A former 3-time All-Star, only 32-years-old, and available on a 1-year “prove yourself” contract – sounds like the perfect recipe for a shrewd free agent signing.  That is certainly what I thought as the Nationals announced last December when they had signed starting pitcher Dan Haren to a 1-year $13 million contract to replace Edwin Jackson as the durable veteran workhorse in the starting rotation.  Although Haren was one of the most consistent starting pitchers in baseball from 2005-2011, an unusually mediocre season in 2012 coupled with questions about his back and hip, allowed the Nationals to scoop him up.

However Haren continued to scuffle through an unimpressive spring with a 6.39 ERA, and did not provide much reason for optimism last Friday night against the Reds as his struggles continued into the regular season, allowing 6 runs and 9 hits in only 4 innings pitched.  Because of his difficult season in 2012 and his continued underwhelming numbers in 2013, I decided to chart his start Thursday to closely observe Haren and see if he is a declining pitcher or if he can rebound to his previous excellent form.

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The scheduling gods did not do Haren any favors, having his first start on the road at Great American Ballpark against Cincinnati, followed by a start against the quality hitting Chicago White Sox lineup on the brink of being swept by the Nationals.  His results improved Thursday evening, as Haren allowed three runs and ten hits over five innings, with five strikeouts against zero walks.  He threw 101 pitches in total, 65 for strikes, and according to my numbers, 61 pitches were 2-seam and 4-seam fastballs and 40 were off-speed pitches, either his splitter or his cut-fastball.
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This performance had both positives and negatives: On the positive side, Haren threw 64% strikes for his outing, induced eight pure swings-and-misses, and struck out five hitters in his five innings.  Also, according to BrooksBaseball.net, his average fastball velocity last night was 90.3mph, topping out at 92.2mph, more than enough to challenge major league hitters and more than 1.5mph faster than his average fastball velocity in 2012.

Conversely, Haren only threw first pitch strikes to 15 of the 26 hitters he faced, allowed ten hits including a few that were particularly hard hit and over the heart of the plate, and only lasted five innings before giving way to the bullpen.  In addition, only 62.3% of his fastballs (38 of 61) were for strikes, poor fastball command for someone known for excellent control and further explains the low percentage of first pitch strikes.  This uneven effort was not the dominating, rebound performance Nationals fans were hoping for, yet his start still gave the team a chance to eventually win the game.

Most Nationals fans, including myself, were excited the team signed Haren to take the place of Edwin Jackson in the starting rotation and considered it an upgrade to the roster overall.  Without question only two starts against two power-hitting lineups fits the definition of a small sample size, but if Haren continues to pitch from behind in the count, combined with throwing too many pitches in the middle of the plate, he will struggle to pitch deep into games. It is far too early to hit the panic button with Haren, especially considering his track record of success, but he must throw more first pitch strikes and command his fastball better going forward if he wants his numbers to improve.  I would not bet against his ability to rebound going forward, but as someone who boldly predicted Cy Young votes for Haren this season, I must admit his first two starts have tempered my expectations.

Although technically Houston and Texas opened the 2013 regular season Sunday evening, I consider Monday Opening Day, and this special day should be celebrated as a national holiday.  After a long offseason to lick their wounds from their painful Game 5 playoff exit, the Nationals today start their journey toward their second consecutive division title.  In the new position of being the favorite, the team will need to manage expectations if they are to capture their second consecutive NL East division championship.

Before the Nationals unveil their new banner today and Stephen Strasburg takes the hill, I wanted to share my prognostications for the forthcoming season, both with the Nats and around major league baseball.

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General manager Mike Rizzo and the Nationals front office must be commended for a fantastic offseason, as they had the difficult task of improving a team with the best record in baseball the previous season.  Although many thought the team would be relatively quiet this winter, the Nationals took the opposite approach as one of the more active teams during the Hot Stove season.

The Nationals organization has made little secret of its desire for a leadoff hitting centerfielder since they arrived from  Montreal, going through 30+ different people trying to find the solution (remember Lastings Milledge, Nook Logan, and Nyjer Morgan).  Finally this winter the team solved this long-standing problem, as they sent highly regarded prospect Alex Meyer to Minnesota in return for Denard Span.  Span is a terrific defender and has a career .357 on-base percentage, making him an ideal choice to fill this role.

