Hooray… MLB Draft week has finally arrived!  While the day pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training and Opening Day are bigger highlights on the baseball calendar, no other time of year gets me more excited than draft week. Certainly much of this comes from my inner desire to be a baseball scout, but as we have witnessed over the past 5-10 years, the organizations that happen to draft the best, like San Francisco, St. Louis, and Washington, tend to also have success at the major league level.

In my annual NatsGM MLB Draft Preview pieces this year (sponsorship opportunities available), I have tried to highlight a few of the players that should be drafted early on Day 1 of the draft.  This is primarily because the Nationals forfeited their 1^st round selection by choosing to sign reliever Rafael Soriano this off-season, and attempting to pinpoint the Nationals possible selections at selection #68 is quite difficult.  Of course this will not stop me from trying to do so later this week.

Below are a few scouting reports on some of the bigger names in the 2013 Draft.  Obviously there are plenty of 1^st round prospects I have omitted that will be selected on Thursday, but I have only chosen to write about players I have seen multiple times over their careers and can properly give a somewhat educated opinion.

Hitters

Kris Bryant                         3B University of San Diego

A polished high floor collegiate bat, Kris Bryant has some of the best power in the draft.  A massive kid with room to add strength, Bryant likely will move to right field professionally, where his strong arm, good instincts, and decent athleticism should let him be a solid fielder.  But make no mistake, the team that drafts Bryant is expecting most of his value from his bat, which could settle in as a .280 hitter with 30-35 home runs, albeit with plenty of strikeouts as well.  Bryant is a very solid prospect who could reach the majors quickly, and is likely to be chosen in the Top-5.

Colin Moran                     3B University of North Carolina

A proven college hitter with a strong track record of success at North Carolina and last summer in Cape Cod, Moran has one of the best swings in this draft, with a strong hit tool and some power.  On defense, Moran has a strong arm and reasonable athleticism, meaning he should be able to stay at third base as a professional.  The only below-average skill he might have is below-average speed, but his relatively high floor, combined with his potential to hit .300 with 15-20 home runs at his peak should find him off the board in the Top-10. 

Austin Meadows             OF Georgia HS

What an athlete!  Imagine the ideal high school baseball athlete and there is an excellent chance he looks like Austin Meadows.  Meadows is a big kid with outstanding speed and enough arm strength to stay in center field professionally.  With a quick, compact left-handed swing and a feel for the strike zone, scouts do not question his hit tool much, pretty surprising for a high school kid; however, some scouts question if he will grow into his power as he ages, as he is already fairly physically mature.  That said, Meadows has the potential to be an asset defensively in center and slightly above-average offensively at his peak, which gives him an all-star ceiling if things come together.  I really like this young prospect.

Clint Frazier                       OF Georgia HS

A member of the same travel team as Meadows and nearly neighbors in nearby Georgia towns, Frazier and Meadows have spent most of the past two years jockeying for position as the top high school hitter in this year’s draft.  Though both Georgia high school outfielders, this is about where the comparisons end, as Frazier is nearly physically mature as seen by his thick, powerful, almost amateur wrestler-like frame.  Frazier has good speed and a decent arm, but most scouts assume he will eventually end up in left field, though likely as an asset defensively.

But teams are not necessarily interested in Frazier for his speed or defense, they are enamored with his jaw-dropping bat speed and the power he generates with his wrists.  Even a complete baseball novice would notice how quickly Frazier can swing a bat.  Although Frazier is still a high school outfielder, his short, compact swing should allow him to move fairly quickly through a farm system.  Frazier has rare bat speed and the potential to hit for 30+ home runs at his peak, and he should be off the board in the first 7-10 picks on Thursday. 

Austin Wilson                   OF Stanford University

A top high school hitter in the 2010 draft, Wilson had a known strong college commitment to Stanford, which explains why he fell to St. Louis in the 12^th round.  Based on talent, he likely would have been taken in the top-20.  Nevertheless, Wilson attended college and three years later scouts see much of the same talent, a massively built man with the athleticism and arm to play right field well as a professional, and the raw power to hit 25+ home runs a year.  Wilson does have questions about his hitting, as his swing is not particularly polished for a college hitter, which causes him to strike out far too often.  Scouts fear this could hold him back as he faces better quality pitching, but with the dearth of power in professional baseball today and few questions about his future defensive position, expect Wilson to be taken Thursday evening, possibly in the first 20 selections.   

My Favorites

While neither of these players are unknown to scouts and college baseball enthusiasts, the two players below are prospects that I particularly like. 

