In somewhat interesting timing during this challenging season, the Washington Nationals on Monday acquired left-handed hitting outfielder David DeJesus from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for a Player To Be Named Later.  In related news, in order to open a spot on the Washington’s 40-man roster for DeJesus, the Nationals announced Monday afternoon they had released struggling outfielder Roger Bernadina.  This marks the second trade between the teams this summer, as the Nationals sent minor league pitcher Ivan Pineyro to Chicago in exchange for outfielder Scott Hairston earlier in June.

DeJesus has struggled with a shoulder injury this season which has limited him to only 84 games played, and has caused his numbers at the plate to suffer, batting only .250/.330/.401 in 2013.  For his career, the 33-year-old DeJesus is a .279/.354/.417 hitter, who is generally regarded as a quality base runner and capable of playing all three outfield positions.  Defensively, DeJesus has the reputation as an above-average defender in both left and right field, but below-average in center field.  The 11-year veteran is owed about $1 million in salary through the rest of this season, and has a team option for 2014 worth $6.5 million with a $1.5 million dollar contract buyout. 

DeJesus’ arrival forced the Nationals to part with long-time organization member and popular player Roger Bernadina.  Formerly the longest tenured player in the Nationals organization, Bernadina signed with Montreal back in 2001 and was a fan favorite who developed the moniker The Shark or Sharkadina. 

After a terrific season in a reserve role in 2012, Bernadina never found his groove and struggled this season, hitting only .178/.247/.270 in 2013.  A talented but maddeningly inconsistent player with obvious skills, the 29-year-old Bernadina could benefit from a change of scenery, which should happen quickly once he clears waivers.  Bernadina is a major league quality player but unfortunately his inability to make consistent contact limits his ceiling to a reserve outfielder.

Rumors have surfaced since the trade occurred Monday that the Player To Be Named Later in this trade will actually consist of a small sum of money, making this move more accurately resemble a waiver claim.  Assuming these reports are correct, it is difficult to find fault in this move for the Nationals, who find a sizable upgrade from Bernadina to improve their woeful bench the rest of this season and acquire an asset going forward: a league-average, consistent left-handed hitting outfielder under contract for 2014 for $6.5 million dollars.

Considering the expectation of rich spending in the free agent market this offseason and the current dearth of quality all-around outfielders across baseball, DeJesus represents excellent, but expensive depth for the Nationals bench in 2014 or a viable trade candidate going forward.   Either way, DeJesus makes the Nationals a better team both today and in the future, as he is a more complete player compared to Bernadina. 

Some will criticize this move as “too little too late”, but credit general manager Mike Rizzo for continuing to try and improve the roster, while also shrewdly acquiring a potential future asset for a relatively negligible cost.  This trade benefits the organization both in the short-term and the long-term, making it one of my favorite Nationals moves in recent memory.

NatsGM Grade           ->            A- / B+

Saber Seminar 2013

This past weekend I was fortunate enough to fly to Boston to attend the 2013 Saber Seminar held at the Boston University Science Center, with all proceeds going to the Jimmy Fund.  As some of my readership knows, I lost my mother to cancer last year, so any opportunity to discuss baseball and fighting this tragic disease is a perfect combination.

The incredible list of presenters and their considerable knowledge awed me at times, as their casual use of terms like r-coefficients resembled baseball scouts tossing around jargon like approach or want.  That said I was proud and humbled to be around such intelligent baseball people and tried to soak up as much knowledge as I possibly could.  I feel guilty highlighting only a few of the outstanding presentations given over the two days, as each person was seemingly better than the next, but a few speakers particularly captivated my interest.

Saturday morning Harry Pavlidis from Baseball Prospectus and the Washington Post gave a fascinating talk about what makes a good changeup; after making the distinction that there are two different types of changeups a pitcher can throw, one that is about 7mph slower than the fastball that tends to induce weak contact and another version closer to 10mph slower meant to create whiffs from hitters.  He highlighted Brandon McCarthy as a pitcher who uses a “faster” changeup to get ground balls and mentioned Nationals Stephen Strasburg as someone who uses the pitch for strikeouts.  In addition, he specifically pointed out Tampa Bay starter Chris Archer as an interesting pitcher to watch in the future as his changeup matures in the big leagues. 

