Now that the Boston Red Sox and the St. Louis Cardinals have won the American League and National League pennants respectively, elsewhere in baseball the 2013 free agent class has begun to take shape.   The major initial themes for this offseason include where Yankees superstar Robinson Cano signs, the depth of available catchers and corner outfielders, and the number of quality back-of-the-rotation starting pitchers filling the market.  Certainly critics will accurately point to the lack of an Ace-level pitcher like C.C. Sabathia or Cliff Lee as in previous years, but this class has plenty of #4 and #5 starting pitchers. 

Last week in Part 1 I analyzed nine of the premier free agent position players available in this year’s free agent class.  Today in Part 2, I examine some of the top free agent starting pitchers and attempt to prognosticate where they will pitch next season.

Pitchers

1)            Matt Garza                        RHP       Texas Rangers

In a market with pitching depth but little in terms of a true Ace, the soon-to-be 30-year-old Garza finds himself in the enviable position as the best available free agent starting pitcher.  Sporting a career 3.84 ERA over 1,182.1 innings pitched he is not the #1 or #2 starter he will be paid like this winter, but Garza is a good #3 and can improve any team’s starting rotation. The team that eventually signs Garza is an early favorite to win the “Worst free agent contract given during the offseason” award.

Prediction:                         Re-Signs with Texas, 5-years $82.5 million

2)            Masahiro Tanaka            RHP       Japan

Comparisons between Tanaka and Yu Darvish are natural as two young, dominant Japanese pitchers, but that is where the comparisons should end, as Tanaka simply does not have Darvish’s pure stuff.  That said, it only takes one team to believe Tanaka is the next Darvish, and sign him to a large contract on top of the expected exorbitant posting fee.  After posting a 20-0 record with a 1.24 ERA this past season in the Japanese League, look for Tanaka to match or exceed Darvish’s contract (6-years $60 million plus $51.7 million in a posting fee) from two years ago.

Prediction:                         Signs with New York Yankees, 6-years $66 million + $55 million posting fee

3)            Ervin Santana                   RHP       Kansas City Royals

Struggling through a terrible 2012 season with a 5.16 ERA over 178 innings, Santana was jettisoned by pitching-needy Anaheim to Kansas City last winter in an obvious salary dump.  Santana, however, flourished in his new surroundings in 2013, posting a 3.24 ERA over 32 starts and 211 innings pitched.  Only 30-years-old (31 in December) with no real history of injuries, Santana might get the most surprising contract this winter, probably in the range of 4-5 years at $13+ million per season.

Prediction:                         Signs with Los Angeles Dodgers, 4 years $52 million

4)            AJ Burnett                           RHP       Pittsburgh Pirates

After struggling for three seasons as a Yankee, the Pirates bought low on Burnett two seasons ago and have reaped the benefits of two outstanding seasons, posting a 16-10 record with a 3.51 ERA in 202.1 innings pitched in 2012 and a 3.30 ERA in 191 innings this year.  Almost 37-years-old Burnett is expected to receive a qualifying offer from Pittsburgh this winter, and decide between a return to the Steel City or announcing his retirement.

Prediction:                         Re-signs with Pittsburgh, Accepts Qualifying Offer 1-year $14.1 million

5)            Tim Lincecum                    RHP       San Francisco Giants

Remember when Lincecum won back-to-back National League Cy Young Awards in 2008 and 2009?  Well unfortunately that was four seasons and about 3-4mph on his fastball ago, and now Lincecum enters free agency as a 29-year-old coming off two consecutive disappointing seasons with a 5.18 ERA over 186 innings in 2012 and a 4.37 ERA in 197.2 innings pitched in 2013.  One of the more interesting and unique free agents in recent memory, odds are Lincecum and the Giants eventually agreeing to terms.

