2013 1^st round pick as compensation.  Considering Span’s career .283/.342/.395 batting line is comparable to Upton’s (.255/.336/.422) and Bourn’s (.272/.339/.365), it is difficult to quibble with the decision that parting with Alex Meyer was worth the upgrade to a roster challenging for the World Series and saving up to $50 million in future payroll.  Although he does not have Upton’s collection of tools or Bourn’s game changing speed, Span clearly makes the Nationals a stronger team in 2013 and while Meyer’s loss does have the potential to burn the team in the future, this was an excellent trade the Nationals should have made.

NatsGM Grade ->            Solid B

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Part 2- Pitching

Projected 2013 Payroll (Hypothetical) – $106 million (Total Offense: $66,671,000)

Currently on 40-Man Roster (18): Tyler Clippard, Erik Davis, Ross Detwiler, Christian Garcia, Gio Gonzalez, Tom Gorzelanny, Nathan Karns, Cole Kimball, John Lannan, Ryan Mattheus, Yunesky Maya, Ryan Perry, Matt Purke, Henry Rodriguez, Craig Stammen, Drew Storen, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann

The Washington Nationals pitching staff was the strength of the team in 2012, as they met or exceeded even the highest expectations entering the season.  The Nationals finished 1^st in the National League (2^nd in MLB) with a staff ERA of 3.33, 3^rd in total strikeouts (4^th overall) with 1325, 10^th in walks allowed (19^th overall) with 497, 1^st  (2^nd overall) in team WHIP (Walks + Hits divided by Innings Pitched) at 1.22,  and 2^nd (2^nd overall) in fewest home runs allowed with 129.  For context, in 2011 the Nationals finished 7^th in the majors with a staff ERA of 3.58, 26^th in strikeouts with 1049, 9^th in walks with 477, and 5^th in home runs allowed with a total of 129.

The Nationals starting rotation was simply masterful last season, staying healthy and making the leap from players with immense potential into true superstar household names, boasting the best ERA in the National League (2^nd in MLB) at 3.40, 18^th in innings pitched with 953 innings pitched, 3^rd in the National League (6^th overall) in total strikeouts with 855, 9^th in the NL (18^th overall) in total walks with 301, and 1^st in the National League (2^nd overall) in Batting Average Against at .240.  Certainly one would like to see the starters pitching deeper into games next season, some of which should occur naturally with the lack of an innings restriction on Stephen Strasburg and the continued maturation of young starters Ross Detwiler, Gio Gonzalez, and Jordan Zimmermann.  Otherwise, expect the starting rotation to continue to be an organizational strength in 2013 and beyond.

The Nationals bullpen had another outstanding season in 2012, as they were 3^rd in the National League (7^th overall) with a 3.23 ERA, 2^nd in innings pitched with 515.1 (7^th in MLB), 7^th in total strikeouts (11^th overall) with 470, 7^th in the NL (10^th in MLB) in walks allowed with 196, and 4^th in batting average against (7th overall) at .231.  Naturally the sheer number of innings the relievers pitched will artificially inflate the total strikeouts and walks allowed categories, but credit the bullpen for doing such an impressive job preventing runs last season, allowing only 200 last year, 6^th best in the National League.  Assuming the team does not trade from its depth this winter, the bullpen should continue to be one of the best relief corps in baseball again in 2013.

In this endeavor, my main concern was finding another starting pitcher to take the place of Edwin Jackson, who had a fine season with the team in 2012 but is angling for a multiyear contract, which the Nationals currently seem hesitant to give him. I needed to find a left-handed reliever to pair with Tom Gorzelanny as both Sean Burnett and Mike Gonzalez are free agents, and I wanted to make every effort not to trade any of the Nationals bullpen depth, as this has been to their success the past two years.  In Part 1 of this piece, I spent $66,671,000 million dollars to construct the offense, thus leaving me approximately $40 million to construct the pitching staff while remaining within our hypothetical budget.  Here is Part 2 of my 2012-2013 Washington Nationals Hypothetical offseason, The Pitching Staff…

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Starting Rotation

#1 Starter –                        Stephen Strasburg                          $3,900,000

#2 Starter –                        Gio Gonzalez                                     $6,350,000

#3 Starter –                        Jordan Zimmermann                    $4,800,000

#4 Starter –                        Ross Detwiler                                    $2,100,000

#5 Starter –                        John Lannan                                     $5,000,000

Total Starting Rotation                                                                $22,150,000

In one of the most over-discussed topics in recent baseball history, the Stephen Strasburg innings limit shutdown overshadowed his excellent first full season in the big leagues, in which he delivered the Nationals a 15-6 record with a 3.16 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 197 strikeouts against 48 walks in 159.1 innings pitched. Now that any innings restriction should be in his rearview mirror, Strasburg will open 2013 as the Nationals opening day starter and Ace of the pitching staff.