Immediately after lunch Saturday Dr. Glenn Fleisig spoke about the biomechanics of the delivery, explaining how injuries to the ulnar collateral ligament, which notoriously leads to Tommy John surgery, and SLAP tears in the shoulder occur from flaws in a pitcher’s mechanics.  He also explained how other various minor imperfections in a pitcher’s motion, such as a short stride length or placement of the head at ball release can directly impact both velocity and future injuries.   I could write an entire article just on his speech, as he made me a much smarter baseball fan in just a 30 minute presentation.

Later Vince Gennaro discussed his latest research project, in which he is trying to more accurately find potential positive and negative matchups for hitters by clustering pitchers of similar repertoires and styles, rather than relying on the rather limited and flawed sample sizes involved in one-on-one pitcher verses hitter matchups.  Mr. Gennaro makes quite the compelling case that grouping and examining the results in these larger numbers can more accurately predict future success.  This was probably my favorite speech of the weekend, and I am excited to keep track of the work he continues to do in this area.

I would be remiss if I did not mention the wonderful presentations Sunday by John Farrell and Brian Bannister, who were both quite candid in their question and answer sessions and gave incredible insights from unique perspectives inside the game.  Also I would like to personally thank the members of the Red Sox front office Jared Porter, Gus Quattlebaum, and Ben Crockett, who were extremely engaging and forthright during their question and answer session, then generously spent 5-7 minutes with me after their presentation discussing the fundamentals and finer points of scouting amateur hitters. 

Finally I would like to mention one of the student presenters, Rebecca Fishbein, who discussed the effect of Tommy John surgery on future fastball velocity.  After explaining that her original thesis arrived from reading athletes were having elective Tommy John surgery to increase their velocity and thus improve their chances at advancing in baseball, she determined that the surgery has little to no effect on future velocity and was essentially having elective surgery without much chance of future benefits.

In addition I want to give special mention to the Master of Ceremonies for the weekend, Dan Brooks from BrooksBaseball.net, who I was lucky enough to meet for a moment or two.  I also want to thank all the many new friends I made at the conference, and especially my friends Jim and Caitlin for their wonderful hospitality.  I highly recommend attending the Saber Seminar for any passionate, numbers-focused baseball fan, and I eagerly await my return in 2014.

As the minor league season rapidly heads towards its Labor Day conclusion, I thought this was an appropriate time to closely examine the Nationals farm system to determine my Top 10 prospects.  I have spent significant time in minor league parks this summer watching games, so I feel fairly confident in this list.

The Nationals farm system is currently in a state of flux, as the recent graduations of Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon, the ramifications of last season’s success, and the forfeiture of their 1^st round selection this summer has depleted much of the talent in the organization.  Ranked as one of the top farm systems just a few years ago, the Nationals system must now rank toward the bottom third in all of baseball.

My criterion for this list prioritizes the prospects’ possible ceiling, their potential value due to their position, their likelihood to fulfill their potential, and finally how far are they from contributing in the big leagues.  With that in mind, here are my current Nationals Top 10 Prospects.

****

Outside the Top 10

Jake Johansen RHSP, Jeff Kobernus INF/OF, Jason Martinson SS, Brandon Miller RF, Brett Mooneyham LHSP, Eury Perez CF, Tony Renda 2B, Tanner Roark RHP, Matt Skole 1B/3B, Sammy Solis LHSP, Steven Souza Jr. , and Drew Ward 3B

10)          Matt Purke        LHSP      High-A Potomac

A former overslot 3^rd round selection in 2011, Purke has battled shoulder injuries since being drafted, throwing less than 100 innings since signing with the Nationals.  Injuries have  likely ruined his chances to reach his ceiling as a #2 starter, the slim possibility he rediscovers his previously overpowering repertoire keeps him on this list.  

9)            Ian Krol               LHRP     MLB Washington

One of three prospects received in the Mike Morse trade last winter, Krol has flourished in his shift to the bullpen this season as his fastball now reaches 93-94mph.  Krol has shown the ability to get both righties and lefties out this season, meaning he is more than a specialist in the future.  He does not have the highest ceiling, but Krol should be a part of the Nationals bullpen for the next few years. 

