After a somewhat sluggish start to the season, the Nationals have turned things around, winning eight of their last twelve games and are amidst a 10-game west coast road trip to challenge the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants before returning home late next week.  The Nationals took the first game of their three game series against the Dodgers Monday evening, but faced an extremely difficult task Tuesday evening as the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw, the 2011 NL Cy Young award winner and 2012 runner-up, was taking the mound for Los Angeles.   

To digress a bit, initially I intended for this piece to be an examination of how Kershaw would pitch Bryce Harper, as the precocious phenoms have never faced each other in a major league game.  Unfortunately Harper had a gruesome collision with the right field wall during Monday’s game, so manager Davey Johnson gave him a day off to recover.  This caused a slight audible to my plan.

Nevertheless, considering Kershaw is possibly the best pitcher in the National League, and certainly one of the best five starting pitchers in baseball, I did not want to miss the opportunity to scrutinize his start against the Nationals and observe how he would attack the struggling Nationals lineup, which has scored only 41 runs in their first 11 games this month.    

****

Despite struggling in the first inning, facing six batters and throwing 29 total pitches, Kershaw escaped the first inning without allowing a run, then proceeded to overwhelm the Nationals in route to pitching 8.2 shutout innings, before giving way to the bullpen for the save.  For the evening, Kershaw allowed no runs on 5 hits (only 3 after the 1^st inning) and 1 walk against 11 strikeouts.  In short, Kershaw completely dominated an at times overmatched Nationals lineup. 

Due to his difficult 29-pitch first inning, Kershaw was forced to throw 132 total pitches in Tuesday night’s 8.2 inning effort against the Nationals, of which 96 were strikes against only 36 balls.  By my numbers, I had Kershaw throwing 72 total fastballs (54.5%), 35 sliders (26.5%), 21 curveballs (15.9%), and only 4 changeups (3.1%).  His fastball velocity was quite impressive, averaging 93.67mph for the evening and topping out at 95.48mph, which in addition to his impressive fastball command, allowed him to throw first-pitch strikes to 22 of 32 Nationals hitters (68.75%). (Thanks BrooksBaseball.net)  Finally, Kershaw induced 18 pure swings-and-misses, an incredible 13.6% of his pitches, and in particular, drew 7 whiffs on his 21 curveballs thrown.  Kershaw consistently got ahead of the hitters then baffled them with his devastating off-speed stuff.

The Nationals lineup Tuesday evening was not at full strength with the injuries to Harper and Jayson Werth, and an off-day for Denard Span.  To counteract the tough left-handed pitching Kershaw and help improve their chances for success, Davey Johnson featured a heavy right-handed hitting lineup with only one left-handed batter, Adam LaRoche.  Unfortunately even trying to exploit a potential platoon advantage against the lefty, Kershaw’s results and success highlights the problems currently hindering the Nationals lineup – Too few walks and baserunners combined with far too many strikeouts causing the lineup not to score runs. 

For the season the Nationals are currently 22^nd in total walks, 6^th in total strikeouts, 28^th in team on-base percentage at .292, and 28^th in OPS (On-Base Plus Slugging) at .661.  In just the month of May, the Nationals have scored 41 runs in 12 games, with 6 home runs (Last in MLB), 32 walks (21^st in MLB), 110 strikeouts (6^th in MLB), a .283 OBP (28^th in MLB), and a .605 OPS (Last in MLB and .15 behind the lowly Houston Astros).  This is in contrast with the Nationals statistics from last season, when they finished 17^th in walks, 4^th in strikeouts, 12^th in OBP, and 8^th in OPS.  The Nationals have a winning record, 8-4 in May, because the pitching staff has the best ERA in baseball and has allowed the fewest number of runs this month.

While the Nationals are built around their excellent starting pitching and deep bullpen, the team will not reach the success everyone expects from them if their lineup does not show notable improvements at the plate going forward.  Naturally these numbers should rally when Harper and Werth return to the lineup and Ryan Zimmerman and LaRoche’s statistics begin to resemble their career averages.  However, if the Nationals continue to fail to get runners on base, and avoid making quality contact, the team will struggle to return to the playoffs this season. 

Last Tuesday evening I was fortunate enough to appear on the Ball Hogs Radio Podcast to discuss some of the early trends with the Washington Nationals so far this season.  During the interview one of the hosts asked me about Stephen Strasburg and why he has struggled thus far in 2013.  I quickly pointed out that aside from the win-loss record, most of his statistics are still consistent with last season and things should correct themselves in short order.  Then the conversation quickly shifted to the value, or lack thereof, of the wins statistic.