After mortgaging quite a bit of the Nationals farm system last winter in sending AJ Cole, Tom Milone, Derek Norris, and Brad Peacock to Oakland to acquire him, Gio Gonzalez responded by flourishing in his first season in Washington, posting a 21-8 record with a 2.89 ERA, 1.129 WHIP, with 207 strikeouts against 149 hits and 76 walks allowed while finishing 3^rd in the National League CY Young Award voting. His infectious and vibrant personality was a positive addition to the clubhouse, and by signing a 5-year contract extension with the Nationals last winter, Gio should remain at the front of the Washington rotation in 2013 and future seasons.

Last season was Jordan Zimmermann’s first full year back from his Tommy John surgery in 2009, and he was truly outstanding in 2012, providing the Nationals with a 2.94 ERA in 32 starts and 195.2 innings pitched, allowing 186 hits and 43 walks while striking out 153 batters.  Zimmermann did seem to tire down the stretch, posting a 4.41 ERA in September with 36 hits and 11 walks allowed over 34.2 innings pitched but with a full offseason to recover and another year removed from his elbow surgery, expect Jordan to build on his terrific season this past year and establish himself as one of the best right-handed starters in the National League.

Like a proud father watching his son, Nationals fans observed Ross Detwiler go from a talented but inconsistent pitcher who struggled repeating his delivery to one of the best young left-handed starting pitchers in baseball last season, posting a 10-8 record with a 3.40 ERA in 164.1 innings pitched with 105 strikeouts against 52 walks.  In addition, Detwiler was masterful in Game 4 against St. Louis, pitching 6 innings and only allowing 1 run on 3 hits to the surging Cardinal lineup.  Although it took Detwiler a while to refine his delivery, Ross has two above-average fastballs and a developing breaking pitch, giving him some of the best pure left-handed stuff in the National League, and is still scratching the surface of his potential.  The Nationals patience with Detwiler’s development should be rewarded in the years to come, and we should expect another solid season from Ross in 2013.

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Those four starters are firmly entrenched but after declining to offer Edwin Jackson salary arbitration, the Nationals must find a replacement for the 189.2 innings he pitched this past season.  As with every offseason, almost every team is looking to acquire starting pitching, and fortunately this winter offers some interesting names in seemingly every price point and category.  If you are looking to sign a #1 starter, let me introduce you to Zach Greinke.  If you cannot fit an Ace into the payroll, a quality #2 or #3 starting pitcher such as Dan Haren, Kyle Lohse, Anibal Sanchez, or Ryan Dempster would bolster most every team’s roster.  If they do not suit your fancy, there is still Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy, Edwin Jackson, Jeremy Guthrie, Joe Saunders, and Joe Blanton who can add depth to most any starting rotation.  Rather than free agency, perhaps you want to find a pitcher via the trade market, Ricky Nolasco, Gavin Floyd, Jason Vargas, Justin Masterson, and the majority of the Tampa Bay rotation is available in the right deal.

I must admit I thought the Nationals made a mistake not offering salary arbitration to Edwin Jackson, who would have been expensive at $13 million dollars but would have required only a 1-year commitment.  At 29-years-old Jackson has made it known he is seeking a multiyear commitment, attempting to capitalize on his 2012 season in which he made 31 starts and pitched 189.2 innings with a 4.03 ERA, 1.218 WHIP, and 168 strikeouts against 58 walks.  If Jackson accepted arbitration, the team would continue to have one of the best rotations in baseball, and if he signed elsewhere, the Nationals would receive a draft choice as compensation.  This seemed like a win-win scenario for me, but the front office disagreed with me, making it fairly official Jackson’s time in Washington has ended.  This decision leaves the Nationals in the position of looking for a starting pitcher, specifically a consistent veteran innings-eater, capable and expected to produce similar or better numbers than Jackson did in 2012.

The Nationals do have a reasonably good in-house candidate to act as the 5^th starter in former opening day starter John Lannan, who owns a career 4.01 ERA and 1.424 WHIP in 783.2 innings pitched.  Lannan spent the majority of 2012 in Triple-A Syracuse after being defeated by Ross Detwiler for the final slot in the starting rotation, but in the 6 starts and 32.2 innings Lannan pitched in Washington last year, he produced a 4-1 record with a 4.13 ERA, a 1.439 WHIP, and 17 strikeouts against 14 walks.  Lannan made $5 million dollars last season in his second year of arbitration, and will command a similar salary in 2013,  his last year under team control.  While he is far from the definition of sexy, one should expect Lannan to pitch 160-190 approximately league average innings in 2013, meaning his numbers should be fairly similar to Edwin Jackson’s numbers next season at half the price.