8)            Zach Walters    INF         Triple-A Syracuse

The prospect received in return for Jason Marquis a few seasons ago, Walters has shown great power at Triple-A this season, slugging 28 home runs and 31 doubles.  Scouts are not impressed with his defense at shortstop, and his on-base percentage is sub-.300, but an infielder with this type of power should be an asset to a major league team in a utility role, perhaps as soon as 2014.

7)            Michael TaylorCF           High-A Potomac

A stellar athlete and potential above-average defender in center field, Taylor struggled offensively at the beginning of this year before improving at the plate in the second half of the year.  Taylor needs to get on-base more frequently and cut down on his strikeouts, but only 22-years-old, he still could develop into a starting-caliber player in a few years.

6)            Nathan Karns    RHSP     Double-A Harrisburg

Karns has followed his breakout 2012 season with another excellent season in the minor leagues and was fairly impressive in his brief audition in Washington.  Questions exist if he will serve as a #4 starter in the major leagues or a power reliever, but either way Karns is a major league quality arm that should help the Nationals in 2014.

5)            Robbie Ray         LHSP      Double-A Harrisburg

Coming off a mediocre 2012, this 21-year-old lefty has blossomed this season, first dominating High-A with a 3.11 ERA and 100 strikeouts in 84 innings before earning a promotion to Double-A.  Ray has a mid-90s fastball and the potential for two average off-speed pitches, and projects as a #4 starter in the major leagues. 

4)            Taylor Jordan    RHSP     MLB Washington

Yes, he stretches the definition of a prospect with his lengthy audition in Washington this summer, but for the purposes of the list I have included him.  A forgotten name in the system prior to 2013, Jordan bust upon the scene this spring, dominating both High-A and Double-A before forcing a promotion to the show.  Jordan has pitched so well he should enter the offseason as the favorite for the #5 starter spot in the rotation in 2014.  He projects as a good #4 starter in the majors.

3)            Brian GoodwinCF           Double-A Harrisburg

Goodwin has struggled this season at Double-A Harrisburg batting .254 with 9 home runs, but he still has the potential to be an above-average offensive and defensive major league centerfielder.  Struggling at Double-A as a 22-year-old is not uncommon, and with some adjustments and further refinement in the minor leagues Goodwin could be the Nationals centerfielder in 2015.

2)            A.J. Cole               RHSP     Double-A Harrisburg

Long one of my favorite prospects, Cole was inconsistent with flashes of promise in Potomac before earning a recent promotion to Double-A.  Since arriving in Harrisburg, Cole has flourished with a 1.73 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 26 innings pitched.  Cole has a mid-90s fastball with life, a promising but erratic curveball, and an improving changeup.  Only 21-years-old, Cole still has time to refine his breaking ball and delivery if he wants to reach his #3 or #4 starter ceiling. 

1)            Lucas Giolito     RHSP     Rookie GCL

The Nationals 1^st round pick in 2012, Giolito has returned in the past few weeks from last year’s Tommy John surgery and reports have his velocity back in the high-90s.  Giolito combines his powerful fastball with a devastating curveball and above-average changeup, and owns rare #1 starter type potential if he remains healthy.  Giolito has plenty of bust potential, but his immense potential is the reason he tops this list.

In honor of Tom Cochrane and wanting to spend yet another mild summer afternoon in the sun, Sunday I scouted the Frederick Keys, the High-A affiliate of the Baltimore Orioles, as they hosted the Myrtle Beach Pelicans, the High-A minor league affiliate for the Texas Rangers, at Harry Grove Stadium. 

I drove to Frederick eager to witness a stark contrast of starting pitchers, as the Keys featured knuckleballer Zach Clark, who was opposed by massive, hard-throwing right-handed pitcher Alec Asher.  I could not pass on the opportunity to watch a true knuckleballer in action from directly behind the plate.  These are my notes from Sunday’s contest, a game which Myrtle Beach dominated with a 6-0 victory over the home team.

Orioles Knuckleball Prospect Zach Clark

Zach Clark           RHP     Frederick

One of the very few knuckleballers currently pitching in professional baseball, Clark throws his knuckleball between 62-69mph, with the slower version moving downward like a split-finger and the faster knuckler tending to break more quickly and horizontally.  Clark also throws an 85-88mph fastball which he throws for strikes down in the zone.  He throws the knuckle ball about 70% of the time, almost exclusively when ahead in the count, and will throw the fastball mainly when behind the batter.  His delivery is relatively clean and simple, and he repeats it fairly well with both pitches.