Michael Lorenzen            OF/RHP Cal State Fullerton

Many scouts prefer Lorenzen as a pitcher, as he has acted as his team’s closer the past two seasons and can reach 97mph off the mound, however, his above-average speed, solid instincts, and powerful, cannon-like throwing arm make him an outstanding potential center fielder with a bit more polish.  In addition, Lorenzen has average or slightly better power and a reasonably quick swing.  However, his swing needs plenty of refinement and he strikes out far too often, leading many scouts to question if he will make enough contact to allow his other skills to shine.

If he can make a few adjustments at the plate (IF), Lorenzen is a potential gold-glove centerfielder with some pop – think a poor man’s Mike Cameron.  If the scouts are correct and the contact issues are too much to overcome, it should not take much to convert him to a power reliever, and an asset to most any bullpen.  He will probably be drafted later on Thursday in the supplemental 1^st round or the early 2^nd round, and I think the team that pulls the trigger will look very smart in a few years. 

Hunter Renfroe                 OF Mississippi State University

A star for the Bethesda Big Train of the local Cal Ripken summer league the past two summers, there is no college player I have watched more closely than Hunter Renfroe, and I am convinced he is going to be a solid to excellent major leaguer.  He began the year as a 2^nd-4^th round pick according to scouts, but with a breakout junior season combined with the dearth of college hitters in this year’s draft, Renfroe is now comfortably mentioned as a 1^st day draft pick.

A strong, physical athlete with good speed and a strong arm, Renfroe has played many positions the past few years, as I have seen him at catcher and all three outfield positions, but he should comfortably slot in right field as a professional.  While he should be an asset defensively, teams will be drafting Renfroe for his relatively short, compact swing, fast bat speed, solid approach at the plate, and potential to be a .275 hitter with 20-30 home run power in his prime.  Personally I would develop Renfroe as a catcher, as his agility and arm strength made him a very interesting catching prospect  and his potential as a hitter could make him an all-star in a few years.  That said expect him to immediately move to the outfield in order to expedite the development process and get his bat to the big leagues.  Either way, Renfroe is an outstanding hitter, an even better young man, and one of my favorite hitters in this year’s class.

Nathan Karns 1st MLB Pitch. 5/28/13

As if he needed any more pressure in his major league debut, Nathan Karns was put in the difficult position of attempting to slow down the surging Baltimore Orioles lineup in game 2 of the Battle of the Beltway series Tuesday evening at Nationals Park.  The 2012 Nationals Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Karns pitched well through the first three innings, only allowing one run and three hits.  In the 4^th inning, Karns began to scuffle, allowing solo home runs to Chris Davis and J.J. Hardy, and was only able to retire one hitter in the 5^th inning before tiring and giving way to the Nationals bullpen.

As should be expected from a pitcher with less than 225 professional innings and none above the Double-A level, Karns performance Tuesday night was rather uneven, pitching 4.1 innings against the powerful Orioles lineup, allowing three runs on five hits, two walks, two home runs and three strikeouts.  Karns threw 85 pitches in his debut, 50 for strikes (58.8%) and 35 balls, consisting of 63 fastballs, 16 curveballs, and 6 changeups.  His average fastball velocity was 94.70mph, topping out at 97.36mph, and he struggled with his fastball command, throwing only 39 of 63 for strikes (61.9%).  This hindered his ability to get ahead of hitters, as Karns threw 1^st pitch strikes to only 11 of 20 hitters (55%) he faced.  (Thanks BrooksBaseball.net)

Karns did induce six groundball outs against only one fly ball out, and produced seven pure swings-and-misses (8.2%) from the Orioles hitters, solid numbers and signs his stuff is major league quality.  Also worth noting from his start is Karns did not throw one curveball to a left-handed hitter, and did not throw a changeup to a right-handed batter: while this does make sense on the surface, major league hitters are exceptionally smart and will pick up on this trend.  Karns needs to refine his changeup so he can be more effective against left-handed hitters in the future, and he must develop more confidence to at least show the hitters a third option to keep them off-balance and not guessing between only two pitches. 

While the final statistical line does not look particularly appealing, Nationals fans should be proud of the effort Nathan Karns gave them last night in overcoming a rain delay and typical rookie nerves to pitch well enough for the team to win.  Because the effort involved in his delivery and his below-average changeup will cause him to struggle against left-handed hitters, Karns career will probably be relegated to the bullpen.  However, with two dominating pitches in his mid-90s fastball and mid-80s curveball, along with his sturdy, powerful frame, Karns could find himself a valuable 75-90 inning reliever annually in the mold of fellow National Craig Stammen.

This is an increasingly valuable pitcher as bullpens become even more rigid in their roles and usage, and Karns should be a valuable member of the Nationals pitching staff later this season and for years to come.  Kudos to the Nationals organization for developing this former 12^th round pick into a potentially valuable member of the pitching staff.