This gives the Nationals an interesting predicament going forward this winter, because on a risk verses reward basis, it is going to be difficult for the team to significantly upgrade from John Lannan without increasing payroll both in 2013 and future seasons.  Don’t believe me, for comparison sake-

John Lannan Career – 4.01 ERA, 1.424 WHIP, 410 strikeouts, 296 walks in 783.2 innings, ERA+ 103

Edwin Jackson Career – 4.40 ERA, 1.438 WHIP, 969 strikeouts, 497 walks in 1,268.2 innings, ERA+ 98

Anibal Sanchez Career – 3.75 ERA, 1.346 WHIP, 733 strikeouts, 320 walks in 869 innings, ERA+ 110

Dan Haren Career – 3.66 ERA, 1.181 WHIP, 1,585 strikeouts, 395 walks in 1,876.2 innings, ERA+ 116

Shaun Marcum Career – 3.75 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, 746 strikeouts, 282 walks in 916.2 innings, ERA+ 112

It is a prescription medicine cialis vs levitra but doctors don’t hesitate in prescribing this drug to their people suffering from mild to acute erectile dysfunction. http://seanamic.com/imes-signs-six-figure-contract-with-abp-humber/ cialis generika Libido is never constant; it varies over the course of their lifetime. A good pop-up blocker can block ads and other undesired top pharmacy shop cialis no prescription windows without interfering with movement or motor coordination (rota-rod experiment). Changing hormone order generic viagra seanamic.com levels, chemical changes in the brain, vitamin deficiencies, diet, and body mechanics may all play a role in causing PMS symptoms. Zack Greinke Career – 3.77 ERA, 1.247 WHIP, 1,332 strikeouts, 379 walks in 1492 innings, ERA+ 114

Certainly this is a quick and crude comparison of just a few pitching categories, but what surprised me was how well Lannan compared with the others, particularly when considering the injury concerns of Haren and Marcum and the well-stated expectation that each pitcher expects a multiyear commitment at $10+ million dollars annually. If the Nationals training staff was happy with Dan Haren’s medicals and I was able to sign him to a 1-year contract with a mutual or team option for 2014, I would quickly make that signing and work to fit his salary into payroll, however with inferior starting pitcher Jeremy Guthrie already able to secure a 3-year contract this winter, I question whether he will settle for less.  Therefore, after considering every pitcher available and the consequences to signing or acquiring each player, I have (surprisingly) become convinced the best course of action for the Nationals both in the short-term and the long-term this winter is to offer salary arbitration to John Lannan to serve at the team’s 5^th starter next season, and if they feel the need to improve during the year prospects Nathan Karns, Alex Meyer, Matt Purke, and Sammy Solis could potentially bolster the pitching staff, or they could look to acquire a starter via trade.

In addition, I would look to sign 2-3 minor league free agents to fill out the Syracuse rotation this season and acts as reinforcements behind the Nationals starters.  Some names I would aggressively try to sign include Jeremy Bonderman, Dallas Braden, Philip Humber, and Chris Volstad.  Finally, converted reliever Ryan Perry is expected to begin the year in Triple-A and serve as additional depth.

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Bullpen

Closer –                               Drew Storen                                      $1,700,000

Stopper –                            Tyler Clippard                                 $4,400,000

Middle Relief –                 Craig Stammen                                $900,000

Middle Relief –                 Christian Garcia                              $550,000

LH Reliever –                     Mike Gonzalez (Re-Signed)              $3,000,000

Long Relief RH –              Ryan Mattheus                                 $550,000

Long Relief LH –               Tom Gorzelanny                             $2,800,000

Total Bullpen                                                                                     $13,900,000

Drew Storen had a year to forget in 2012, discovering bone chips in his pitching elbow during spring training which sidelined him until July, and blowing the save in devastating fashion in Game 5 against St. Louis.  In between those terrible events, Storen returned midseason to provide the Nationals with a 2.37 ERA and 4 saves in 37 appearances and 30.1 innings pitched, giving up 22 hits and 8 walks against 24 strikeouts.  Certainly it will take a while for Storen and Nationals fans to move on from the difficult blown save loss in the playoffs but this one outing is not indicative of his talent level, and expect Storen to return in 2013 as the Nationals closer and prove why he is one of the best young closers in baseball.