Prediction:                         Re-signs with San Francisco, 2-years $24 million plus incentives

6)            Ubaldo Jimenez                               RHP       Cleveland Indians

Only three years ago at age-26 Jimenez finished 3^rd in the National League Cy Young voting based on his 19-8 record, 2.88 ERA, and 214 strikeouts in 221.2 innings pitched for the Rockies.  Then Colorado suddenly parted with Ubaldo, sending him to Cleveland and his career imploded in the American League, as he gave the Indians a 5.10 ERA in 2011 and a 5.40 ERA in 2012.  However after a few mechanical adjustments early this season, Jimenez rejuvenated his failing career, providing the Indians with a 3.30 ERA and 194 strikeouts in 182.2 innings this past season.

A truly perplexing pitcher, Jimenez has as much boom or bust potential as any free agent in recent memory.  Only 30-years-old, it will be fascinating to see which major league team gambles on his immense talent this offseason by signing him to a hefty, multiyear contract.

Prediction:                         Signs with New York Mets, 4-years $47 million

7)            Hiroki Kuroda                   RHP       New York Yankees

Like a fine wine Kuroda only gets better with age, giving the Yankees another strong season in 2013 with a 3.31 ERA and only 191 hits allowed over his 201.1 innings pitched.  Kuroda will turn 39 prior to Opening Day, and will cost a draft pick as compensation for signing elsewhere this winter, so his market will be extremely limited; this likely means Kuroda either returns to the Bronx for another season in 2014 or elects to retire.

Prediction:                         Re-Signs with the Yankees, 1-year $16 million

8)            Bronson Arroyo                                RHP       Cincinnati Reds

Bronson Arroyo is one of the most consistent pitchers in major league baseball, pitching 199+ innings in nine consecutive seasons.  A 36-year-old pitcher with a career 4.19 ERA and a track record of durability, Arroyo should be seeking a comparable contract to what Ryan Dempster signed last winter (2-years $26.5 million) from a contender in need of a veteran to round out their rotation.

Prediction:                         Signs with Atlanta, 2-years $26 million w/ a 3^rd year vesting option

9)            Ricky Nolasco                    RHP       Los Angeles Dodgers

Nolasco has spent the past few years grinding away with little recognition or run support for the lowly Marlins, but should be a popular name in free agency as a solid #4 starter.  Nolasco would be wise to stay in the National League, preferably in a pitcher’s park, and has indicated a desire to sign with a team on the West Coast. 

Prediction:                         Signs with Anaheim, 3-years $33 million

Now that we have had time to decompress from the Nationals disappointing season and the World Series just a few days away, I thought this would be an excellent and appropriate time to analyze some of the best free agents available this winter and attempt to predict the terms of the contracts they will sign.  Although this class of free agents is not as deep as some years, there is depth at the corner outfield positions, a few quality catchers available, and a number of quality back-of-the-rotation starting pitchers.

Because of the sheer number of free agents available this offseason, I have broken up this piece into 2-parts – Today in Part 1, I highlight nine of the best free agent hitters available. 

Hitters:

1)            Robinson Cano                 2B           New York Yankees

Cano is clearly the best free agent in this class, and one of the most unique and talented free agents to hit the market in many years.  An above-average defensive player at second base with a .309/.355/.504 batting line over his 9-year professional career, the almost 31-year-old hitter is in line for a monster contract this winter, though he will likely fall short of his desired 10-year $300 million contract.

Prediction:                         Re-Signs with New York Yankees, 8-years $215 million

2)            Jacoby Ellsbury                CF           Boston Red Sox

A supremely talented, but often injured centerfielder, Ellsbury has a career .297/.350/.439 batting line and finished 2^nd in the AL MVP race just two years ago.  Only 30-years-old and plays a premium defensive position, Ellsbury will likely angle for a contract similar to the one Carl Crawford signed with Boston in 2010.

Prediction:                         Seattle Mariners, 7-years $145 million

3)            Shin-Soo Choo                  OF          Cincinnati Reds

An underrated player with a career .389 on-base percentage, the 31 year-old Choo will have plenty of suitors this winter.  After playing center field rather poorly for Cincinnati in 2013, expect Choo’s next team to shift him back to a corner outfield position.  With power and on-base percentage at a premium in the major leagues, expect Choo to have his choice of 4-year contract offers, with the team that gives him a 5^th year likely signing the talented outfielder.