Satisfied with my answer and confident his win total will improve in the coming weeks, I still began to ponder the question a bit deeper –  although his numbers are still impressive, why does Strasburg lack the aura of an Ace thus far in 2013.  With this question in mind, I decided to analyze Strasburg’s start Saturday afternoon at home against the Chicago Cubs to scrutinize one of the most talented starting pitchers in baseball and observe his overall development now 53 starts into his career.

****

Saturday’s start was truly one of the more uneven outings you will ever witness, as Strasburg dominated the mediocre Cubs lineup through the first four innings, allowing only one hit and no walks against seven strikeouts while throwing only 53 pitches.  Strasburg threw first-pitch strikes to 10 of the first 13 batters he faced, often with his fastball which he was commanding well, then putting them on the defensive as he overwhelmed them with his curveball and changeup.  Quite simply, Strasburg had no-hit quality stuff through the 4^th inning. 

However, in the 5^th inning everything changed as Strasburg retired the first two batters before a Ryan Zimmerman throwing error unnerved the young pitcher.  After the error, Strasburg labored the rest of the inning, throwing 42 pitches and allowing four runs on four hits and two walks before being lifted for a pinch hitter in the bottom of the inning.  His final statistics on Saturday consisted of five innings pitched, allowing four unearned runs due to the error, five hits and two walks against seven strikeouts.

Overall, Strasburg threw 95 pitches, 64 strikes and 31 balls, and by my numbers, he threw 62 fastballs (65.3%), 19 curveballs (20%), and 14 changeups (14.7%).  In addition, Strasburg threw first-pitch strikes to 15 of the 21 batters he faced, induced nine pure swings-and-misses (9.5%) from Chicago hitters, and forced four groundball outs against only two fly outs for the game.  Strasburg’s velocity was also impressive, as he averaged 97.18mph on his four-seam fastball, topping out at 99.92mph, up from a 2013 season average of 96.39mph. (Thanks BrooksBaseball.net)

This start perfectly encompasses both the current strengths and weaknesses of Stephen Strasburg at this still relatively early point in his career.  When he is in rhythm as we saw through the first four innings, there might not be a more dominating starting pitcher than Stephen Strasburg, with his powerful high-90s fastball, nasty curveball, demoralizing changeup, and ability to throw all three pitches consistently for strikes. 

On the other hand, before we can properly label him an Ace, he needs to do a better job keeping his composure and picking up his defense behind him, as he has already allowed 8 unearned runs thus far in 2013.  For comparisons sake, the entire rest of the Nationals pitching staff has allowed 11 unearned runs all season.  Some of these results can be attributed to bad luck and should normalize during the rest of the season, but his inability to minimize difficult situations is something he needs to improve as he matures.

Finally, thus far in his relatively short career, Strasburg has never thrown a pitch in the 8^th inning or later of a ballgame, a glaring weakness on his resume after 53 career major league starts.  Some of this is explainable because of the cautious way the Nationals have handled Strasburg so far, but his inability to limit his pitch count and pitch deeper into games is perhaps his final obstacle to becoming a truly elite, Ace-caliber starter. 

For the time being, we must remember Strasburg is still 24-years-old, with only 300.2 total innings of major league experience, and is still developing as a pitcher.  Considering his electric, jaw-dropping stuff, notable college pedigree including being the #1 pick in the MLB draft, and rapid rise through the minor leagues, everyone assumed Strasburg would be an Ace in the majors from day one.  As of today however, we should recognize that at this point in his career, Strasburg more accurately resembles an elite #2 starting pitcher, with the potential to dominate like an Ace and throw a no-hitter each time he takes the mound.  

St. John’s HS SS Errol Robinson 4/27/13

With the Major League Baseball draft now less than one month away, scouts and front office executives are scouring the country attempting to watch as many high school and college players as possible to prepare for draft day. 

Although the topics of discussion on this site focuses primarily on the Nationals organization and professional baseball, my inner scout will always dedicate plenty of space to dissecting the draft.  In the weeks leading up to the June 6-8 draft, I will highlight well-known prospects and give you my scouting breakdown of their potential as a professional.  This week I discuss promising prospect and local product, St. John’s College High School shortstop Errol Robinson. 

****

Errol Robinson INF St. John’s College High School Washington D.C.

Number of Times Scouted – 4/27/13 vs. Good Counsel HS; three other times in the past

7-Word Scouting Report: Fast, athletic middle infielder with professional potential

A very impressive athlete with some physical projection remaining, Robinson possesses excellent foot speed, talent at the plate, and solid defensive ability, which combine to make him an intriguing local prospect for the 2013 draft.  His body type and frame remind me of former Montreal Expos and Baltimore Orioles second baseman Delino DeShields.