After spending 2010 and 2011 establishing himself as one of the best relievers in major league baseball, Tyler Clippard was forced into the closer role last season after Drew Storen injured his elbow and Henry Rodriguez lost control of the strike zone.  Once placed in the closer role, Clippard was excellent most of the summer before an inconsistent stretch late in September to post a 3.72 ERA with 32 saves in 72.2 innings pitched, allowing 55 hits and 29 walks against 84 strikeouts.  Many have wondered if the impressive innings total Clippard has posted the past 3 seasons caught up to him at the end of 2012, but those struggles aside, Clippard should return to Washington next season in his comfortable role as the 8^th inning stopper and bridge to closer Drew Storen in the 9^th inning.

After spending the majority of his early career as a starter with the Nationals, during the 2010 season the front office decided to shift Craig Stammen to the bullpen, and ever since he has flourished, posting a 2.34 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, and 87 strikeouts against 36 walks in 88.1 innings pitched last season.  Stammen’s ability to strike hitters out, avoid giving up home runs, and to pitch multiple innings make him an asset pitching in relief, and he should return next season to pitch plenty of high leverage innings in the middle to late innings.

A testament to the Nationals scouting department, Christian Garcia overcame two Tommy John surgeries earlier in his career with the Yankees to sign with the Nationals at an open tryout in 2011.  Garcia took advantage of his second chance as he dominated minor league hitters in 2012 with a 0.86 ERA and 21 saves in 52.1 innings pitched, allowing only 31 hits and 17 walks against 66 strikeouts, forcing the front office to summon him to Washington during September.  Once arriving in Washington Garcia continued to dominate, using his 96-98mph fastball and above-average curveball and changeup to post a 2.13 ERA in 12.2 innings pitched with 15 strikeouts and two walks.  Although there has been some scuttlebutt from various members of the Washington Nationals about him shifting to the starting rotation next year, I would expect the front office to eventually take the more prudent approach with Garcia, who has already rehabilitated from two Tommy John surgeries in the past, and have him remain a potentially dominating force in middle relief next season.

Like most Nationals fans, I hope the front office can reach an agreement with Sean Burnett to return to Washington, but being only 30-years-old and coming off a terrific season in 2012, Burnett is seeking a 3-4-year contract, meaning he very likely will pitch somewhere else next season.  I would allow Burnett to sign elsewhere at these terms as well and would turn my attention to re-signing veteran lefty reliever Mike Gonzalez, who signed with the Nationals during the season and was excellent, producing a 3.03 ERA with 39 strikeouts and 16 walks in 35.2 innings and was especially effective against left-handed hitters, allowing only a .179/.257/.269 batting line and 1 home run last season.  For his 10-year career, Gonzalez owns a 2.94 ERA with 451 strikeouts against 180 walks allowed and 56 saves in 394.1 innings pitched.

Rumors have Gonzalez wanting to return to Washington but insisting on a 2-year contract, giving the Nationals front office reason to hesitate considering he will turn 35-years-old next season.  However, taking into account the limited market for left-handed relievers this winter and the Nationals clear need for another lefty in the bullpen next season, I would feel comfortable offering Gonzalez a 1-year contract worth $3.0 million dollars with a Mutual Option for 2014 worth $4.5 million, with a $1 million dollar buyout.  Also, to further entice Gonzalez and his agent Scott Boras, I would include that the option is automatically triggered for 2014 if he makes 40 appearances during the 2013 season, something he has done 3 of the past 4 seasons.

Tom Gorzelanny is expected to return to the Nationals again in 2013 as the other left-handed pitcher in the bullpen and someone capable of pitching multiple innings and making the occasional spot start.  While he struggled with inconsistency earlier in his career as a pure starting pitcher, Gorzelanny seems to have found his niche as a reliever, flourishing in relief last season posting a 2.88 ERA with 62 strikeouts, 30 walks, and 65 hits allowed in 72 innings pitched.  Entering his final year of arbitration, Gorzelanny should be a strong contributor to the Nationals relief corps next season.

The seventh and final position in the Nationals bullpen should have some competition, with Ryan Mattheus entering spring training with the inside track to secure the last spot.  Mattheus used his excellent sinker and slider repertoire to post a 2.85 ERA with 41 strikeouts, 19 walks, and 8 home runs allowed in 66.1 innings pitched last season and was particularly effective against right-handed hitters, holding them to a .240/.293/.373 batting line in 2012.  Henry Rodriguez flashed some moments of brilliance in amongst extreme bouts of wildness last season and saw his season abruptly ended with a right elbow injury in August; he remains a candidate to be traded this winter but if not, he will enter Viera next spring hoping to prove his lack of command last year was due to his injury.  A true wild-card, if his command can improve, he gives the Nationals a dimension with his overwhelming fastball velocity they do not currently have in the bullpen.  Erik Davis, Cole Kimball and Yunesky Maya are expected to begin the season in Triple-A Syracuse and will serve as depth in case of injury during the year.

