Looking Into The Future – Part 2 of Scouting the Frederick Keys and Potomac Nationals

Much like the masterful band Journey’s often overlooked second album, Looking Into The Future, I spent Labor Day weekend scouting the many talented prospects from the Frederick Keys and Potomac Nationals, the High-A affiliates of the Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals respectively. 

Yesterday in Part 1 of this series, I examined Nationals pitching prospects Paul Demny and Brett Mooneyham along with rehabilitating Orioles infielder Ryan Flaherty; today in Part 2 I highlight two of my favorite overlooked prospects, Michael Taylor and Tim Berry, who are not receiving enough attention from others around baseball.

Michael Taylor                 CF Potomac Nationals

Michael Taylor

One of the best pure athletes in the organization, the still raw 22-year-old Taylor has started to turn his skills into performance this season for Potomac, hitting .263/.341/.428 with 10 home runs, 41 doubles, and 86 runs batted in.  Taylor has quick hands, excellent bat speed, and has made a noticeable effort to stand taller at the plate this season to take advantage of this in order to make more solid contact. 

Defensively, Taylor has made improvements this summer making reads on balls off the bat, which combined with his above-average speed and solid throwing arm make him an asset defensively in center field.  He is also developing on the bases as well, stealing 51 bases this season in only 58 attempts.

The glaring weakness in Taylor’s game remains that he still strikes out far too often, specifically 128 times in 505 at-bats this season, and is particularly susceptible to high fastballs and off-speed pitches away.  That said he has made noteworthy and commendable progress this season improving his all-around baseball skills, and has just begun to scratch the surface of his immense talent.  Projecting a player to improve his ability to make contact is a risky proposition, but I see tangible signs Taylor is beginning “to get it”, and think he could be in store for a breakout season in 2014.

Tim Berry             LHP Frederick Keys

T Berry

Berry served as the starter for the Keys in their season finale Monday, and as he has done all season, he was impressive, pitching six innings and allowing three runs on seven hits and no walks and three strikeouts.  Berry, 22-years-old, has an impressive repertoire consisting of a 90-94mph fastball, a 74-75mph curveball with some slurvy-type movement, and an above-average 80-81mph changeup with late downward action.  A relatively skinny pitcher with projection remaining, Berry has a very quiet, clean motion and stays compact and square through his delivery. 

Berry was recently selected as one of the Orioles prospects to play in the Arizona Fall League next month, which should provide an excellent challenge as he will face some of the best hitting prospects in baseball in an offensive-friendly environment.  Berry likely starts next season in Double-A Bowie’s rotation, and as a lefty with three quality offerings, he has the potential to develop into a quality #4 or #5 starter in the big leagues, possibly as soon as mid-2015. 

Right-handed reliever Brian Dupra entered the game in mop-up duty on Monday for Potomac and caught my eye with his potent arsenal comprising a 93-96mph fastball with some armside run, an 80-83mph slider that he can locate for strikes, and an 82-84mph changeup.  A physically imposing figure on the mound at 6-3 200lbs, Dupra has been uneven at Potomac in 2013, posting a 4.96 ERA with 64 hits and 28 walks against 44 strikeouts in 61.2 innings pitched.  Bluntly, his stuff is much better than those results, as his pure stuff should overwhelm A-ball hitters.  Now almost 25-years-old, Dupra should receive a promotion to Double-A Harrisburg in 2014, and next season is critical to his career development path.

I am not particularly confident 23-year-old Potomac catcher Craig Manuel will ever develop into a professional caliber hitter, but he is quite proficient defensively, serving as a square, quiet target for the pitcher and shows an aptitude for blocking pitches in the dirt and throwing out potential base stealers.  A left-handed hitter lacking power, Manuel does a reasonable job making contact and possesses a career .365 on-base percentage.  If he can somehow manage to hit .240-.250 with a .310 OBP, his defense is good enough that he could find work as a major league backup in a few seasons.