His pure speed is notable, as I have clocked him as fast as 4.14 seconds to first base, giving him above-average to plus speed as a right-handed hitter.  At the plate, he shows quick wrists, good bat speed with a fairly compact swing, and a good approach at the plate.  Likely he will not produce much power with a wood bat in the future, but his swing is conducive to plenty of doubles in the left-field and right-field gaps as he capitalizes on his speed. 

Defensively I have not watched him enough to properly evaluate him, but my initial impression is that he has solid range at shortstop, good instincts and leadership qualities for the position, and soft hands, but perhaps not quite the rifle-like arm teams covet at shortstop.  Because of this, I assume as a professional he will move either to second base, or perhaps center field to take advantage of his excellent athleticism.

I have read reports that Robinson has a strong commitment to the University of Mississippi, where his parents attended and his sister is a current student.  His desire to attend school might cause him to slip down draft boards next month, but judging him based solely on his talent on the baseball diamond, he deserves to be drafted in the Top-5 rounds, and could be selected higher if an organization believes he can play shortstop professionally. 

Robinson is a special high school prospect, especially for the Mid-Atlantic region, and if you have the opportunity to watch him in the next few weeks, I highly encourage you to get out to a St. John’s game and enjoy watching this potential future major leaguer.

Projected Draft Position ->         Late 2^nd Round through Round 3

Recently a friend of mine casually asked me how difficult it was to scalp a ticket to a Nationals home game – my off-the-cuff answer was “a lot more difficult than it was a few years ago, but still not terribly tough with a few dollars in your pocket”.  My response was more than enough encouragement for him to head down to the ballpark, but the brief conversation got me thinking a bit further: How has the Nationals success the past few seasons affected demand, and thus prices, for their tickets.

I reached out to my friends at TiqIQ, an online ticket agency, and asked them if they might be generous enough to share some of their Nationals data.  Luckily, they are readers of NatsGM, and were kind enough to send me the following information on Nationals tickets.

TiqIQ Washington Nationals April Ticket Information

• 2013 April Avg. Price: $37
• 2012 April Avg. Price: $39
• 2011 April Avg. Price: $31

SPAM is now almost an epidemic problem for anyone wishing to augment their marketing browse now generico viagra on line programs. Along with the treatments we have cialis super viagra mentioned, you will find that medications are winning the race. Beneath you’ll discover several of the important functions and updates of Africa Society Overview of Kenya New Constitution and Election Update-February 26, 2013 Source: U.S. buy sildenafil without prescription You ought to view and see additional info about these pills and at the same time make out how vigaplus enhances man libido in robertrobb.com generic cialis online addition to some other man.

Most Expensive Games (Avg. Price/Get-in Price): 

• 4/13 vs. Atlanta: $103/$41
• 4/1 vs. Marlins: $92/$27
• 4/14 vs. Atlanta: $62/$16

Least Expensive Games (Avg. Price/Get-in Price):

• 4/4 vs. Marlins: $21/$3
• 4/10 vs. White Sox $23/$2
• 4/11 vs. White Sox $24/$3

While the Nationals ticket prices rose significantly (and not surprisingly) from 2011 to 2012 ($31 to $39), I am stunned to see the average price of a ticket had dropped from 2012 to 2013 ($39 to $37).  These April Nationals ticket prices are 5% less than 2012 and only 19% more expensive than 2011.  Certainly the weather was mediocre last month and the Marlins for Opening Day and the first series are not much of a draw, but considering the hype surrounding this season and visits from Atlanta and St. Louis, I am shocked that ticket prices were cheaper year over year for the Nationals in April. 

Secondly, I was amazed to see that Opening Day was not the most difficult or expensive ticket for the Nationals in April, as that honor went to the nationally televised Saturday afternoon game against the Braves.  While the beautiful Saturday weather and the burgeoning rivalry between Atlanta and Washington should understandably draw a sizable crowd, Opening Day holds a special place in each baseball fan’s heart and with passable April weather that Monday afternoon, I am a bit surprised this was not the most prized Nationals ticket in April and frankly, for the entire regular season.

Finally, I was expecting the average ticket price to be higher than $37, as TiqIQ like most ticket brokers focus on selling more expensive tickets.  In a separate conversation I asked them if this was consistent with prices the rest of the season, which they shared was not a trend, as the team’s overall average ticket price is $65, up 55% from 2012.  Therefore, as the weather improves and kids no longer have school, prices will get more expensive.  This is more consistent with my expectations in general, although considering the big appeal of Opening Day, the Atlanta Braves, and St. Louis, I am surprised ticket prices were so much less expensive in April compared with the rest of the season.

So the grand lessons to be learned from this – attend Nationals games in April and look to buy tickets early in the season for the best values. 

Tip of the Fedora to TiqIQ for sharing their information with me – If you are looking for Nationals tickets this season, give these friends of NatsGM a chance to fill your ticket needs.