****

Total Salary for Pitching –             $36,050,000 ($3,279,000 Under Budget)

Similar to Part 1 on the offense, I went against my initial instinct to tinker with the pitching staff, deciding to offer arbitration to John Lannan to round out the starting rotation and re-sign Mike Gonzalez to act as a second left-hander and veteran presence in the bullpen.  As stated earlier, the Nationals were atop many of the major pitching categories last season, and I do not anticipate major regression coming from any of the team’s pitchers next year.  While the offense should improve next year, make no mistake, the eventual success of the Nationals in 2013 will depend on their youthful and overwhelmingly talented pitching staff.

While pondering the Nationals pitching staff, I found two main concerns entering 2013: First, the starting rotation last season was extraordinarily healthy, with Strasburg, Zimmermann, Gonzalez, Jackson, and Detwiler combining to make 150 of 162 total starts.  There is certainly no scientific data to tell me the starters will develop more injuries and/or miss more starts next year, but my gut instinct tells me this level of consistency from the starting rotation will be difficult to maintain in 2013.  Secondly, I know the Nationals have terrific depth in their bullpen, but the starting rotation has not been pitching enough total innings the past few seasons, putting additional strain on the relief corps.  There should be some natural improvement in this regard next season due to Strasburg’s lack of any restriction and the further maturation of starters Ross Detwiler, Gio Gonzalez, and Jordan Zimmermann, but the starting rotation must make it their goal to pitch 975-1,000 innings next season to truly establish itself as one of the elite rotations in major league baseball.

After many years of drafting and harnessing their young pitching prospects, the Nationals pitching staff developed into one of the best in baseball last season, leading the National League in ERA and the principle reason the team won the National League East in 2012.  The starting rotation should again be one of the best in baseball, and with another year of development and maturation from the Nationals front four starters and the projected lateral move from Edwin Jackson to John Lannan, there stands an excellent chance their performance could improve in 2013.  If this occurs as I expect, the relief corps should have fewer innings to pitch, allowing Davey Johnson to maximize the usage of his best relievers in high-leverage situations, which logic dictates would give them an excellent chance of continuing to post excellent results and serve as one of the best bullpens in baseball.  If their pitchers can remain relatively healthy, especially those in the rotation, I am optimistic the pitching staff will lead the Nationals to the playoffs again next season.  I cannot wait for Viera and spring training to begin.  Play Ball!

“Tip of the Fedora” and Thanks to Fangraphs.com, Baseball-Reference.com, MLB.com, and MLBTradeRumors.com for their help with the numbers I’ve used throughout this article.

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Part 1 – Hitters

Projected 2013 Payroll (Hypothetical) – $106 million       ($92,534,000 million in 2012)

Current 40-man Roster (20) :      Roger Bernadina, Corey Brown, Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa, Jesus Flores, Bryce Harper, Sandy Leon, Steve Lombardozzi, Chris Marrero, Tyler Moore, Mike Morse, Eury Perez, Wilson Ramos, Anthony Rendon, Carlos Rivero, Jhonatan Solano, Kurt Suzuki, Chad Tracy, Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman

Now that we have had the proper time to allow our wounds to heal from the playoffs, it is time to officially turn the page on 2012, and begin to focus on 2013.  Each year, the first offseason piece I write involves my hypothetical offseason, and what I would do if given the title of General Manager.  Obviously there are numerous flaws in this task, given that I do not have the ability to look at player contracts, negotiate with agents, check medical records, etc., however, I have gone to great lengths to make sure the assumptions I make are as accurate as possible.  This is not intended to be fantasy baseball, rather a real examination of the decisions the team must make this winter and how each decision affects another, and my opinion of the best choices the front office can make to maximize the team’s roster within payroll in 2013 and future years.