However, the team did not stand pat with Span. Next the Nationals signed free agent starting pitcher Dan Haren to a 1-year $13 million dollar contract to replace departed starter Edwin Jackson and provide stability to the back of the starting rotation.  Next, the team took some time to allow the market to develop, but eventually they re-signed first baseman Adam LaRoche to a 2-year deal to stay in Washington.  LaRoche’s defensive wizardry, solid left-handed bat, and calming influence was important to keep in Washington, but this signing meant the team needed to find a new home for Mike Morse.

Therefore, shortly after the ink was dry on LaRoche’s new deal, Rizzo turned around and traded Morse back to his original team, the Seattle Mariners in a 3-way trade with the Oakland Athletics; in return, the Nationals received pitching prospects AJ Cole (remember him?), Blake Treinen, and Ian Krol to replenish their farm system.  While it will be difficult to watch Beast Mode hitting homers in another jersey this season, this was a smart baseball decision as Morse had nowhere to consistently play this season, and the Nationals received some talented pitchers.  This trade was one of the best offseason moves in all of baseball this winter, in my opinion.

Finally, after everyone thought the front office was finished for the winter and packing for Viera, stunningly the Nationals signed free agent closer Rafael Soriano to a 2-year contract to bolster the already formidable Nats bullpen.  His arrival will shift proven relievers Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen into setup roles this season, and adds further depth to an already proven relief corps.

These moves allowed for one of the quietest editions of spring training in recent history, as the Nationals arrived in Viera with potentially only one roster spot available and one of the most impressive teams on paper in baseball.  While the most talented team does not always claim the championship at the end of the season, the Nationals enter this season in an outstanding position to make the playoffs. As Davey Johnson stated a few weeks back, this season is “World Series or Bust”.

Final 2013 Record:           Washington Nationals 92-70, 1^st Place National League East

BOLD Predictions… Nationals:

1)            Danny Espinosa out-homers fellow infielders Adam LaRoche and Ian Desmond this season, finishing with 24 home runs and a .268/.328/.435 batting line.

2)            Bryce Harper completely avoids the dreaded sophomore slump and posts a truly magical season with 34 home runs and a gold glove for his outfield defense.  Also, I predict Harper’s season numbers are more impressive than Mike Trout.

3)            Free Agent acquisition Dan Haren produces such an excellent season in Washington that he earns a Top-7 finish in the National League CY Young award.  Pitching deep into games and the Nationals strong lineup has the potential to earn him 17+ wins this year, which will merit attention from the voters next fall.

4)            The Nationals as a team have 5 players with more than 15 stolen bases (Desmond, Espinosa, Harper, Span, Werth) and 6 players with 15+ home runs (Desmond, Espinosa, Harper, LaRoche, Werth, Zimmerman)

5)            Davey Johnson is still the manager of the Washington Nationals on Opening Day 2014, deciding he is having too much fun to quit and thinks “I’m the best man for the job”.

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Predictions Around MLB

AL East:                 Tampa Bay Rays 91-71

While the loss of James Shields and Wade Davis will hurt the pitching staff, the emergence of starters Matt Moore and Alex Cobb and the midseason arrival of power hitter Wil Myers will allow the Rays to hold off the Yankees and Blue Jays in the AL East.

AL Central:          Detroit Tigers 93-69

Continued excellence from Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, along with the return of Victor Martinez from knee surgery and a breakout season from pitcher Rick Porcello spurs Detroit to a return trip to the playoffs.

AL West:              Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 91-71

Although this division is loaded with impressive teams, the combination of Mike Trout avoiding a sophomore slump, and a bounce back season from Albert Pujols, not to mention newly-signed outfielder Josh Hamilton will lead the Angels to claim this division in a tight race.

AL Wild Cards:  Texas Rangers 89-73, New York Yankees 89-73

Although Texas had largely a disappointing offseason after failing to acquire another top-of-the-rotation starter, the Rangers have too much talent on their roster and one last quality season from Lance Berkman will help them make the playoffs.  The Yankees enter the season off a spring training filled with injuries and more question marks on their roster than at any time I can remember, but they still have plenty of talent and a farm system ready to make a big trade, allowing them to eventually claim the last wild card position.

AL CY Young:     Yu Darvish RHP Texas Rangers
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I could not choose the obvious favorite, Detroit starter Justin Verlander, and I think Darvish improves on his impressive rookie season in 2013 by trimming his walk rate and pitching deeper into games, giving him a lower ERA and more wins.  These improvements along with his massive strikeout totals will help him capture the CY Young.

AL MVP:               Albert Pujols 1B Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

His statistics are trending downward leading most analysts to forecast the arrival of the decline phase of his career, but with Mike Trout batting leadoff and having the dangerous Josh Hamilton hitting behind him, I believe Pujols has a monster season coming for the Angels in 2013.