Unfortunately Sunday Clark struggled to locate his knuckleball in the strike zone, especially in the first few innings, allowing the hitters to sit on his fastball while letting the knuckler float out of the zone.  His key, and the key for all knuckleballers, is the ability to control the pitch enough to throw it for strikes, which is extraordinarily difficult and the reason so few exist in the majors. 

That said Clark did show potential with the pitch during his 5 innings, throwing the occasional knuckler for a strike later in his appearance and inducing some awkward swings-and-misses from confused Pelican batters.  Clark faces the difficult challenge of taming the uncontrollable knuckleball if he hopes to reach the major leagues, but with a little improvement he has a chance to spend some time in the major leagues.  Baseball needs more knuckleball pitchers, so good luck to Zach in his climb toward The Show.

Alec Asher           RHP     Myrtle Beach

RHP Alec Asher

A physical, intimidating presence on the mound, Asher features a four-pitch mix consisting of a fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup.  Asher’s fastball Sunday was consistently 90-93mph touching 94mph with some life but was somewhat flat and lacking movement.  His above-average slider is perhaps his best pitch, sitting at 84-87mph with harsh downward tilt that he can locate for strikes.  In addition, Asher shows an occasional overhand 78-82mph curveball with potential and an 82-84mph changeup with some deception and armside movement. 

The 21-year-old is still inconsistent with the quality of his arsenal, but Asher has the potential to have two above-average pitches in his fastball and slider, and possibly an average curveball and changeup.  Considering his massive frame and with additional refinement in the minors, Asher projects as a durable, innings-eating #4 or #5 starting pitcher in the big leagues.  Asher should start 2014 in Double-A and could reach the major leagues sometime in 2015. 

Matt Hobgood     RHP     Frederick

2009 Baltimore Orioles 1st Round Pick Matt Hobgood

The Orioles 1^st Round pick, 5^th overall, in the 2009 draft, Hobgood has struggled with injuries in past seasons before being converted to relief this season.  Hobgood has thrived in the bullpen, as he started 2013 at Low-A Delmarva before recently receiving a promotion to Frederick.

Hobgood entered in relief of Clark in the 6^th inning and featured four pitches in his fastball, curveball, slider, and changeup in keeping the opposing batters off-balance.  His fastball was consistently 89-92mph on my radar gun, reaching 93mph, and showed some noteworthy armside movement and downward sink.

Now 23-years-old and strictly a reliever, Hobgood should consider focusing on only one breaking pitch, eliminate the other, and continue to only use the changeup as a “show me” pitch to keep lefties honest.  This decision could expedite his rise toward the big leagues.  Likely to fall short of the lofty expectations on a top draft pick, Hobgood seems to have found his niche in the bullpen, and has a legitimate chance to reach the majors as a reliever.

Others of Note:

Michael Ohlman     Catcher     Frederick

Although his calling card is his hitting ability, I was particularly impressed by Ohlman’s catching ability Sunday afternoon, as his skills were put to an extreme test by a wild knuckleball pitcher – Ohlman passed with flying colors, showing soft, quiet hands catching the ball, impressive agility blocking pitches in the dirt, and a strong throwing arm throwing out a runner attempting to steal second base in the 5th inning. 

Ohlman’s size works against him behind the plate, and he is still below-average defensively, but he deserves credit for making excellent improvement as a receiver this season.  Without question his bat will be the reason he reaches the major leagues, but with further refinement his defense should not hinder his progress to the big leagues. 

Jason Esposito     3B     Frederick

One of my favorite players from the 2011 draft, Esposito has disappointed since being drafted, and especially in 2013, hitting only .232/.282/.304 over 293 at-bats.  Sunday continued more of the same from this enigma, as he went 0-3 with 2 strikeouts, yet in his struggles he still showed good bat speed and a pretty swing at the plate.  The talent is readily apparent, but now 23-years-old and scuffling in High-A, Esposito needs to start turning his potential into production or risk never climbing the organizational ladder.