In this exercise, I have tried to identify the best resolution to the Nationals current situation with free agent first baseman Adam LaRoche and incumbent left fielder Mike Morse, and how the team should attempt to improve its on-base percentage and overall team defense while staying within a $106 million dollar budget.  This number is the biggest assumption in the piece, as I am presuming the team increases payroll almost 14%, but considering overall attendance was up over 18% in 2012 year-over-year, the team reaped the benefits of three home playoffs games, and the Nationals television agreement is up for renegotiation with MASN, payroll should see another healthy increase in 2013 .  Logically one could reason the Washington D.C. market can support a payroll in excess of $106 million, but in respect to being conservative with the numbers and making this as accurate as possible, I feel comfortable with this payroll ceiling.  Obviously if the number is higher than $106 million, many other players and scenarios would be available to the Nationals this winter (and me in this article), so please keep this in mind.  With these caveats being said, here is my 2012-2013 Washington Nationals hypothetical offseason, divided into two parts… Today is Part 1, The Offense-

My Hypothetical 2013 Starting Lineup

Catcher –             Kurt Suzuki                      $6,450,000

First Base –         Mike Morse                       $7,000,000

Second Base –     Danny Espinosa                $550,000

Shortstop –          Ian Desmond                     $3,250,000

Third Base –        Ryan Zimmerman           $14,100,000

Left Field –          Nick Swisher                       $13,000,000

Center Field –      Bryce Harper                     $2,000,000

Right Field –        Jayson Werth                    $16,571,000

Total Starters =                                              $62,921,000

Entering last season, the catcher position was seen as one of the deeper positions on the team, but an unusual rash of injuries depleted the position and certainly tried the depth of the organization.  Wilson Ramos entered last season looking to build on his impressive rookie season (.267/.334/.445 15 home runs), but a freak knee injury in early May left him with a torn ACL, abruptly ending his sophomore season.  Reports have Ramos on schedule to be fully healthy for spring training, but expect the Nationals to bring him along slowly this spring to insure his long-term health.

As a result of Ramos’ injury, general manager Mike Rizzo acquired catcher Kurt Suzuki from Oakland in early August to slow the opposition’s running game and add a veteran presence behind the plate.  Once in Washington, Suzuki batted .267/.321/.404 with 5 home runs in 146 at-bats and is a career .255/.311/.379 hitter, in addition to his reputation as an above-average defender behind the plate.  Although both Ramos and Suzuki will likely receive less playing time than they might prefer this year, the pairing should form one of the best catching combinations in baseball, and this partnership could be mutually beneficial considering Ramos knee injury and could keep them fresh from the taxing summertime humidity of Washington D.C., saving them in expectation of a deep playoff run.  Sandy Leon and Jhonatan Solano will serve as depth in the minor leagues in case of an injury, and the expectation is that Jesus Flores will be non-tendered if they cannot find a trade for him in the next few days.

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The biggest decision for the Nationals front office this winter involves whether or not to re-sign incumbent first baseman Adam LaRoche after offering him salary arbitration last month, which LaRoche declined.  Coming off a spectacular season that saw him hit 33 home runs and win the National League Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Awards, LaRoche is looking to parlay his success this season into a multiyear contract taking him through the majority of the rest of his career.  If I could convince LaRoche to sign a 2-year contract to return, I would do so and be quite content, but it seems like if he was satisfied with only two years, he would have re-signed by now.  Therefore, after much soul-searching and hard as I worked to find a way to re-sign LaRoche in this experiment, the severe risk of overpaying with a probable 3yr-4yr deal worth $12+ million annually would be far too limiting to the Nationals in future years.  Without question, the Nationals will miss LaRoche’s defense at first base and his left-handed bat does a nice job balancing and complementing the Nationals predominantly right-handed lineup.  That said, LaRoche turned 33-years-old earlier this month, is coming off his career season, and stands an excellent chance of being a below-average first baseman as soon as 2014.  For these reasons, with reservation, I would allow LaRoche to sign elsewhere and replace him with Mike Morse as the starting first baseman in 2013.

Granted, this scenario I am proposing of losing Adam LaRoche is not ideal and has warts to it as he is outstanding defensively and a leader in the clubhouse, but I think it is the best solution for these reasons: Morse is no longer a left fielder defensively because of his poor range, but his lack of foot speed and agility can be masked at first base and his huge frame and solid hands are assets at the position, meaning that while he will not be LaRoche’s equal defensively, with some work he could develop into an adequate defender at the position, and his offensive numbers project similarly or slightly better than LaRoche in 2013. Signed for 1-year and $7 million dollars, Morse should practically replicate LaRoche next season on a shorter and cheaper contract.