AL Rookie of the Year:   Jackie Bradley Jr. OF Boston Red Sox

Bradley arrived at spring training with little chance of making the team because of service time concerns and no space available on the big league roster, but a phenomenal .419 spring batting average forced his way onto the roster, where he is expected to form a platoon with Jonny Gomes in left field.  Bradley Jr. is a dynamic defensive outfielder and as the strong side of the platoon, stands an excellent chance of receiving 400+ at-bats this season in route to winning the rookie of the year award.

NL East:                Washington Nationals 92-70

General good health and a breakout season from Bryce Harper leads Washington to their 2^nd consecutive division championship.

NL Central:         St. Louis Cardinals 90-72

The loss of Kyle Lohse and a lengthy injury to Carlos Beltran is overcome by impressive seasons by Shelby Miller and Oscar Tavares to help the Cardinals narrowly win the division.

NL West:             San Francisco Giants 93-69

The Giants take advantage of weak division foes Colorado and San Diego and a breakout season from Brandon Belt to coast to their 2^nd straight NL West title and likely, the best overall record in the National League.

NL Wild Cards:  Atlanta Braves 89-73, Cincinnati 88-74

Not the more celebrated Upton brothers, but Freddie Freeman leads Atlanta in home runs in 2013 in establishing himself as one of the best young first baseman in baseball.  Cincinnati’s outstanding offense with Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and newly-acquired Shin-Soo Choo overcomes their defensive lapses in the outfield to help the Reds claim the final wild card this fall.

NL CY Young:     Madison Bumgarner LHP San Francisco Giants

23-years-old with a career 3.20 ERA in 84 starts, Bumgarner is just scratching the surface of his immense talent, and this season he becomes the ace of the Giants staff, leading San Francisco to another division title.

NL MVP:              Bryce Harper OF Washington Nationals

Is this far enough out on the limb for you… Yes I am predicting a monster season for Bryce which will conclude with an MVP award.  The best player on the best team in baseball seems like a good bet to win the award to me.

NL Rookie of the Year:  Jedd Gyorko Infield San Diego Padres

Choosing a hitter with a home park of Petco Park might seem foolish at first glance, but Gyorko is guaranteed plenty of at-bats this season as their starting second baseman and his offensive skills should outshine his potential liabilities defensively, allowing him to beat St. Louis outfielder Oscar Tavares and Atlanta Braves pitcher Julio Teheran for the award.

BOLD Predictions… MLB:

1)            Not only do the free-spending Los Angeles Dodgers miss the playoffs, but they will finish 3^rd in the NL West behind the surprising (and gritty) Arizona Diamondbacks.

2)            Albert Pujols joins legendary Frank Robinson (NL 1961, AL 1966) as the only player(s) to ever win the Most Valuable Player award in both leagues, as Pujols leads the Angels to a division title.

3)            Although not historically bad, the Houston Astros struggle this season with lack of talent and a trade deadline purge to finish 52-110 in 2013.

4)            Even lacking lineup protection, Marlins Giancarlo Stanton hits 41 home runs this season while bolstering the youthful Miami team to a 63-99 record.

5)            Spurred by an excellent season from Manny Machado and the late-season callup of Kevin Gausman, Baltimore finishes with an 84-78 record and narrowly misses a wild card berth.

What do you think?  I encourage everyone to leave your predictions in the comments section below…

Although difficult to wade through the college basketball talk and piles of NCAA brackets, opening day is quickly approaching, baseball fans, and this season is shaping up to be one of the finest in years.  Certainly part of that is the excitement of another successful season for the Nationals and a possible World Series appearance, but there are many other compelling storylines throughout baseball.

Building off my article last week discussing the many things I am excited about watching this season in regards to the Nationals, and to help build excitement for the upcoming season, I thought I should briefly mention a few of the many things I am excited to observe around baseball in 2013.

9)            MLB Draft

As an aspiring baseball scout, the three days of the MLB Draft are some of my favorite days of the year.  This year’s draft has some interesting storylines with Stanford pitcher Mark Appel returning for his senior season rather than signing with the Pittsburgh Pirates, who drafted him 8^th overall last June.  It will be fascinating to see where he is ultimately selected in the draft this summer.

In addition, it will be an intriguing to see how major league front offices adjust in the second year under the new collective bargaining agreement rules limiting the amount of money teams can spend on draft pick bonuses.

Finally, I am curious to see how the Nationals overcome their lack of a 1^st round pick, forfeited as compensation for signing Rafael Soriano this winter.  For the third consecutive year I will be live blogging all three days of the draft, so join me in June for this extravaganza.