Prediction:                         Pittsburgh Pirates, 5-years $80 million

4)            Brian McCann                   C             Atlanta Braves

One of the most consistent and excellent catchers in the past decade, McCann enters free agency as a 29-year-old with a career batting line of .277/.350/.473 and six consecutive seasons of 20 or more home runs.  With numerous big-market teams seeking upgrades at catcher this winter including the Red Sox, Yankees, and Phillies, McCann should sign one of the biggest free agent contracts this offseason.

Prediction:                         Toronto Blue Jays, 5-years $75 million

5)            Carlos Beltran                   OF          St. Louis Cardinals

Somehow underrated after an outstanding 16-year major league career, Beltran signed with St. Louis two seasons ago and was terrific for the Cardinals, hitting .269/.346/.495 with 32 home runs in 2012 and hit .296/.339/.491 with another 24 home runs in 2013.  Not to mention Beltran has built the reputation as one of the best postseason players in baseball history.  Entering free agency at 37-years-old, Beltran will have a more limited market than many of the other stars in his class, but Beltran will likely select between various 2-year offers from various contenders.

Prediction:                         Re-signs with St. Louis, 2-years $29 million

6)            Mike Napoli                       1B           Boston Red Sox

Although his days as a catcher are behind him, Napoli produced an excellent season in Boston this season, producing a .259/.360/.482 batting line while playing solid defense at first base.  A right-handed slugger in a market devoid of much power, or depth at first base, Napoli should have at least five to seven teams attempting to secure his services. 

Prediction:                         Re-signs with Boston, 3-years $37.5 million

7)            Jarrod Saltalamacchia  C             Boston Red Sox

Saltalamacchia enters free agency as a 28-year-old catcher with the resume as a good defender, a quality switch hitter with power, and an excellent clubhouse leader.  He will have many suitors this winter as numerous teams are seeking a starting catcher, but his greatest value is likely to the Red Sox, which is why he stays in Beantown.

Prediction:                         Re-signs with Boston, 4-years $41 million

8)            Jose Abreu                          1B           Cuban National Team

The 26-year-old right-handed power hitter, and top hitter in Cuba’s baseball league, defected from his country this past August and can sign with any major league team this winter.  Because of his age, his salary will not count against team’s international bonus pool money, making him a “true” free agent.  With rumors of an above-average hit tool, and massive power, Abreu is likely the top free agent first baseman this offseason, and his suitors should include the Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, and Texas Rangers.  

Prediction:                         Texas Rangers, 5-years $70 million

9)            Curtis Granderson           OF          New York Yankees

Following back to back 40+ home run seasons in 2011 and 2012, Granderson suffered a fractured forearm in spring training and would only play in 61 games in the 2013 season.  Capable of playing all three outfield positions, the 32-years-old Granderson is a career .261/.340/.488 hitter.  Granderson should still sign a hefty contract this winter, although probably for half of what he would have received 12 months ago.

Prediction:                         Kansas City Royals, 3-years $48 million

I will return tomorrow with Part 2, previewing the top pitchers available in free agency this winter.  Thank you for reading and please continue to spread the word.

My friends at Citizens of NatsTown were kind enough to invite myself, along with District Sports Page‘s Alyssa Wolice, and The Nats Blog‘s Joe Drugan, to co-host their super-sized season concluding Podcast.

We covered all the major topics in NatsTown, in particular the highs-and-lows from the 2013 season, the current managerial search, and previewed the offseason.  You can listen to the full recording at the link below, enjoy!
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http://archive.org/download/CitizensOfNatstown/EndOf2013.mp3

After beginning 2013 as a relative afterthought to pitch in Washington, Tanner Roark has captured the attention of NatsTown as one of the most pleasant surprises in a rather disappointing season.  After posting wins in seven of his first eight decisions, not to mention his wild haircut and the unique pronunciation of his last name (Row-ARK), Roark has quickly gone from a relatively unknown pitcher in the Nationals’ organization into one of the more intriguing characters on the pitching staff.