A College World Series legend while attending South Carolina, right-handed pitcher Matt Price was the Orioles 7th round pick last summer; Price entered the game on Monday in the 9th inning to close out the victory for the Keys.  Price possesses a huge, stocky physique and throws from a three-quarters arm slot with some effort in his delivery, which provides deception to the batter.  Price throws an 89-92mph fastball with some late life and a 78mph slider that visibly fooled a hitter.  An experienced 24-year-old pitcher, Price should start next season at Double-A Bowie and has a chance to reach the majors as a reliever particularly effective against righties.

Cruising Up 270 – Scouting the Frederick Keys and Potomac Nationals

Choosing to avoid the standard traffic jams at the Bay Bridge on a holiday weekend, I decided instead to drive to Frederick both Sunday and Monday to scout the Keys as they hosted the Potomac Nationals.  Labor Day weekend marks the end of the minor league regular season, so neither a near monsoon Sunday night nor scorching hot temperatures Monday afternoon could keep me away from Harry Grove stadium. 

Even though the players could see the end of the season in their grasps like a secretary counting the minutes until 5pm, I was impressed by the effort level and hustle shown by both teams and the number of talented pitchers from each organization.  Because of the number of prospects on both teams, I have divided my notes from this series into two parts – Here is Part 1.

Nationals prospect Paul Demny

Nationals prospect Paul Demny

Paul Demny                       RHP Potomac Nationals

A thickly built Texan who looks bigger than his listed 6-2 200lbs. size, Demny was the Nationals 6th round pick in the 2008 MLB draft, and has a four-pitch arsenal consisting of a two-seam and four-seam fastball, a slider, and a changeup.  Demny throws a relatively straight but powerful 91-96mph four-seam fastball, along with an 86-90mph two-seam fastball with armside movement and some subtle sink.  For off-speed offerings Demny throws an uneven but promising 80-82mph slider with some tilt that he can locate for strikes, and an 83-85mph changeup which has splitter-type movement.

Demny has a slow, deliberate windup, and has a lot more activity during his delivery than is typically ideal, and could help explain his 51 walks in 120.1 innings pitched this season.  Recently 24-years-old, Demny has a major league quality arm, but if he does not cut down on the walks and improve his fastball location, he will struggle to rise through the farm system.  Perhaps a shift to the bullpen could hide some of his control issues and he can carve out a role as a major league reliever. 

Brett Mooneyham           LHP Potomac Nationals

LHP Brett Mooneyham

LHP Brett Mooneyham

A very large left-handed pitcher with room to add weight, Mooneyham was the Nationals 3rd round pick in 2012 from Stanford University. Mooneyham came out this year and pitched well at Low-A Hagerstown, posting a 1.94 ERA and 79 strikeouts in 93 innings before forcing a promotion to High-A Potomac a few weeks ago.

On Monday Mooneyham showcased his three pitch arsenal including an 89-92mph fastball which has some cutting action, an 81-83mph slider, and an 82-84mph changeup that fades away from right-handed batters.  Mooneyham has a unique pitching motion with extreme movement, almost turning his back to the batter during his delivery.  His motion does provide some deception to the batter (and me behind the plate), but the amount of moving parts causes his mechanics to misalign fairly quickly: this likely explains his 54 walks in 104.1 innings this season. 

There is a lot to like about Mooneyham, as his fastball has natural movement and he can throw it more than 90mph, but he looks raw on the mound for a 23-year-old and his delivery will make it difficult to ever pitch at a consistent level.  Mooneyham will be a name I remember for 2014, because if he can make some subtle tweaks to his motion this offseason, his #4 starter potential could quickly emerge.

Baltimore Orioles Infielder Ryan Flaherty

Baltimore Orioles Infielder Ryan Flaherty

Orioles’ infielder Ryan Flaherty was on a rehabilitation assignment in Frederick this weekend in an effort to get some at-bats before returning to Baltimore.  In his first two at-bats Sunday evening, Flaherty seemed to be consciously working the count to see some pitches, eventually struggling to catch up with velocity and swinging behind a 95mph and 96mph fastball from Demny for strikeouts. 