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Aside from the franchise’s critical decision at first base, the rest of the infield is spoken for with Danny Espinosa the starting second baseman, Ian Desmond the everyday shortstop, and Ryan Zimmerman playing third base.  Danny Espinosa was rather inconsistent this past season, seemingly alternating hot and cold streaks at the plate to produce a .247/.315/.402 batting line with 17 home runs and 20 stolen bases in 2012.  Although Danny struggled batting left-handed more than the team would prefer (.233/.303/.391), Espinosa’s outstanding gold-glove caliber defense, impressive power numbers, and potential to breakout in his third full season in the major leagues make him one of the most promising young middle infielders in baseball.

While far from a guarantee, as I mentioned above many baseball players tend to “break out” in their third full season in the big leagues, and perhaps the greatest example in recent memory of this theory was the 2012 version of Ian Desmond, who finally realized his immense potential this year batting .292/.335/.511 with 25 home runs and 21 stolen bases, while missing a month with an oblique injury.  The Nationals are expected to try and sign Desmond to a long-term contract extension this offseason, but regardless if they are successful in this quest or not, count on Ian being the team’s starting shortstop next season and beyond.

Ryan Zimmerman, the Face of the Franchise, struggled early last season with injuries, but after a miraculous cortisone shot in May, he exploded to post a .282/.346/.478 batting line with 25 home runs and 95 runs batted in.  His quiet excellence is appreciated by Nationals fans better than the national media, and Zimmerman returns next season as a strong Gold Glove and Silver Slugger candidate as one of the best third baseman in baseball.

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While it remains unclear if Bryce Harper acts as the Nationals starter in center field or a corner outfield position next season, what is most certainly clear is he just produced one of the best seasons for a teenager in baseball history.  Harper arrived in Washington in late April due to Werth’s injury, and never looked back, hitting .270/.340/.477 with 22 home runs and 18 stolen bases while earning the National League Rookie of the Year Award.  As mentioned earlier in regard to Werth, it will be interesting to see if Bryce continues to bat #2 in the lineup again in 2013 or if Davey Johnson decides to slide him down the lineup to maximize his chances to drive in runs.  Either way, Bryce Harper is poised to build on his impressive rookie season and seems ready to become one of the most feared hitters in the National League, perhaps as soon as next year.

This still leaves a position available in the Nationals outfield, as I shifted Mike Morse to first base as it is time to acknowledge his defensive shortcomings in the outfield.  Assuming the Nationals make the decision to improve their defense in the outfield, do they feel comfortable with Roger Bernadina and/or Tyler Moore in left field?  Or do they decide to improve by obtaining someone else through free agency (Michael Bourn, Josh Hamilton, Shane Victorino, BJ Upton) or via trade (Shin-Soo Choo, Alex Gordon, Justin Upton), either the leadoff hitting center fielder the team has coveted since returning to Washington or a slugging corner outfielder?

So to answer this riddle I decided to ask a separate question… What does this outfielder need to be?  He needs to be a left-handed hitter to theoretically replace Adam LaRoche and balance the predominantly right-handed hitting lineup.  This player needs above-average to elite on-base skills and power in addition to being an asset defensively.  There does not necessarily need to be a long-term commitment to the player, as the organization has promising outfield prospect Brian Goodwin along with others in the minor leagues, but the team could seek a permanent solution if the possibility presented itself.  After much consideration for the best possible fit considering team need, contract expectations, and how it fits the organization’s plan in the short-term and long-term, I think the best solution for the Nationals is to sign free agent corner outfielder Nick Swisher to a 3-year $46.5 million dollar contract ($13.0, $14.5, $16.0) with a Mutual Option for 2016 at $17 million dollars with a $3 million dollar buyout.

Swisher, 32-years-old at the end of this month, is one of the more consistent players in baseball, posting 8 consecutive seasons of 20+ home runs, has played 148+ games 7 years-in-a-row, and owns a career .256/.361/.467 batting line.  In addition, Swisher grades out as an average, or slightly above-average defender in right field, and has experience playing left field and first base.  This signing keeps Bryce Harper in center field next season and creates the question if Swisher or Werth moves to left field.  The defensive metrics, in addition to my eyes, tell me Swisher is the superior defender in right field, but Werth’s contract and standing in the clubhouse would make this less than a slam dunk decision.  Either way, his addition would dramatically upgrade the Nationals offensively and defensively in the outfield.

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Bench

Backup #1 –        Roger Bernadina              $1,100,000

Backup #2 –        Steve Lombardozzi         $550,000

Backup #3 –        Tyler Moore                       $550,000

Backup #4 –        Wilson Ramos                   $550,000

Backup #5 –        Chad Tracy                          $1,000,000 plus Incentives

Total Bench =                                                    $3,750,000

The Nationals bench, better known collectively as The Goon Squad, produced one of the best seasons in recent memory in 2012, hitting .283/.372/.429 for the season and showing a propensity at pinch hitting with a .288/.367/.420 batting line with 4 home runs.  The Nationals bench had been a particular team weakness in 2011 and seasons prior, but Mike Rizzo and Davey Johnson re-shaped their bench last season and made it one of the strengths of the team.  Most of the main components are expected to return in 2013, hoping to recapture the collective magic the group had last year.