8)            Trade Deadline

The July trade deadline always holds intrigue, as the rumors flying on various websites gets fans excited about the prospect of new players on their roster, and disappointment if their team decides to stand pat.  Last year for the first time in years, the Nationals were perceived buyers at the deadline, only to let the deadline pass and acquire catcher Kurt Suzuki a few days later.  Who knows what will happen this summer, but I eagerly anticipate the days leading up to the deadline, and breaking down each team’s transactions or lack thereof.

7)            Breakout Stars

Although sabermetricians have done outstanding work in recent years projecting future performance of players and teams, one of the best aspects of baseball is the unpredictable nature of the game itself.  Each year, a few players outperform even their most outlandish projections to produce magical seasons and often announce themselves as superstar quality players.

2012 saw breakout seasons from Anaheim CF Mike Trout, Oakland SP Jarrod Parker, San Diego 3B Chase Headley, and Washington SS Ian Desmond to name just a few.  While it is foolish to attempt to prognosticate such extraordinary and unlikely performances, my top choices to flourish in 2013 are Kansas City 1B Eric Hosmer, Tampa Bay OF Desmond Jennings, Toronto 3B Brett Lawrie, and Washington 2B Danny Espinosa.

6)            World Baseball Classic
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Although this tournament has already finished, I wanted to recognize this event as one of the best parts of this baseball season. I was somewhat skeptical of this tournament in the months leading up to this event but my opinion was quickly transformed after watching the passion of the players and fans and how much the quality of baseball around the world, especially in the supposed underdog countries, has improved from the last event.  There will be many articles written in the upcoming years on how to improve this event, but take these columns as acknowledgement that the baseball community understands the importance of this tournament.  Congrats to the Dominican Republic on an excellent win.

5)            Watching MLB Extra Innings Late Night

After watching Nationals games in the early evening, I look forward to turning to the baseball package to watch superstars on the west coast like Anaheim Angels hitters Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp and starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw, Oakland Athletics outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey and pitcher Tim Lincecum, and Seattle Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez and Beast Mode Mike Morse to name just a few.

4)            The American League East

So many wonderful and intriguing storylines exist in the AL East this year.   How do the many new pieces in Toronto fit together and do they have enough talent to make the playoffs for the first time in twenty years.  Does Baltimore replicate their success from last year in 1-run games and approximate their 93-69 record.  Can Tampa Bay overcome the loss of pitchers Wade Davis and James Shields and return to the playoffs.  Will the age of the Yankees roster catch up to them this season, or do Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera have one last World Series run left in them. Finally, how will the Red Sox respond after the major trade last summer and the numerous free agent signings this winter.  I am excited to see how each of these teams reacts to their given circumstances this season and who eventually wins the dogfight to claim the division title.

3)            Houston Astros

Many baseball analysts are predicting a historically bad season for the Astros in 2013, and on paper, their roster looks much worse than some of the shabby teams the Nationals fielded just a few seasons ago.  However, I am a big believer in former Nationals third base coach Bo Porter, and I think Houston has hired some of the most impressive baseball people in general manager Jeff Luhnow and executives Kevin Goldstein and Mike Fast to name a few.  This season will be a struggle at the major league level, especially as they shift to the more difficult American League West, but I will watch with a keen eye as the Astros shrewd front office continues to implement their long-term organizational plan to rebuild through scouting and development.

2)            Emergence of Young Players

Major league baseball is going through a prosperous time in terms of emerging young talent, with talented under 25-year-old players such as Atlanta Braves outfielder Jason Heyward, Miami Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, Tampa Bay Rays southpaw Matt Moore and outfielder Wil Myers, and Washington Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg, not to mention the 22-and-under rising stars such as Baltimore pitcher Dylan Bundy and third baseman Manny Machado, Chicago Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro, and Texas Rangers infielder Jurickson Profar.   I am excited to watch the continued development of these young superstars all season.

1)            Mike Trout and Bryce Harper

These two rising stars will be interminably linked throughout their careers and it will be fascinating to watch both of their careers progress.  Perhaps the most interesting year for each player will be this season, as Trout is coming off the most impressive baseball season since Barry Bonds in 2004 and Harper arguably the best season for a 19-year-old hitter in baseball history.  Expectations have increased significantly and both teams’ World Series aspirations will only happen with monster seasons from both of them.  I expect both of them to exceed all expectations and post jaw-dropping numbers leading both teams to the playoffs next fall.