In his final at-bat of the evening, Flaherty ripped a single to left-center field on a 93mph fastball and resembled a major leaguer hitting off an overmatched High-A pitcher.  Maybe that at-bat was what Orioles officials wanted to see, as he was recalled to the majors early Monday morning.

The Orioles 7th round pick in the 2011 draft, left-handed pitcher Trent Howard served as the Frederick Keys starter on Sunday and showed a three-pitch mix including an 85-88mph (topping out at 90mph) fastball with some sinking action, an inconsistent 76-78mph slider, and a good 76-80mph changeup with fading armside action.  Howard always pitches from the stretch, and has a relatively simple, straightforward delivery though there is some effort involved in his motion.  Howard seemed to tire quickly during his outing, as his velocity decreased and the hitters started hitting him more squarely in the 3rd inning, leading me to believe his career is as a reliever.

Although the Orioles are currently using him in the rotation, the numbers say Howard should be a reliever as well, as he has a 0.62 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 29 innings as a reliever verses a 4.88 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 59 innings pitched as a starter this season.  For development purposes, it certainly makes sense to give him additional experience as a starter, but expect the Orioles to promote Howard to Double-A Bowie in 2014 and permanently shift him to the bullpen. 

Long-time personal favorite of mine Potomac outfielder Brandon Miller showed his skills over the course of this series, hitting a towering home run to left field Sunday night into a breeze and flashing his quick bat on a double to right field Monday afternoon. 

In addition he impressed me with his above-average speed and defensive range in making an excellent running catch in the right field corner on Monday and showed off his monster arm throwing out a runner at second base from the warning track on the fly.Miller still whiffs far too often, accounting for four strikeouts in two games, but if he can improve these contact issues, he has a chance to reach the major leagues in a few years.

Tomorrow I will return with Part 2, in which I will discuss Nationals outfielder Michael Taylor and Orioles pitcher Tim Berry amongst other prospects.

A Walk Down Nationals Memory Lane – Remembering Jose Vidro

If you played fantasy baseball during the early 2000s, you might remember the subject of this month’s Time Capsule, Jose Vidro, as the underappreciated middle infielder you drafted in the middle rounds that helped you win your league.  A 3-time All-Star and the 2003 Silver Slugger award winner at second base, Jose Vidro was one of the best pure hitters in Montreal Expos history.

Drafted by Montreal in the 6th round of the 1992 Draft, Vidro spent four seasons maturing in the minor leagues before finally appearing in The Show on June 8, 1997.  After spending 1997 and 1998 as a part time player, Vidro became the Expos starting second baseman in 1999, hitting .304/.346/.476 with 12 home runs in 140 games played.  Vidro followed up that successful season with a .330/.379/.540 batting line, 24 home runs and 97 runs batted in, en route to his first All-Star appearance in 2000.

Vidro continued his excellent play in 2001, playing 124 games for Montreal while batting .319/.371/.486 with 15 home runs and followed that success in 2002 with a .315/.378/.490 batting line with 19 home runs and 96 runs batted in and his second All-Star game appearance.  2003 saw more of the same from this slugging middle infielder, as Vidro hit .310/.397/.470 with 15 home runs and 65 runs batted in, as he appeared in his 3rd All-Star game and won his first Silver Slugger award.  In his final season in Montreal, Vidro continued as one of the best hitters in baseball, batting .294/.367/.454 and 14 homers in 110 games played.

The move from Canada was not particularly kind for Vidro, as he only played in 87 games in 2005, providing the inaugural Washington Nationals with a .275/.339/.424 and 7 home runs in an injury-filled season.  Vidro rebounded in his second year in Washington, playing in 126 games and hitting .289/.348/.395 and another 7 home runs. 

Deciding to begin a youth movement in Washington, the Nationals traded Vidro on December 14, 2006 to the Seattle Mariners in exchange for outfielder Chris Snelling and right-handed pitcher Emiliano Fruto.  While neither Snelling nor Fruto were much to speak of for the Nationals, Vidro was solid in his first season with the Mariners, hitting .314/.381/.394 over 147 games in 2007, primarily as Seattle’s designated hitter. 