After months of anticipation Thursday the Baltimore Orioles promoted pitching prospect Kevin Gausman to start against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre.  Gausman, the Orioles 1^st Round pick, 4^th overall in the 2012 MLB Draft, was drafted out of Louisiana State as a polished collegiate pitcher with the potential to move relatively quickly through the minor leagues due to his mature approach and three pitch arsenal.  Gausman features a powerful, electric mid-90s fastball that can reach nearly 100mph, an exceptional swing-and-miss changeup, and an improving slider, along with excellent control and command of the strike zone.

Since signing his professional contract, Gausman has done little to disappoint, only needing 61.1 innings of minor league experience before the Orioles decided to promote him to Baltimore.  This season in 8 starts at Double-A Bowie, Gausman has a 3.11 ERA, 1.058 WHIP, 44 hits allowed in 46.1 innings pitched, and a remarkable 49 to 5 K/BB (strikeout to walk) ratio.

I first watched Gausman in the 2009 AFLAC high school All-American game, and have been eagerly anticipating his major league debut since he was drafted last summer and figured his debut would be a perfect subject for the latest installment of the soon to be quasi-famous Armchair Evaluation. 

****

Kevin Gausman battled through a rather uneven debut Thursday evening against Toronto, pitching a total five innings, allowing four runs on seven hits and two walks against five strikeouts.  Through the first three innings, Gausman shut down the Toronto lineup, giving up only two hits and a walk, against three strikeouts in route to nearly crashing Twitter in the local Baltimore area. 

Unfortunately once he reached the 4^th inning, and went through the batting order a second time, Gausman began to struggle as the Blue Jays attempted to attack earlier in the count, not allowing him to get ahead with the fastball and forcing them into defensive 2-strike counts.  Using this strategy Toronto scored two runs in the 4^th and two in the 5^th on a 2-run home run by J.P. Arencibia before his night was complete. 

Gausman threw a total of 89 pitches, 58 for strikes and 31 for balls, to get through his five innings pitched.  By my count, he threw 63 fastballs (70.7%) averaging 97.26mph topping out at 99.45mph, eight curveballs (9%), only three sliders (3.4%), and a total of 15 changeups (16.9%).  Gausman did a nice job getting ahead of the hitters, throwing 1^st pitch strikes to 16 of the 24 hitters he faced (66.7%), and inducing seven pure swing-and-misses from the Blue Jays (7.9%), more than proving his repertoire is major league ready.  (Thanks BrooksBaseball.net)

While his final statistical numbers may not show it, Gausman’s start Thursday night should be considered a success, as he flashed two well above-average pitches in his fastball and changeup, a quiet and fairly polished throwing motion, and a mature approach attacking hitters.  Gausman showed good control of the strike zone early in the count, locating his electric fastball, and setting hitters up for his devastating changeup, especially through his first three innings. 

Like most young pitchers, once Toronto started timing his fastball and having a second and third look at his arsenal, Gausman failed to adjust and to throw his breaking pitches in the strike zone, getting only four of his eleven off-speed pitches thrown for strikes.  Gausman’s proficiency with his breaking pitches has always lagged his fastball and changeup, and he will need to improve his ability to throw them for strikes in the majors or he will struggle, especially against right-handed hitters.   

While the 22-year-old Gausman could still benefit from some additional experience in the minor leagues to refine his off-speed stuff and further polish his skills, Orioles fans must be excited watching him pitch in Baltimore through most of the rest of this decade.  At present, with two above-average offerings and command of the stuff, Gausman profiles as a solid #3-#4 starting pitcher.  However, if he continues to improve throwing his curveball and slider, Gausman has a legitimate chance to become an excellent #2 starter in a few years, with a chance to evolve into the rare Ace.   

Thursday afternoon I took advantage of the lovely weather and drove up to Frederick to scout the Keys against the Potomac Nationals, the High-A affiliates of the Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals.  It was “getaway” day for both teams but due to there being several busloads of kids enjoying a day away from school, the stands were fairly crowded for a late morning midweek game.  Fortunately a friend and I were still able to buy front row seats behind home plate and were treated to a solid day of baseball.

Wednesday night’s rainout proved fortunate as I was able to watch one of the Nationals top pitching prospects, right-handed starter A.J. Cole, the prize of the offseason Mike Morse trade to Seattle, start for Potomac.  Here are my scouting notes from a game featuring a check-swing appeal of a left-handed hitter to the first base umpire, a first for me and the result of a 2-man umpiring crew, and a stadium radar gun more inconsistent than a minor league hot dog.