After teasing the Nationals front office and fans for years with his combination of tools and talent, Roger Bernadina found his niche this season as a late-inning defensive replacement and as a left-handed pinch hitter, batting .291/.372/.405 with 5 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 129 games and 227 at-bats.  Bernadina should receive a nice raise in arbitration this winter and expects to return as a versatile backup outfielder at all three positions.  Steve Lombardozzi batted .273/.317/.354 over 384 at-bats in 2012, starting in left field and second base during the lengthy injuries to Mike Morse and Ian Desmond during the year.  Lombardozzi’s lack of power makes him less than ideal as a starter, but his defensive versatility, ability to switch hit, and his quick, line drive swing profiles well in a reserve capacity.

Tyler Moore first caught my eye with his impressive play in Viera last spring, and cemented himself as a fan favorite with his monster hit in Game 1 against the Cardinals.  Moore capitalized on his early season promotion to bat .263/.327/.513 with 10 home runs in 156 at-bats in Washington last year.  A below-average defensive player with more swing and miss than ideal, Moore profiles as a productive and versatile right-handed power hitter off the bench who is particularly effective against left-handed pitching and should resume that role in Washington in 2013. Chad Tracy arrived in spring training with little fanfare but took advantage of a non-roster invitation to spring training and turned it into a key role as a left-handed pinch hitter with power and veteran presence in the clubhouse.  Tracy found a knack for pinch hitting in 2012 hitting .275/.367/.431, enticing Mike Rizzo to sign him to a guaranteed contract for 2013.  Tracy’s ability to capably play both first and third base defensively, his skill as a left-handed pinch hitter, and veteran leadership should make him the leader of The Goon Squad again next season.

****

Total Offense =                                                $66,671,000  

Overall I did little to tinker with the Nationals offense this winter, focusing on the assumption that healthier seasons from Mike Morse, Wilson Ramos, and Jayson Werth, and some natural improvement from Danny Espinosa and Bryce Harper should allow the offense to have better numbers in 2013.  Certainly some regression should be expected from Ian Desmond and the bench as a whole next year, but overall I expect the team to stay consistent with their 9^th place finish in Batting Average .261, 6^th in Slugging Percentage .428, and 8^th in Home Runs with 194.  The one area I believe the Nationals need to focus on improving is its .322 On-Base Percentage, 12^th best in baseball.  This was the major factor in the only roster move I made on offense.

The only change I made was allowing Adam LaRoche to sign elsewhere as a free agent and collecting draft pick compensation, and replacing him with someone younger, more versatile, and most importantly, with greater on-base skills in Nick Swisher.  His ability to switch-hit replaces LaRoche’s left-handed bat and balances the Nationals lineup, and Swisher’s career .361 on-base percentage is superior to LaRoche’s .338 on-base percentage, and, in my opinion, upgrades the offense overall.   Also, Swisher’s ability to play both corner outfield spots and first base allows the Nationals some position flexibility in the years ahead, as the team has future roster questions as Mike Morse is only signed through 2013, Ryan Zimmerman’s throwing motion could eventually force him to first base, super-prospects CF Brian Goodwin and 3B Anthony Rendon could hit their way to Washington in the next 18 months, and Bryce Harper will inevitably physically outgrow playing center field.

Signing Swisher means giving his former team, the New York Yankees, our 1^st round pick as draft compensation next June, a major obstacle and the biggest negative to signing him this winter.  However, with the Nationals needing to upgrade their offense before next season, the fact that Adam LaRoche signing elsewhere will net the team a similar draft pick to the one they lose, and each of the options available this winter (aside from Shane Victorino) would cost the Nationals either a draft pick for a free agent or prospects in a trade, I decided to go ahead and sign the best fit for the team, and the most consistent, safest player on a risk verses reward basis available on the market in Nick Swisher.  The entirety of these reasons, along with my feeling that he can be signed to a contract similar to LaRoche this winter due to supply and demand considerations of the plentiful outfielder market verses the limited market for first baseman, has convinced me signing Swisher is the smartest move for the Nationals to upgrade their lineup this winter, while staying within a hypothetical $106 million dollar budget.

Part 2- The Pitching Staff coming Thanksgiving Weekend!

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