Acquired along with Ryan Tatusko from the Texas Rangers in exchange for Cristian Guzman back in July 2010, Roark was not always a highly-valued prospect within the Nationals’ organization.  After struggling through a difficult 2011 at Double-A Harrisburg with a 4.69 ERA over 117 innings, Roark was then promoted to Triple-A the following season and had a rather forgettable year with a 4.39 ERA and 161 hits allowed in 147.2 innings pitched. 

However this season at 26-years-old Roark enjoyed a breakout performance in his second year at Triple-A, posting a 3.15 ERA and 84 strikeouts against only 20 walks in 105.2 innings pitched.  His consistent excellence, combined with numerous injuries to the major league rotation, forced his promotion to Washington in early August.  Roark has capitalized on his opportunity late in the season, posting a stunning 1.51 ERA over his 53.2 innings pitched.  Still somewhat skeptical of his breakout performance in 2013, I decided to do an Armchair Evaluation of Tanner Roark’s final start of the season last Sunday.

In his final audition of the season against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Roark continued his brilliance, pitching seven innings and allowing one run on three hits with three strikeouts against only one walk.  According to my notes Roark threw 95 pitches in his outing, 75 for strikes and only 20 for balls, consisting of 57 fastballs (60%), 22 sliders (23.2%), 15 curveballs (15.8%), and one changeup (1%).  Roark overwhelmed the Diamondbacks’ lineup getting 16 groundouts against only one fly ball out and threw first-pitch strikes to 19 of the 27 batters he faced. 

Roark featured an above-average sinker which averaged 92.88mph, topping out at 94.28mph, a solid 82-84mph slider which reached 85.47mph, an overhand 74-76mph curveball, and the rare 82mph changeup. (Thanks BrooksBaseball.net)  Roark’s delivery has a bit more effort than might be ideal, but there is plenty of deception in his motion and he repeats it fairly well.  In addition, as evidenced by the one walk allowed in this appearance and his 1.8 BB/9 ratio this season, Roark shows good command and control of the strike zone. 

The only real criticism of Roark’s performance Sunday was the lack of swings-and-misses he produced from Arizona hitters, inducing only five over his 95 total pitches.  The lack of whiffs makes some sense, as Roark purposely pounds the strike zone, lacks a blazing high-90s fastball, and possesses only average breaking pitches.  As he did Sunday, Roark relies on generating groundball outs and limiting his walks allowed, but only posting a 6.7 K/9 ratio this season (and notching only three strikeouts on Sunday) is a slight reason for concern going forward.  

After savoring every pitch of the last game of the Nationals’ 2013 season and putting Roark under a microscope, I am excited about his future.  Certainly his lack of a monster fastball and overwhelming breaking pitches limits his ability to generate a large number of whiffs, and ultimately limits his ceiling to that of a #4/#5 starter or quality relief pitcher.  That said Roark understands these weaknesses and pitches to his strengths, namely throwing quality strikes and producing a large number of ground balls with his sinker. 

If it was up to me, I would permanently move Roark to the bullpen and use him as a high-leverage, multi-inning reliever in a Craig Stammen type role, throwing 85-110 innings per season.  As a reliever I believe he could find some additional velocity on his fastball and his ability to generate ground balls would be a tremendous asset with inherited base runners in the late innings. 

Roark will enter next spring training in competition with Taylor Jordan, Nate Karns, Ross Ohlendorf, and perhaps a free agent to serve as the team’s #5 starter, with the fall back plan likely involving moving him to the bullpen.  Either way, Roark proved in Sunday’s start and during the course of his 53 inning audition that he is a quality, major league caliber arm who should be an asset in the future either as a starter or in relief.