****

A.J. Cole SP Potomac Nationals

7-Word Scouting Report: Still Raw Prospect with Mid-Rotation Starter Ceiling

One of the top pitching prospects in the Nationals farm system, A.J. Cole physically looks like the ideal starting pitcher with a tall, lean, athletic body frame and room to add another 15-30 pounds in the future.  His repertoire Thursday possessed a lively but occasionally flat 86-92mph fastball which topped out at 111mph (remember shady radar gun), an 80-84mph breaking ball with both curveball and slider characteristics, and the very occasional 77-79mph changeup.  Cole flashed his enormous potential at times striking out 5 hitters and dominating the Frederick lineup, yet also showed why he is still in A-ball allowing 7 hits, 5 runs, and 3 walks in his 5 innings pitched.

Cole has a pretty solid, clean delivery from the windup, though his arm seems to lag behind his body, which highlights his impressive arm speed but often also makes it difficult to repeat his arm slot.  This weakness makes it difficult to control the strike zone, and at times, flattens his fastball.  At times he also struggled from the stretch, as his slow delivery allowed an easy stolen base in the 4^th inning, and I noticed his stuff suffered as well.  He also needs to work on his conditioning, as he tired quickly in the 6^th inning, allowing a leadoff walk and two consecutive doubles before exiting the game.  Cole needs to improve these weaknesses as he continues up the organizational ladder.

Before thinking this will be completely negative critique of his performance, Cole struck out five hitters, induced plenty of swings-and-misses on his fastball and slurve, and dominated the opposition through the first 3 innings.  Weaknesses aside, Cole is only 21-years-old and holding his own at High-A with a K/9 ratio of 9.43 and a WHIP of 1.33, so if given time to physically mature and gain experience on the mound, there is no reason he cannot develop into a mid-rotation starter in a couple years. 

Tim Berry SP Frederick Keys

7-Word Scouting Report:  An Overlooked Lefty, More Than A Guy  

A former 50^th round pick for the Orioles in 2009, Berry has slowly moved up the organizational ladder while making a name for himself as a prospect, ranking as Baltimore’s #11 prospect in 2012 according to Baseball America.  A left-handed pitcher with three solid offerings, Berry featured a lively 86-89mph fastball that he located well in the strike zone, a good but inconsistent 74-76mph curveball, and a 80-83mph changeup with good arm side movement and sink. 

Berry has a clean, quiet, and relatively compact delivery along with a tall, slender frame especially in his legs, leading me to believe he could pick up a bit more velocity as he matures physically.  Only 22-years-old and showing success in High-A this season, Berry has future major league potential as a #5 starter or quality left-handed relief pitcher.  Berry should be a popular name in trade talks this summer if the Orioles try to bolster their team at the trade deadline. 

Others of Note…

Michael Taylor earns my vote for “Most Frustrating Nats Prospect”, as his athleticism and speed give him the skills necessary to play center field defensively in the big leagues, but his difficulties with the bat continue to stifle his development.  He had a hard hit double in the 4^th inning in which he flashed his quick bat speed, yet struggled in other at-bats and was thrown out twice running the bases.  His talent is obvious, but he still needs plenty of polish and at 22-years-old, needs to start moving up the organizational ladder.

Christian Walker did not have his best day at the plate Thursday, going 0-5 with 4 strikeouts and 5 men left on base, and showed a weakness for high fastballs like I do blondes, chasing them three separate times for strikeouts.  That said he seemed to have a mature approach at the plate, tough to believe after four punch outs, and his right-handed swing looked compact and reasonably quick.  Limited to first base defensively, Walker will have to be a monster offensively to eventually reach the majors, but he might just have enough thunder in the bat to eventually reach Baltimore.

Brenden Webb is one of the many reasons I love watching and scouting minor league baseball; I entered the park today barely more aware of him than his name, but I left Harry Grove stadium thinking I may have spotted an overlooked prospect in the Baltimore system.  A solidly built right fielder with some room to fill out, Webb showed a quick, compact left-handed swing and flashed some excellent power to the opposite field on a wind-hindered home run in the 4^th inning off an A.J. Cole fastball. 

Later in the game, he showed a strong and accurate throwing arm, gunning Michael Taylor out trying to go to third base on a potential sacrifice fly.  I am excited to watch him more this summer and think he deserves more attention than he might be currently receiving around baseball.  Sleeper Alert

Rob Wort made a relief appearance in the bottom of the 8^th and caught my eye with his quick pitching arm, and lively fastball that was clocked at 88-91 on the stadium radar gun.  Recently off the disabled list, I only saw him throw 2 sliders in his one inning, in which he allowed a walk, a hit, and a run along with two strikeouts.  His delivery looks like a better fit for a reliever, but Wort is a name to remember as a relief prospect for the Nationals in the future.