The following year was not nearly as successful, as injuries and the cumulative toll of many seasons playing on the poor turf field at Olympic Stadium in Montreal caused Vidro to struggle offensively: he finished the season hitting .234/.274/.338 with 7 home runs in 85 games before being released by Seattle on August 13, 2008.

Although Vidro has not formally retired from baseball, he has not appeared in a game since his release in 2008.  Vidro finishes his 12-year major league career as a .298/.359/.445 hitter with 128 home runs and 654 runs batted in.  His stay in Washington was relatively short, but fans should remember Jose Vidro as one of the most underrated players of the previous decade, a true Montreal Expos legend, and the original second baseman for the Nationals franchise.

This article was also published at RedPorchReport.com.

The Washington Nationals Trade Catcher Kurt Suzuki to Oakland

Late Thursday evening the Washington Nationals agreed to trade catcher Kurt Suzuki and cash considerations back to the Oakland Athletics in exchange for right-handed pitching prospect Dakota Bacus.  To fill Suzuki’s spot on the roster, the Nationals are expected to recall Jhonatan Solano from Triple-A Syracuse before Friday’s game in Kansas City.

Washington acquired Suzuki last August to bolster their catching depth after sustaining injuries to both Wilson Ramos and Jesus Flores, receiving him from the Athletics for catching prospect David Freitas.  Fast forward a year and now the Athletics find themselves with injuries to both of their catchers, John Jaso and Derek Norris, which quickly necessitated Oakland finding depth at the position as they chase a playoff berth in the American League West.

The 29-year-old Suzuki struggled offensively this season, batting only .222/.283/.310 with 3 home runs and 25 runs batted in 79 games over 252 at-bats.  However, Suzuki is better known for his valuable defensive skills behind the plate, especially his ability to block pitches in the dirt, and work with pitchers.  Not to mention Suzuki did a nice job for Washington last season, batting .267/.321/.404 with 5 home runs and having many clutch hits down the stretch.  Washington held a team option for Suzuki in 2014 at $8.5 million, but the Nationals were uninterested in exercising it with Ramos projected as the starting catcher for the next few seasons.  

Ever since Ramos has returned from the disabled list, consistent playing time has been difficult for Suzuki to find, making this trade an understandable decision by the Nationals.  The team still has catchers Solano and Sandy Leon on the 40-man roster, and must decide in the final weeks of the season if they can sufficiently serve as Ramos’ backups in 2014.  This additional evaluation time for these two at the major league level is yet another positive of this trade.    

In return for Suzuki, the Nationals received 22-year-old right-handed pitcher Dakota Bacus, Oakland’s 9th round pick in the 2012 draft from Indiana State University.  Bacus has spent 2013 at Low-A Beloit going 9-5 with a 3.56 ERA over 121.1 innings pitched, with 124 hits allowed, 38 walks, and 90 strikeouts.  Bacus features a low-90s fastball, a slider that scouts rate as a plus pitch, and a useable changeup, which along with his impressive 6-2 205lbs. size could allow him to remain a starting pitcher.  Some have speculated a move to the bullpen could be in his future, as he could find a bit more velocity in shorter bursts and become a two-pitch (fastball and slider) reliever.  Either way, Bacus is an interesting prospect and a nice return for only five weeks of Suzuki’s services.

This trade essentially tells diehard Nationals fans what we have already known for weeks, that this World Series or Bust season is ending up a failure as the team will miss the playoffs.  Understanding Suzuki did not have a future with the organization beyond this season, Mike Rizzo was wise to save some money, pick up an intriguing prospect to add to the farm system, and make a classy gesture to Suzuki by sending him to a contender for the rest of the season.   Although Nats fans wish the roles were reversed and the team was adding quality players for the playoff chase, give the Nationals front office credit for properly recognizing the situation and looking to improve the organization in the future. 

NatsGM Overall Grade  ->        B